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The I.E.M. routinely outperforms major national polls. In the last four presidential elections, for instance, almost six hundred different polls were conducted, and the I.E.M.’s market price on the day each of them was released turned out to be closer to the election results seventy-five per cent of the time. And the I.E.M.’s election-eve predictions in those four contests were off by an average of just 1.37 per cent.

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