New Democrat Alexis McDonald came within 4,000 votes of defeating so-called star Conservative M.P Peter McKay.

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Originally posted by Adam T:
I'm sure Mr. McKay was expected to get at least 60% of the vote.

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(I posted this on Jan 17):

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One of the analysts in the French press mentioned that Quebec CPC support is now in the 'zone payante'. They've crossed the threshold into the region where even small movements in their support will start to translate into seats. I went through Greg's seat projections the other day, and there seemed to be about 10-15 seats where only a few percentage points separate the BQ from the CPC. And it looks as though the Bloc vote is definitely softening, at least in Central Quebec. There may be quite a few former Bloc voters who may yet say to themselves over the next few days "Oh, what the hell - I'll vote CPC this time."

I've been playing with the UBC seat projector, and it's not hard to generate plausible scenarios where the CPC gets more than 20 Quebec seats. I'm not saying that it'll happen, but it's still a very real possibility.

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Call them accidental Tories.

They are Sylvie Boucher, Daniel Petit and Luc Harvey, three Conservative candidates who were as surprised as anyone Monday night when they overcame strong Bloc Quebecois incumbents to win their Quebec City seats

"I had a terrific team," Boucher, the new MP of Beauport-Limoilou, said when her win over Bloc MP Christian Simard was confirmed shortly after midnight.

"It consisted of my two daughters and a family friend."

. . . they started to talk about a breakthrough in three more ridings south of Quebec City.

That's a best-case scenario of seven wins in Quebec, but someone forgot to tell those casting the ballots.

On Monday, they voted in a total of 10 Conservatives.

Petit said he realized he might win Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles only around 3 p.m. on Monday.

The lawyer, who was a Conservative candidate and organizer in the 1980s, was shaking hands with some of his backers outside polling stations when voters he did not know came up to shake his hand.

Petit defeated Richard Marceau, the Bloc's justice critic.

In the 2004 election, Marceau won with 52 per cent of the vote and the Conservative candidate placed third with 16 per cent.

Petit confessed the Conservative Party was shooting for second place in his riding, hoping to make gains from the Bloc and the Liberals. In the end, "we had 1,000 votes more," he noted

Harvey defeated Bloc incumbent Roger Clavet in Louis-Hebert riding by 103 votes.

"I was the last one elected," he said, adding his organization was minor league compared with the Bloc machine.

Harvey is a strategic business planner for a Quebec City financial services boutique. As of Monday night, the new MP had no plans to move to Ottawa.

"Tomorrow, I go back to the office," he said. "I have been away and there are some files I absolutely have to deal with."

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Originally posted by Wilf Day:
And for the record: no, I didn't see those three coming either. Seven, yes.

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I did.

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Astonishingly, almost as many Quebecers voted Conservative — 906,741, to be precise — as did Albertans: 930,817.

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Even Conservative candidates in Quebec City were taken aback when they were swept into office — four of them winning city seats, another four in ridings across the river on the south shore of the St. Lawrence. Two other Conservatives won elsewhere in the province.

"Honestly, I am surprised — and very proud," Daniel Petit told reporters on election night, after he defeated popular Bloc MP Richard Marceau in Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles. Unlike the higher-profile winners in the province, like Lawrence Cannon in Pontiac, Josée Verner in Louis-Saint-Laurent, Maxime Bernier in Beauce, and Jean-Pierre Blackburn in Jonquiere — all of whom Harper had mentioned during the French-language debates — the other six candidates flew below the radar.

"I had a terrific team," joked Sylvie Boucher, who defeated Bloc MP Christian Simard in Quebec City's Beauport-Limoilou riding. "It consisted of two daughters and a family friend."

And Luc Harvey, the 41-year-old businessman who won in the affluent city constituency of Louis-Hébert, defeating Bloc MP Roger Clavet, said he had 12 volunteers — five of whom worked on the campaign full time — compared to the 500 to 600 who worked for Clavet.

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Too bad that creep Simard didn't lose too. it would have meant one less retrograde homophobe in the Liberal caucus.

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Originally posted by Albireo:
I was pleasantly surprised that Paul Dewar held Ottawa Centre for the NDP, by a margin that was almost as big as Ed Broadbent's in 2004.

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I was shocked and awed that newcomer Paul Dewar won in Ottawa Centre. I mean, Liberal candidate & lawyer Richard Mahoney has been gunning for the riding for years, was a political insider for years more (and personal friend of Paul Martin), had a much larger team on the ground that was nurtured long-term by some of the best in the business, and everywhere I went had more lawn signs out than Dewar. I can understand someone of formidable stature like Broadbent winning, but a neophyte like Paul Dewar?

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I mean, Liberal candidate & lawyer Richard Mahoney has been gunning for the riding for years, was a political insider for years more (and personal friend of Paul Martin),

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I think its fair to say that in 2006, being an "insider" and a "personal friend of Paul Martin" was very much a political liability NOT an asset.

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Originally posted by Stockholm:
Actually there is a big misconception that St. Boniface is a French-speaking riding. There are about 4 or 5 provincial ridings that go into each federal riding in Manitoba. The provincial riding of St. Boniface (which has a sizeable though not overwhelming Franco-Manitoban community in it) is less than 25% of the federal riding of St. Boniface. the remainder of if St. Boniface federal riding is southeast Winnipeg suburbia and is almost 100% English-speaking and a lot of it elects Tories to the Manitoba leg.

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Once again, glad to see that your view from downtown Toronto gives you an intimate relationship with ridings halfway across the country.

In addition to St. Boniface, the riding includes St. Vital and Windsor Park, both of which have significant Francophone communities (especially Windsor Park). Most areas in the riding have bilingual stop signs. So while the riding is not monolithically francophone, nor is it "nearly 100% English speaking" outside old St. B.

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everywhere I went had more lawn signs out than Dewar

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Originally posted by Thrasymachus:
In what neighborhood? and are you talking about public property signs? 'cuz with the exception of Carleton Heights, Paul Dewar clearly won the sign war.

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As for provincial representation, the St. Boniface federal riding includes the provincial seats of St. Boniface (NDP), St. Vital (NDP), Riel (NDP), Radisson (NDP) and Southdale (PC). Let's see, three NDP cabinet ministers, an NDP backbencher and one Tory. Clearly that's a Tory hotbed provincially, yessiree.

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The NDP staged some shock victories in suburban Winnipeg in the context of Doer's landslide re-election. Normally, most of the provincial seats that make up the federal riding of St. Doniface go Conservative or are swing areas.

The Conservatives btw, won St. Boniface in a federal byelection in 1978, then lost it in 1980, then regained it in 1984 and I think lost it to the Libs. in 1988. In recent history it is clearly a winnable seat for the Tories in a good year.