quote:

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An unknown number of these beautiful migrating birds will carry H5N1, the avian flu subtype that has killed 61 people in Southeast Asia and which the World Health Organization (WHO) fears is on the verge of mutating into a pandemic form like that which killed 50 to 100 million people in the fall of 1918. As the birds arrive in the wetlands of South Asia, they will excrete the virus into the water where it risks spreading to migrating waterfowl from Europe as well as to domestic poultry. In the worst-case scenario, this will bring avian flu to the doorstep of the dense slums of Dhaka, Kolkata, Karachi, and Mumbai.

[snip]

The new U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the Associated Press in early August that an influenza pandemic was now an "absolute certainty," echoing repeated warnings from the World Health Organization that it was "inevitable." Likewise Science magazine observed that expert opinion held the odds of a global outbreak as "100 percent."

In the same grim spirit, the British press revealed that officials were scouring the country for suitable sites for mass mortuaries, based on official fears that avian flu could kill as many as 700,000 Britons.

[snip]

"People just don't get it," Dr. Michael Osterholm, the outspoken director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota recently complained. "If we were to begin a Manhattan Project-type response tonight to expand vaccine and drug production, we wouldn't have a measurable impact on the availability of these critical products to sufficiently address a worldwide pandemic for at least several years."

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quote:

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North American sales of the drug oseltamivir have more than tripled in recent months, a trend public health experts see as evidence individuals are stockpiling the once little-used antiviral as a hedge against a possible flu pandemic. A leading advocate for pandemic preparedness is concerned public demand could soon outstrip the limited global supply.

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Geographical spread of H5N1 avian influenza in birds - update 28
Situation assessment and implications for human health

18 August 2005

Beginning in late July 2005, official reports to the OIE from government authorities indicate that the H5N1 virus has expanded its geographical range. Both Russia and Kazakhstan reported outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry in late July, and confirmed H5N1 as the causative agent in early August. Deaths in migratory birds, infected with the virus, have also been reported. Outbreaks in both countries have been attributed to contact between domestic birds and wild waterfowl via shared water sources.

These are the first outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza recorded in the two countries. Both countries were previously considered free of the virus.

Since the initial reports, the Russian H5N1 outbreak in poultry, which has remained confined to Siberia, has spread progressively westward to affect 6 administrative regions. In Kazakhstan, several villages bordering the initial outbreak site in Siberia are now known to have experienced disease in poultry. To date, outbreaks in the two countries have involved some large farms as well as small backyard flocks, with close to 120,000 birds dead or destroyed in Russia and more than 9,000 affected in Kazakhstan.

In early August, Mongolia issued an emergency report following the death of 89 migratory birds at two lakes in the northern part of the country. Avian influenza virus type A has been identified as the cause, but the virus strain has not yet been determined. Samples have been shared with WHO reference laboratories and are currently being investigated. Also in early August, an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry was detected in Tibet, China.

In all of these recent outbreaks, authorities have announced control measures in line with FAO and OIE recommendations for highly pathogenic avian influenza. To date, no human cases have been detected, vigilance is high, and rumours are being investigated by local authorities.

The outbreaks in Russia and Kazakhstan provide evidence that H5N1 viruses have spread beyond their initial focus in south-east Asian countries, where outbreaks are now known to have begun in mid-2003. Despite aggressive control efforts, FAO has warned that the H5N1 virus continues to be detected in many parts of Viet Nam and Indonesia and in some parts of Cambodia, China, Thailand, and possibly also Laos. The south-east Asian outbreaks, which have resulted in the death or destruction of more than 150 million birds, have had severe consequences for agriculture and most especially for the many rural farmers who depend on small backyard flocks for income and food. Human cases, most of which have been linked to direct contact with diseased or dead poultry in rural areas, have been confirmed in four countries: Viet Nam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Only a few instances of limited human-to-human transmission have been recorded. Poultry outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in Japan, Malaysia, and the Republic of Korea were successfully controlled.

WHO fully agrees with FAO and OIE that control of avian influenza infection in wild bird populations is not feasible and should not be attempted. Wild waterfowl have been known for some time to be the natural reservoir of all influenza A viruses. Migratory birds can carry these viruses, in their low pathogenic form, over long distances, but do not usually develop signs of illness and only rarely die of the disease. The instances in which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been detected in migratory birds are likewise rare, and the role of these birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza remains poorly understood.

Very large die-offs of migratory birds from avian influenza, such as the one detected at the end of April at Qinghai Lake in central China, in which more than 6,000 birds died, are considered unusual. Research published in July indicates that H5N1 viruses in that outbreak are similar to viruses that have been circulating in south-east Asia for the last two years.

Analyses of viruses from the Russian outbreak, recently published on the OIE website, show apparent similarity to viruses isolated from migratory birds during the Qinghai Lake outbreak. Specimens from the Mongolian outbreak in migratory birds should also prove useful in shedding light on these recent developments. Monitoring the spread and evolution of avian H5N1 viruses in birds and rapidly comparing these results with previously characterized H5N1 viruses is an essential activity for assessing the risk of pandemic influenza.

Implications for human health

The poultry outbreaks in Russia and Kazakhstan are caused by a virus that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability, in outbreaks in Hong Kong in 1997, in Hong Kong in 2003, and in south-east Asia since early 2004, to cross the species barrier to infect humans, causing severe disease with high fatality. A similar risk of human cases exists in areas newly affected with H5N1 disease in poultry.

Experience in south-east Asia indicates that human cases of infection are rare, and that the virus does not transmit easily from poultry to humans. To date, the majority of human cases have occurred in rural areas. Most, but not all, human cases have been linked to direct exposure to dead or diseased poultry, notably during slaughtering, defeathering, and food preparation. No cases have been confirmed in poultry workers or cullers. No cases have been linked to the consumption of properly cooked poultry meat or eggs.

Factors relating to poultry densities and farming systems seen in different countries may also influence the risk that human cases will occur. During a 2003 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, caused by the H7N7 strain, in the Netherlands, more than 80 cases of conjunctivitis were detected in poultry workers, cullers, and their close contacts, and one veterinarian died. That event, which was contained following the destruction of around 30 million poultry, underscores the need for newly affected countries to follow FAO/OIE/WHO recommended precautions when undertaking control measures in affected farms.

Pandemic risk assessment

The possible spread of H5N1 avian influenza to poultry in additional countries cannot be ruled out. WHO recommends heightened surveillance for outbreaks in poultry and die-offs in migratory birds, and rapid introduction of containment measures, as recommended by FAO and OIE. Heightened vigilance for cases of respiratory disease in persons with a history of exposure to infected poultry is also recommended in countries with known poultry outbreaks. The provision of clinical specimens and viruses, from humans and animals, to WHO and OIE/FAO reference laboratories allows studies that contribute to the assessment of pandemic risk and helps ensure that work towards vaccine development stays on course.

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anti-bird-flu drugs

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Tamiflu is an antiviral - the govt is also stockpiling it. 'Course, no guarantees it'll be effective against a pandemic, especially if its improperly used early in, and resistance develops. And, its really not all that helpful either. Must be taken within the first 48 hours, and then it only lessens the course by 1.5-2 days. And it has a maximium shelf life of 5 years.

Check out the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan if you want to know how the government is preparing!

quote:

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Originally posted by swirrlygrrl:

Check out the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan if you want to know how the government is preparing!

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Or visit the Canada page at the Flu Wiki for that link as well as links to other national and provincial resources.

[ 23 August 2005: Message edited by: pogge ]

Deadly flu: `The only question is when'

quote:

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The deadly avian flu virus is slowly but surely making its way around the world.

It now appears all but inevitable that it will arrive in North America this year or next, via migrating birds or, more likely, unwitting travellers, as with SARS in 2003.

The virus has already ravaged the poultry stocks of Southeast Asia and millions of peoples' livelihoods. It has also begun to kill other animals, including pigs, tigers and civet cats.

More forebodingly, if still only sporadically, it has crossed over into humans.

In the last two years, at least 109 people have caught the respiratory virus after being in close contact with diseased poultry. With little or no immunity — and no vaccine — about 60 of them died. Perhaps more.

China isn't saying, though it was there that this year's outbreak began, in April, with 6,000 dead wild birds.

The threat is now on Europe's doorstep, poised to enter when infected wild geese and other birds start migrating out of Russia.

The virus was detected there this month in regions as far apart as Siberia and the Caspian Sea.

When and how the virus will hit North America is unknown.

But if a global pandemic is in the cards, there is nothing anyone can do to stop it.

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It is only common sense to prepare, and Canada has been meticulous. The federal plan was issued in February; Ontario's most recent plan was issued in June.

"And if the work is all for nought," says Stewart, "fabulous."

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Canada is considered by world health officials to be well prepared, a legacy of the lessons it learned during the SARS outbreak, when 438 Canadians were infected with a previously unknown virus, and 43 died.

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[ 27 August 2005: Message edited by: pogge ]

AJC: Prepare Flu Defenses Now!

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The 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, has been reconstructed and found to be a bird flu that jumped directly to humans, two teams of federal and university scientists announced yesterday.

It was the culmination of work that began a decade ago and involved fishing tiny fragments of the 1918 virus from snippets of lung tissue from two soldiers and an Alaskan woman who died in the 1918 pandemic. The soldiers' tissue had been saved in an Army pathology warehouse, and the woman had been buried in permanently frozen ground.

"This is huge, huge, huge," said John Oxford, a professor of virology at St. Bartholomew's and the Royal London Hospital who was not part of the research team. "It's a huge breakthrough to be able to put a searchlight on a virus that killed 50 million people. I can't think of anything bigger that's happened in virology for many years."

. . . .

The research also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses, called H5N1, that are emerging in Asia. Since 1997, bird flocks in 11 countries have been decimated by flu outbreaks. So far nearly all the people infected - more than 100, including more than 60 who died - contracted the sickness directly from birds. However, there has been little transmission between people.

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Those who were lucky enough to avoid infection had to deal with the public health ordinances to restrain the spread of the disease. The public health departments distributed gauze masks to be worn in public. Stores could not hold sales, funerals were limited to 15 minutes. Some towns required a signed certificate to enter and railroads would not accept passengers without them. Those who ignored the flu ordinances had to pay steep fines enforced by extra officers. Bodies pilled up as the massive deaths of the epidemic ensued. Besides the lack of health care workers and medical supplies, there was a shortage of coffins, morticians and gravediggers. The conditions in 1918 were not so far removed from the Black Death in the era of the bubonic plague of the Middle Ages.

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Bird flu reported in Romania and Turkey

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New cases of avian flu were reported in Romania and Turkey Saturday. Both countries began culling hundreds of birds to prevent the feared disease from spreading.

If the Romanian cases turn out to be the deadly H5N1 virus, it would be the first evidence the strain has spread to Europe from Asia, where it has killed 65 people and millions of birds since 2003.

Experts fear the H5N1 virus could mutate into one which spreads easily among humans, creating a pandemic that might kill millions.

Ion Agafitei, Romania's chief veterinarian, told reporters three birds had tested positive in the Danube delta village of Smardan after the first cases emerged in another village on Friday.

Further tests, some in Britain, were planned to find out whether the strain is H5N1.

Quarantines were imposed on the two affected Romanian villages and five others which have had suspicious bird deaths in recent days. No livestock may be taken from the Danube delta to market.

In the village of Ceamurlia de Jos, a few kilometres from the Black Sea, men with white masks poisoned dozens of birds with carbon dioxide before burning them.

The mayor of the village said: "Nobody dares to eat poultry here after what happened."

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Yet, suddenly we are all supposed to be very worried about this. Like SARS, which was a big panic over a relatively minor and rare disease (like Legionaires), we are supposed to gird ourselves for mass death and extreme measures to "protect" us. All that for a disease whose victims were the usual: the elderly, and others with weakened immune systems (Contrast with 1918, which affected predominantly the young and healthy).

Bottom line is that all the experts, all the officials, and all the cassandras are operating on a big, big if: IF the virus becomes mutated into spreading through indirect human contact, we will be in trouble. Yet that big if is never stated in news reports, or is downplayed out of the picture. It's like saying if the Leafs win the cup, there will be mass casualties from delirious hockey fans across Canada.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jingles:
And for all the doomsday language, they don't make it clear that this virus isn't transmittable from human to human, unlike the 1918 strain.

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The 1918 strain was originally an avian flu that wasn't h2h (human to human) transmissable. Then it mutated - or found itself in a host who was also infected with an h2h strain and the genes recombined - and bingo. This is what flu viruses do.

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Yet that big if is never stated in news reports, or is downplayed out of the picture.

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Untrue. A lot of the news reports I read are quite clear that as it stands H5N1 isn't h2h transmissable and that some kind of mutation would have to happen for a serious pandemic to occur. But once again, that's what flu viruses do.

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The most worrisome aspect is the sudden and forceful interest by Dubya. My tinfoil hat begins to crackle when I hear that guy talk about allowing the military to quarantine and administer infected areas, and how only he and his legions can protect Americans from this deadly scourge to barnyard fowl everywhere. We all know that when Dubya starts ranting about things, bad things ususally follow.

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For Spanish flu, mortality was about 1%, and it was highest in young children and healthy adults in the 25-34 range. It cut life expectancy by 10 years for that age cohort. New reserach suggests this is because older persons had some immunity from an earlier flu strain. So, while in teh past, Spanish flu was suppsed to be as bad as it got, it could be worse. Eeek.

A flu pandemic isn't an if, its a when. Tracing flu pandemics back for the past several hundred years shows that the longest historical period between them was 40 years. Our last pandemic was 1968. Its coming. If it isn't this strand, H5N1, which is being referred to as avian flu, its going to happen, and its going to be devestating economically and healthwise.

The major concern right now is that, while not easily transmittable from fowl to humans, and not easily transmittable amongst humans, is mutation, most likely through pigs, to an easily transmittable form.

Another fun thing being of course that since avian flu attacks chickens, and flu vaccine is usually grown in chicken eggs, we're in big damn trouble if there is a) a need to cull chickens in a massive fashion, or b) the virus kills chicken eggs so that a vaccine can't be grown in them.

quote:

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Originally posted by swirrlygrrl:
So, IMHO, scepticism = very good. But, using that as a reason to downplay the need for preparedness = not good.

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i also wonder if the "Spanish flu" was either concocted or allowed to reap it's deadly course...perhaps the powers that be..(afraid of the recent Russian revolution)..were afraid that such ideas might spread...maybe "they" allowed the flu to take its deadly course on young people (often the instigators of revolutions) in order to avert changing the status quo

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the mass death resulting from white people coming to the new world 500 years ago might be attributed to this:....white, Europenas lived with domesticated animals in close quarters....Native people never herded domesticated livestock...Europeans living in close contact with animals allowed cross species infection and assimilation...the concentration of animals and people 500 years ago in Europe has nothing on the concentration of animals people today in Asia....if people in the Americas were killed by Europeans 500 years ago...perhaps people living in Asia will inadvertently kill people in the Americas (and elsewhere) today

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and i think it will prove extremely dangerous for one corporation to have a monopoly on tamiflu, roche. they control 90% of the harvesting of the main herbal input, star anise, into the manufacture of tamiflu.

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Philippine Health Secretary Francisco Duque warned that many countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, would be at the mercy of the pharmaceutical firm if it demands that its patents be honored.

``It's almost bordering on the immoral to have just one drug company to produce a drug that's going to be a big part of the solution to avoiding the influenza pandemic,'' said Duque Thursday on the sidelines of a meeting of regional health minister and World Health Organization experts in the Thai capital.

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quote:

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The herb from which Tamiflu is made is grown in four provinces in China and "huge quantities" of its seeds are needed, according to the Swiss pharmaceutical manufacturer Roche. Only star anise grown in the four provinces of China is suitable for manufacture into Tamiflu and 90 per cent of the harvest is already used by Roche.

The company has faced demands to relax the patent on the drug to allow other manufacturers to produce it.

Keith Taylor, of the England and Wales Green Party, said: "Some countries have asked the World Health Organization to pressure Roche into relinquishing the patent in order to allow a cheaper, generic version of the drug to be produced on a national level.

"The WHO refuses, citing Roche's donation of three million treatment courses as evidence that Roche is being responsible. This decision jeopardizes millions of lives in the name of profit and is anything but responsible."

The World Health Organization yesterday declined to comment on reports that it was in negotiation with Roche over the lifting of the patent on Tamiflu.

"If we were in discussion with them it would be to relieve the supply shortage of the drug and to help poorer countries.

"But it would not be helpful to do that in public," a WHO spokesman said.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Américain Égalitaire:
drug company . . . immoral?

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Perish the thought, eh?

I am really grateful to the people who have stayed on top of this threat and are organizing for it.

To a degree, I am willing to think of preparing at an individual level too, although that kind of thinking worries me. Of course it is hard for all of us to imagine sitting still and waiting for public-health officials to dole out the protection, in order, when we know how far down the list most of us are going to be.

But the alternative -- mass public panic -- worries me almost as much as the flu itself does.

There are a lot of people -- me, eg -- who really can't take drastic protective measures. If you have commitments and they are not portable, or isolatable -- and many people do -- then you're just stuck following orders.

1. Spanish flu was three pandemics ago, not the last one.
2. Pandemics are regular occurences, they don't need to be concocted. There are sound scientific reasons for the high death rate amongst younger people.
3. People with the flu can become ill within 12 hours of exposure, but are infectious prior to exhibiting symptoms. Quarantine isn't an effective control mechanism in such cases (unlike for SARS, with a long incubation period and trasmission only after onset of illness).

Also, Aristotle, bird flu is an innacurate term, really. All known flu strains can incubate in fowl (as compared to I think 3 for humans). Wild flocks are more likely to transmit it from country to country, and spread it to domestic flocks. Some western European countries have talked about penning flocks inside to prevent spread, but its not thought of as an effective measure. Inside or out, though, when a deadly version of flu, as compared to a mild version, gets to a population, indoor or outdoor, its going to kill a lot of fowl. There are total issues on overcrowdnig, santiary conditions, antibiotic use in factory farming, but its peripheral to this.

quote:

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Originally posted by skdadl:
To a degree, I am willing to think of preparing at an individual level too, although that kind of thinking worries me. Of course it is hard for all of us to imagine sitting still and waiting for public-health officials to dole out the protection, in order, when we know how far down the list most of us are going to be.

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Well, as individuals, we certainly cannot develop or stockpile vaccines. But, I think there are a handful of prudent things a person should consider doing: We have enough fresh water and food stored to last us for a couple of months (and a portable water filtration device that would give us vitually an unlimited supply of clean water). We have several liters of lamp oil (for a lamp that can provide light as well as heat for cooking). And several other little things like that (waterless antibacterial handsoap, manual-powered flashlight, etc.).

quote:

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Originally posted by swirrlygrrl:
There are sound scientific reasons for the high death rate amongst younger people.

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Cytokine Storm

quote:

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From a clinical perspective, a cytokine storm describes an immune system that has over-reacted and is damaging the body, causing failure of multiple organ systems. Ordinarily a cytokine storm is a rare event, which means there are few opportunities to study them, so we do not fully understand how they happen. The term “cytokine storm” is not precisely defined, referring particular kind of uncontrolled immune response. Cytokine storms can happen rapidly and patients who suffer them have high mortality. Because we lack knowlege, we don’t know the best way to treat the condition. Influenza is thought to be one of the rare conditions able to cause a cytokine storm.

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Most of it is obvious: people are more vulnerable to the flu adn other things if they aren't getting enough sleep, don't eat a nutritious diet, don't get enough exercise, etc. Washing hands with regular soap and water, on a regular basis, and especially before eating, is key.

If you want to feel safer, wear one of those respiratory masks (a la Michael Jackson and the SARSettes) when with people, and definately wear one if you are sick with a respiratoy illness. Get a flu shot, especially if you work or live with anyone with a compromised immune system. You might only get mildly ill - but you might kill someone else. And, have enough stuff on hand (food, etc.) that if you are sick, you don't have to go out for a few days.

People want rocket science and easy answers, but even tamiflu isn't a silver bullet (reduces severity, shortens course during infection, provides protection prior to getting it, but no lasting protection from a course - you'd

Edited to add:

Sven is on the ball!!

[ 17 October 2005: Message edited by: swirrlygrrl ]

quote:

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Originally posted by Sven:

If there is a pandemic, grocery store and hardware store shelves will be cleared out very quickly with no certainty of being replenished any time soon. People will simply want to avoid any contact with others and that would likely translate into a grinding halt in the production of basic necessities (food, water and fuel).

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Maybe. I wonder about this scenario a lot.

On the one hand, it is fairly easy to stockpile human food for a couple of months, and in this country it is probably always smart for most people to have water-filtration devices, lots of candles and flashlights and anti-bacterial wash around anyway, given, ah, winter.

However, I really doubt that an effective modern state would allow supply lines to go down totally for an extended period unless we were facing a systems meltdown like, eg, the ice storm.

Further, I expect that a lot of people will just soldier on because they have to, because they have no alternative. And no matter what our preparations, that is the situation most people will be in.

The one thing I would do -- maybe I will do this soon -- is get a supply of truly effective face-masks. Two simple and cheap precautions -- wearing a mask and washing the hands with alcohol -- are probably the most useful things that those of us who have to keep trucking should plan on.

A loose thought about pandemics: I remember reading Mary McCarthy's memoir of her childhood -- her mother died in the flu epidemic of 1918, I believe (read book many years ago). Although people certainly knew what was going on, one gets little sense from memoirs of that time of any panic at all. Families coped. One died; the others didn't. But public life certainly continued.

quote:

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BILL MOYERS: What is the worst scenario?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Well, the worst scenario is that this virus that's circulating right now in Southeast Asia maintains its mortality rate. Right now there have been 112 cases in people with 57 deaths. So that's about 50 percent mortality.

BILL MOYERS: And that's high?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: That's really high. Even the pandemic flu of 1918 only killed one to two percent of the people who were infected. What would likely would happen is as the virus genetically evolves to become more efficient in spreading from person to person or from chicken to person, it is likely that its virulence or its ability to kill, its mortality, would be less and less. Because viruses evolve in a way to self-propagate themselves. It's to no advantage of a virus to kill almost everybody it infects. What you need, the right ingredients, is something that spreads very rapidly but has a degree of mortality that's significant enough to cause a lot of deaths. So the worst scenario is that this evolves in two ways. It evolves in a way that it spreads very, very rapidly, and it keeps enough of its virulence to cause a lot of damage.

BILL MOYERS: You did such a good job with SARS that many of us sort of take a deep breath and say, "Well, if they do see these signs, they'll get to it."

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Be careful. And the reason we have to be careful is that the analogy between SARS and influenza is quite imperfect. Influenza is spread easily by aerosolize. SARS, with some exceptions, is spread by droplet. So that in order for me to infect you if I had SARS, I had to really be coughing and get visible droplets to contaminate you, is the usual way it's spread. With influenza you can get infected from me even before I start to feel sick because there's a period of 24, maybe even 48 hours where I'm incubating the influenza. And just the normal amount of spray that goes back and forth when people talk to each other, you can actually get infected.

BILL MOYERS: When we just talk this close?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Yeah. What people don't realize it isn't particularly aesthetically pleasing but when people talk to each other, if you were able to get the right angle of a light, you'd probably see very, very, very fine little droplets go back and forth sometimes. And that's what's called aerosolize. And then even an inadvertent cough that you don't even notice can do it. So it's very easy to spread influenza where it was relatively inefficient to spread the SARS virus. They're really qualitatively quite different.

BILL MOYERS: Well, suppose the worst case scenario happens and a pandemic strikes. What would be the total impact, the overall impact on our economy, on our education, on the workplace?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: If we have a pandemic that is truly a pandemic, that is truly a devastating pandemic with tens of millions of people getting sick and hundreds of thousands of people dying, we will have a situation in this country. And again hopefully it will never come to that, and we'll have the countermeasures, the vaccines and the drugs to prevent that. But if that happens, the effect broadly on society is multifaceted and potentially devastating. Because when you have such illness, you can rapidly overcome and supercede the capability of your hospitals and your clinics to be able to take care of patients. You have an economic issue, not only an economic issue of work lost from people who are sick, but the communications and transportation among countries might be closed down or broken down. Normal healthcare systems will strain under this terribly. So there are so many implications -- economic, healthcare interactions, global considerations when countries throughout the world also have a devastating impact.

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Although people certainly knew what was going on, one gets little sense from memoirs of that time of any panic at all.

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Widespread panic in the U.S. and canada at the time with curfews, quarantines, boarding up the sick, outlawing group events like church etc.

Signs of resistance to tamiful.

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but there are fears of creating a pandemic that is antiviral resistant.

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tin foil hat eh?....do you not think there are certain evil men who value the lives of other "lessor" men so little that they'd have no qualms helping to spread a little death around?....when white man came to the new world 500 years ago they also brought with them terribly deadly diseases...knowing that the "indians" didn't know the why's and how's of their mysterious deaths...certain evil men gave them infected blankets to help speed/start up the course of the deadly disease outbreaks....if such evil plots could be hatched hundreds of years ago...i find no reason not to believe that such plots might have happened decades ago..

i'm not saying this is the case....but what if certain evil men 90 years ago decided to let the spanish flu take its deadly course...politicians, media/robber barrons...having access to privledged information might have allowed them to kill off a few million people like the white man killed off a few million indians hundreds of years ago

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There are total issues on overcrowdnig, santiary conditions, antibiotic use in factory farming, but its peripheral to this.

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i don't think it's that peripheral at all ...

letters pg, guardian

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In all the discussions on bird flu, the blame has been conveniently put on wild, migratory birds. Yet over the past 60 years, the world's farmers have kept huge numbers of broiler chickens and laying hens in ever more confined factory-farmed conditions - in the UK alone we slaughter 900 million a year. The environment in which these creatures are kept has compromised their immune systems and left them at their physiological limits. No wonder disease is rife. Now we seem panicked and surprised that avian flu might break through the species barrier to harm us.

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quote:

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Although there is widespread anxiety about the arrival of bird flu in Europe - European Union health ministers will convene a special session on Thursday to discuss the problem - the next stops on bird migratory paths are not in Western Europe, but in the Middle East, North Africa and East Africa, United Nations officials here say.

Countries and farmers in these parts of the world, particularly in East Africa, are completely unprepared, lacking the money and the scientific infrastructure to control outbreaks of the virus, the United Nations officials said.

If the disease touches down there, it could become widespread in the environment and on farms before it is even detected, he said.

Also, because in poorer African nations people live in proximity with animals, such a situation would provide a dangerous crucible for the mixing of the bird and human viruses, vastly increasing the risk that the avian virus could gain the ability to readily spread among humans.

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"The indication is that we will see a return of the 1918 flu virus that is the most virulent form of flu," warns America's top health official. "In 1918, half a million people died. The projections are that this virus will kill one million Americans . . . "

A quotation ripped from today's papers about an impending "bird flu" pandemic?

No, the year was 1976 and the prediction of a deadly "swine flu" overshot the mark by 999,999 deaths (although dozens did die from the vaccine campaign).

That's something to remember amid the current alarms. Another is that we've been here before with the identical virus over which the feathers are now flying, avian influenza type H5N1, which first hit poultry flocks in 1997.

"Race to Prevent World Epidemic of Lethal 'Bird Flu,'" and "Hong Kong 'Bird Flu' Could be the Next Big Outbreak," blared the headlines then. The world death toll from that "wave"? --Six.

And let's not forget the outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) two years ago, which led to 750 stories in the New York Times and Washington Post--one per death worldwide, as it turned out. The 71 U.S. cases of SARS, which resulted in zero deaths, did not "Overwhelm U.S. Health System," as CNN had predicted.

None of which is to say there won't be another flu pandemic. There were three in the last century, after all. But that gives us absolutely no idea when the next will come, nor whether it will be any relative of H5N1, nor what its impact will be. Two of those 20th-century pandemics weren't particularly severe, while the other was catastrophic. (Pandemic, by the way, does not mean "deadly epidemic"--it means "worldwide epidemic.")

What we can say with confidence is that there is never such a thing as helpful hysteria. And the line between informing the public and starting a panic is being crossed every day now by politicians, public health officials, and journalists. . .

[ 13 November 2005: Message edited by: Geneva ]

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Originally posted by Geneva:
[i]What we can say with confidence is that there is never such a thing as helpful hysteria. And the line between informing the public and starting a panic is being crossed every day now by politicians, public health officials, and journalists. . .

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seems to me the best use of public health funds is based on the best science available, and that includes a peek at the recent past, as that writer gave us

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seems to me the best use of public health funds is based on the best science available

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I agree. I just don't agree that the Hudson Institute in general, or Fumento in particular, is committed to "the best science available." Seems to me they're concerned mostly to "debunk" any science that doesn't fit with their (extremely narrow) world view; and I'm not persuaded Fumento knows any more about epidemiology than I do.

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If you want to know the main reason I'm sceptical of the Hudson Institute's approach, consider the approach of their founder. He never let facts get in the way of a good argument. Actually, a lousy argument, but anyway.

[ 13 November 2005: Message edited by: 'lance ]