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Topic: Fed NDP target ridings
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 16 October 2007 12:17 PM
Should Canada have a fall election, these are the target ridings I see as real pick-up possibilities for the NDP. As they show real potential, the NDP should have a better than average possibility of recruiting star candidates for those ridings that don't already have them. I hope Federal Office will be some serious pre-writ attention to these ridings both in terms of developing organization on the ground and preparing strategies to win them.Tier 1 Vancouver-Kingsway Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Edmonton-Strathcona Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Saskatoon Humboldt Elmswood Transcona Churchill Beaches East-York Thunder Bay-Rainy River Thunder Bay-Superior North Nickel Belt Algoma-Manitoulin South Shore St. Margaret’s Tier 2 Newton-North Delta Nanaimo Alberni Vancouver Centre Regina Qu’Appelle Palliser Kenora Davenport Guelph Welland Hull-Aylmer Westmount Ville-Marie Dartmouth Cole-Harbour Madawaska-Restigouche Tier 3 York South Weston Sudbury Fleetwood-Port-Kells Saint Boniface? Winnepeg South Centre? Any comments on my ranking? Did I miss any ridings ? Do I have some ranked too high? ETA: Correction Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar not Saskatoon-Wanuskewin [ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 16 October 2007 12:29 PM
Of the ridings listed the only ones I consider to have star candidates are:Tier 1 Beaches East York Saskatchewan-Rosetown-Biggar Tier 2 Guelph Ridings with IMO strong contenders w/o star searches: Target seats Tier 1 Vancouver-Kingsway Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Edmonton-Strathcona Elmswood Transcona Thunder Bay-Rainy River Thunder Bay-Superior North Nickel Belt Algoma-Manitoulin The NDP and babblers should concentrate on finding stars for the rest (assuming they have not already nominated a candidate). These are: ETA: Tier 2 Davenport Westmount Ville-Marie Madawaska-Restigouche Tier 3 York South Weston Fleetwood-Port-Kells Saint Boniface? Winnepeg South Centre? [ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 16 October 2007 01:00 PM
I have some disagreements here:In Tier 1 - I would add the following ridings: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (the way the Liberals are in freefall - that unctuous twit Keith martin may finally find that his luck runs out) Elmwood-Transcona is already a safe NDP seat so it really doesn't belong in a list of "pick-up opportunities" I would remove Saskatoon-Wanuskewin and Saskatoon-Humboldt. Those seats both went CPC by very wide margins and the first on in particular includes some very socially conservative rural areas. Much better prospects in Sask. would be Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Tory is retiring and Nettie Wiebe is running), Regina-Qu'Appelle and Desnethe-Missinnippi etc... I would consider Welland a Tier 1 I would put Hull-Aylmer as a Tier 1 and also Abitibi-Baie James (NDP candidate is a big start in the Cree community) Who knows what could happen in St. John's NF once Danny Williams takes aim at the federal Tories?
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 16 October 2007 01:31 PM
You may be right about the others as well. I put Saskatoon-Humboldt in because of the NDP history and gains (relative to the provincial average) in the last election. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is probably a Tier 2 riding, although I expect Keith Martin to hold. Nominating a woman was a good move, because the female-male vote split tends to favour the NDP among female voters on the Island and the current candidate will likely only widen that split. Martin, however, is a good constituency MP and despite a hard run campaign against his private health care views in 2006, he is still well liked. Some people even think he is really good looking Abitibi-Baie James depends almost entirely on Romeo Saganash running. So if he runs, I'd put it at Tier 1 as well. Other than the 4-way contested nomination, why would you put Welland at a Tier 1? Will it hurt the NDP that Malcolm Allen is a Pelham pol? Regina-Qu'Appelle should also be a tier 1 riding. By the end of this thread I'll combine people's comments into a kind of "rabble consensus" target set.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 16 October 2007 01:32 PM
So in terms of recruiting candidates to run in the targets listed so far that haven't got nominated candidates, I've heard the following suggestions bandied around before or offer my own:Davenport: Alejandra Bravo, Peter Ferreira, Adam Giambrone Westmount-Ville Marie: Julius Grey York South Weston: Paul Ferreira That still leaves the following ridings to fill: Madawaska-Restigouche Fleetwood-Port-Kells Saint Boniface? Winnepeg South Centre? ETA:Jeanne-Le Ber Papineau Lasalle-Emard [ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 16 October 2007 01:37 PM
I consider Welland to be a Tier 1 because it was quite close last time despite a so-so NDP candidate and now Liberal support is very soft. The fact that Peter Kormos won the identical provincial seat last week by a huge margin also helps.I'm told that Saganash definitely wants to run. I will never understand what anyone sees in Doctor Professor Keith Martin. He is one of those people (along with Dubbya Bush - for other reasons) who I find so thoroughly nauseatingly grating and unctuous that anytime he is on TV, I have to press the "mute" button.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 16 October 2007 02:31 PM
I think York West would clearly be winnable if the Liberals did really badly. I don't know about Maria Augimeri though - she now says she will vote against Miller's tax increase. Also, I think her municipal ward is entirely in York Centre not York West. I also think that the key to winning York West is to appeal to the burgeoning visible minority vote there and not to the old Italian crowd most of whom are either dying of old age or moving to Woodbridge.Antoni Shelton did well there provincially. let's keep the momentum going. [ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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Will S
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13367
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posted 16 October 2007 03:20 PM
quote: Originally posted by V. Jara:
The NDP closed the gap by about 2000 votes last time, but they still have over 4000 to go. If this seat is anything like the Toronto ridings the NDP won over 2 election cycles, it would seem a victory in Sudbury is still one election off. Even so, I can bump it up to Tier 2 if you think it merits the attention.
Is the same candidate running for a third time? Sudbury should probably be in Tier 2, but I'm not sure. Sudbury didn't go NDP in 84 or 88, and the Libs are still doing pretty well in Ontario. Nickel Belt will be a pick up though. With the incumbent retiring it will switch back to the NDP.
From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2006
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janfromthebruce
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Babbler # 14090
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posted 16 October 2007 05:53 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: I'd like to pick up Oshawa, but seriously if the Conservatives were able to win there in both the 2003 and 2007 provincial elections and in the 2004 and 2006 federal elections - why would they lose it now?Unless you think that Sid Ryan is the problem and that the NDP would do a lot better with someone else?
I personally think that Sid could win this riding if the Buzz didn't say vote liberal and cut Sid off at the knees. It's the liberal vote each time that prevents Sid from winning. Personally I hope he runs here and wins.
From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007
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Policywonk
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8139
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posted 16 October 2007 08:02 PM
quote: Of the ridings listed the only ones I consider to have star candidates are:Tier 1 Beaches East York Saskatchewan-Rosetown-Biggar
Linda Duncan is definitely a star candidate in Edmonton Strathcona and we had over 300 people at her nomination meeting last January.
From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005
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BetterRed
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11865
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posted 16 October 2007 08:41 PM
The wikipedia article on the next possible election lists NDP as having 122 candidates nominated(as of August).The same article lists Cons as having a surprising 209 candidates and Libs with puny 104. For Greens I think the number was 64. Whats the number of candidates for NDP right now?
From: They change the course of history, everyday ppl like you and me | Registered: Jan 2006
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Left Turn
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8662
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posted 16 October 2007 11:08 PM
I think people are seriouly overestimating the likelihood of NDP pickups in Quebec. I suspect that In a general election the NDP will have to fight just to hold on to Outremont. I would target Hull-Aylmer for a pickup because Pierre Ducasse is the candidate, but I don't think they will win it or any other Quebec seats besides Outremont. I don't think the Liberals will suffer the meltdown in Quebec that some people suspect, though it would be great to see the NDP pick up a buch of seats in that province.The only changes I anticipate in Quebec to the current standings are the Conservatives picking up a handful of seats from the Bloc. [ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: Left Turn ]
From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 17 October 2007 10:50 AM
Updated list:Tier 1 Vancouver-Kingsway Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Edmonton-Strathcona Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Elmswood Transcona Churchill Beaches East-York Thunder Bay-Rainy River Thunder Bay-Superior North Nickel Belt Algoma-Manitoulin South Shore St. Margaret’s Oshawa Tier 2 Newton-North Delta Nanaimo Alberni Vancouver Centre Regina Qu’Appelle Palliser Kenora Davenport Guelph Welland Hull-Aylmer Westmount Ville-Marie Dartmouth Cole-Harbour Madawaska-Restigouche Sudbury Tier 3 York South Weston Fleetwood-Port-Kells Saskatoon Humboldt Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre Jeanne-Le Ber Saint Boniface? Winnipeg South Centre?
Comments: Saskatchewan is the hardest area to rank in terms of its Tier 3 chances because the NDP runs a semi-distant second in so many ridings. There are also several unknowns, like what the state of the provincial NDP will be after November 7th and what the absence of Chris Axworthy's candidacy will mean in Saskatoon-Wanuskewin. Another unknown is how things will pan out for the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador. Danny Williams said in a recent CBC Politics interview that he will support the St. Johns candidates that have the best chance of beating the Tory incumbents. Could they be New Democrats? Does the NDP have star candidates hidden away? In Québec, a large question mark looms as well. The NDP was able to attract Bloc votes in Montréal to defeat a Liberal incumbent but with so many open nominations who knows where the NDP will be competitive. Using the Outremont case, I have listed those Québec seats with Liberal incumbents that may be vulnerable to a combined NDP-Bloc vote with a dip in Liberal support. This leaves out many areas where the NDP has the potential to substantially improve and maybe even win- given the right star candidate. My sense is that if Mulcair actually delivers on his 6 household names, there will be several ridings where the NDP will finish a strong second, setting it up for election XLI. Nunavut is also a toss-up with the incumbent retiring and the attention the NDP has paid to the riding. Babblers know though, that this race will come down most importantly to the individual candidates- and the NDP has yet to nominate.
So what do people think of the new list? And can they think of star candidates for any of the open nominations?
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 17 October 2007 10:57 AM
Davenport: Alejandra Bravo, Peter Ferreira, Adam GiambroneWestmount-Ville Marie: Julius Grey York South Weston: Paul Ferreira That still leaves the following ridings to fill: Oshawa Jeanne-Le Ber Papineau Lasalle-Emard Madawaska-Restigouche Fleetwood-Port-Kells Saint Boniface? Winnepeg South Centre? Oshawa is critical to fill, because it such a low-hanging riding.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856
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posted 17 October 2007 04:16 PM
quote: Originally posted by Aristotleded24: Tier Three:Selkirk-Interlake, Manitoba
If that's tier 3, then so might as well be Brant, w/its Derek Blackburn past and Ian Deans running there now...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006
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Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901
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posted 17 October 2007 04:24 PM
There's a pretty interesting discussion on the Election Prediction site about Westmount-Ville Marie. Here's a skeptical view on the likelihood of the NDP taking it: quote:
First Nick, don't feel bad about disagreeing with us, we are putting some water in our wine after the NDP win in Outremont. We think that Westmount-Ville Marie may become a competetive riding for the NDP in the same way Vancouver Center is not (a long shot but not unreasonable). It all depends on whether or not the Mulcair win is something new for the NDP in Quebec or just going to be a historical curiosity. We don't see it happening yet (lets see what Layton and Mulcair can do), we still say Liberal hold. King of Kensignton: NDG is not the plateau (read: those Bohemian types are not that big of a demographic). NDG is still dominated by Italians, Jews and a mix of other ethnic groups that traditionally (and still do) vote Liberal. Those intelligentsia and bohemian types are a much bigger demographic in lower Westmount than NDG (which would help the NDP). As for Mount Royal Jews and NDG Jews, they ARE the same. Obviously you never lived in the neighbourhood or else you would know that the Jews in Mount Royal (such as in the city of Cote Ste Luc) used to live in NDG before there was a CSL. Once CSL was built, they moved there. The current NDG Jewsish community are just the ones who didn't up and move. As for Mulcair's win, a big factor, a VERY big factor was that he was (and is) very popular. He's the type of politician that can find support in diverse communities. That played a big role in his win. If the NDP can find someone like that to run in Westmount-Ville Marie, then we're going to be the first to say they ahve a fighting chance. Till then, we see this as becoming Montreal's answer to Vancouver Center.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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Sara Mayo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3714
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posted 17 October 2007 05:24 PM
Sounds like whoever wrote that last quote hasn't been to NDG since 1952!There is no significant Italian population there, and there are more Muslims that Jews in NDG now. There are in fact more francophones than anglophones in NDG these days. http://tinyurl.com/3378xs The Bloc is always a distant but significant second in that riding (20% last time) and many of those votes will switch quite easily to the NDP in the current climate, then add a few percentage points from dissafected liberals to our 2006 base line result of 12%, and then we become very competitive. But only a high calibre candidate can really take advantage of this and actually topple Marlene Jennings. [ 17 October 2007: Message edited by: Sara Mayo ]
From: "Highways are monuments to inequality" - Enrique Penalosa | Registered: Feb 2003
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Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901
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posted 17 October 2007 06:26 PM
NDG is actually split it into two ridings and I was actually talking about Westmount-Ville Marie. I don't believe that the western part of NDG makes up the majority of NDG-Lachine riding.Still my Montreal geography isn't that great. ETA: Here is a profile of the provincial riding of NDG. It still has a large Jewish population (9% by religion) and Italy is still the most common country of birth for the foreign-born. It is also has a much higher percentage of people with university degrees than Montreal generally. http://tinyurl.com/yqdlh3 [ 17 October 2007: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 18 October 2007 10:04 AM
quote: Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
Can you give us that link again, cause all that leads to is an archive for October?
It's the last entry at the bottom of the page.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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Vansterdam Kid
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5474
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posted 18 October 2007 11:38 AM
quote: Originally posted by V. Jara: It's the last entry at the bottom of the page.
Okay, but I wonder who it is because the article doesn't say. There isn't any info at the NDP website either. Interesting thing about that list though, I could imagine only one of those seats realistically going NDP - Cariboo-Prince George which could be considered third tier with a strong candidate. But it's probably more like fourth tier if an election is held any time soon with an average candidate.
[ 18 October 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004
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Will S
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13367
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posted 18 October 2007 04:15 PM
quote: Originally posted by tzarina: By the way , I predict Julius Gray is going to win Westmount just as Mulcair did win Outremont.
Apparently he'll be going up against Marc Garneau. This should be interesting! Garneau is back in [ 18 October 2007: Message edited by: Will S ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2006
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David Young
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14805
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posted 09 December 2007 08:56 AM
What about a riding like Brant?Former Hamilton NDP M.P. Ian Deans is running there, and that riding voted NDP for Derek Blackburn from 1971 to 1993. Or Welland? The provincial NDP strength in that riding may be enough to put that seat in the win column.
From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007
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West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697
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posted 09 December 2007 07:41 PM
quote: Tier 1 Vancouver-Kingsway Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Edmonton-Strathcona Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Elmswood Transcona Churchill Beaches East-York Thunder Bay-Rainy River Thunder Bay-Superior North Nickel Belt Algoma-Manitoulin South Shore St. Margaret’s Oshawa
I guess the list above is OK - I'd question whether Oshawa is a Tier 1 riding, and Vancouver-Kingsway is not as winnable as it looks. The demographic trends in that riding are not good for the NDP - the 2005 BC election confirmed that the NDP vote is much stronger in the Indo-Canadian community than in the Chinese-Canadian community. We lost 2 seats in Burnaby largely for that reason in 2005. I think Newton North-Delta is just as likely as Kingsway or Kamloops and should be moved up to Tier 1 - our NDP candidate in Newton is a very credible Delta school trustee. Newton-ND is the kind of seat the NDP has done well in over the last 2-3 federal and provincial elections. We should also have at least 1 Quebec seat in Tier 1 - I'd argue Saganash's riding in Abitibi rather than Ducasse in Hull-Aylmer. Also, are there any Nova Scotia seats in Tier 1? We are doing so well in NS provincially that we should have at least 1 if not several Nova Scotia seats in Tier 1. quote:
Tier 2 Newton-North Delta Nanaimo Alberni Vancouver Centre Regina Qu’Appelle Palliser Kenora Davenport Guelph Welland Hull-Aylmer Westmount Ville-Marie Dartmouth Cole-Harbour Madawaska-Restigouche Sudbury
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca should be added to Tier 2 - it is more winnable than either Nanaimo-Alberni or Vancouver Centre, in my view, though all 3 are pretty long shots. Esquimalt will go NDP once Keith Martin retires, just as Victoria went NDP after David Anderson left the scene. Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires. Alberni is a very tough seat federally, the demographic trends with lots of Alberta retirees moving to mid-Island communities are not good for the NDP.
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003
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Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901
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posted 09 December 2007 07:51 PM
quote: Originally posted by West Coast Lefty: Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires.
The wild card there are the Greens. Will Adrienne Carr take more from the Liberals or the NDP? The NDP actually came quite close in '04 with a low profile candidate but lost ground with Svend in '06 (no doubt the national media attention to his presence hurt him - I don't think the drop can be entirely or mainly attributed to a few more condos being built).
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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Centrist
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Babbler # 5422
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posted 10 December 2007 09:03 AM
Vancouver Kingsway federally is cobbled together almost equally from a portion of three provincial seats, including Vancouver Fairview (Oak to Main St), Vancouver Kensington (Main St. to Kingsway/Nanaimo), and Vancouver Kingsway (Nanaimo/Kingsway to Boundary).Based upon the individual poll results for 2005, provincially those boundaries would likely go Lib just marginally. Generally speaking, the Chinese Canadian vote has a tendancy to vote Lib while the Indo-Canadian vote has a tendancy to vote NDP. Take Vancouver Kensington provincially for example. The eastern half (east of Inverness) went Lib, while the western half went NDP and that includes the portions of federal Vancouver South. And each of the ridings are not unison internally in terms of individual polls. For example, the portion of Vancouver Fairview (the narrow NDP win provincially) that is in Vancouver Kingsway federally leans Lib provincially. Just noticed that a small portion of a fourth provincial constituency (Vancouver Langara) is also included in Vancouver Kingsway federally (between 41st/33rd and Main/Oak). Now that's what I call a mix and match! [ 10 December 2007: Message edited by: Centrist ]
From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004
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Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901
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posted 11 December 2007 12:30 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: It's not that low. in 2006, the no-name CPC candidate in Kingsway got 18% of the vote.
That sounds pretty low to me - about the same % as in Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Beaches-East York and Toronto-Rosedale. [ 11 December 2007: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732
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posted 11 December 2007 02:29 PM
Newton North-Delta ?Tier 2? It will go again Liberal or maybe Green but not NDP. Nancy Clegg has moved to Point Grey and is no longer the NDP candidate. Some of Nancy's old executive have all quit the NDP and joined to support the Green candidate after he wasn't allowed to re-seek the NDP nomination for the 3rd time because he had challenged the NDP presidential elections in Quebec City September 2006 and Layton himself at the Emerson meeting over his lack of addressing the drug war. Now with Harper's Bill C- 26 marching ahead as the NDP strangely staying silent and the Greens now publicly and fully supporting re-legalizing cannabis the Green candidate is even collapsing the BC Marijuana Party as he takes senior members on as Green candidates. I would forget about Newton North Delta unless you want a list of "for sure lost seats". Hey think what ever. Now provincially I see the Ndp decimated as they drop the left over scraps to the Green Party here next time.
From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007
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Centrist
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5422
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posted 11 December 2007 02:50 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: Vancouver-Kingsway is a very working class riding that does not contain any of the "old money" parts of Vancouver.
True, but it ain't the old pre-1990 working-class east side anymore. The area still comprises mostly single-family homes and the price range? A tear-down comes as cheap as ~$500,000 and everything else goes up from there... up to the ~$1.4 million range.
From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004
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Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138
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posted 11 December 2007 06:51 PM
I also think that a quick way for an NDP candidate to get blown out of the water is to run on a single issue flaky "let's legalize marijuana" campaign. We have the Marijuana Party for that. That would marginalize you enough in a place like Van Centre - let alone in a suburban riding like Newton-North Delta that has one of the largest Indo-Canadian populations of any riding in Canada.and, by the way, if you think that there is even the remotest chance of Newton-North Delta (of all places) being the first riding in Canada to elect a so-called Green candidate - I have to ask what have you been smoking??? [ 11 December 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002
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yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732
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posted 12 December 2007 09:43 AM
Yes she seems to be a nice person make no mistake but not MP material in my view. It is the liberal who I think stands the best chance here, as I have already said. Incumbent.... I wont be voting for the Ndp here no matter who runs for the Ndp ,nor will my friends (many) as I do not believe the abortion issue needs to be re-addressed and as Teresa is apparently against abortion I must choose another candidate. She did also just join the party only for the nomination (days before) and was allowed to win acclaimed. I know the Delta Police sure don't want a Green victory but yes many of us here are voting Green and I can assure you I will bet that the Ndp doesn't even come close this time. The Ndp tried provincially to take away the North Delta members choices and failed. Federally they were successful in their quest to remove a choice. Time will tell as to how many like me leave the Ndp and yes vote Green. I must confess though things like this are really the reason why. From Ms May - Green Party Leader http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3360 One of the most frequently asked questions... I am often asked how the Green Party differs from the other parties. For a quick spot check, I put this little list of “ONLY’s” together. We are the ONLY party calling for the following: A carbon tax, an indispensable step in getting the prices right in energy choices and allowing reduced income and payroll taxes. “Income-splitting” to reduce the tax burden on middle class couples. A continuing role in Afghanistan but within a transformed U.N. mission, legalizing and regulating the poppy trade for medicinal use, and bringing in more Islamic nations into the peace-keeping, security efforts in Southern Afghanistan through the U.N. An end to asbestos mining and export to developing countries. (truly outrageous that for all the talk about asbestos, only the Green Party is prepared to call for banning mining and export.) The phase out of nuclear power and uranium mining. The reform of the Divorce Act to make family law less of a battleground. To launch a national dialogue toward a Guaranteed Livable Income. The legalization of marijuana, to be controlled, regulated and taxed. The six month notice to get out of NAFTA with immediate re-negotiation of key provisions. ........ continued in the link ...enjoy I hope that is posted right.
From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007
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yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732
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posted 12 December 2007 01:07 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm:
I'm glad to know some people will vote so-called Green because they want Canada to continue to wage war in Afghanistan and because they back neo-con tax cut Trojan Horses like "income-splitting" - this just confirms what I have always suspected that the Greens are actually a small "c" conservative party that maybe likes to have people compost more often.
I am just glad you are glad. I don't have your pull here so I will leave it at that arguing with some one like you is beneath my intelligence threshold.
I think its pretty clear who you would vote for. It should be clear to you as well who I will vote for just to counteract at least your vote. Thank you Mr.Layton for single handily , so far doubling the Canadian Green Party support, keep it up please. Dion minority and Green seats is how I see it. I will be so excited just to read here the next day. As I say Newton North Delta will not be going ndp any time soon, not by a long shot. I am still allowed an opinion though am I not? Maybe see layton about changing that. [ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: yvonne tailer ] [ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: yvonne tailer ]
From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007
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Treetop
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9699
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posted 12 December 2007 03:25 PM
quote: Originally posted by yvonne tailer:..the Green candidate is even collapsing the BC Marijuana Party as he takes senior members on as Green candidates. [/qb]
People I know on the Vancouver Centre NDP riding association have informed me that Marc Emery had twice written to them last year with his intentions of trying to seek the nomination there. A couple of cold shoulders later and he changed his mind. [ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: Treetop ]
From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2005
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yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732
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posted 12 December 2007 08:30 PM
They were credited with causing Dion's win over Kennedy and we have the newspaper article to prove that as well as emails from Kennedy himself at the time when his cowardice sent all our delegates over to Dion with his very weak comments about cannabis.Again I am allowed an opinion and no Marc Emery is not wanted as a candidate by us either. The Marijuana Party has some very good and motivated people. Some of these others are very welcome and will be forth coming. The Marijuana Party had an ex mayor , school teachers ,Lawyers and many other Professionals to choose from. If we don't matter why be so concerned? Harper himself is setting the agenda and helping the Greens what with Layton's cowardice over a perceived back lash from standing up for the 3 million cannabis voters he pretended to be wanting to help in 2003. Stay tuned but I stand by my view.
From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 13 December 2007 03:12 PM
quote: Originally posted by West Coast Lefty:
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca should be added to Tier 2 - it is more winnable than either Nanaimo-Alberni or Vancouver Centre, in my view, though all 3 are pretty long shots. Esquimalt will go NDP once Keith Martin retires, just as Victoria went NDP after David Anderson left the scene. Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires. Alberni is a very tough seat federally, the demographic trends with lots of Alberta retirees moving to mid-Island communities are not good for the NDP.
I somewhat agree with you. I would add however, that Nanaimo Alberni has a weak incumbent backbencher while Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca has a (strangely) popular incumbent who has suceeded in getting elected under three (four?) different party banners- and that isn't the only time he's tried to reinvent himself politically. He also has a hardworking constituency office. [ 13 December 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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David Young
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14805
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posted 14 December 2007 03:30 PM
A new poll here in Nova Scotia shows the provincial N.D.P. gaining strength and moving further into the lead, the ruling Conservatives at the same level of support, and the 3rd-place Liberals in decline.This means an increased chance at winning SOUTH SHORE-ST. MARGARET'S and CENTRAL NOVA from the Conservatives, and puts DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR and perhaps even HALIFAX WEST back into the 'possible win' category from the Liberals. Add to this the effect the high Canadian dollar is having on three key Nova Scotia export industries, the lobster fishery, the pulp & paper industry, and the Christmas tree producers. There are going to be a lot more disgruntled voters in rural Nova Scotia next election, and along with the treatment of Bill Casey, voting Conservative is not going to be a very appealling prospect!
From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007
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V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193
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posted 15 December 2007 02:24 PM
quote: Originally posted by Lord Palmerston: Maybe it's his image of being some sort of maverick?
Maybe among the old reform crowd, but I believe the main reason is that he has a good constituency office that keeps him in the news, at events or in contact with organizations in the community, and that some people vote for him because they find him mildly charimatic or good-looking. On policy, he's a dud, and I'd be happy to see him lose, although- as has already been said- the NDP is most likely to win this seat if he (ever) retires...which seems unlikely.
From: - | Registered: May 2005
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Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901
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posted 16 December 2007 02:57 PM
quote: Originally posted by Stockholm: The ridings you cite have large wealthy old money populations and some history of having a Conservative base in them. Vancouver-Kingsway is a very working class riding that does not contain any of the "old money" parts of Vancouver. It's more like Davenport or Toronto-Danforth.If the federal Tories could get 18% of the vote in Trinity-Spadina or Danforth or Davenport - the NDP would be laughing all the way to the bank. Instead they are stuck in single digits.
Though result-wise, Vancouver Kingsway and Beaches-East York are most similar, with the CPC barely over deposit level and a similar gap between the Liberals and NDP (plus strong histories of going NDP).
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004
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West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697
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posted 16 December 2007 04:10 PM
Keith Martin is also vocally and vehemently opposed to sewage treatment in Greater Victoria and continues to write op-eds and columns about how the whole thing is a waste of money...even though he himself ran on a "made in BC" Liberal platform in 2006 that promised federal funding for sewage treatment! And Keith's buddies in the Campbell gov't are the ones that are (correctly) requiring the Capital Regional District to implement sewage treatment over the next 5-10 years.So, yes, Keith is definitely no environmentalist. He is unfortunately a very good constituency MP and has the "independent maverick" branding down pat (and he has publicly opposed the leadership and direction of every party he's belonged to, i.e. he refused to attend the big Paul Martin rally in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign). He will keep the seat unless the NDP is really surging and the central Lib campaign collapses (both of which are viable possibilities ) quote: as Teresa is apparently against abortion
That's a big slur to make against our NDP candidate in Newton North-Delta. I respectfully request you either provide evidence to support that statement or withdraw it. I have met Teresa and talked to other people about her and have heard absolutely no suggestion that she is anything but pro-choice on abortion. [ 16 December 2007: Message edited by: West Coast Lefty ]
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003
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