quote:

---

Originally posted by Serendipity:
Scary. It looks like we're going to be right fucked.

Why don't we DO anything about this???

---

Best explaination I've gotten over this is the "frog in the sausepan" analogy: a frog placed in a saucepan at room temp. won't notice that temperature s-l-o-w-l-y rising, until it's far too late.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Panama Jack:

Best explaination I've gotten over this is the "frog in the sausepan" analogy: a frog placed in a saucepan at room temp. won't notice that temperature s-l-o-w-l-y rising, until it's far too late.

---

Thread drift, but this actually isn't true.

quote:

---

The 'critical thermal maxima' of many species of frogs have been determined by several investigators. In this procedure, the water in which a frog is submerged is heated gradually at about 2 degrees Fahrenheit per minute. As the temperature of the water is gradually increased, the frog will eventually become more and more active in attempts to escape the heated water. If the container size and opening allow the frog to jump out, it will do so.

---

I would expect there is a lot more natural gas in the world than oil. Everything that dies eventually turns into gas (or mayboe coal, I am not quite sure how stable coal is over long geologic time periods). Oil requires that organic material stay in a narrow temperature band during the transformation. See "The Annals of the Former World" by John McPhee for a lucid explanation of this and many other things.

[ 09 November 2005: Message edited by: jrootham ]

See also
http://www.energybulletin.net/8685.html

Well that is no longer the case. Since the price has dropped, thanks in large part to a warm fall that's allowed for a stockpile of furnace oil and North Americans have pulled back a bit from driving their SUVs 30 miles to buy a pack of matches, so has the panic about peaking. It is currently a non issue at his office.

When I pushed him, saying "Come on, what about China and India? You know we can't sustain our lifestyles with them entering the energy fray." He just laughed (he's very cynical) and said it won't be a problem until the price goes up again and then the peak oil story will return and so will the panic. "But at least it's good for energy stocks!"

[ 10 November 2005: Message edited by: ex-hippy ]

[ 10 November 2005: Message edited by: ex-hippy ]

Here is Exxon's projection for energy use up until 2030. By 2030 they say that the amount of oil we will be using is 100 MBDOE (million barrels of oil per day of oil equivalent), natural gas usage will be about 80 MBDOE, coal will be about 70 MBDOE and "alternatives" (such as wind, solar, biomass, nuclear and hydro) will be about 50 MBOE.

It would be very difficult to even build the required alternatives fast enough to account for oil depletion AND increased energy demand. If oil and gas depletion is about 5% per year starting (let's just say 2030), then that's an additional 10 MBDOE which would need to be replaced, or an extra 20% of alternatives that need to be built on top of the very fast growth rate of alternatives.

[ 10 November 2005: Message edited by: Frustrated Mess ]