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Author Topic: Dion: "Green Party is disappearing" - ouch
NDPundit
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posted 27 September 2007 01:15 PM      Profile for NDPundit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Apparently trying to dig himself out of a hole that is more apparent after a Quebec poll puts his Liberals at 11% to the NDP's 19% among francophone voters, Dion decides to punch his new best friends in the nose: URL=http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story.html?id=0785ee63-83aa-4659-a847-eb602cd6becd&k=73341]Dion says Greens are disappearing[/URL]

quote:
Dion said the Bloc Quebecois is losing support, the Conservatives are failing to gain ground, support for the New Democratic Party is volatile and the Green party is disappearing.


I can't imagine that Elizabeth May is too happy about this. Or maybe she is, if all she cares about is her own success in Central Nova. In which case, it's the rest of the real and principled Greens that should be upset about their new dance partner.


From: Green and Pleasant Land | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
quelar
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posted 27 September 2007 01:28 PM      Profile for quelar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
the only thing volatile about the NDP support is that it's ripping iself right from the core of former liberal voters in quebec.

And a great spiral it is!


From: In Dig Nation | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
-=+=-
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posted 27 September 2007 01:36 PM      Profile for -=+=-   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
quote:

I can't imagine that Elizabeth May is too happy about this. Or maybe she is, if all she cares about is her own success in Central Nova. In which case, it's the rest of the real and principled Greens that should be upset about their new dance partner.[/QB]

She's probably ecstatic. If the Greens wither she can join the Libs like Dosanjh et al. No more of this crossing the country with a bad hip as the underpaid leader of a fringe party.

She'll get a safe seat in Toronto, and perks of Parliament; while someone else does the heavy lifting.


From: Turtle Island | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
kropotkin1951
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posted 27 September 2007 02:08 PM      Profile for kropotkin1951   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
No she will want a safe seat in Nova Scotia since one of the main reasons she is running there is to be close to her aging parent.
From: North of Manifest Destiny | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 27 September 2007 07:30 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There is no safe Liberal seat in Nova Scotia
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
mimeguy
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posted 27 September 2007 07:55 PM      Profile for mimeguy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
In which case, it's the rest of the real and principled Greens that should be upset about their new dance partner.

There is nothing to be upset about. He was never OUR dance partner. He is Ms. May's 'dance partner' in Central Nova. He can say what he wants about the Green Party, it means nothing. It's the liberals who are disappearing from Quebec in terms of importance and that is as it should be.


From: Ontario | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 27 September 2007 08:32 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For Dion and the Liberals the intention of the deal with May was to colonize the small 'g' green branding.

Seems like ancient history now that Dion and the Liberals were setting themselves up to be the de facto party of green.

Just one of the things to go down in flames for Dion. [Small matter that it was supposed to be his biggest attribute.]

He'll go on trying to position himself there. but the green thing has been reduced to being just one aspect of the general 'strategy' of being Not Harper and the hollow claim of I/we will be the ones to stop Harper.

We'll never know for sure, but I think Liz has lucked out again: despite the danger [let alone lack of principle] in her waltz with Stephane, she's not going to have to pay for it... or I should say, the Green Party is not going to have to pay on her behalf.

Not directly at least. Because that waltz seems to have played a role in her deciding to go all or nothing in Central Nova, which costs the Green Party money and deprives them of the benefits her presence in southern Ontario and BC would have in increasing the Green vote share. [Her presence in Central Nova is going to have a very small spinoff effect on just a handfull of NS ridings.]

The less her media draw effect from being in the vicinity is used during the campaign- the more the Green vote share in Ontario and BC is going to be the same as before... with the consistent polling bump evaporating as it has in Quebec.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 27 September 2007 09:14 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
There is no safe Liberal seat in Nova Scotia

This is not really true.

The 2 Cape Breton seats are a dead zone for the Cons. So the strong NDP provincial vote share still leaves the Liberals far ahead in those two.

It's going to stay that way until the NDP works some new magic in Cape Breton. That could happen anytime, but is not anywhere on the horizon now.

It's conceivable that Cuzner or Eyking might step down after another election [and Eyking doesn't need the money].

But Cape Breton is not fond of Elizabeth May. And if the Liberal Party were to drop her in, it might convince enough people to switch to the NDP.

So, while there are indeed safe Liberal seats in Nova Scotia, there would be none for EMay.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 27 September 2007 11:15 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
Seems like ancient history now that Dion and the Liberals were setting themselves up to be the de facto party of green.

I remember that. They all wore green scarves and their leader has a dog named Kyoto. That's all that's really needed, right?


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 27 September 2007 11:35 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
(You know, this probably hurts the Liberals a lot more than it hurts the Greens.)
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
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posted 27 September 2007 11:58 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
How so?

The MSM echoed Dion as required. There's been no response from the Greens. So it worked - to whatever extent stealing some small percentage of a shaky 3% of voters can be considered a victory.


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Buddy Kat
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posted 28 September 2007 07:06 AM      Profile for Buddy Kat   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This is funny LOL...the Liberals are the party that seems to be disappearing, not the Green party.
I hope come election day the Greens turn their support to the NDP, and the sucked in Liberals do the same so the Neo-Con's are crushed like a gnat.

It would be about time that Canadians woke up and realized the Liberals are just a conservative insurance policy and if they want anything remotely resembling an honourable and trustworthy government the NDP is the way to go.


From: Saskatchewan | Registered: Sep 2006  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 28 September 2007 07:26 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Dion wasn't trying to poach Green voters.

He was trying to say that all the parties are having trouble in Quebec (?!), not just him.

His "I'm not a loser" shtick has as much chance of success as did Ricahrd Nixon's "I am not a crook."

All Dion is doing is calling attention to the bullseye on his forehead.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
mimeguy
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posted 28 September 2007 08:02 AM      Profile for mimeguy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Unless there really is an election this fall it is still a possibility that Dion won't even be liberal leader long enough to fight the next election. Personally I would prefer that because it would force Canadians to realize that having a nice guy for a leader doesn't change the party. Ignatieff or Rae as leader makes our job as Greens easier. In my humble partisan opinion.
From: Ontario | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Pogo
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posted 28 September 2007 08:14 AM      Profile for Pogo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't see the Liberals having a leadership review before the election. The risk with a minority parliament of going into a sudden election leaderless would be too great.

What it does remind me of is the the BC NDP under Bob Skelly. Great policy guy, crappy communicator. Just like people came out at the very end (Jack Munro and others) was that wanted to prevent a total bloodbath. Similiarly, I see the Liberals descending until some big names step in to stem the tide.


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Scott Piatkowski
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posted 28 September 2007 08:23 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by mimeguy:
Unless there really is an election this fall it is still a possibility that Dion won't even be liberal leader long enough to fight the next election. Personally I would prefer that because it would force Canadians to realize that having a nice guy for a leader doesn't change the party. Ignatieff or Rae as leader makes our job as Greens easier. In my humble partisan opinion.

So, mimeguy, do you think that would mean that the backroom deal in Central Nova would be off?


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 28 September 2007 08:29 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think the Liberals have Leadership reviews. But that's a technical point.

The question is whether he is pushed out or not. The LPC does not have a history of doing that.

But 2 years- even 1 year- is an awful long time to keep a lid on "its him or us" discussions.

Dion won't have very long before he has to give concrete evidence to his Caucus that he can get things on to a different track.

Otherwise, the serious risks that go with deposing him and choosing a new Leader are no worse than the clear and present risks of walking into the 2009 election with him.

But this is premature. First we have to see that he does indeed cave and vote for the Throne Speech.

The fact that his long term prospects are so daunting makes it at least plausible that he could decide he is best off with the Hail Mary pass: go for an election, and if events fall his way, they win.

But no one is going to be allowed to seriously delude themselves on the odds of that working. And the cost of failure is obvious: that he is definitely and quickly finished.

[ 28 September 2007: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 28 September 2007 08:34 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
I don't think the Liberals have Leadership reviews. But that's a technical point.

They do. During the Chretien years, Martin was constantly flirting with the idea of taking out Chretien in a leadership review (and no one would doubt that he had the votes to do it), but he always backed off.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 28 September 2007 08:53 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Big time thread drift, but that is the problem with leadership reviews that are not automatic.

An option for a leadership review looks nice in a Constitution. But the reality is that the process of gearing up to formally 'request' a leadership review is every bit as bloody and traumatic as simply drawing knives.

So it's Catch 22. In practice, the 'optional' leadership review is not the neat and tidy democratic question it was idealized as. You don't ask for one unless you are ready to bring out the knves.

Taht's the general point.

As to Dion and the LPC: if it comes to it, the mere asking of a review by more than voices in the margins will spell his end and be the means of his dispatch.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Pogo
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posted 28 September 2007 09:18 AM      Profile for Pogo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Just checked the Liberal constitution and the leadership endorsement ballot is only done at the convention following an election where the Liberals do not form a government.
From: Richmond BC | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 28 September 2007 10:16 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by mimeguy:
Unless there really is an election this fall it is still a possibility that Dion won't even be liberal leader long enough to fight the next election. Personally I would prefer that because it would force Canadians to realize that having a nice guy for a leader doesn't change the party. Ignatieff or Rae as leader makes our job as Greens easier. In my humble partisan opinion.

Oh I think whether the Liberals like it or not, Dion is going to be leader heading into the next election. Dion probably wouldn't actually be forced to resign unless it truly looks like the Liberals will lose thier place as one of the two governing parties of Canada.

For now, it only looks like that in Quebec. Across the rest of Canada, the Liberals haven't really weakened at all (at least in the polls).

[ 28 September 2007: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 28 September 2007 10:27 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Across the rest of Canada, the Liberals haven't really weakened at all (at least in the polls).

We have not yet seen a national poll taken since the byelections and all the accompanying bad publicity for the Liberals.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 28 September 2007 10:34 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
True.
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 28 September 2007 10:34 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And all it wil take is for BC and Ontario Liberals to feel they personally are more vulnerable with Dion remaining as Leader.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 28 September 2007 10:50 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
*thinking*

I guess it is a little deluded to think that the effects of a collapse in Quebec could be contained just within the province. I was just saying that at least up until now, we haven't seen the Liberals drop outside of Quebec. Indeed, they're actually rising in Atlantic Canada and holding steady in Ontario.


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 28 September 2007 10:57 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Liberals rise in Atlantic Canda [slightly] because its the one region the Cons are suffering, where the NDP has little traction outside Nova Scotia, and the Greens don't even have much of a single digit draw.

The Liberal Party of Canada has nothing in the tank now except the brand. That's no small deal- they can run a long way on just fumes. But the Atlantic region is the only place where even that solid brand is not showing at least some signs of problems [yet].


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
mimeguy
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posted 28 September 2007 02:29 PM      Profile for mimeguy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
So, mimeguy, do you think that would mean that the backroom deal in Central Nova would be off?

God I hope so Scott. Nothing would make me happier. But it is not my riding and I still support Ms. May as leader although naturally not in total agreement with everything the leadership does.


From: Ontario | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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posted 28 September 2007 04:37 PM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And how's the Liberal fund raising going?

Dion has the party by the balls. They can't even afford to run a good looking campaign, let alone a leadership convention right after.

Dion: The Only Affordable Liberal Leader.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
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posted 28 September 2007 09:54 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The Liberals rise in Atlantic Canda [slightly] because its the one region the Cons are suffering, where the NDP has little traction outside Nova Scotia, and the Greens don't even have much of a single digit draw.

Acadie-Bathurst?


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 29 September 2007 01:38 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yvon Godin in Acadie-Bathurst is an NDP anomalay in New Brunswick.

He demonstrates what the NDP could do in NB. But there is no question that for the polling numbers, and for presence in every other sense, he's very much an anomaly.

Yvon came in with the incredible 1997 NDP wave riding regional voter anger with the Chretien government and on Alexas coatails. Yvon attended right away to building an organization, so he weathered the 2000 election, and since then has done what incumbents do.

That plus the fact that Acadie-Bathurst is a good natural fit for the NDP.

But so is much of New Brunswick. Reams could be said on why the NDP is so marginal there, but for the purposes of this discussion it just as that way.

NL has had general bumps for the NDP, has elected NDP MPs, plus some more that got close; but the average over time vote share is pretty low there too.

In most ways I can think of Nova Scotia is not very different from the others demographically, culturaly, etc. But saying that it is hugely different for the NDP is an understatement.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 29 September 2007 07:41 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
But there is also a parallel at the provincial level. The NDP in Nova Scotia has 20 seats. It has zero in NB and PEI and just one in NL.

Also, the NDP has roots in Nova Scotia going back to 1940 when the CCF elected a federal MP from Cape Breton...there is nothing comparable in the other Atlantic provinces.

It is true that Yvon Godin is the only NDP MP in New Brunswick, but in the 2006 federal election the NDP popular vote in NB was 21% - more than in Ontario and only a shade lower than in Saskatchewan!! Whil the NDP wasn't close in any other seat, there was a very large NDP vote to build on in a few other ridings such as Fredericton.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 29 September 2007 10:16 AM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My knowledge of New Brunswick NDP politics is mostly second hand, but I have heard the criticism that Elizabeth Wier tended to focus the party on getting Elizabeth Wier re-elected. I don't know if that's fair, and perhaps someone else from New Brunswick could offer some perspective. Perhaps it is a trait of political leaders named Elizabeth (Wier / May).

It has been discussed elsewhere, but the interesting question is, how does the NDP repeat the Nova Scotia miracle in other places?


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged

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