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Author Topic: The power of the anecdote explained
Doug
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 44

posted 24 July 2008 04:50 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The reason for this cognitive disconnect is that we have evolved brains that pay attention to anecdotes because false positives (believing there is a connection between A and B when there is not) are usually harmless, whereas false negatives (believing there is no connection between A and B when there is) may take you out of the gene pool. Our brains are belief engines that employ association learning to seek and find patterns. Superstition and belief in magic are millions of years old, whereas science, with its methods of controlling for intervening variables to circumvent false positives, is only a few hundred years old. So it is that any medical huckster promising that A will cure B has only to advertise a handful of successful anecdotes in the form of testimonials.

How anecdotal evidence can undermine scientific results


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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Babbler # 4790

posted 24 July 2008 05:27 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Absolutely true. We often see this kind of thinking on rabble, where "anecdotal" tales are used to reinforce culturally imbued biases, and used as examples to make it appear that those biases have a "rational" basis.

For example, here, recent reports about a woman arrested in Dubai for alledgedly assaulting a police officer when he alledgedly caught her having sex on a public beach, were parlayed world over, and particularly in the west and used as an example of the excessively repressive sexual morals of societies with a Muslim majority population. No real comparative study was done of how these kind of incidents might be handled in the rest of the world, either by the press that released these reports or by their consumers, or by the people who republished the reports, and it was just accepted on faith that there was something peculiar and exceptional about the arrest that was then associated with Islam, and Islamic states, religious prudery, etc.

Collection of further information from a variety of sources assembled from the world over, from a variety of states, organized along varying lines, with varying cultural tradision, showed that there was nothing out of the norm about the arrest or the prohibition of public sex acts, and that many societies, even ones supposedly organized along secular lines actually met out stiffer penalties than were be considered by the state of Dubai in this case of assault against a police officer.

Anecdotes can be seriously misleading and their presentation as "examples" supporting an arguement, are often a matter of reinforcing predisposed biases, rather than an examples of serious inquiry. This problem effects sociology and anthropology as much as any other discipline, particularly among lay people where they often assert, quite unwittingly, the norms of their own society as the standard by which they judge things they do not understand, happening far away, among cultures and people they have not studied with any great interest, and so are quite gullible when recieving the anecdotal information, and accept it at face value, when it conforms to the generally understood common-knowledge prejudices that form the underlying ideology of the dominant culture of the society they inhabit.

The anecdote remains, as one among many "press reports", that appear suddenly and then disappear, that aid in creating a general negative stereotypes by constant repetion of negative stories that are presented as exceptional and strange. The general impression now embedded in the discourse, will be referred to variously and contribute to the general pool of anecedotes and "impressions", used by the "hucksters" who will summon these "succesful anecdotes" in order to reinforce the prejudices of the dominant culture to forward the agenda of the "hucksters".

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
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Babbler # 6289

posted 24 July 2008 05:48 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are you a "huckster" too cueball? As you really described your actions in numerous threads. In particular, I remember the one where you felt it was your right to use ancedotal information of your own, and then used it again to co-opt Olivia Chow's voice.

One should really be careful about tarring others, I.e. ALL babblers, for what one does oneself, eh?


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 24 July 2008 05:57 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
"Again" to co-opt her voice? Tarring "all" Babblers.

You just can't admit that you bought into a sensationalized by-line "sun" newspaper "sex-pot" piece, and thought you were engaging in some kind intelligent debate about sexism, sexual prudery and religion. What a farce.

Not to mention it was a great OP, which direcly described some of the real political conudrums that exist in UAE. But no, lets talk about repressive Muslim morals and how some rich British woman night on the town was ruined by the intervention of the police, as if that is the real story, not the actual power politics of war, oil and power and its relationship to the real life world of men and women living in Dubai, and have no hope of being deported to a relatively nice place like England.

What was more astonishing was that you never even thought of protesting the fact that Palmer was summarily fired by her British Employer, when she had not even been officially charged, because you were so busy flaunting your liberal superiority complex over the unwashed.

Not even a peep out of you on that. So much for defending the rights of women, you'd rather slam Muslims.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


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martin dufresne
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posted 24 July 2008 06:11 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I wonder about the notions involved here: in discourse that purports to be scientific, the notion of "anecdote" seems to have a built-in pejorative judgment.
When do reports of events , facts, observations become valid evidence of a pattern? Over a process of induction where the valid ones build up a coherent picture. But a single observation can be very important as a counter-example giving lie to the resulting picture, the budding theory. Should we dismiss it as "anecdotal"?
I think a more pressing problem with the media is their power to point readers/viewers a certain way - to frame the report of an event or fact at the exclusion of any control group or other context, in order to fuel or create a biased impression - as the Dubai newsstory did.
Corporations, ideologues and their representatives constantly flood news desks with pseudo news items in order to slant the barely-above-consciousness stream of "facts" and "stories" we come to consider as representative or as "reality." A friend of mine told me that the "Conseil du patronat du Québec" had their sole employee - a corporate flack - systematically make up and send out FOUR press releases a day to every newsroom in the province. Regardless of how much of these fluff pieces end up being printed or read on-air, the CPQ manages relatively effortlessly to steer business pages and editorials toward corporate interests and create an illusion of representativity and relevance. As for media barons, they are provided with an excuse not to assign real journalists to write actual news and analysis pieces about the business world.

From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 24 July 2008 06:14 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It does seem to be somewhat perjorative. And the purpose of this is partly to eliminate narrative as part of data. I say this even though I agree that selective used of limited anecdotal narratives can be a problem, but some sociologist attempt to eliminate anything but quantifiable statistics, by rejecting ancedotes (aka narratives) as scientifically valid. But really quite valuable information can be lifted from a quantity of narratives, especially when they can be shown to correlate between each other.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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Babbler # 11463

posted 24 July 2008 06:26 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, I don't think there ever is "a real story" as opposed to "anecdotes" or "opinions". My point is that it's all about who has the power to define the meaning of events. We know that the media are controlled by rich White adult males, so I think we are all entitled - especially members of subordinated groups - to try and regain some agency by trying to put our own spin on what we are told and sometimes can find out about what is going down.
So I disagree with your trashing remind about her attempt to point out what can perfectly be construed as an example of the repression of women in a Muslim locale - what you and I know to be a huge problem in UAE.

From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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Babbler # 4790

posted 24 July 2008 06:30 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well no. There was nothing in the story that demonstrated any substantive difference between how this case would be handled in Canada, or any other country. There was nothing particularly Muslim about it.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


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Michael Hardner
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Babbler # 2595

posted 24 July 2008 06:34 PM      Profile for Michael Hardner   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
We know that the media are controlled by rich White adult males.

As supported by anecdotal evidence....


From: Toronto | Registered: May 2002  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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Babbler # 11463

posted 24 July 2008 06:42 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
As supported by anecdotal evidence....
No, there is actually much comparative research establishing that pattern, but then I wouldn't expect someone with your positions to be up-to-date on it.

From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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Babbler # 11463

posted 24 July 2008 06:44 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Cueball, repression of women IS a huge problem in the United Arab Emirates. That is the last point I made, and I am sure you don't "Well, no" that one.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: martin dufresne ]


From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Michael Hardner
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Babbler # 2595

posted 24 July 2008 06:46 PM      Profile for Michael Hardner   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Random thoughts....

How does a society learn things ?

Some ways:

It looks to leaders to frame problems, explain them, and lead them to solutions.

It informs itself in some way, often through narrative, and forms an opinion.

People talk and debate amongst themselves...

And.... we're all susceptible to bias, flaws in logic, subjectivity, simple mistakes and so forth.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Narrative has a place, but it's overused today by political leaders.

I look to the 20th century as a time when society seemed to make some real social progress.

Some of the things that helped us learn:

Leaders that espoused dialogue and discussion.

Discussion of ideas, not personalities.

A desire in regular people to talk about difficult issues.

An arts community that confronted social issues in a way that called on people to come together to solve them.

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

Politics today is a vanity project that encourages people to put on another type of identity, rather than to engage with people who hold the opposite opinion.


From: Toronto | Registered: May 2002  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 24 July 2008 06:52 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by martin dufresne:
Cueball, repression of women IS a huge problem in the United Arab Emirates. That is the last point I made, and I am sure you don't "Well, no" that one.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: martin dufresne ]


This may be the case, but this case does not exemplify that. It does not show that Dubai is exceptional in comparison to Canada, or to almost any other country in the world.

However this story was framed in a manner that was both sexist, and racist. First of all, most of the attention of the press was focussed on the sexual antics of the acccussed, in the manner of a traditional "sex-pot" story, wherein the fact that Palmer was charged with "assault police" was burried in favour of stating that she was possibly facing six years in jail for having "sex on the beach." Additional to this, the fact that Palmer was summarily fired, before she had even been charged by her British employer was passed over without comment. This is the only punishment, she has thus far received. But for some reason this story was framed as being about repressive Muslims prudishly repressing public sex, and metting out overly harsh sentences for illicit sex.

Here, a number of persons, (in the first case) simply ignored the overt sexism of the British press and the behaviour of the Palmer's British employer that denounced her publically and then fired her, when she was technically not even charged with a crime. I highly doubt a male executive would have been fired summarily in this case, at least not until an infraction was proved -- but the "wicked woman" had to go.

Rather than these issues, commentary instead focussed on the proposed rigid and puritanical oddities of Muslim culture. This was absurd since you could easily end up being copped for sex on a public urban beach in almost any country in the world, and theoretically face very long jail terms for assaulting a cop. Regardless, the only portion of the story that seemed to be of interest was the Muslim spin on the story.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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Babbler # 11463

posted 24 July 2008 07:01 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
This may be the case, but this case does not exemplify that. It does not show that Dubai is exceptional here in comparison to Canada, or to almost any other country in the world.

I have to get back to a lengthy job so this will be my last peep.
Faulting a piece of writing for what it doesn't say is one of the hallmarks of bad criticism.

From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4790

posted 24 July 2008 07:10 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What is missing entirely from most of the readings of this story so far is the fact that Palmer is more than likely going to get off easy because her status a rich white European expat, and this gives her privilege, and the UAE actively supports and encourages the existence of this privileged group in its midst for entirely political and economic reasons to do with the power politics of the region. It may very well be that local women, or non-western women would be treated far more harshly than Palmer will be, because of the officially sanctioned caste system that seems to be functionally present in the UAE.

So in fact the sexism, which you are asserting exists in the UAE (not evidenced by this case at all, except in how it was handled by the western press) may in fact exist in the way society is managed in the lower strata, but not in how relatively privileged expats are treated. So in fact, this story is probably far more about the expressed racism of power dynamics in the middle east than it is about latent or expressed sexism in Islamic culture.

This possible reading can easily be deduced by anyone who seriously engaged the OP story which outlined the “Cantonization” of the UAE very well. Why this reading of the Palmer story has not been examined in this context in favour of the anti-Muslim trope framed by the British press is beyond me.

ETA: And by the way, I didn't start bashing Remind, until she started trashing me, in her off topic rant about Olivia Chow, and various other things I have purportedly done to offend her.

[ 24 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 25 July 2008 06:14 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cueball:
So much for defending the rights of women, you'd rather slam Muslims.
Attack to defend, eh cueball? I never once slammed Muslims, so you can take that nonsense and give it a rest, or post exactly what you believe I said to slam Muslims and send it to the moderators for actioning.

Not even going to bother with your trying to make a case of me not defending the rights of women, because you allege I willfully made no comment about her being fired..


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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Babbler # 4790

posted 25 July 2008 10:16 AM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It has got to be at least as fair as your meta-construction about me "appropriating" Chow's voice.

There was nothing in my post that amounted to an direct attack on you, or anyone else, you simply construed it that way. I was talking about how media reporting and the "anecdote" that most often appears as the by-line "human interest" piece combine to create a self-perptuating media stereotype. This happens here, as it does anywhere else.


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 25 July 2008 11:37 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You did appropriate Chow's voice, and I am still waiting for you to back up your claim that I was attacking Muslims.

And yes you did attack babblers all. Please do reread what you said, here ya go:

quote:
We often see this kind of thinking on rabble, where "anecdotal" tales are used to reinforce culturally imbued biases, and used as examples to make it appear that those biases have a "rational" basis.

From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
M. Spector
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Babbler # 8273

posted 25 July 2008 11:58 AM      Profile for M. Spector   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
For the benefit of the hopelessly bewildered who are keen to follow the thread drift (which started soon after the OP), here are what I believe to be the threads that are in dispute:

All about Dubai

The Olivia Chow trilogy:
Vol. I
Vol. II
Vol. III

Did I miss any?


From: One millihelen: The amount of beauty required to launch one ship. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 25 July 2008 12:16 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Thanks mspector, you got em all. Please do have a read cueball and refresh your memory.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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Babbler # 4790

posted 25 July 2008 01:44 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Thanks Spector.

quote:
Originally posted by remind:
You did appropriate Chow's voice, and I am still waiting for you to back up your claim that I was attacking Muslims.

And yes you did attack babblers all. Please do reread what you said, here ya go:


"Often", is not all.I could be one poster who often posts, for example. Please go read a dictionary or something.

To be clear people asked me to back up my statement that the NDP is systemically racist, and includes people who say and do latently racist things. I made a critical analysis of racism in the NDP using a number of sources of material. These specifically related to things said about Chow by NDP staff to me, and by (purported) NDP'rs on this board. I provided various examples, some from my personal experiences, other verifiable by simple checking the record of this web site, and the records of other web sites I linked to.

I never suggested I was speaking for Chow, or in defence of her, I simply used her as an central example, given that many of the prejudiced things I hear from NDP'rs were said about her. For example commentary here saying that her "accent" made her unqualified for superior positions, were said about her, here on this web site.

Now do you have anything to say about what I said in this thread? Following me around displaying your "war wound" about the Chow threads is verging on stalking.

[ 25 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 25 July 2008 01:59 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cueball:
"Often", is not all.I could be one poster who often posts, for example. Please go read a dictionary or something.
Nonsense your use of often, is a broad brush, and as such you labelled people here as "hucksters" when you yourself use ancedotal information yourself yourself as shown in the linked Chow threads.

quote:
To be clear people asked me to back up my statement that the NDP is systemically racist, and includes people who say and do latently racist things.
You used ancedotal information to try to do so, it is there cueball read it.

quote:
I made a critical analysis of racism in the NDP using a number of sources of material.
No actually you did not.

quote:
I never suggested I was speaking for Chow,
No actually you expropriated her voice to use for yourself.

quote:
Now do you have anything to say about what I said in this thread? Following me around displaying your "war wound" about the Chow threads is verging on stalking.

I have said what I have to say about what you wrote, and Iam not following you around, nor stalking you, nice accusation, but it is just a silly attempt to try and silence my voice calling you out on your labelling and disparaging others for what you do quite frequently.

From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4790

posted 25 July 2008 02:09 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What makes you think I was talking about you when I used the word "Hucksters?" Nothing could be further from the fact. If anything I would have put you in the gullible category, as your wholesale acceptance and reinforcement of the British Tabloid press framing of the Palmer incident indicates. I have provided several other possible framings of the incident, none of which seem relevant to you, either here, or in the previous thread.

1) The sexism of the British press
2) The sexism of Palmer's employers
3) The operative caste system in Dubai, of which Palmer is a beneificiary
4) The racism of the British press framing the Palmer case a "Muslim" issue.

Your only interest so far, has been slamming me with various personal attacks, and in the original thread finding ways to defend the framing of the issue as a Muslim issue as defined by the Tabloid press.

quote:
No actually you expropriated her voice to use for yourself.

I could say you were doing the same with Palmer. Whatever!

By the way there is plenty of room for you to contribute that thread further. This thread, after all, is supposed to be about the relationship of anecdotes to scientific inquirey.

[ 25 July 2008: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 25 July 2008 02:19 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cueball:
...If anything I would have put you in the gullible category, as your wholesale acceptance and reinforcement of the British Tabloid press framing of the Palmer incident indicates.
Nonsense, I made 2 whole posts in that thread, and in the very first post I stated I agreed with you. You really need to look before you accuse, eh?

quote:
I have provided several other possible framings of the incident, none of which seem relevant to you, either here, or in the previous thread.
I am taking exception to your labelling criticism of babblers for that which you yourself do. And in actual fact, I have been gone since pretty much my last post in that thread, and just got back.

quote:
Your only interest so far, has been slamming me with various personal attacks,
No, personal attacks against you, sorry, playing the victim is not correct, I was and am taking exception to your broadbrushing babblers and calling us "hucksters".


quote:
and in the original thread finding ways to defend the framing of the issue as a Muslim issue as defined by the Tabloid press.
That is an absolute fabrication!

[ 25 July 2008: Message edited by: remind ]


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4790

posted 25 July 2008 02:26 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Nonsense, I made 2 whole posts in that thread, and in the very first post I stated I agreed with you. You really need to look before you accuse, eh?

Really? You suggested that this would never have happened in Canada:

quote:
Agree with you cueball, however here they most likely would not be charged with having sex on a beach, and definitely not charged with having sex outside of marriage.

More or less: I agree with you other than the fact that it would not have happened here, and just look at the Muslim content.

Oblivious to the fact that the "sex before marriage law" is basically a prostitution charge, in a society where one can get married for 24 hours, and Imams are on call to do so at almost any time of the day.


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
Moderator
Babbler # 560

posted 25 July 2008 02:34 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
A) Cueball didn't "appropriate" anyone's voice in the threads M. Spector linked to. He spent three threads discussing a racist incident he had with someone in the NDP and then fended off attacks for three threads for daring to discuss systemic racism he's witnessed in NDP circles.

B) Cueball didn't attack anyone in this thread in his opening post - he simply observed a pattern on babble when it comes to how certain types of news stories get discussed, and only responded in kind when he was attacked.

Could we maybe move on now? This bickering is not only really boring for those who haven't followed all the past threads that have been referenced, but it also creates a really hostile tone. Isn't there any way - any way at all - that we can discuss issues like this, and even issues from past threads, without freaking out on each other?


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged

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