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Author Topic: Any NDP seats possible in Saskatoon?
Will Hiscock
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posted 04 October 2008 12:53 PM      Profile for Will Hiscock     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I understand how the city has been carved up and given a lot of hinterlands in all the seats it is harder, but are there any seats in Saskatoon that might be open for the NDP?

Will disappointment over Wall give us a boost, or the collapse of Dion's Liberals? I'm new to S'toon and really don't know the candidates, or the campaigns on the ground at all.

Many Thanks


From: St. John's, NL | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Tim
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posted 04 October 2008 01:08 PM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The NDP has a very realistic chance (and this seems to be widely acknowledged) in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, where Nettie Wiebe is the candidate.

There's a good recent post at DemocraticSpace.com which outlines some of the factors, including the rural/urban split of the riding.

As noted in that post, there does seem to be more awareness this time that the NDP is the strategic vote in Saskatchewan. I posted in another thread about Bob Rae's visit to the riding, but even the StarPhoenix is pointing out that the Liberals are the potential spoilers, not the NDP.


From: Paris of the Prairies | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
genstrike
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posted 04 October 2008 04:36 PM      Profile for genstrike   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What is the deal with those Saskatchwan ridings anyways? I don't live in Saskatchewan so I don't know the history of those ridings, but at first glance, they look completely gerrymandered to ensure Conservative domination and prevent the NDP from picking up an urban seat
From: winnipeg | Registered: May 2008  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 04 October 2008 04:43 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Unlike Stephen Harper and his 14 Saskatchewan Conservative candidates, Jack Layton and his Saskatchewan NDP team are not afraid to put out a platform, talk to media, attend debates and address the issues that are important to families,” Wiebe said. “We are proud of our plan for Saskatchewan and we will stand behind it anytime, anywhere and anyplace.”

The NDP platform also invests $5 billion over five years in First Nations and Métis communities and entrenches the Canadian Wheat Board. Investments in transit would see $40.6 million for public transportation in Saskatoon and an additional $37.1 million for similar initiatives in Regina. The NDP climate change plan penalizes big polluters and not Saskatchewan families and there is also a comprehensive affordable housing strategy.

The NDP plan is also the only one that fully commits to a fair equalization deal for Saskatchewan which would bring in an additional $800 million per year that could be used for various infrastructure upgrades


http://www.ndp.ca/page/7174


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 04 October 2008 06:24 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Tim:
I posted in another thread about Bob Rae's visit to the riding...

I guess that the Liberals figure that they should play to Rae's greatest strength: keeping people from voting NDP!


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Tim
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posted 04 October 2008 06:56 PM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by genstrike:
What is the deal with those Saskatchwan ridings anyways? I don't live in Saskatchewan so I don't know the history of those ridings, but at first glance, they look completely gerrymandered to ensure Conservative domination and prevent the NDP from picking up an urban seat

The last federal boundaries commission did recommend substantial changes to the boundaries, with six largely urban ridings. But this was "overwhelmingly rejected" by the submissions (which I've always taken to mean that the Conservatives, or whatever they were called at that point, got organized).
quote:
...the Commission has concerns that the submissions heard by it may not be representative of the residents of Saskatchewan as a whole because voters in agreement with a proposal tend not to make representations supporting it. However, the Commission is of the view that the hearing process mandated by the legislation should be respected and that its decision should not be inconsistent with the submissions that it heard.

commission report (2004 representation order)

[ 04 October 2008: Message edited by: Tim ]


From: Paris of the Prairies | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
pebbles
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posted 04 October 2008 08:01 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by genstrike:
What is the deal with those Saskatchwan ridings anyways? I don't live in Saskatchewan so I don't know the history of those ridings, but at first glance, they look completely gerrymandered to ensure Conservative domination and prevent the NDP from picking up an urban seat

Ask the NDP MP, who rejected a redrawing of the map a decade ago that would have obliterated the ability of the Conservatards to represent Regina, and most of Saskatoon, in the House of Commons.


From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
bekayne
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posted 04 October 2008 08:12 PM      Profile for bekayne        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by pebbles:

Ask the NDP MP, who rejected a redrawing of the map a decade ago that would have obliterated the ability of the Conservatards to represent Regina, and most of Saskatoon, in the House of Commons.


Dick Proctor?


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pebbles
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posted 04 October 2008 08:22 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yeah, Proctor. And it was the 2004 redistribution, not the previous one.

Criticism about boundaries meddling hitting home

Dick Proctor
Special to Times-Herald

I seem to be hitting a raw nerve with my criticism of Ralph Goodale and other Liberal ministers for their meddling in the redrawing of federal electoral boundaries.

...

By way of background, a boundaries commission decided last summer that the Palliser constituency should disappear, and be replaced by one called Long Lakes, which takes in an immense territory, from the American border to just south of Saskatoon. It's a riding that is so scattered that it would be almost impossible to serve as an MP.

BTW, this was the map that so offended Mr. Proctor.

Goof.


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pebbles
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posted 04 October 2008 08:27 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I must confess, however, that the NAMES of those proposed ridings were awful.
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Tim
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posted 04 October 2008 08:32 PM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Sure, Proctor was against the changes, and that was unfortunate. But is it really fair to blame him for the whole thing? One MP doesn't control the process. The commission's report indicates that a substantial number of submissions were presented against the proposals.
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Malcolm
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posted 04 October 2008 09:02 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The names weren't so bad - although Parklands is also commonly used in the southern part of the Quill Lakes seat.

In any event, had the last two elections been run under those boundaries, the NDP would likely have won all three Saskatoon seats and two of the Regina seats.

Disck's criticism of the Long Lakes boundary is not without merit. A riding that runs from the edge of Saskatoon to the border is an anti-democratic monstrosity

And, although Dick would doubtless have been welcomed as a candidate in Pasqua, he lived in the proposed Wascana and would likely have felt obliged to offer against Ralph Goodale - not a desirable prospect.

Dick's decision to call for a return to the old - and already a decade out of date - boundaries ccut the party off at the knees. How could the NDP support the new boundaries when one of our two Saskatchewan MPs was opposing it?


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 05 October 2008 01:00 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by genstrike:
they look completely gerrymandered to ensure Conservative domination and prevent the NDP from picking up an urban seat

This is not a great excuse.

The four Saskatoon area ridings have 293,738 population (2006 census). Of these, 233,923 are in the Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area, and another 15,574 are in the small urban areas outside the metropolitan area like Rosetown and Biggar, for a total of 249,497, or 84.94% of the total.

Not too rural.


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Krago
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posted 05 October 2008 03:42 AM      Profile for Krago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Here are the rural/urban votes breakdowns in the eight Saskatchewan 'rurban' seats in Regina and Saskatoon (excludes mobile, advance and special voting):

Palliser
Regina -- CONS: 3,954 (31%), NDP: 4,671 (36%), LIB: 3,643 (28%), GRN: 562 (4%)
Moose Jaw -- CONS: 6,037 (46%), NDP: 4,581 (35%), LIB: 1,946 (15%), GRN: 436 (3%)
Rural -- CONS: 2,528 (75%), NDP: 441 (13%), LIB: 322 (10%), GRN: 79 (2%)

Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre
Regina -- CONS: 7,596 (36%), NDP: 7,074 (33%), LIB: 5,910 (28%), GRN: 651 (3%)
Rural -- CONS: 4,727 (55%), NDP: 1,541 (18%), LIB: 1,992 (23%), GRN: 308 (4%)

Regina--Qu'Appelle
Regina -- CONS: 4,012 (31%), NDP: 5,267 (41%), LIB: 3,142 (24%), GRN: 429 (3%)
Rural -- CONS: 7,145 (48%), NDP: 3,836 (26%), LIB: 3,355 (23%), GRN: 514 (3%)

Wascana
Regina -- CONS: 9,327 (28%), NDP: 5,073 (15%), LIB: 17,289 (53%), GRN: 1,214 (4%)
Rural -- CONS: 1,079 (48%), NDP: 219 (10%), LIB: 878 (39%), GRN: 58 (3%)

Blackstrap
Saskatoon -- CONS: 10,833 (42%), NDP: 8,795 (34%), LIB: 4,880 (19%), GRN: 934 (4%)
Rural -- CONS: 5,574 (62%), NDP: 2,071 (23%), LIB: 910 (10%), GRN: 270 (3%)

Saskatoon--Humboldt
Saskatoon -- CONS: 9,343 (43%), NDP: 7,275 (34%), LIB: 3,871 (18%), GRN: 951 (4%)
Rural -- CONS: 6,288 (60%), NDP: 2,299 (22%), LIB: 1,487 (14%), GRN: 281 (3%)

Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatoon -- CONS: 6,693 (37%), NDP: 8,142 (45%), LIB: 2,657 (15%), GRN: 517 (3%)
Rural -- CONS: 4,181 (64%), NDP: 1,763 (27%), LIB: 380 (6%), GRN: 140 (2%)

Saskatoon--Wanuskewin
Saskatoon -- CONS: 6,673 (39%), NDP: 4,624 (27%), LIB: 4,880 (29%), GRN: 781 (5%)
Rural -- CONS: 8,260 (63%), NDP: 2,243 (17%), LIB: 2,176 (16%), GRN: 374 (3%)


Regina - Combined
CONS: 24,889 (31%), NDP: 22,085 (28%), LIB: 29,984 (38%), GRN: 2,856 (4%)

Saskatoon - Combined
CONS: 33,542 (41%), NDP: 28,836 (35%), LIB: 16,288 (20%), GRN: 3,183 (4%)


From: The Royal City | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Louis Riel Trail
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posted 13 October 2008 08:08 PM      Profile for Louis Riel Trail   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Does anyone know when they will look at the boundaries again? The 2004 map looks entirely reasonable to me.

Its weird that the NDP gets a good percentage of the vote and zero MP's in Sask, at least the Liberals get Goodale.


From: Saskatchewan | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 13 October 2008 08:22 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Redistribution happens after the next decennial census. The census is 1991. By the time the census reports, the redistribution begins, the redistribution reports, is passed etc., we;re talking the early 10s.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
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posted 13 October 2008 09:08 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Redistribution aside, I don't like the idea of having to rely on that in order to win back seats. One of the main problems that the NDP has in Saskatchewan is the collapse of its rural vote. That's the main issue that needs to be addressed.
From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged

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