babble home
rabble.ca - news for the rest of us
today's active topics

Topic Closed  Topic Closed


  
FAQ | Forum Home
  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» babble   » current events   » canadian politics   » Fed NDP target ridings

Email this thread to someone!    
Author Topic: Fed NDP target ridings
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 12:17 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Should Canada have a fall election, these are the target ridings I see as real pick-up possibilities for the NDP. As they show real potential, the NDP should have a better than average possibility of recruiting star candidates for those ridings that don't already have them. I hope Federal Office will be some serious pre-writ attention to these ridings both in terms of developing organization on the ground and preparing strategies to win them.

Tier 1
Vancouver-Kingsway
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Edmonton-Strathcona
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Saskatoon Humboldt
Elmswood Transcona
Churchill
Beaches East-York
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
South Shore St. Margaret’s

Tier 2
Newton-North Delta
Nanaimo Alberni
Vancouver Centre
Regina Qu’Appelle
Palliser
Kenora
Davenport
Guelph
Welland
Hull-Aylmer
Westmount Ville-Marie
Dartmouth Cole-Harbour
Madawaska-Restigouche

Tier 3
York South Weston
Sudbury
Fleetwood-Port-Kells
Saint Boniface?
Winnepeg South Centre?

Any comments on my ranking? Did I miss any ridings ? Do I have some ranked too high?

ETA: Correction Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar not Saskatoon-Wanuskewin

[ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 12:29 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Of the ridings listed the only ones I consider to have star candidates are:

Tier 1
Beaches East York
Saskatchewan-Rosetown-Biggar

Tier 2
Guelph

Ridings with IMO strong contenders w/o star searches:

Target seats

Tier 1
Vancouver-Kingsway
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Edmonton-Strathcona
Elmswood Transcona
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin

The NDP and babblers should concentrate on finding stars for the rest (assuming they have not already nominated a candidate). These are:

ETA:
Tier 2
Davenport
Westmount Ville-Marie
Madawaska-Restigouche

Tier 3
York South Weston
Fleetwood-Port-Kells
Saint Boniface?
Winnepeg South Centre?

[ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174

posted 16 October 2007 12:34 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't thing Vancouver Centre or Dartmouth - Cole Harbour belong in Tier 2. You'd think that would not be true for DCH, but alas... I don't think many people here think there is much chance for VC. Both will get strong campaign resources, but that isn't because of the odds in the next election.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sara Mayo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3714

posted 16 October 2007 12:34 PM      Profile for Sara Mayo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd put Hull-Aylmer in tier 1. We must have at least one targetted riding in Quebec and that seems the most logical choice (especially since Pierre Ducasse is the candidate). And then in Tier 2 and 3 I'd add some other Quebec ridings such as NDG, Jeanne-Leber, Papineau, Rosemont-Petite Patrie, Lasalle-Emard depending on what big names Thomas Mulcair and Jack can recruit.
From: "Highways are monuments to inequality" - Enrique Penalosa | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 01:00 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I have some disagreements here:

In Tier 1 - I would add the following ridings:

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (the way the Liberals are in freefall - that unctuous twit Keith martin may finally find that his luck runs out)

Elmwood-Transcona is already a safe NDP seat so it really doesn't belong in a list of "pick-up opportunities"

I would remove Saskatoon-Wanuskewin and Saskatoon-Humboldt. Those seats both went CPC by very wide margins and the first on in particular includes some very socially conservative rural areas.

Much better prospects in Sask. would be Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Tory is retiring and Nettie Wiebe is running), Regina-Qu'Appelle and Desnethe-Missinnippi etc...

I would consider Welland a Tier 1

I would put Hull-Aylmer as a Tier 1 and also Abitibi-Baie James (NDP candidate is a big start in the Cree community)

Who knows what could happen in St. John's NF once Danny Williams takes aim at the federal Tories?


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 01:17 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
You're right. I meant to list Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar instead of Wanuskewin.

Change noted.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 01:31 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
You may be right about the others as well. I put Saskatoon-Humboldt in because of the NDP history and gains (relative to the provincial average) in the last election.

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is probably a Tier 2 riding, although I expect Keith Martin to hold. Nominating a woman was a good move, because the female-male vote split tends to favour the NDP among female voters on the Island and the current candidate will likely only widen that split. Martin, however, is a good constituency MP and despite a hard run campaign against his private health care views in 2006, he is still well liked. Some people even think he is really good looking

Abitibi-Baie James depends almost entirely on Romeo Saganash running. So if he runs, I'd put it at Tier 1 as well.

Other than the 4-way contested nomination, why would you put Welland at a Tier 1? Will it hurt the NDP that Malcolm Allen is a Pelham pol?

Regina-Qu'Appelle should also be a tier 1 riding. By the end of this thread I'll combine people's comments into a kind of "rabble consensus" target set.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 01:32 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So in terms of recruiting candidates to run in the targets listed so far that haven't got nominated candidates, I've heard the following suggestions bandied around before or offer my own:

Davenport: Alejandra Bravo, Peter Ferreira, Adam Giambrone

Westmount-Ville Marie: Julius Grey

York South Weston: Paul Ferreira

That still leaves the following ridings to fill:
Madawaska-Restigouche
Fleetwood-Port-Kells
Saint Boniface?
Winnepeg South Centre?

ETA:Jeanne-Le Ber
Papineau
Lasalle-Emard

[ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Life, the universe, everything
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13982

posted 16 October 2007 01:32 PM      Profile for Life, the universe, everything     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Depending on who the candidate is I would put Huron-Bruce in tier three.
Steckle is retiring.
The Liberal candidate is his riding assistant, but virtually unknown in most of the riding.
The Conservative candidate is the same one as the last time. However, much of the vote was a get rid of CAIS vote in the still large farm community. As a candidate he impressed no one and disappeared right after the election and has done no profile building. And now anyone running against a Conservative in SWO has a built in wedge issue with RMP. In the small towns the vote was more of we just want a change, although enough people were just voting for Paul.
Definetly not a top pick up obviously, but with the right candidate and some resources you never know.

From: a little to the left - a bit more-there perfect | Registered: Mar 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 01:37 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I consider Welland to be a Tier 1 because it was quite close last time despite a so-so NDP candidate and now Liberal support is very soft. The fact that Peter Kormos won the identical provincial seat last week by a huge margin also helps.

I'm told that Saganash definitely wants to run.

I will never understand what anyone sees in Doctor Professor Keith Martin. He is one of those people (along with Dubbya Bush - for other reasons) who I find so thoroughly nauseatingly grating and unctuous that anytime he is on TV, I have to press the "mute" button.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 October 2007 01:37 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
How about Oshawa?
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 01:38 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that in the current political climate, it will be very tough for the NDP to take a Conservative held seat in Ontario. Liberal seats are clearly the low hanging fruit.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 01:43 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Just out of curiosity, what are the chances Maria Augimeri could do well in either York South Weston or York West (a corner of which is in her ward)?
From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 01:45 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
How about Oshawa?

I disagree with Stockholm. Another obvious oversight on my part. I think what's debatable is whether it is Tier 1 or 2.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 October 2007 01:46 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP did very well in York West in the provincial election.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 October 2007 01:56 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
How about Sudbury - tier 3? The NDP came pretty close there last time.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 02:31 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think York West would clearly be winnable if the Liberals did really badly. I don't know about Maria Augimeri though - she now says she will vote against Miller's tax increase. Also, I think her municipal ward is entirely in York Centre not York West. I also think that the key to winning York West is to appeal to the burgeoning visible minority vote there and not to the old Italian crowd most of whom are either dying of old age or moving to Woodbridge.

Antoni Shelton did well there provincially. let's keep the momentum going.

[ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 02:32 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd like to pick up Oshawa, but seriously if the Conservatives were able to win there in both the 2003 and 2007 provincial elections and in the 2004 and 2006 federal elections - why would they lose it now?

Unless you think that Sid Ryan is the problem and that the NDP would do a lot better with someone else?


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 02:46 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
While I'm not a keen observer of Oshawa politics, my sense was Sid Ryan was the problem. It only takes a couple of campaigns to define you, and I think Sid Ryan defined himself as an unlikely winner by about the third campaign. That makes it harder and harder to win the bandwagon votes you need to put a candidate over the top in a tightly contested campaign. There is also the issue of him defining himself divisively on certain policy issues (e.g. Israel) that weren't likely to divide voters to his electoral advantage- like a textbook wedge issue does.

All that being said, what splits votes in Oshawa? Does the NDP do better among women than men? Does the NDP do better among certain ethnic groups than others? Are there other patterns that could be exploited to try and find a candidate that widen the gap between their vote share among those groups and the vote share of competitors? Are there demographic trends the NDP can jump on with the right candidate? etc.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 03:00 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
According to a previous babble thread, Maria Augimeri endorsed Paul Ferreira for his byelection run in York South Weston. If I am not mistaken her ward also includes the teeny eastern portion of York West from Keele to Jane south of Grandavine Drive.

Obviously, the NDP (federal, provincial, and pseudo-municipal) needs to start investing more seriously in the York ridings.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 October 2007 03:10 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
How about Sudbury - tier 3? The NDP came pretty close there last time.

The NDP closed the gap by about 2000 votes last time, but they still have over 4000 to go. If this seat is anything like the Toronto ridings the NDP won over 2 election cycles, it would seem a victory in Sudbury is still one election off. Even so, I can bump it up to Tier 2 if you think it merits the attention.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 03:11 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
...and let's not forget Nunavut!!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Will S
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13367

posted 16 October 2007 03:20 PM      Profile for Will S        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:

The NDP closed the gap by about 2000 votes last time, but they still have over 4000 to go. If this seat is anything like the Toronto ridings the NDP won over 2 election cycles, it would seem a victory in Sudbury is still one election off. Even so, I can bump it up to Tier 2 if you think it merits the attention.


Is the same candidate running for a third time? Sudbury should probably be in Tier 2, but I'm not sure. Sudbury didn't go NDP in 84 or 88, and the Libs are still doing pretty well in Ontario. Nickel Belt will be a pick up though. With the incumbent retiring it will switch back to the NDP.


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 16 October 2007 03:40 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Why hasn't Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre been mentioned? I'd place that above Sask-Humboldt...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 October 2007 03:59 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe add NDG-Lachine to tier 3?
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Will S
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13367

posted 16 October 2007 04:01 PM      Profile for Will S        Edit/Delete Post
I'd say some more Quebec seats look likely:

Liberal internal polls show they may lose all but two Quebec seats

I thought the party's Quebec problems were over blown. I guess I was wrong.


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 October 2007 04:03 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Wow two seats - I guess Irwin Cotler and Stephane Dion would be the only Quebec Liberals left in that scenario.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
babblerwannabe
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5953

posted 16 October 2007 04:14 PM      Profile for babblerwannabe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I hope Paul Ferreira will run federally..
From: toronto | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14090

posted 16 October 2007 05:53 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
I'd like to pick up Oshawa, but seriously if the Conservatives were able to win there in both the 2003 and 2007 provincial elections and in the 2004 and 2006 federal elections - why would they lose it now?

Unless you think that Sid Ryan is the problem and that the NDP would do a lot better with someone else?


I personally think that Sid could win this riding if the Buzz didn't say vote liberal and cut Sid off at the knees. It's the liberal vote each time that prevents Sid from winning. Personally I hope he runs here and wins.


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9327

posted 16 October 2007 06:01 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Tier Three:

Selkirk-Interlake, Manitoba


From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 October 2007 06:35 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I personally think that Sid could win this riding if the Buzz didn't say vote liberal and cut Sid off at the knees. It's the liberal vote each time that prevents Sid from winning. Personally I hope he runs here and wins.

The Liberal vote in Oshawa has been very low in the last federal election and in the last two provincial elections. Ryan just can't win, he can't get over 33% of the vote. I think he is a polarizing figure who many Liberals will never vote for. I think Hargrove is irrelevant.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8139

posted 16 October 2007 08:02 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Of the ridings listed the only ones I consider to have star candidates are:

Tier 1
Beaches East York
Saskatchewan-Rosetown-Biggar


Linda Duncan is definitely a star candidate in Edmonton Strathcona and we had over 300 people at her nomination meeting last January.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
BetterRed
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11865

posted 16 October 2007 08:41 PM      Profile for BetterRed     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The wikipedia article on the next possible election lists NDP as having 122 candidates nominated(as of August).

The same article lists Cons as having a surprising 209 candidates and Libs with puny 104.
For Greens I think the number was 64.

Whats the number of candidates for NDP right now?


From: They change the course of history, everyday ppl like you and me | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
NP
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 226

posted 16 October 2007 09:27 PM      Profile for NP   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I would actually put Regina Qu'Appelle, Palliser and Desenethe Churchill River ahead of Saskatoon Humboldt, in that order.
From: The city that rhymes with fun | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Left Turn
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8662

posted 16 October 2007 11:08 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think people are seriouly overestimating the likelihood of NDP pickups in Quebec. I suspect that In a general election the NDP will have to fight just to hold on to Outremont. I would target Hull-Aylmer for a pickup because Pierre Ducasse is the candidate, but I don't think they will win it or any other Quebec seats besides Outremont. I don't think the Liberals will suffer the meltdown in Quebec that some people suspect, though it would be great to see the NDP pick up a buch of seats in that province.

The only changes I anticipate in Quebec to the current standings are the Conservatives picking up a handful of seats from the Bloc.

[ 16 October 2007: Message edited by: Left Turn ]


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8139

posted 17 October 2007 10:05 AM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the NDP really are at 17% in Quebec, Outrement will be a comfortable hold and other seats are certainly in play with three or four way races. The Liberals seem to be in free fall in Quebec.
From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Pogo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 2999

posted 17 October 2007 10:42 AM      Profile for Pogo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Seat changes are most often incremental and changes are easily predicted by portioning our any aggregate gains or losses.

Less frequently the changes reach a tipping point and the voting patterns become very volatile. I think that a tipping point is being reached in Quebec. Independance is no longer the primary voting motivator. The Bloc's place on the left/right spectrum is now far more important. As its base is attracted to both the right and the left, holding their support over the long term is going to be almost impossible. At some point if the base has clearly eroded to a low level, people will abandon them in droves leaving only a core of ardent nationalists. The Liberals meanwhile have to now earn their votes in Quebec and they are not doing a good job.

I predict that either this election or the following election 50% of the Liberal and Bloc seats will be taken by other parties. At some point the Bloc will desolve or become insignificant (like Social Credit).


From: Richmond BC | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 17 October 2007 10:50 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Updated list:

Tier 1
Vancouver-Kingsway
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Edmonton-Strathcona
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Elmswood Transcona
Churchill
Beaches East-York
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
South Shore St. Margaret’s
Oshawa

Tier 2
Newton-North Delta
Nanaimo Alberni
Vancouver Centre
Regina Qu’Appelle
Palliser
Kenora
Davenport
Guelph
Welland
Hull-Aylmer
Westmount Ville-Marie
Dartmouth Cole-Harbour
Madawaska-Restigouche
Sudbury


Tier 3
York South Weston
Fleetwood-Port-Kells
Saskatoon Humboldt
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Jeanne-Le Ber
Saint Boniface?
Winnipeg South Centre?


Comments: Saskatchewan is the hardest area to rank in terms of its Tier 3 chances because the NDP runs a semi-distant second in so many ridings. There are also several unknowns, like what the state of the provincial NDP will be after November 7th and what the absence of Chris Axworthy's candidacy will mean in Saskatoon-Wanuskewin. Another unknown is how things will pan out for the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador. Danny Williams said in a recent CBC Politics interview that he will support the St. Johns candidates that have the best chance of beating the Tory incumbents. Could they be New Democrats? Does the NDP have star candidates hidden away? In Québec, a large question mark looms as well. The NDP was able to attract Bloc votes in Montréal to defeat a Liberal incumbent but with so many open nominations who knows where the NDP will be competitive. Using the Outremont case, I have listed those Québec seats with Liberal incumbents that may be vulnerable to a combined NDP-Bloc vote with a dip in Liberal support. This leaves out many areas where the NDP has the potential to substantially improve and maybe even win- given the right star candidate. My sense is that if Mulcair actually delivers on his 6 household names, there will be several ridings where the NDP will finish a strong second, setting it up for election XLI. Nunavut is also a toss-up with the incumbent retiring and the attention the NDP has paid to the riding. Babblers know though, that this race will come down most importantly to the individual candidates- and the NDP has yet to nominate.

So what do people think of the new list? And can they think of star candidates for any of the open nominations?


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 17 October 2007 10:57 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Davenport: Alejandra Bravo, Peter Ferreira, Adam Giambrone

Westmount-Ville Marie: Julius Grey

York South Weston: Paul Ferreira

That still leaves the following ridings to fill:

Oshawa
Jeanne-Le Ber
Papineau
Lasalle-Emard
Madawaska-Restigouche
Fleetwood-Port-Kells
Saint Boniface?
Winnepeg South Centre?

Oshawa is critical to fill, because it such a low-hanging riding.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 17 October 2007 12:16 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
With the Liberals in disarray in Québec, it would be great to hit them while they're down. If only Marlene Jennings was remotely poachable and remotely New Democrat. She was one of Dion's few Québec supporters and the et tu, Brute? moment would break the camel's back in my opinion. The Liberals would be lucky to walk away with two seats and La-Salle Émard would come into serious play for the NDP.

That being said, the NDP has plenty of star level sympathisers in Québec. It will just be a challenge to get them to take the leap into the electoral arena despite the victory of Mulcair. I would like to see the NDP greatly improve in Rosemont-Petit-Patrie next election. QS did well in one of the provincial ridings there.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 17 October 2007 04:16 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Aristotleded24:
Tier Three:

Selkirk-Interlake, Manitoba


If that's tier 3, then so might as well be Brant, w/its Derek Blackburn past and Ian Deans running there now...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 17 October 2007 04:24 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There's a pretty interesting discussion on the Election Prediction site about Westmount-Ville Marie. Here's a skeptical view on the likelihood of the NDP taking it:

quote:

First Nick, don't feel bad about disagreeing with us, we are putting some water in our wine after the NDP win in Outremont. We think that Westmount-Ville Marie may become a competetive riding for the NDP in the same way Vancouver Center is not (a long shot but not unreasonable). It all depends on whether or not the Mulcair win is something new for the NDP in Quebec or just going to be a historical curiosity. We don't see it happening yet (lets see what Layton and Mulcair can do), we still say Liberal hold.
King of Kensignton: NDG is not the plateau (read: those Bohemian types are not that big of a demographic). NDG is still dominated by Italians, Jews and a mix of other ethnic groups that traditionally (and still do) vote Liberal. Those intelligentsia and bohemian types are a much bigger demographic in lower Westmount than NDG (which would help the NDP). As for Mount Royal Jews and NDG Jews, they ARE the same. Obviously you never lived in the neighbourhood or else you would know that the Jews in Mount Royal (such as in the city of Cote Ste Luc) used to live in NDG before there was a CSL. Once CSL was built, they moved there. The current NDG Jewsish community are just the ones who didn't up and move.
As for Mulcair's win, a big factor, a VERY big factor was that he was (and is) very popular. He's the type of politician that can find support in diverse communities. That played a big role in his win. If the NDP can find someone like that to run in Westmount-Ville Marie, then we're going to be the first to say they ahve a fighting chance. Till then, we see this as becoming Montreal's answer to Vancouver Center.

From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sara Mayo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3714

posted 17 October 2007 05:24 PM      Profile for Sara Mayo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Sounds like whoever wrote that last quote hasn't been to NDG since 1952!

There is no significant Italian population there, and there are more Muslims that Jews in NDG now. There are in fact more francophones than anglophones in NDG these days.
http://tinyurl.com/3378xs

The Bloc is always a distant but significant second in that riding (20% last time) and many of those votes will switch quite easily to the NDP in the current climate, then add a few percentage points from dissafected liberals to our 2006 base line result of 12%, and then we become very competitive. But only a high calibre candidate can really take advantage of this and actually topple Marlene Jennings.

[ 17 October 2007: Message edited by: Sara Mayo ]


From: "Highways are monuments to inequality" - Enrique Penalosa | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 17 October 2007 06:26 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
NDG is actually split it into two ridings and I was actually talking about Westmount-Ville Marie. I don't believe that the western part of NDG makes up the majority of NDG-Lachine riding.

Still my Montreal geography isn't that great.

ETA: Here is a profile of the provincial riding of NDG. It still has a large Jewish population (9% by religion) and Italy is still the most common country of birth for the foreign-born. It is also has a much higher percentage of people with university degrees than Montreal generally.

http://tinyurl.com/yqdlh3

[ 17 October 2007: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 17 October 2007 10:22 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Marlene Jennings' riding includes Lachine and Dorval as well as part of NDG. At one time NDG was a riding of its own and the NDP nearly took it - but that was in the 1960s.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 18 October 2007 05:12 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
According to Sean Holman the NDP has already nominated a candidate in Fleetwood-Port Kells.
From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Island Woman
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14575

posted 18 October 2007 05:43 AM      Profile for Island Woman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Im curious why Algoma Manitoulin would be in Tier 1. The Liberal MP Brent St. Denis has been in for a few terms...do you know something we in the riding don't know? Or didn't think we could hope for?
From: Northern Ontario | Registered: Sep 2007  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5474

posted 18 October 2007 06:00 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:
According to Sean Holman the NDP has already nominated a candidate in Fleetwood-Port Kells.

Can you give us that link again, cause all that leads to is an archive for October?


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
davidt
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8006

posted 18 October 2007 08:08 AM      Profile for davidt   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Central Nova is a tier one.

The Greens are very weak in Nova Scotia and May has not caught on at all. Plus Peter is back in the Nova Scotia crap list after this latest flair up over old saint Casey.


From: hong kong | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 18 October 2007 10:04 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:

Can you give us that link again, cause all that leads to is an archive for October?


It's the last entry at the bottom of the page.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 18 October 2007 10:07 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So here's a weak stab at a Québec star candidates draft:

Françoise Gauthier in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord or (Jonquière-Alma)

Steven Guilbeault in NDG Lachine.

Michèle Audette - Manicouagan? Châteauguay—Saint-Constant?

Laure Waridel in Saint-Jean (candidate already nominated)? Somewhere in Montréal


Louise Vandelac
Somewhere in Montréal


Phil Edmonston
in Chambly-Borduas

Réal Menard in Hochelaga

Roméo Saganash in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

Julius Grey Wesmount-Ville Marie

[ 18 October 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]

ETA: Leo-Paul Lauzon in Laurier Sainte-Marie

[ 13 December 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Max Bialystock
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13870

posted 18 October 2007 10:13 AM      Profile for Max Bialystock     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm also curious if those views about NDG posted above are outdated.
From: North York | Registered: Feb 2007  |  IP: Logged
tzarina
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14098

posted 18 October 2007 10:21 AM      Profile for tzarina     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Most of you here are making comments that are equivalent of driving forward while looking at the back mirror. If past results were indication of future success Mulcair would have never won. The old retreads such as Sid Ryan will not going to do it either. He had his chances (how many times did he run?) and became a perpetual looser. We need fresh faces with some record of political success.Mulcair won because of his personal strenghts, not because of NDP ties. The polls tell you the whole story. We are stuck under 20% almost perpetually. The only way to get better parliamentary representation is to get others like Mulcair representing NDP. Otherwise we will be stuck spinning the wheels without moving forward, just like we did in the last provincial elections in Ontario and NFL.

Who on the NDP roster of candidates has been elected to anything before?


From: Sarnia | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
tzarina
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14098

posted 18 October 2007 10:50 AM      Profile for tzarina     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
By the way , I predict Julius Gray is going to win Westmount just as Mulcair did win Outremont. In my own riding (Sarnia-Lambton) did improve dramatically from the previous provincial elaction collecting over 11 thou votes. Still not enough to win but much better than historical showing. Two factors contributed to that. Hard work by candidate Barb Millitt and the federal candidate Andy Bruziewicz who raised interest in the party by chosing NDP. He is almost equivalent of Mulcair on the local scene. Elected many times to City Council and previously to the Hydro-Electric Commission, he was apparently approached by both the Libs (federal) and Cons (provincial) and decided on the NDP instead. And NDP never won federal seat here.

I think something is brewing here. Bruzzi would not run if he did not think he could make it. If he makes it it will be probably a three way race. Libs picked a total unknown, but have always been very well organized. Cons have incumbent script follower that may be tough, but not impossible to beat, if Harper is seen as best leader. Greens have a Liberal refugee that was running as independent last time and will likely be very marginal this time around as well.


From: Sarnia | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5474

posted 18 October 2007 11:38 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:


It's the last entry at the bottom of the page.



Okay, but I wonder who it is because the article doesn't say. There isn't any info at the NDP website either. Interesting thing about that list though, I could imagine only one of those seats realistically going NDP - Cariboo-Prince George which could be considered third tier with a strong candidate. But it's probably more like fourth tier if an election is held any time soon with an average candidate.

[ 18 October 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 18 October 2007 12:01 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, I have no idea who got nominated there either.

Cariboo-Prince George remains within the list of NDP longshot possibilities, but it would require a 1988 style romp. The NDP's best bet there is to run someone who was/is popular as a provincial MLA in the lesser NDP of the local provincial ridings. Even then its long odds.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1299

posted 18 October 2007 12:29 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Island Woman:
Im curious why Algoma Manitoulin would be in Tier 1.

Probably something to do with the improvement in the 2006 results over the 2004 results. Carol Hughes was just over a thousand votes behind in 2006.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
montrealais
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9163

posted 18 October 2007 01:20 PM      Profile for montrealais   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tzarina:
Mulcair won because of his personal strenghts, not because of NDP ties.

Mulcair's personal profile was definitely essential, but I don't think he would have won if he had run for (say) the Conservatives. When campaigning for him, I heard a fair amount of "I like Mulcair," but I heard way more "You're right on Afghanistan" or "You're right on the environment" than that.


From: Montreal | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Island Woman
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14575

posted 18 October 2007 03:56 PM      Profile for Island Woman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks Scott for answering my question about Algoma Manitoulin- for some reason I completely forgot how close Carol Hughes had come last time! Given that I had just met her when she was campaigning with Peter Denley last month...
From: Northern Ontario | Registered: Sep 2007  |  IP: Logged
Will S
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13367

posted 18 October 2007 04:15 PM      Profile for Will S        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tzarina:
By the way , I predict Julius Gray is going to win Westmount just as Mulcair did win Outremont.

Apparently he'll be going up against Marc Garneau. This should be interesting!

Garneau is back in

[ 18 October 2007: Message edited by: Will S ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 18 October 2007 04:19 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That will likely make Westmount-VM harder to crack for the NDP but maybe people will reject another Dion-appointed candidate.

Let's hope that view of NDG I posted above is outdated!


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
tzarina
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14098

posted 19 October 2007 01:02 PM      Profile for tzarina     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Gray will win Garneau or not. Actually reasonably strong lib will help to split Cons vote. Libs are going nowhere in Quebec but we need them reasonably strong so we don't get blown out by cons.
From: Sarnia | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
David Young
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14805

posted 09 December 2007 08:56 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What about a riding like Brant?

Former Hamilton NDP M.P. Ian Deans is running there, and that riding voted NDP for Derek Blackburn from 1971 to 1993.

Or Welland? The provincial NDP strength in that riding may be enough to put that seat in the win column.


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697

posted 09 December 2007 07:41 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Tier 1
Vancouver-Kingsway
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Edmonton-Strathcona
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Elmswood Transcona
Churchill
Beaches East-York
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
South Shore St. Margaret’s
Oshawa

I guess the list above is OK - I'd question whether Oshawa is a Tier 1 riding, and Vancouver-Kingsway is not as winnable as it looks. The demographic trends in that riding are not good for the NDP - the 2005 BC election confirmed that the NDP vote is much stronger in the Indo-Canadian community than in the Chinese-Canadian community. We lost 2 seats in Burnaby largely for that reason in 2005. I think Newton North-Delta is just as likely as Kingsway or Kamloops and should be moved up to Tier 1 - our NDP candidate in Newton is a very credible Delta school trustee. Newton-ND is the kind of seat the NDP has done well in over the last 2-3 federal and provincial elections.

We should also have at least 1 Quebec seat in Tier 1 - I'd argue Saganash's riding in Abitibi rather than Ducasse in Hull-Aylmer.

Also, are there any Nova Scotia seats in Tier 1? We are doing so well in NS provincially that we should have at least 1 if not several Nova Scotia seats in Tier 1.

quote:

Tier 2
Newton-North Delta
Nanaimo Alberni
Vancouver Centre
Regina Qu’Appelle
Palliser
Kenora
Davenport
Guelph
Welland
Hull-Aylmer
Westmount Ville-Marie
Dartmouth Cole-Harbour
Madawaska-Restigouche
Sudbury

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca should be added to Tier 2 - it is more winnable than either Nanaimo-Alberni or Vancouver Centre, in my view, though all 3 are pretty long shots. Esquimalt will go NDP once Keith Martin retires, just as Victoria went NDP after David Anderson left the scene. Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires. Alberni is a very tough seat federally, the demographic trends with lots of Alberta retirees moving to mid-Island communities are not good for the NDP.


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 09 December 2007 07:51 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Lefty:
Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires.

The wild card there are the Greens. Will Adrienne Carr take more from the Liberals or the NDP?

The NDP actually came quite close in '04 with a low profile candidate but lost ground with Svend in '06 (no doubt the national media attention to his presence hurt him - I don't think the drop can be entirely or mainly attributed to a few more condos being built).


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 09 December 2007 08:17 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Vancouver-Kingsway is not as winnable as it looks. The demographic trends in that riding are not good for the NDP - the 2005 BC election confirmed that the NDP vote is much stronger in the Indo-Canadian community than in the Chinese-Canadian community. We lost 2 seats in Burnaby largely for that reason in 2005.

Yes, but both of the provincial seats that make up the federal riding of Kingsway went NDP by wide margins in 2005.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697

posted 09 December 2007 08:41 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Provincially is a two-way race in BC, there is no equivalent of the centrist federal Liberals. There are tons of BC NDP voters who vote Liberal and in some cases Conservative federally. The provincial results are not a good predictor of what might happen federally.
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 10 December 2007 05:29 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's still indicative of something. The federal NDP won both Burnaby seats federally, but the provincial NDP only took 1 out of 4 provincial Burnaby seats - yet you use the provincial results in Burnaby to make a point about federal prospects there.

Kingsway is no sure thing, but i think the fact that both provincial seats went NDP by a very wide margin certainly indicates that the federal seat is highly winnable - esp. with no incumbent and the Liberals still recovering from the Emerson "imbroglio".


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5422

posted 10 December 2007 09:03 AM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Vancouver Kingsway federally is cobbled together almost equally from a portion of three provincial seats, including Vancouver Fairview (Oak to Main St), Vancouver Kensington (Main St. to Kingsway/Nanaimo), and Vancouver Kingsway (Nanaimo/Kingsway to Boundary).

Based upon the individual poll results for 2005, provincially those boundaries would likely go Lib just marginally. Generally speaking, the Chinese Canadian vote has a tendancy to vote Lib while the Indo-Canadian vote has a tendancy to vote NDP.

Take Vancouver Kensington provincially for example. The eastern half (east of Inverness) went Lib, while the western half went NDP and that includes the portions of federal Vancouver South.

And each of the ridings are not unison internally in terms of individual polls. For example, the portion of Vancouver Fairview (the narrow NDP win provincially) that is in Vancouver Kingsway federally leans Lib provincially.

Just noticed that a small portion of a fourth provincial constituency (Vancouver Langara) is also included in Vancouver Kingsway federally (between 41st/33rd and Main/Oak).

Now that's what I call a mix and match!

[ 10 December 2007: Message edited by: Centrist ]


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 10 December 2007 09:07 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not so sure about that since the NDP won two of those three seats by pretty solid margins and lost the third narrowly. Plus in a federal election, the rightwing vote is split between the Liberals and Conservatives instead of all going to the BC Liberals the way it does in a provincial election.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 10 December 2007 03:37 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Problem is that the Tory vote is very low in East Vancouver so the bulk of the anti-NDP vote goes to the Liberals. Still the NDP has a history in Kingsway and came pretty close in '04.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 10 December 2007 05:47 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's not that low. in 2006, the no-name CPC candidate in Kingsway got 18% of the vote.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jonas
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12307

posted 11 December 2007 05:18 AM      Profile for Jonas     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Do you know how depressing it is NEVER to see your riding on one of these lists?

Just thought I'd throw that out there......


From: Ottawa | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 11 December 2007 12:30 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
It's not that low. in 2006, the no-name CPC candidate in Kingsway got 18% of the vote.

That sounds pretty low to me - about the same % as in Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie, Beaches-East York and Toronto-Rosedale.

[ 11 December 2007: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 11 December 2007 12:48 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The ridings you cite have large wealthy old money populations and some history of having a Conservative base in them. Vancouver-Kingsway is a very working class riding that does not contain any of the "old money" parts of Vancouver. It's more like Davenport or Toronto-Danforth.

If the federal Tories could get 18% of the vote in Trinity-Spadina or Danforth or Davenport - the NDP would be laughing all the way to the bank. Instead they are stuck in single digits.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 11 December 2007 02:29 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
Newton North-Delta ?

Tier 2?

It will go again Liberal or maybe Green but not NDP.
Nancy Clegg has moved to Point Grey and is no longer the NDP candidate.

Some of Nancy's old executive have all quit the NDP and joined to support the Green candidate after he wasn't allowed to re-seek the NDP nomination for the 3rd time because he had challenged the NDP presidential elections in Quebec City September 2006 and Layton himself at the Emerson meeting over his lack of addressing the drug war.

Now with Harper's Bill C- 26 marching ahead as the NDP strangely staying silent and the Greens now publicly and fully supporting re-legalizing cannabis the Green candidate is even collapsing the BC Marijuana Party as he takes senior members on as Green candidates.

I would forget about Newton North Delta unless you want a list of "for sure lost seats".
Hey think what ever.
Now provincially I see the Ndp decimated as they drop the left over scraps to the Green Party here next time.


From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5422

posted 11 December 2007 02:50 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Vancouver-Kingsway is a very working class riding that does not contain any of the "old money" parts of Vancouver.

True, but it ain't the old pre-1990 working-class east side anymore. The area still comprises mostly single-family homes and the price range?

A tear-down comes as cheap as ~$500,000 and everything else goes up from there... up to the ~$1.4 million range.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 11 December 2007 03:17 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
But incomes aren't very high in that riding. I imagine there are lots of multi-generational households and a good number of people renting out part of their houses. Also I don't know if being "house rich" and cash poor makes people less likely to vote NDP.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 11 December 2007 04:33 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Some of Nancy's old executive have all quit the NDP and joined to support the Green candidate after he wasn't allowed to re-seek the NDP nomination for the 3rd time because he had challenged the NDP presidential elections in Quebec City September 2006 and Layton himself at the Emerson meeting over his lack of addressing the drug war.

The person you are referring to is a TOTAL lunatic.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 11 December 2007 06:22 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
Was he a lunatic when he was Guy Gentners officially approved nominated opponent as well provincially ? Nancy Clegg endorsed him as her replacement and a lot of ndp are not too impressed with the ndp for the second time dictating their candidates.
Lunatic because he argued with you and left an impression no doubt.
There is no point Mr stockholm as everyone here for sure knows you are "Mr. ndp".....hello Mr.layton

From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 11 December 2007 06:51 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I also think that a quick way for an NDP candidate to get blown out of the water is to run on a single issue flaky "let's legalize marijuana" campaign. We have the Marijuana Party for that. That would marginalize you enough in a place like Van Centre - let alone in a suburban riding like Newton-North Delta that has one of the largest Indo-Canadian populations of any riding in Canada.

and, by the way, if you think that there is even the remotest chance of Newton-North Delta (of all places) being the first riding in Canada to elect a so-called Green candidate - I have to ask what have you been smoking???

[ 11 December 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 11 December 2007 07:07 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
Well I guess we can all have our posts first cleared by you just for relevance.
Myself as I am planning to actually vote for the one who seems to have struck such a nerve with you, maybe leave it at that,hmmm?
As you wont be voting here please afford me some space from your opinion about the Greens as its clear your indoctrination.
You cant teach an old dog new tricks. Nor would I try.

From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3276

posted 11 December 2007 07:54 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by yvonne tailer:
Newton North-Delta ?

Nancy Clegg has moved to Point Grey and is no longer the NDP candidate.



Teresa Townsley:
quote:
  • Elected as a Delta School Trustee in 2005
  • Municipal appointee on the Delta Police Board
  • Former emergency room nurse and emergency nursing research consultant
  • Chaired Nursing Research at Surrey Memorial Hospital
  • One of the first sexual assault nurse examiners certified in B.C., with extensive experience in evidence collection and providing expert testimony in court
  • Volunteer choir director for 20 years, at St. Bernadette’s in Newton and Immaculate Conception in North Delta
  • Active in Parent Advisory Councils and School Planning Council
  • Writer and advocate for literacy, initiating a program that allows young authors to publish in the school community
  • Member of the Board of Directors of a program for riders with physical limitations
  • Raised and educated in Delta
  • Lives in the community with her husband, Bill, and their two children.

Sounds good to me.

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 12 December 2007 09:43 AM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
Yes she seems to be a nice person make no mistake but not MP material in my view.
It is the liberal who I think stands the best chance here, as I have already said. Incumbent....
I wont be voting for the Ndp here no matter who runs for the Ndp ,nor will my friends (many) as I do not believe the abortion issue needs to be re-addressed and as Teresa is apparently against abortion I must choose another candidate.

She did also just join the party only for the nomination (days before) and was allowed to win acclaimed.

I know the Delta Police sure don't want a Green victory but yes many of us here are voting Green and I can assure you I will bet that the Ndp doesn't even come close this time.

The Ndp tried provincially to take away the North Delta members choices and failed.
Federally they were successful in their quest to remove a choice.
Time will tell as to how many like me leave the Ndp and yes vote Green.

I must confess though things like this are really the reason why.

From Ms May - Green Party Leader

http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3360

One of the most frequently asked questions...
I am often asked how the Green Party differs from the other parties.

For a quick spot check, I put this little list of “ONLY’s” together. We are the ONLY party calling for the following:

A carbon tax, an indispensable step in getting the prices right in energy choices and allowing reduced income and payroll taxes.
“Income-splitting” to reduce the tax burden on middle class couples.
A continuing role in Afghanistan but within a transformed U.N. mission, legalizing and regulating the poppy trade for medicinal use, and bringing in more Islamic nations into the peace-keeping, security efforts in Southern Afghanistan through the U.N.
An end to asbestos mining and export to developing countries. (truly outrageous that for all the talk about asbestos, only the Green Party is prepared to call for banning mining and export.)
The phase out of nuclear power and uranium mining.
The reform of the Divorce Act to make family law less of a battleground.
To launch a national dialogue toward a Guaranteed Livable Income.
The legalization of marijuana, to be controlled, regulated and taxed.
The six month notice to get out of NAFTA with immediate re-negotiation of key provisions.

........ continued in the link ...enjoy
I hope that is posted right.


From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 12 December 2007 11:08 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
“Income-splitting” to reduce the tax burden on middle class couples.
A continuing role in Afghanistan but within a transformed U.N. mission, legalizing and regulating the poppy trade for medicinal use, and bringing in more Islamic nations into the peace-keeping, security efforts in Southern Afghanistan through the U.N.

I'm glad to know some people will vote so-called Green because they want Canada to continue to wage war in Afghanistan and because they back neo-con tax cut Trojan Horses like "income-splitting" - this just confirms what I have always suspected that the Greens are actually a small "c" conservative party that maybe likes to have people compost more often.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 12 December 2007 01:07 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

I'm glad to know some people will vote so-called Green because they want Canada to continue to wage war in Afghanistan and because they back neo-con tax cut Trojan Horses like "income-splitting" - this just confirms what I have always suspected that the Greens are actually a small "c" conservative party that maybe likes to have people compost more often.



I am just glad you are glad.
I don't have your pull here so I will leave it at that arguing with some one like you is beneath my intelligence threshold.

I think its pretty clear who you would vote for.

It should be clear to you as well who I will vote for just to counteract at least your vote.

Thank you Mr.Layton for single handily , so far doubling the Canadian Green Party support, keep it up please.

Dion minority and Green seats is how I see it.

I will be so excited just to read here the next day.
As I say Newton North Delta will not be going ndp any time soon, not by a long shot.
I am still allowed an opinion though am I not?
Maybe see layton about changing that.

[ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: yvonne tailer ]

[ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: yvonne tailer ]


From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 12 December 2007 02:58 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by yvonne tailer:
Dion minority and Green seats is how I see it.

If there is a single Green seat in the House after the next election, it will only be because the Liberals have completely disintegrated. I'm afraid your scenario is an ephemeral fantasy.

From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Treetop
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9699

posted 12 December 2007 03:25 PM      Profile for Treetop     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by yvonne tailer:

..the Green candidate is even collapsing the BC Marijuana Party as he takes senior members on as Green candidates.

[/qb]


People I know on the Vancouver Centre NDP riding association have informed me that Marc Emery had twice written to them last year with his intentions of trying to seek the nomination there.

A couple of cold shoulders later and he changed his mind.

[ 12 December 2007: Message edited by: Treetop ]


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 12 December 2007 07:12 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
..the Green candidate is even collapsing the BC Marijuana Party as he takes senior members on as Green candidates.

OH MY GOD!! The so-called Green Party is taking "senior members" (is there even such a thing) of the Marijuana Party as candidates. With that kind of massive support what can stop them from sweeping the country!!! All they have to do now is get backing from some "senior members" of the Canada Action Party, plus a few remnants of the Natural Law Party and i swear they will win every seat in Parliament!!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 12 December 2007 08:30 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
They were credited with causing Dion's win over Kennedy and we have the newspaper article to prove that as well as emails from Kennedy himself at the time when his cowardice sent all our delegates over to Dion with his very weak comments about cannabis.

Again I am allowed an opinion and no Marc Emery is not wanted as a candidate by us either.
The Marijuana Party has some very good and motivated people.
Some of these others are very welcome and will be forth coming. The Marijuana Party had an ex mayor , school teachers ,Lawyers and many other Professionals to choose from.

If we don't matter why be so concerned?

Harper himself is setting the agenda and helping the Greens what with Layton's cowardice over a perceived back lash from standing up for the 3 million cannabis voters he pretended to be wanting to help in 2003.

Stay tuned but I stand by my view.


From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 13 December 2007 04:54 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Sounds like someone has been smoking something....
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 13 December 2007 10:05 AM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Stay tuned but I stand by my view.
I await your next visions with bated breath.

From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Robo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4168

posted 13 December 2007 10:06 AM      Profile for Robo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by yvonne tailer:
They were credited with causing Dion's win over Kennedy and we have the newspaper article to prove that ...

Wow, a newspaper article? Who could ask for any more proof? (Perhaps anyone listening to either side in the Mulroney/Schrieber affair at present...)


From: East York | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 13 December 2007 03:12 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Lefty:

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca should be added to Tier 2 - it is more winnable than either Nanaimo-Alberni or Vancouver Centre, in my view, though all 3 are pretty long shots. Esquimalt will go NDP once Keith Martin retires, just as Victoria went NDP after David Anderson left the scene. Similarly, the NDP has a decent shot at Vancouver Centre once Hedy Fry retires. Alberni is a very tough seat federally, the demographic trends with lots of Alberta retirees moving to mid-Island communities are not good for the NDP.


I somewhat agree with you. I would add however, that Nanaimo Alberni has a weak incumbent backbencher while Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca has a (strangely) popular incumbent who has suceeded in getting elected under three (four?) different party banners- and that isn't the only time he's tried to reinvent himself politically. He also has a hardworking constituency office.

[ 13 December 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 13 December 2007 04:12 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe it's his image of being some sort of maverick?
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 13 December 2007 04:40 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re Newton-North Delta, I'd think it'd be too ethnoburban to go Green...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
David Young
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14805

posted 14 December 2007 03:30 PM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A new poll here in Nova Scotia shows the provincial N.D.P. gaining strength and moving further into the lead, the ruling Conservatives at the same level of support, and the 3rd-place Liberals in decline.

This means an increased chance at winning SOUTH SHORE-ST. MARGARET'S and CENTRAL NOVA from the Conservatives, and puts DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR and perhaps even HALIFAX WEST back into the 'possible win' category from the Liberals.

Add to this the effect the high Canadian dollar is having on three key Nova Scotia export industries, the lobster fishery, the pulp & paper industry, and the Christmas tree producers. There are going to be a lot more disgruntled voters in rural Nova Scotia next election, and along with the treatment of Bill Casey, voting Conservative is not going to be a very appealling prospect!


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 15 December 2007 02:24 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
Maybe it's his image of being some sort of maverick?

Maybe among the old reform crowd, but I believe the main reason is that he has a good constituency office that keeps him in the news, at events or in contact with organizations in the community, and that some people vote for him because they find him mildly charimatic or good-looking.

On policy, he's a dud, and I'd be happy to see him lose, although- as has already been said- the NDP is most likely to win this seat if he (ever) retires...which seems unlikely.


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 15 December 2007 03:59 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The inexplicable personal popularity of Doctor Professor Keith martin is one of the great mysteries to me. There are other politicians that I personally don't like but I can at least see what it is about them that might attract other people. but in the case of keith martin it just mystifies me. From the first time I ever saw him on TV when he was a Reform Party MP leading the charge to privatize the health care system to when he suddenly decided the new CPC was too socially conservative for him (despite having won three straight elections running for the Reform party/Canadian alliance when they were led by even scarier people like Manning and Day) I have to say that I find him one of the most unctuous, sanctimonious, grating, repulsive people in Canadian public life, The sound of his voice is like finger nails down a black board!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 15 December 2007 04:57 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
How's Keith Martin on the environment? I can almost see someone like him jumping to the Greens should he see eMay gaining momentum...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 15 December 2007 05:01 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I guess his record would have to be at least as good as Garth Turner's to qualify.

[ 15 December 2007: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 15 December 2007 05:19 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
We will take him!
I am happy some ones voice alone does this to you.
Karma I guess.
Don't we lock these threads at 100 posts?
Go Green because we don't sound like chalk boards.....yet.

From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 15 December 2007 05:40 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's nice to know that the Green party would welcome with open arms a proponent of privatization of the health care system.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 15 December 2007 05:51 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by yvonne tailer:
We will take him!
I am happy some ones voice alone does this to you.
Karma I guess.
Don't we lock these threads at 100 posts?
Go Green because we don't sound like chalk boards.....yet.

Actually, Green Party members and candidates have been doing their best imitation of nails on a chalkboard here for years.

From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9193

posted 16 December 2007 09:48 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Keith Martin discovered his passionate commitment to the environment in the last all candidates debate of the 2006 campaign. Prior to that the only thing I know him to be on the record for is opposing the Species at Risk Act.

[ 16 December 2007: Message edited by: V. Jara ]


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 December 2007 02:57 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
The ridings you cite have large wealthy old money populations and some history of having a Conservative base in them. Vancouver-Kingsway is a very working class riding that does not contain any of the "old money" parts of Vancouver. It's more like Davenport or Toronto-Danforth.

If the federal Tories could get 18% of the vote in Trinity-Spadina or Danforth or Davenport - the NDP would be laughing all the way to the bank. Instead they are stuck in single digits.


Though result-wise, Vancouver Kingsway and Beaches-East York are most similar, with the CPC barely over deposit level and a similar gap between the Liberals and NDP (plus strong histories of going NDP).


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697

posted 16 December 2007 04:10 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Keith Martin is also vocally and vehemently opposed to sewage treatment in Greater Victoria and continues to write op-eds and columns about how the whole thing is a waste of money...even though he himself ran on a "made in BC" Liberal platform in 2006 that promised federal funding for sewage treatment! And Keith's buddies in the Campbell gov't are the ones that are (correctly) requiring the Capital Regional District to implement sewage treatment over the next 5-10 years.

So, yes, Keith is definitely no environmentalist. He is unfortunately a very good constituency MP and has the "independent maverick" branding down pat (and he has publicly opposed the leadership and direction of every party he's belonged to, i.e. he refused to attend the big Paul Martin rally in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign). He will keep the seat unless the NDP is really surging and the central Lib campaign collapses (both of which are viable possibilities )

quote:
as Teresa is apparently against abortion

That's a big slur to make against our NDP candidate in Newton North-Delta. I respectfully request you either provide evidence to support that statement or withdraw it. I have met Teresa and talked to other people about her and have heard absolutely no suggestion that she is anything but pro-choice on abortion.

[ 16 December 2007: Message edited by: West Coast Lefty ]


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
yvonne tailer
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14732

posted 16 December 2007 07:19 PM      Profile for yvonne tailer        Edit/Delete Post
Maybe you should ask her.... as I did.
From: Vancouver ,BC | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 16 December 2007 08:03 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd be more concerned about the fact that the leader of the so-called Green Party is against abortion and considers women who have them to be making a "frivolous" decision.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
M.Gregus
babble intern
Babbler # 13402

posted 17 December 2007 07:00 AM      Profile for M.Gregus     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Closing for length.
From: capital region | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged
M.Gregus
babble intern
Babbler # 13402

posted 17 December 2007 07:00 AM      Profile for M.Gregus     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Closing for length.
From: capital region | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged

All times are Pacific Time  

   Open Topic    Move Topic    Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
Hop To:

Contact Us | rabble.ca | Policy Statement

Copyright 2001-2008 rabble.ca