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Author Topic: Global Warming and Hurricanes
West Coast Greeny
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posted 07 September 2005 04:03 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Words I have never heard in the same breath on CNN. Have heard some speculation on BBC World.

I follow hurricanes and tropical weather a lot and so I do know a little on this, scientifically in any case (I plan to be a climatologist in college)

We have seen a greater frequency of powerful hurricanes than at any time in recorded history. Just in the last 2 years we have seen Ivan, Charlie, Katrina, Dennis, Emily, a couple years before that we saw Mitch...

Global Warming is contributing to the warmest ocean temperature since recording began 50 years ago, 1.1 degrees above normal.

What has resulted is the more rapid intensification of hurricanes. Hurricanes that would normally only have enough time do develop into a Cat. 2 could develop into a Cat. 4 with a degree or two difference over water. As hurricane damage increases exponentially with wind increases, we see drastically different aftermath scenarios between the two.

Over the tropics and sub-tropics, hurricanes could be a far greater threat to low lying coastal cities than the mere raising of oceanic water levels.

Distasteful as it is to mention, the tragady at New Orleans was what had me thinking about all this. What rolled over 28.5 degree waters instead of 30 degree waters? Would Katrina have been so huge, could the levees at New Orleans have broken?

Link to picture of Ocean temperatures vs. Average in last 50 years.Scroll down the page a little...

Global warming may just have claimed a couple of thousand of its first victims.

[ 07 September 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
byzantine
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posted 07 September 2005 07:15 PM      Profile for byzantine        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm really interested in hearing what people think on this issue. At first I thought the documented increase in hurricane activity was probably a function of global warming. Then I read a piece in the G&M that said most scientists agree the increase is unrelated to rising water temperatures. So I'm not sure what to believe. I can understand warming water creating the conditions for more intense hurricanes, but would warmer water account for a greater number of hurricanes as well?
One of the problems here is that climate is such a complex phenomenon, I'm sceptical that our science can at present give us the answers we seek.

From: saskatchewan | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
scooter
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posted 07 September 2005 07:21 PM      Profile for scooter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Greeny:
We have seen a greater frequency of powerful hurricanes than at any time in recorded history. Just in the last 2 years we have seen Ivan, Charlie, Katrina, Dennis, Emily, a couple years before that we saw Mitch...

Now there is the problem with people trying to tie hurricanes with Global Warming. Their time frame is far too short. We humans are hardwired to see trends when there are none.

Now, does anyone want to bid on my Virgin Mary sandwich?


From: High River | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cougyr
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posted 07 September 2005 07:25 PM      Profile for Cougyr     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
There are already two more hurricanes behind Katrina. Fortunately, they are mid-Atlantic and only of interest to sailers. Maria & Nate
From: over the mountain | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
retread
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posted 07 September 2005 08:07 PM      Profile for retread     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
IIRC, climate researchers say the number of hurricanes are still within the statistical bounds of the previous climate. The number of extreme events is expected to rise as the century progresses, but its too early to say that what we see now is the effect of global warning. They're cautious for a reason - if we suddenly get less storms for a couple of reason the conservatives will jump all over that as proof it was all a scare tactic and try to use it to dismantle any climate controls that might have been put in place.

But they're pretty outspoken in warning that whether or not (no pun intended) what we're seeing is currently statistically significant, if we keep on pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere we definitely will see real changes.


From: flatlands | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
byzantine
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posted 07 September 2005 11:21 PM      Profile for byzantine        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Seems like a great time to cut the price of gasoline and thus increase consumption. Hey, it's only poor black people in the gulf states suffering anyway, right!? Long live the SUV! Viva la revolucion de SUVs!! O dear...
Sorry, had to vent some built-up sarcasm there.

From: saskatchewan | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
nuclearfreezone
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posted 07 September 2005 11:38 PM      Profile for nuclearfreezone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Cougyr:
There are already two more hurricanes behind Katrina. Fortunately, they are mid-Atlantic and only of interest to sailers. Maria & Nate

I heard about a Hurricane Ophelia tonight.


From: B.C. | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 08 September 2005 02:04 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yep NFZ, TROPICAL STORM Ophilia is currently sitting just of the coast of Florida and a projected to, well, continue sitting just off the coast of Florida. The fear with this storm is that it could loop over Florida and head toward the recovering Gulf Coast.

And yes, increases in number of named storms have less to do with an increase in ocean temperatures.
Rather, these have more to do with a decrease in upper level winds that would normally shear off the tops of developing storms in their infancy. (Wind shear has been well down this year too)

The concern is seeing more INTENSE hurricanes in the future, hurricanes being supercharged by warmer ocean waters.

The problem is, (admittedly with all global warming issues) that all of these predictions are theories, and theories can (and have) been wrong. The problem is that (too) many write them off, even though there is absolutely no evidence contradicting them.

The other problem, which scooter pointed out, is that the current spike in intense hurricanes has lasted to short to be a permenant global-warming induced trend.

[ 08 September 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
rinne
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posted 08 September 2005 03:59 PM      Profile for rinne     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
When in St.John's this summer, I was told it was the first summer that there were no icebergs in the harbor. People have been there for a long time and the impression I was given was that this was very unusual. Does anyone know more about this?
From: prairies | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 08 September 2005 04:05 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
We usually have at least one iceberg drift in through the channel passage here - but none this year. (we're a small village on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, almost directly across from Newfoundland)
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Contrarian
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posted 08 September 2005 10:14 PM      Profile for Contrarian     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Real Climate has discussed the difficulties in deciding if an increase in hurricanes is due to global warming or to a cycle over several years where they get worse, then less worse [I know, less bad]. They have a new article since Katrina.

The thinking seems to be that the intensity may be increasing, but maybe not the number of hurricanes. One commenter suggested Katrina was unusually large too.

[ 08 September 2005: Message edited by: Contrarian ]


From: pretty far west | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
Southlander
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posted 27 September 2005 01:59 AM      Profile for Southlander     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by scooter:

Now there is the problem with people trying to tie hurricanes with Global Warming. Their time frame is far too short. We humans are hardwired to see trends when there are none.

Now, does anyone want to bid on my Virgin Mary sandwich?


Sorry but it looks more like madonna (The other one) or eva peron, or is that madonna anyway..... perhaps it IS madonna?


From: New Zealand | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Contrarian
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posted 27 September 2005 02:38 PM      Profile for Contrarian     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I just found this blog; Roam no more which has some intelligent discussions about global climate change and lots of links for further information.
From: pretty far west | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged

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