quote:
(...) First, there are actually two important voting decisions - not just whom to pick but whether to vote at all. Candidates need to get their voters excited enough to come to the polls (or possibly to give money). Extreme positions can do that.But positions that energize your base may also encourage the opposition to come out against you. That's where the second part of the model comes in. Candidates need a way to target their messages so their supporters are more likely to respond than their opponents.
That's where social groups like churches and unions come in. These groups provide friendly forums for candidates' direct or indirect messages. While outsiders may know something about a candidate's more extreme positions, group members know more - because the messages are aimed specifically at them.
(...)
"This is exactly what you see in the data," Professor Glaeser said. "The degree of polarization around religious issues is greatest in the places that are in the middle. It's not the Philippines, which are 100 percent religious, and not Scandinavia, where no one has attended a church in 40 years except for a wedding or a funeral. It's really these places like the U.S. that are in the middle."
(...)
Since the success of extreme messages depends on keeping your supporters better informed than your opponents, the model suggests that changing news media could be as important as changing social groupings.
"If every time you say something in private to a religious group or a feminist group, it ends up on Drudge within three minutes in screaming headlines," Professor Glaeser said. "It's going to stop people from going to extremes."
Email this thread to someone!
posted 09 November 2004 01:26 AM
