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Author Topic: Predict October Surprises for the U.S. election..
NDP Newbie
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posted 09 April 2004 10:55 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1. Powell or Guiliani becomes Bush's running-mate as oppoosed to Mr. Liability. (So that would be a September Surprise. Cut me some slack.)

2. Osama makes a sudden appearance as an "unlawful combatant".

3. The Senate somehow agrees to pass an anti-same-sex marriage amendment. Bush's administration takes credit, and Christian fundamentalists turn out in record numbers, giving Bush a near-landslide.

4. Bush pays off the Saud Family to launch a convincing-looking terrorist attack on American soil. The Chinese catch wind of the situation, and Bush gives them Taiwan in exchange for their silence. Meanwhile, Neil Bush continues fucking Thai whores c/o Jiang Zemin's son.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Northern54
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posted 10 April 2004 02:17 AM      Profile for Northern54     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It won't be a surprise to me if Osama is killed/captured next fall. Maybe even October 15. Republicans are good manipulators. We'll see how gullible/apathetic American voters are.
From: Yellowknife | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Anti-Totalitarian
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posted 10 April 2004 02:20 AM      Profile for Anti-Totalitarian        Edit/Delete Post
No matter what surprise may arise, the American people are screwed regardless. The choice is Bush or Kerry. Why can't the people make intelligent choices and vote out BOTH parties in favour of a party that would truly represent freedom and justice? The same goes for our woeful Canadian system.
From: somewhere in subspace | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 10 April 2004 02:44 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Garth Brasseur:
It won't be a surprise to me if Osama is killed/captured next fall. Maybe even October 15. Republicans are good manipulators. We'll see how gullible/apathetic American voters are.
For all we know, Osama bin Laden is in a holding cell somewhere in Pakistan, awaiting some staged "capture" to take place about a week before the U.S. vote.

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drgoodword
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posted 10 April 2004 03:34 AM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think, unfortunately, that another significant terrorist attack on American soil before the November elections is close to inevitable. From a realpolitik perspective, the political influence of the Madrid bombing (much of which, though, was probably related to the quasi-coverup/misdirection by the Aznar government, as opposed to the bombing itself) must be encouraging to the terrorist networks and their leaders.

Some people whom I've discussed this issue with have said that a terrorist attack in America prior to the election this year would rally people around Bush like in Sep/01, but I think the opposite would occur. Back then, terrorism of that scale was a new phenomenon for America, and Bush was never held responsible, particularly after his administration's aggressive response in invading Afghanistan.

But now, more than two years after 9-11, when the terrorist threat is an established fact, another attack would be seen, I think, as a failure of Bush's approach to terrorism, a failure of the "war on terror." While many would still rally around the Bush administration after an attack, more would abandon Bush for whatever Kerry offers as an alternative.

Even more devastating would be two terrorist attacks, perhaps one in the summer and another in the fall close to the election. A failure to prevent two terrorist attacks in this election year would completely finish Bush's chances for a second term.

I truly hope it doesn't take more innocent deaths to return America to the community of nations.


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Gir Draxon
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posted 10 April 2004 03:42 AM      Profile for Gir Draxon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
5. Iraq is still in chaos. Just before the election, Bush pulls all the troops anyways, and decalares the occupation a sucsess. Islamic theocracy ensues in Iraq.
From: Arkham Asylum | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 10 April 2004 12:58 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1. Iraq is still in chaos.

2. Bush wins because he is a War President

3. Four years of chaos ensue, American troops die at the rate of 40-50 per week.

4. Next Republican campaigns as having "a secret plan" to end the war in Iraq."


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
pogge
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posted 10 April 2004 01:10 PM      Profile for pogge   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by drgoodword:

But now, more than two years after 9-11, when the terrorist threat is an established fact, another attack would be seen, I think, as a failure of Bush's approach to terrorism, a failure of the "war on terror."

I think this nails it. The contents of the Aug. 6th PDB are spreading, along with the idea that the Bush administration was negligent in following up on the possibility of terrorist attacks on American soil. It's not a long step from there to the acceptance by more Americans of the idea that the invasion of Iraq made things worse, not better. I think another attack on American soil hurts Bush far more than it helps him.


From: Why is this a required field? | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 10 April 2004 01:22 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by albireo:
For all we know, Osama bin Laden is in a holding cell somewhere in Pakistan, awaiting some staged "capture" to take place about a week before the U.S. vote.

Exactly. I think it would be more of a surprise for me if he WASN'T trotted out a month or so before election day.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
beluga2
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posted 10 April 2004 02:37 PM      Profile for beluga2     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think another attack on American soil hurts Bush far more than it helps him.

Yeah, I think that might be true now, though it wouldn't have been a couple months ago. The reflexive rally-around-the-Commander-in-Chief effect has probably been weakened by the drubbing Dubya's taken recently. And since I've always maintained that bin Laden & his ilk want Bush to win, that might make an attack less likely to occur.

Of course, that presumes that al-Q is capable of accurately reading the American political mood. And since al-Q is a diffuse, non-centralized phenomenon, some isolated cell might try something anyway.

Of course, al-Q could just sit back and let Diebold's nifty voting machines do the trick and give Bush his four more years.

And I think the Repubs will whisk Osama out sometime in the early fall -- that way they can parade him AND Saddam around in cages on the top of the Shrub's campaign bus.


From: vancouvergrad, BCSSR | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
No Yards
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posted 10 April 2004 07:25 PM      Profile for No Yards   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Seems the Bush administration sees the potential sceptisim in a
From: Defending traditional marriage since June 28, 2005 | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
No Yards
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posted 10 April 2004 07:26 PM      Profile for No Yards   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Seems the Bush administration sees the potential sceptisim in a Bin Laden 2004 capture, and has called off the little drama!!

I don't know about anyone else, but this certainly sounds suspicious!

[ 10 April 2004: Message edited by: No Yards ]


From: Defending traditional marriage since June 28, 2005 | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
MT VIEW
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posted 15 April 2004 01:25 PM      Profile for MT VIEW     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the October Surprise will be the admission by most Republicans that the White House is lost. Why? Because of the stupid, over-reaching cynicism of Karl Rove and other Republican campaign officials.

They will run a campaign of cheap shots at Kerry, attempting to run on Bush's war record, ... against a guy who actually HAS one. It's not going to work. And when Bush ends up a bit behind, they're going to accelerate the flow of cheap shots, putting Bush even further behind. By the time they wake up and realize what the problem is, ... it will be way too late.

I think that by Oct 15 Kerry will be ahead by between 5 and 10 percentage points, and the dreadful realization will sink in that the die is now cast, and that there is no turning back.

And then the remaining Republican Presidential vote will start to shrink as marginal Republican supporters realize that the scam has cracked, it's going down, and the party is asking them to be among the last people in their neighborhood to stand up and say "I am voting for this BS!" It's all very well to get people to accept a POPULAR scam that's going to win. It's quite another thing to ask them to hop vote for a candidate who is not only playing foul, but LOSING at it!

What the final score, including Congress, will be depends on how much solidarity the Republicans can muster in the face of a certain defeat that was supposed to be an easy win.


From: Maple Ridge, BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Big Willy
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posted 16 April 2004 12:36 PM      Profile for Big Willy        Edit/Delete Post
1. Powell or Guiliani becomes Bush's running-mate as oppoosed to Mr. Liability. (So that would be a September Surprise. Cut me some slack.)


Powell would not take the VP spot, and Guilian will not be offered it, as he is a bit of a dick. Now the best people for the job besides VP Cheney would be Bill Owens of Colorado, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Tom Ridge or Pennsylvania, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, or even the maverick Norm Coalmen of Minnesota. Winning any of the last 3 states would help bush a lot, but I still think that Cheney has it unless something unforeseen happens such as another hart attack.


From: The West | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
quelar
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posted 16 April 2004 01:27 PM      Profile for quelar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1) Cheney will stay as VP unless he feels like stepping down. Otherwise he could easily ruin Bush's credibility by exposing how he handed Billions of Dollars over to Halliburton.

2) Osama shows up just in time for sweeps week...er I mean election time.

3) There is another terrorist attack on US soil, leftist Americans (all 5 of them) point out that US policy has helped to cause this. The other 290 Million think it's because they haven't been strong enough and invade Canada to point out that "soft" nations won't be dealt with lightly.

4) The US media, tired and sore from taking it so hard from the white house for the last four years turns on Bush, labels him (rightly) a liar, a warmongerer, a drug user, a moron, and overall a poor leader. Kerry wins by a few points after almost losing because those 5 leftist voted for Nader.

5) NOTHING changes. Despite Kerry being an "anti-war" activist, his wife is from a millionaire business family that he won't upset. He will continue the same expansionist US policies that got them into this mess in the first place, and terrorism will only grow as a problem.


From: In Dig Nation | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Rufus Polson
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posted 16 April 2004 02:29 PM      Profile for Rufus Polson     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've never seen any evidence of campaigns of cheap shots ever backfiring in American politics. Has it ever happened?
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'topherscompy
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posted 16 April 2004 04:44 PM      Profile for 'topherscompy        Edit/Delete Post
perhaps the october surprize will be the last minute 'thwarting' of a massive 'terrorist attack' that 'proves' bush has 'learned' from the 'intelligence failures' of his first year in the whitehouse.
From: gone | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
mothra-nyc
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posted 27 June 2004 12:27 PM      Profile for mothra-nyc   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It was said several presidents back that the US would have a series of ONE TERM President's followed by a revolution.
Lets see,
Kennedy,
Johnson,
Nixon,
Ford,
Reagan-Reagan,
Bush,
Clinton-Clinton,
Bush,
Kerry.....

From: nyc | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 27 June 2004 12:38 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by mothra-nyc:
It was said several presidents back that the US would have a series of ONE TERM President's followed by a revolution.
Lets see,
Kennedy,
Johnson,
Nixon,
Ford,
Reagan-Reagan,
Bush,
Clinton-Clinton,
Bush,
Kerry.....

Nixon was elected twice.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
nevertaken
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posted 27 June 2004 05:00 PM      Profile for nevertaken     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by NDP Newbie:

Nixon was elected twice.



And Kennedy would, most likely, have been re-elected.

From: Calgary | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 04 October 2004 01:20 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
************** bumpity bump **************

It's October, and the election is less than a month away. I'm wondering if there will be some "October Surprise", and fearing what it might be.

Could there be some kind of major attack just before the vote, like there was in Madrid? If so, would there be (stupidly) an upswing of support for Bush? Will Osama bin Laden be "captured"? If it a Kerry victory starts to look likely, what sort of shit will the Bush people pull?

I shudder to think about it...


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Stockholm
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posted 04 October 2004 01:37 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Let's face it. Al-Qaeda WANTS Bush to win since he is actually helping drive international support AWAY from the US. If it starts to look like Kerry could win, they will probably launch on attack on US soil, just to make sure that Bush wins.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
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posted 04 October 2004 02:24 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Osama bin Laden is discovered to be none other than Colin Powell. He is captured in his Baghdad hideaway, along with his confederate Ayman "Jacques Chirac" al-Zawahiri and a large cache of WMD.
From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
canadianpatriot
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posted 04 October 2004 02:40 AM      Profile for canadianpatriot     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Garth Brasseur:
It won't be a surprise to me if Osama is killed/captured next fall. Maybe even October 15. Republicans are good manipulators. We'll see how gullible/apathetic American voters are.

Bin Laden is probably already dead. the'yll come out with photos al la Hussien's son's


From: National Capital | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Crippled_Newsie
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posted 04 October 2004 07:56 PM      Profile for Crippled_Newsie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I forsee 4 or 5 terror attacks across the US that commence in late morning on the US east coast, about two hours after the polls open in California.

Whatever the US government does-- suspend the election, continue with it, delcare nationwide marital law-- anything officials do will give supporters of whomever loses cause to call the vote illegitimate. The polarization of the US will not, therefore, dissipate.


From: It's all about the thumpa thumpa. | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Jimmy Brogan
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posted 05 October 2004 04:03 AM      Profile for Jimmy Brogan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Wish:

The war between Bushco and the CIA results in a devastating leak. We've already seen two embarrassing intelligence reports leaked in the last few weeks. Maybe a true bombshell is coming?

Fear:

A phony smear on Kerry or Edwards involving mistresses or money or both.


From: The right choice - Iggy Thumbscrews for Liberal leader | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Coyote
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posted 05 October 2004 04:09 AM      Profile for Coyote   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by JimmyBrogan:

Fear:

A phony smear on Kerry or Edwards involving mistresses or money or both.


Won't work. You know what they say: Dead girls and live boys . . .

From: O for a good life, we just might have to weaken. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Crippled_Newsie
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posted 05 October 2004 08:07 AM      Profile for Crippled_Newsie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Coyote:
Won't work. You know what they say: Dead girls and live boys . . .

Dead Girls and Live Boys... wasn't that a band circa 1988?


From: It's all about the thumpa thumpa. | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 05 October 2004 10:04 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Kerry is innoculated against affair rumours by the 'intern smear'.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Pellaken1
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posted 05 October 2004 10:54 AM      Profile for Pellaken1     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
US turns to code red on the terrorist chart.
from there 1 of 2 things happens

A - 100's of muslims arrested
B - Boom


From: Gritland | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 25 October 2004 02:14 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
After some more thought, I think that the most likely "surprise" in the next week will be a foiled terrorist attacked (real or otherwise). There will be news conferences by authorities, arrests, displays of bombs, or perhaps biological or chemical weapons that were to have been used.

Haroo, Hooray
Bush saves the day!
And grateful voters re-elect him.

But then again, I was sure that they would plant WMDs in Iraq, and apparently they didn't...

[ 25 October 2004: Message edited by: Albireo ]


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remind
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posted 25 October 2004 02:44 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Too many people were watching for them planting wmd's for them to do it successfully. Also, there was that rumour that an attempt to do so was foiled.

I too think it will be Kerry's personal life in some way, or Edwards.

Edited to add: perhaps a Kerry affair, while married to his first wife, with a prominent feminest would be a possible?

[ 25 October 2004: Message edited by: remind ]

[ 25 October 2004: Message edited by: remind ]


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 25 October 2004 10:15 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe there won't be an October Surprise. Bush definitely needs one, but time grows short. If things go on as they are, he'll lose.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
venus_man
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posted 25 October 2004 10:34 AM      Profile for venus_man        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Screaming Lord Byron:
... but time grows short. If things go on as they are, he'll lose.

We certainly hope so. He has too much of the opposition, and there are too many people around the globe and in the US simply dislike him. You cannot be a president of the country in such circumstances. It is not in the interests of anybody including corporate and political America.The so dear to Americans image of the US as a freedom bringer is vanishing and if B.S. is re-elected it will disappear completely replaced by the totalitarian, religious fundamentalists state.
Though, on the other hand, we know that sometimes shit happens.


From: outer space | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 25 October 2004 10:38 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I still think he has something left over, though. Of course, there's always the Diebold Insurance Policy.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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posted 25 October 2004 10:39 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Over the past few days I've read a couple of odd little articles that suggest something nutty, even by Bushco standards: a joint US-Israeli major aerial attack on Iran, targeting supposed nuke sites.

quote:
According to White House and Washington Beltway insiders, the Bush administration, worried that it could lose the presidential election to Senator John F. Kerry, has initiated plans to launch a military strike on Iran's top Islamic leadership, its nuclear reactor at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, and key nuclear targets throughout the country, including the main underground research site at Natanz in central Iran and another in Isfahan. Targets of the planned U.S. attack reportedly include mosques in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan known by the U.S. to headquarter Iran's top mullahs.

http://www.lebanonwire.com/0410/04102002LW.asp

quote:
This time, friends, I have some very important news for all of you. Unlike the usual silly gossip that goes on around the White House, intermingled with loud praying, this is really news. We are about to embark on another war! Yes, it has been decided and carefully planned. Who are we going to war with? Iran. Background here: (I am taking this from a paper which I have to return)

http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1130.htm

quote:
Bulgaria's Defense Minister Nikolay Svinarov refuted reports that during his October 9 meeting with US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld they have discussed a possible attack on Iran.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=40699

And:

http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=2961

And this.

Could the Bush gang really be this crazy? And if so, I wonder what the timing would be? The weekend before the election so neither the media, Kerry nor the American public have any chance to think about it?

I really hope this is just tinfoil gossip.


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
hibachi
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posted 26 October 2004 12:06 AM      Profile for hibachi   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I have read some stuff that claims the Russians have moved some of their super-duper Sunburst missiles into Iraq and Syria to counter Israeli-American aggression.

Should Israel attack Iran, these nuclear missiles will render Tel Aviv into a glass parking lot.


From: Toronto, Ont. | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 26 October 2004 12:37 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by drgoodword:
Could the Bush gang really be this crazy?
I hope not but fear so. I'd also like to think that a new military attack launched by the U.S. just days before the election would be viewed as a blatant attempt by Bush to manipulate the electorate, and that it would backfire. But then again, fully 45-50% of the U.S. electorate are still prepared to vote for Bush after his huge ongoing fiasco in Iraq, so nothing would surprise me.

From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 26 October 2004 05:22 AM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Makes no sense. The US is barely able to fight the war it's got and, unlike Iraq, Iran has weapons and more weapons.
From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 26 October 2004 11:59 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Perhaps the only real "October Surprise" will be...

Massachusetts Liberals Win World Series


From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Agent 204
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posted 26 October 2004 12:03 PM      Profile for Agent 204   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by hibachi:
I have read some stuff that claims the Russians have moved some of their super-duper Sunburst missiles into Iraq and Syria to counter Israeli-American aggression.

Should Israel attack Iran, these nuclear missiles will render Tel Aviv into a glass parking lot.


That sounds like bullshit to me... at least I really hope it's bullshit. The Russians aren't crazy, you know.


From: home of the Guess Who | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
George Olds
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posted 28 October 2004 02:44 PM      Profile for George Olds        Edit/Delete Post
'Bush wins because he is a War President"

bwahahaha

Typo fer shure!

That should be war-mongering "president". Fits though, being head of a belligerent country and all.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged

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