B-EY: 32.2%, 35.0%, 32.2%
Danforth: 46.4%, 48.4%, 45.0%
Dav.: 34.1%, 32.6%, 31.3%
P-HP: 34.5%, 40.4%, 36.0%
SP: 15.7%, 19.2%, 13.3%
TC: 23.7%, 23.7%, 15.1%
T-S: 42.0%, 46.0%, 40.9%

quote:

---

Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
NDP vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008 in the Old City of Toronto ridings:

B-EY: 32.2%, 35.0%, 32.2%
Danforth: 46.4%, 48.4%, 45.0%
Dav.: 34.1%, 32.6%, 31.3%
P-HP: 34.5%, 40.4%, 36.0%
SP: 15.7%, 19.2%, 13.3%
TC: 23.7%, 23.7%, 15.1%
T-S: 42.0%, 46.0%, 40.9%

---

I suppose we might as well add 2007's provincial numbers for good measure...

B-EY: 44.32%
T-Dan: 45.85%
Davenport: 36.49%
P-HP: 44.71%
StP: 15.74%
TC: 18.82%
T-S: 41.15%

And for the heck of it, for the total overview, other Toronto seats (+ 2007 provincial)...

DVE: 13.2%, 12.9%, 13.3% (10.6%)
DVW: 8.6%. 9.1%. 10.2% (4.7%)
Eg-L: 10.4%, 11.5%. 8.4% (10.0%)
EtC: 9.9%, 9.6%, 8.3% (8.4%)
EtL: 14.5%, 15.6%, 11.7% (13.3%)
EtN: 12.2%, 10.6%, 15.7% (14.9%)
P-SE: 11.2%, 11.6%, 10.6% (11.2%)
ScA: 10.2%, 11.1%, 9.3% (10.5%)
ScC: 16.8%, 14.0%, 15.8% (13.3%)
ScG: 16.2%, 14.2%, 14.4% (21.9%)
ScRR: 9.3%, 10.8%, 14.7% (13.7%)
ScSW: 22.3%, 23.1%, 18.8% (18.1%)
Wil: 9.6%, 11.4%, 10.2% (8.3%)
YC: 13.7%, 13.6%, 12.1% (10.9%)
YSW: 21.2%, 21.3%, 28.0% (41.5%)
YW: 15.3%, 14.1%, 18.7% (28.0%)

One is that having the so-called green party at something 10% in Toronto reduces the available number of votes for all parties. The NDP vote may be stagnant - but so is the Liberal vote. In fact the Liberal vote took a pretty big hit in Trinity-Spadina and Danforth this time as well.

The one bright spot for the NDP in Toronto was York South-Weston where the vote went up a lot this time.

I think that more and more Toronto is seceding from the rest of Canada in terms of having its own unique voting pattern that is completely different from the rest of Ontario (let alone the rest of Canada).

For the NDP, I think that there are probably two factors that create challenges in Toronto:

1. You cannot underestimate the impact of having a shamelessly pro-Liberal partisan rag like the Toronto Star as the main daily paper - and when day after day after day, the main daily paper reads like it was written by Liberal Party spin-doctors - it has to have some impact.

2. This election more than ever, the NDP under Layton ran a very class-based economically populist campaign. I think that this was the right thing to do under the circumstances and it was instrumental in sweeping northern Ontario and cementing the NDP lock on Hamilton, Windsor etc... and gaining ground in poorer and more blue collar ridings across Canada. BUT, in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - bit you can almost hear all the snooty Margaret Atwood types turning up their noses in horror. Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

Edited to add: "Margaret Atwood types" - yeah, because international best-selling authors are a dime a dozen here in Toronto. They are a powerful voting block, that is for sure.

To be more clear: there is one "Margaret Atwood type" in Toronto - or Canada, for that matter. She would be Margaret Atwood.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: writer ]

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]

quote:

---

What stereotypes? Stockholm, coming from you, I am getting a much-needed injection of humour for the day.

---

Maybe I should conduct an experiment and see if I can EVER post on any topic at all, anytime, between today and the day I die and NOT have it provoke an immediate derisive, snarky, sarcastic comment from you.

As opposed to your stereotype about "Margaret Atwood types" immediately above.

Rich, rich, rich, coming from you.

Speaking of the "Yorks", one surprising result in Toronto was York Centre. The NDP used to have some strength there (Howard Moscoe ran there provincially for instance in Wilson Heights in the 70s and Downsview was NDP for years). But Dryden only won by 2500 votes - narrowing out the Tory. It used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in Canada. As a left-Lib, I would think he'd take some NDP votes that wanted to stop the Tories.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
the NDP is first and foremost a party that defends the interest of working class people and if we have to choose between gearing our message towards winning the votes of working class people or winning back Margaret Atwood - I think the former has to take precedence.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially). Carolyn Bennett is also very personally popular and one of the most progressive Liberals. After seeing Kent lose so badly in '06, it's pretty clear St. Paul's has emerged into a very Liberal riding.

---

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by adma:

EtN: 12.2%, 10.6%, 15.7% (14.9%)
ScRR: 9.3%, 10.8%, 14.7% (13.7%)
YSW: 21.2%, 21.3%, 28.0% (41.5%)
YW: 15.3%, 14.1%, 18.7% (28.0%)

---

What's with the hate on for Atwood? Is there a book burning I don't know about. Has the central committee deemed her unrevolutionary and she must be purged???

My god you sound like a jilted lover who's out to trash the reputation of their ex.

quote:

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Originally posted by Fidel:
Was it a false flag operation to swing the sympathy vote for an otherwise high calibre candidate?

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]

---

WHAT??? Seriously you think Carolyn cut breaklines for the headlines?

quote:

---

Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially). Carolyn Bennett is also very personally popular and one of the most progressive Liberals. After seeing Kent lose so badly in '06, it's pretty clear St. Paul's has emerged into a very Liberal riding.

---

More seriously, the campaign was run on a bit of a shoestring this time out. As Summerville was a high profile candidate, a lot of money was spent. Less than half that amount was spent on Anita Agrawal's campaign, recognizing that she's a young unknown who's just building recognition this time out. And she came to us at the last minute, as another person who had planned to run dropped out due to complications.

quote:

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Originally posted by cornerstone:

WHAT??? Seriously you think Carolyn cut breaklines for the headlines?

---

quote:

---

What's with the hate on for Atwood? Is there a book burning I don't know about. Has the central committee deemed her unrevolutionary and she must be purged???

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:

She may be a good author - but she clearly knows ZILCH about politics. What can you say about someone who claims that he number one issue is stopping the SPP - and then says that people have to vote Liberal - even though it was the Liberals who created the SPP in the first place?

---

You have had a hate on for Atwood ever since she endorsed Adam Vaughan. Give it a rest.

Margaret is a fabulous author and a great critical thinker. To bad your skin is too thin when she criticises the NDP or any of your pet policies.

quote:

---

Originally posted by cornerstone:
You want to know why the NDP is falling in Toronto? It's because of Dipper reactions like yours. Viscously attacking anybody of note who doesn't support your Orthodox political view.

---

I don't "hate" her. I'm sure she is probably a perfectly nice person who has written some good novels.

I just think that when it comes to politics she's as dumb as a post.

You surmised that Atwood was naive and played into Adam's hands. In addition you implied that Adam was a shill for Tony Ianno and that Tam Goossen was undermining Helene Kennedy

Long time to hold a grudge for old Margaret and anybody who dares disagree with your Orthodox view of the world.

This thread is about how the NDP is loosing support in Toronto. Pretty easy to figure out why from the tone of this thread. Who the hell wants to be a part of a party that eats its own and is dismissive of success. Check that, despises success.

I'm proud of Atwood's success and what she has done for canadian literature. She paved the way for the following generation of authors to be heard on a much larger stage. Yann Martel and others would not have had their opportunity if it wasn't for people like Margaret. We build on the successes of those who come before us.

Stock, your attacks on Atwood are petty and vindictive. To dismiss her because she is simply successful is asinine. As for your assertion that we don't "need" the Atwood's of the world then what the hell was all that electioneering around Canadian Culture?

quote:

---

Originally posted by robbie_dee:

It's hilarious when people try to blame broad political trends such as a decline in NDP votes in Toronto on the behavior of a few jackasses posting on internet message boards. Message boards which are only even read by something like 0.00001% of the population at most. For me, Stockholm's posts have mostly just turned me off of Scandinavia.

---

How many people on this board worked on a campaign??? How many of them answered phones and knocked on doors??? A lot I'd bet.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]

But, if she says that her NUMBER ONE concern is to stop the Security and Prosperity Perimeter (SPP) and then she thinks that the best way to do that is to vote for the party that introduced the SPP in the first place and remains committed to it - then my conclusion is that when it comes to politics she must be really, really, really STUPID.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Left Turn:
I think the msm fearmongered a lot of people in Toronto into voting Liberal rather than NDP, by runninng stories about whether the Conservatives could pick up any ridings in Toronto. There were stories about how the Conservatives were competitive in Don Valley West, and were making a major push to win this riding. There was even one evening where polster Nick Nanos mused on CPAC that his polling numbers for the greater Toronto area might allow the Conservatives to pick up ridings like Etobicoke Lakeshore.

---

I think you give way to much credit to the media, whether the Star or Nick Nano's musing over the possible CON pick-ups. Most voters don't even read papers let alone editorials and the editorial sections of newspapers. A whole bunch of people know going in who they will vote for and who they won't and the undecided distribute in almost the same percentages as those who have made up their minds. The NDP message doesn't resonate with 80% voters 80% of the time. Almost as many people who vote anybody but Tory vote anybody but NDP. Just like many NDPers vote anybody but Liberal. I think the nDP supporters on this board spend way to much time trying to figure out who spoiled their fortunes, instead of coming to grips with the fact that the message blame on business, the banks and the coporates doesn't work. Heck many voters in Toronto work for those business, banks or corportations!

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: A political ]

quote:

---

The NDP message doesn't resonate with 80% voters 80% of the time. Almost as many people who vote anybody but Tory vote anybody but NDP. Just like many NDPers vote anybody but Liberal. I think the nDP supporters on this board spend way to much time trying to figure out who spoiled their fortunes, instead of coming to grips with the fact that the message blame on business, the banks and the corporates doesn't work. Heck most in Toronto work for those business, banks or corportations!

---

...and the Liberal message doesn't resonate with 75% of the voters and the Green message doesn't resonate with 94% of the voters...

I think there is a legitimate question about why in this election, the NDP had great success in Hamilton, Windsor, northern Ontario and several other blue collar pockets in Ontario - but had a bit of a setback in Toronto that was totally counter to what happened everywhere else.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:
I think that there are a few things going on here.

One is that having the so-called green party at something 10% in Toronto reduces the available number of votes for all parties. The NDP vote may be stagnant - but so is the Liberal vote. In fact the Liberal vote took a pretty big hit in Trinity-Spadina and Danforth this time as well.

The one bright spot for the NDP in Toronto was York South-Weston where the vote went up a lot this time.

I think that more and more Toronto is seceding from the rest of Canada in terms of having its own unique voting pattern that is completely different from the rest of Ontario (let alone the rest of Canada).

For the NDP, I think that there are probably two factors that create challenges in Toronto:

1. You cannot underestimate the impact of having a shamelessly pro-Liberal partisan rag like the Toronto Star as the main daily paper - and when day after day after day, the main daily paper reads like it was written by Liberal Party spin-doctors - it has to have some impact.

2. This election more than ever, the NDP under Layton ran a very class-based economically populist campaign. I think that this was the right thing to do under the circumstances and it was instrumental in sweeping northern Ontario and cementing the NDP lock on Hamilton, Windsor etc... and gaining ground in poorer and more blue collar ridings across Canada. BUT, in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - bit you can almost hear all the snooty Margaret Atwood types turning up their noses in horror. Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

It would be nice to please everyone, but in the end, the NDP is first and foremost a party that defends the interest of working class people and if we have to choose between gearing our message towards winning the votes of working class people or winning back Margaret Atwood - I think the former has to take precedence.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Aristotleded24:

I think that is quite correct. I also think that the media tends to overstate Toronto's importance in the grand scheme of things. Take a look at this piece from Alice Klein. The key regions that the Conservatives have historically relied on for their strength are Quebec and Western Canada, where the Liberals are not in contention anyways, and with the Liberals not winning any seats in and around the GTA, how did they "save" Canada? Look at the large orange patches around Northern Ontario. And if the Conservatives don't win in "cities," how does she explain Conservative successes in Saint John, Quebec, Ottawa, Kitchener, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver? Sure the GTA voted Liberal out of fear of Harper, but if you look at the political map in the rest of the country, you just don't see that fear of Harper that you do in Toronto, even though they don't agree with Harper any more. It's nice to win seats in Toronto, but how many seats are in the GTA? 40? The truth is you do not need to win in Toronto to form government, it's a lesson Harper has learned well, and that's why he ignores the city.

---

There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

Toronto matters.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: cornerstone ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by cornerstone:
There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by cornerstone:
There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

Toronto matters.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Lard Tunderin' Jeezus:
So what you're telling us is that 5 million people have almost as many seats as 3.5 million people?

The amount that Toronto matters is rather heavily discounted, wouldn't you say?

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by adma:
There's a subtler side to "Toronto matters". Perhaps there was a deliberate downplaying of Conservative potential in the 416 (at least as far as the media goes--but even within "official" Conservative circles) knowing darn well that several seats were genuinely within reach...

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by cornerstone:

yup DVW being one of them. If the Conservatives had run a "Red Tory" instead of the used car dealer they could have won.

---

(1) All things considered, for all of Dion's woes, the Liberals had a solid Toronto campaign package in place, and didn't run into the kinds of Klander-klanger situations that plagued their '06 campaign. And of course, it helped that Toronto produced all those leadership candidates in the interim--and all the more so with Bob Rae now "officially" in the Liberal camp, which wasn't the case in '06 (didn't he contribute to the earlier Peggy Nash campaign?)

(2) For all of Layton's merits as a "Toronto" leader, he's been a Potemkin front for a nagging lack of overall 416 infrastructure; and the fact that Davenport and Parkdale-High Park are more competitive than they've ever been isn't enough--by and large, the NDP still feels like a more haphazard, marginal, erratic, depleted force than it was a generation ago. I remember as recently as the Broadbent era that the party carried a lawn-sign "respectability" even in obvious also-ran lost causes a la Etobicoke Centre--those days are long gone; or else, attempts to rekindle it can seem like overzealous astroturfing, or too much of that energy's been coopted by the Greens, etc.

quote:

---

Originally posted by A political:
the message blame on business, the banks and the corporates doesn't work. Heck many voters in Toronto work for those business, banks or corporations!

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by Stockholm:
in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - but . . . Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

---

Toronto has a concentration of civil servants, doctors, lawyers, other specialized professionals associated with head-office activites, as well as lower-paid office assistants (but even law office assistants in Toronto are paid much more than elsewhere in Ontario).

quote:

---

Originally posted by Wilf Day:
[QB]
Teachers and nurses are found everywhere in the same proportions.

Toronto has a concentration of civil servants, doctors, lawyers, other specialized professionals associated with head-office activites, as well as lower-paid office assistants (but even law office assistants in Toronto are paid much more than elsewhere in Ontario).

---

...as well as academics, researchers, people in cultural industries, etc. This is the "creative class" the NDP gets a lot of its support from. The doctors, lawyers and various professionals in business that are overrepresented in Toronto I would think mostly support the Liberals.

The progressive middle classes are heavily concentrated in the Old City of Toronto. The more conservative professionals are more dispersed across the more affluent areas of the GTA.

[ 25 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]

quote:

---

IF YOU want to know about your neighbour's politics, just peek over the fence at his front yard. According to York sociologist Allan Greenbaum, your lawn clearly states whether you're left-leaning, far right or somewhere in between.

"If you were going to guess whether someone is pro-choice or pro-life, you could probably predict it on the basis of their lawn," says Greenbaum who's just finished a 600-page PhD thesis called The Lawn as a Site for Environmental Conflict. He based his study on a survey of homeowners in the downtown Toronto neighbourhood known as Seaton Village in the west Annex.

The guy out with manicure scissors clipping the edges of his flower beds? He probably believes in hard work, responsibility, getting the job done and supports bylaws that limit the length of your grass. The woman with the wild flowers and herbs and an au naturale approach to Mother Nature? She's likely a left-leaning liberal, perhaps an artist or writer who believes neat lawns are boring and repressive.

---

And it is not entirely a class or demographic difference- although the higher concentration of certain kinds of occupations is part of it. Some of it also is the difference in values od people who live in big city cores.

So as Stock said, while the proportion of big city votes votes going to the Greens may not be high... that does have an effect.

While there have been mentions in this thread to the Liberals 'Toronto strategy'- I think that has been only to the explicit / 'formal' and policy/program side.

The whole creative side to Liberal positioning for the last 2 years- even before Dion became leader- has been with very few exceptions [and all of them fitful] as if the next campaign was about big city cores and competition with the NDP.

Well them days are gone everywhere- not just in Toronto. Getting sign locations and getting the signs there takes lots of volunteers. It's still a high impact thing to do and you do as much as you can, but there are a lot fewer volunteers.

1. Ward 20 Trinity-Spadina, 12.3%
2. Ward 19 Trinity-Spadina, 11.7%
3. Ward 27 Toronto-Rosedale, 10.3%
4. Ward 32 Beaches-East York, 10.0%
5. Ward 30 Toronto-Danforth, 9.8%
(compared to 4.9% in the City)

For social science, education and government:

1. Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence, 15.1%
2. Ward 27 Toronto-Rosedale, 14.8%
3. Ward 21 St. Paul's, 14.5%
4. Ward 22, St. Paul's, 14.3%
5. Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina, 13.9%
(compared to 8.3% in the city)

And for management:

1. Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence, 22.5%
2. Ward 22 St. Paul's, 21.0%
3. Ward 25 Don Valley West, 20.5%
4. Ward 23 Willowdale, 18.0%
5. Ward 4 Etobicoke, 15.8%
(compared to 11.8%)

The art and culture category is very concentrated in the inner core of Toronto. The category of social science, education and government is broader - including lawyers, social workers, teachers, academics, researchers and civil servants - is still concentrated in the core, though somewhat less so. Management occupations have a much greater concentration in affluent suburban areas.

[ 26 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]

Of the 10, the four ridings in our "strongholds" of inner Toronto and the North -- they all lost support while the other 6 -- in the Southern Ontario 'rust belt' -- all grew from the last election.

And you were right only about 3 Toronto ridings - the 4th one, YSW had improved in its showing.

quote:

---

York-South-Weston 28.0 21.3 +31%

---

quote:

---

And you were right only about 3 Toronto ridings - the 4th one, YSW had improved in its showing.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially).

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]

---

Totally agree. Anita Agrawal would like to think that she is of a higher calibre. She sought the federal NDP nomination for Toronto Centre in 2006 against anti-poverty activist Michael Shapcott.
During the last provincial election, she sought the nomination in three ridings, losing the nomination in Toronto Centre and Don Valley West, before becoming a last minute candidate for Etobicoke Centre. She then originally sought the nomination for Davenport against Peter Ferreira, before being talked out of it by people in the NDP.

This was the biggest vote decrease for the NDP in Toronto. Talk about two steps forward, one step back. I really hope our candidate search committee can come up with someone better next time.

[ 28 October 2008: Message edited by: Sinister ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Sinister:
[She sought the federal NDP nomination for Toronto Centre in 2006 against anti-poverty activist Michael Shapcott.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by adma:
When it comes to a potential Toronto strategy, something I'm keeping in mind is Michael Prue's ability to stay buoyant in the provincial Beaches-East York while Maria Minna inexplicably holds on tight federally--indeed, thanks to his past East York mayoralty, Prue does best in the Minna-friendly north. In fact, Prue is a throwback to the long lost days when New Democrats were a sane, viable option on municipal councils in "the boroughs"--I kinda wonder whether a hypothetical federal goal for a 416 breakthrough might be the "Prue Democrats", the local version of the middle-class, normalizing demos which have kept Hamilton's seats in the NDP fold...

---

There used to be a lot of New Democrats in the "Prue mold" - not so much "middle-class" but just practical "meat and potatoes" politicians who appealed to the vast chunks of "uncool" Toronto. In the West End, in particular, many of these NDP politicians were Italian. This came to a crescendo in 1990 when we elected tons of inner-suburban New Dems on a populist platform of cutting auto insurance rates and property taxes: Anthony Perruzza, Tony Rizzo, David Warner, Ed Philip, Tony Silipo even (gulp) George Mammolitti. Five years later these New Democrats returned to voters without having delivered on their economic populist proposals. The Toronto NDP survived in places where the Rae government's socially progressive accimplishments (pay equity, employment equity) resonated but in the rest of the City we were wiped out.

That had a few effects:
- The NDP in Toronto was increasingly in a rearguard action - fighting to defend what we had. This meant resources and energy went into the "downtown" ridings we held and the rest of the City was left to it's own devices. With David
Miller's defeat in York South Weston that left us with: Trinity Spadina, Beaches Woodine, Riverdale, Fort York and Dovercourt.

- The political culture in these "downtown" ridings was different from the rest of the City. So, in addition to getting more resources, the ideological space of the Toronto NDP was increasingly taken up by "downtown" thinking. In other words, less populist, less bread and butter, more "academic".

- This was exacerbated by the absence of voices of Caucus who could speak for, understand, advocate and speak to voters in East York, Etobicoke, York, etc.

- The problem exacerbated itself with each election as we saw ourselves reduced to fewer ridings that took more and more resources to hold.

As a result of all this, and other problems, in vast chunks of Toronto there is no riding association to speak of and while people would consider voting NDP there is either no viable candidate or no viable organization backing that candidate. As a result of that the "centre" is not hearing about the issues that will move these voters towards the NDP. The cycle continues.

Sorry to end on a cynical note, I will return.

ETA: I think I'll make a "positive post" later but rather then taint it I'll add another observation here.

The "NDP Caucus" at City Hall once worked closely with other New Democrats and had representation in areas when New Dems were losing provincially and federally. This is still true today with New Dems like Anthony Perruzza, Maria Augimeri, Howard Moscoe and to some extent Adam Giambrone.

That relationship started fraying during when Rae government at Queen's Park started to tank in popularity. NDP Councillors running for re-election distanced themselves from the party - since it was such an anchor. The turmoil of the Harris years didn't help much. People were polarized as pro or anti Harris and, particularly in light of the unpopularity of the NDP, people switched to the Liberals. In 1999 even Jack Layton and Olivia Chow endorsed an Indpendent over the NDP candidate.

Time eventually started to wash away the bitter memories of the Rae years, to the extent that an admitted New Democrat was actually elected Mayor (albeit as part of an explicitly non-NDP coalition).

This has led to a new problem: the "NDP Caucus" at City Hall is not particularly linked to the NDP. They are, in fact, a "David Miller" Caucus that has no particular loyalty or shared strategic goals with any wing of the NDP. Some councillors help their local New Democrats but, as a block, the team at City Hall doesn't work with the NDP federally or provincially and, in fact, seems to be more interested in preserving Liberal hegemony. Hence, Miller's strategic refusal to criticize McGuinty during the last provincial campaign and to, in fact, relieve pressure on the province by implementing municipal tax hikes. Hence, Miller's praise for Dion's anemic infrastructure plan which was revealed in a leaked document to be "exactly the same" as the Harper plan that Miller criticized.

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: 1948 ]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Sinister:
[QB]This was the biggest vote decrease for the NDP in Toronto. Talk about two steps forward, one step back. I really hope our candidate search committee can come up with someone better next time.

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by 1948:
Five years later these New Democrats returned to voters without having delivered on their economic populist proposals. The Toronto NDP survived in places where the Rae government's socially progressive accimplishments (pay equity, employment equity) resonated but in the rest of the City we were wiped out.

That had a few effects:
- The NDP in Toronto was increasingly in a rearguard action - fighting to defend what we had. This meant resources and energy went into the "downtown" ridings we held and the rest of the City was left to it's own devices. With David
Miller's defeat in York South Weston that left us with: Trinity Spadina, Beaches Woodine, Riverdale, Fort York and Dovercourt.

- The political culture in these "downtown" ridings was different from the rest of the City. So, in addition to getting more resources, the ideological space of the Toronto NDP was increasingly taken up by "downtown" thinking. In other words, less populist, less bread and butter, more "academic".

- This was exacerbated by the absence of voices of Caucus who could speak for, understand, advocate and speak to voters in East York, Etobicoke, York, etc.

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I think this is a very good analysis. The core of NDP support in Toronto is pretty much this "new class" or "creative class" or "progressive middle class" or whatever one wants to call it and they're just not a very big group in terms of voters and are likely to eschew class-based themes. And Rae's patrician style went over a lot better in places like the Annex and the Beaches than it does in say, Scarborough. By 1999 the ONDP had been reduced to the "creative class" strongholds of Beaches-East York, Danforth and Trinity-Spadina (the two very working class ridings that stuck with the NDP in '95 - Davenport/Dovercourt and York South(-Weston) went massively Liberal in 1999 and 2003 (though Paul Ferreira demonstrated that an economic populist campaign resonated very well in YS-W.)

The occupational categories used by StatsCan are often quite broad - and I'm certain Ward 16's "social science, education, govt." group is much more heavily weighted towards white-shoe law firm partners than the inner city ridings. Attempts of the NDP to appeal to the professional classes are quite limited as a group that's probably no more than 5% of the population of Toronto - and very concentrated.

[ 01 November 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]