Author
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Topic: Global Warming and Hurricanes
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West Coast Greeny
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6874
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posted 07 September 2005 04:03 PM
Words I have never heard in the same breath on CNN. Have heard some speculation on BBC World.I follow hurricanes and tropical weather a lot and so I do know a little on this, scientifically in any case (I plan to be a climatologist in college) We have seen a greater frequency of powerful hurricanes than at any time in recorded history. Just in the last 2 years we have seen Ivan, Charlie, Katrina, Dennis, Emily, a couple years before that we saw Mitch... Global Warming is contributing to the warmest ocean temperature since recording began 50 years ago, 1.1 degrees above normal. What has resulted is the more rapid intensification of hurricanes. Hurricanes that would normally only have enough time do develop into a Cat. 2 could develop into a Cat. 4 with a degree or two difference over water. As hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind increases, we see drastically different aftermath scenarios between the two. Over the tropics and sub-tropics, hurricanes could be a far greater threat to low lying coastal cities than the mere raising of oceanic water levels. Distasteful as it is to mention, the tragady at New Orleans was what had me thinking about all this. What rolled over 28.5 degree waters instead of 30 degree waters? Would Katrina have been so huge, could the levees at New Orleans have broken? Link to picture of Ocean temperatures vs. Average in last 50 years.Scroll down the page a little... Global warming may just have claimed a couple of thousand of its first victims. [ 07 September 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004
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West Coast Greeny
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6874
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posted 08 September 2005 02:04 PM
Yep NFZ, TROPICAL STORM Ophilia is currently sitting just of the coast of Florida and a projected to, well, continue sitting just off the coast of Florida. The fear with this storm is that it could loop over Florida and head toward the recovering Gulf Coast.And yes, increases in number of named storms have less to do with an increase in ocean temperatures. Rather, these have more to do with a decrease in upper level winds that would normally shear off the tops of developing storms in their infancy. (Wind shear has been well down this year too) The concern is seeing more INTENSE hurricanes in the future, hurricanes being supercharged by warmer ocean waters. The problem is, (admittedly with all global warming issues) that all of these predictions are theories, and theories can (and have) been wrong. The problem is that (too) many write them off, even though there is absolutely no evidence contradicting them. The other problem, which scooter pointed out, is that the current spike in intense hurricanes has lasted to short to be a permenant global-warming induced trend. [ 08 September 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004
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