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Author Topic: By-elections
nicky
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posted 09 March 2008 02:40 PM      Profile for nicky     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There has been very little discussion of next weeks four by-elections either in the media or on Babble. I'd like to hear some informed input on the prospects, particularly in Churchill River and Quadra.
I live in Toronto Centre where Rae is dominating the sign war with no visible Conservative presence. The Green signs rival the NDP's in Cabbagetown. The Green candidate looks like an unkempt teenager but seems to have lots of money to burn. I was polled today by a firm representing the Greens with a phone number from Vancouver.
The only party to canvass me was the NDP altough I have had literature dropped by the Libs and the Greens.

From: toronto | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 11 March 2008 05:38 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Historical census, voting behaviour and campaign finance history available at:

The By-Elections By the Numbers I - Toronto Centre

The By-Elections By the Numbers II - Willowdale

The By-Elections By the Numbers III - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

The By-Elections By the Numbers IV - Vancouver Quadra

Stats available at:
2008 By-election(s)


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 11 March 2008 09:55 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hmmm.... all 4 of your riding links lead to Toronto Centre.

And I thought that all links led to Rome.


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ottawaobserver
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posted 12 March 2008 01:05 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Albireo:
Hmmm.... all 4 of your riding links lead to Toronto Centre.

And I thought that all links led to Rome.


Thanks Albireo. You know the old joke ... how many Toronto Centre-ites does it take to screw in a light-bulb ... when in fact the whole country revolves around it.

The By-Elections By the Numbers I - Toronto Centre

The By-Elections By the Numbers II - Willowdale

The By-Elections By the Numbers III - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

The By-Elections By the Numbers IV - Vancouver Quadra

Stats available at:
2008 By-election(s)


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Succubus
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posted 14 March 2008 10:27 AM      Profile for Succubus        Edit/Delete Post
If you're not from BC you probably don't know that Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals are run like Mike Harris' PCons by some of the very same people! There is no PCon power here so they actually stole the name Liberal and are only masquarading as such.

The NDP Candidate, Rebecca Coad will easily win if the people are interested in sending solid PCon opposition to Ottawa.

Excerpt from yesterday's "Georgia Straight" mag:

The liberal candidate, Joyce Murray, talks a good game. She constantly mentions her 1992 MBA thesis on global warming, which called upon Canada to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. It was ahead of its time. However, her record as a cabinet minister in the first term of the Gordon Campbell government at times harks back to Jurassic Park.

Despite Murray’s proclamations about promoting environmental stewardship, her government went along with harebrained schemes, such as coal-fired power plants and coalbed methane projects, that would achieve the opposite effect. During the first term of the Campbell government, the Straight chronicled incredible environmental destruction in northeastern B.C., where a rush for natural-gas reserves was launched. The ministry of water, land, and air protection, which Murray headed, lost more than 1,000 civil servants during her tenure, according to numbers contained in the government’s budget estimates. A moratorium on new fish farms was lifted. A ban on grizzly-bear hunting was cancelled during the first term of the Campbell government. Murray was regularly unavailable for comment when the Straight called her ministry seeking explanations for various environmental policies.

Later in the first term of the Campbell government, Murray was transferred to become minister of government management services, overseeing one of the most insidious systems in North America for tracking freedom-of-information requests. This ministry, under Murray’s tutelage, actually ranked access requests on a “sensitivity” scale. More sensitive requests took longer to process.

The Campbell government also gained notoriety for policies that made life much more difficult for women, a topic twice featured on the cover of the Georgia Straight. Murray never publicly opposed these measures, which included cancelling funding for women’s centres and reducing welfare payments to single moms after their kids turned three years old.

There’s always a temptation to vote Liberal to stop the Harper Conservatives. It’s not necessary in Vancouver Quadra, which might be the safest Liberal riding in the province. The Liberals won with 49.1 percent of the vote in 2006 and 52.4 percent of the vote in 2004. If Murray manages to flame out as she did in her last two attempts to win public office, in the 2005 provincial election and the 2006 federal election, it will suggest that the party will probably need a new leader.

Besides which, the Liberals have already proven in Ottawa that they won’t stop the Harper Conservatives. Liberals backed the prime minister’s decision to extend the Afghanistan mission to 2011 and have refused to topple the government even though it is contradicting medical research and taking a punitive approach to drug addiction, which will result in more deaths in Vancouver.


From: everywhere | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Sean in Ottawa
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posted 14 March 2008 11:05 AM      Profile for Sean in Ottawa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by nicky:
There has been very little discussion of next weeks four by-elections either in the media or on Babble.

The reason that there is little discussion is that there is little suspense- these are 4 considered safe ridings previously held by the Liberals. It would only be news if they were likely to lose one. The only one that realistically could provide drama is the North Sask riding. I suspect that all 4 will remain Liberal as much as I'd like the NDP to take any of them. In Sask, the Liberals' candidate's advantages and disadvantages look like a wash and I expect they will keep even this one by a close result. I am looking forward to later by elections, not these.


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Succubus
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posted 14 March 2008 11:37 AM      Profile for Succubus        Edit/Delete Post
The reason why there has been not much discussion in Vancouver is because the media's owners don't have a chance in Quadra. Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals are infamous for silent and deadly maneuvering behind the scenes plus their tracking and strangulation of freedom-of-information requests.
If they can't find anything good to say about themselves they'd rather nobody say anything at all!

From: everywhere | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
David Young
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posted 14 March 2008 12:53 PM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Sean in Ottawa:

I am looking forward to later by elections, not these.


Agreed, Sean. It's the by-election in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE that is going to be interesting to watch. With DON VALLEY WEST and probably SAINT LAMBERT going to become vacant by early July, watch for another round of September by-elections.

However, I do feel that the Liberals are going to lose the northern Saskatchewan by-election to the Conservatives.


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 March 2008 04:56 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
so far, the NDP and the Conservatives have done a pretty good job of downplaying these byelections and the Liberals have done a poor job of playing them up.

Keep in mind that up until about two weeks ago - NO ONE thought that these byelections would even take place since it was considered a virtual certainty that the government would fall.

I think that the NDP knows that it has no chance to win in any of the four seats. Vancouver-Quadra and Willowdale are simply too wealthy to ever be winnable and while Toronto-Centre could be winnable under the right circumstances - none of the those circumstances are present right now (ie: very weak rightwing Liberal candidate, strong Tory candidate and an NDP candidate who is more than just a star but a "super-nova"!). As a result the NDP is wisely keeping a low profile. You don't hear much about Layton campaigning in any of the ridings, not a huge amount of money seems to be spent etc...

Similarly, the Tories have wisely made sure that Harper doesn't set foot in any of the ridings and their candidates aren't even attending any debates.

Compare this to the saturation publicity that there was for the three Quebec byelections in September or even the London North Centre byelection a year and a half ago!!

The Liberals would desperately like to make these byelections matter - but let's face it - you can't really call it "news" when three super-safe Liberal seats stay Liberal!! so, they won't get much out of it.

The only seat that is in doubt is the one in northern Saskatchewan - but even there, if the Liberals hold on - they will be seen as having dodged a bullet and nothing more. If they lose, it will be seen as a failure of strategy when Dion handpicked some lackluster NDP has-been as Liberal candidate over the protest of the local Liberals.

It will be interesting to look at the popular vote - but ultimately i think that these byelections will be a page 35 story in most newspapers and if the Liberals think that holding on to these seats is going to suddenly give them any national momentum - they are sadly delusional.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 14 March 2008 05:54 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Succubus:

The NDP Candidate, Rebecca Coad will easily win if the people are interested in sending solid PCon opposition to Ottawa.

Excerpt from yesterday's "Georgia Straight" mag:


Funnily enough, the Georgia Straight has endorsed the Green Party candidate in Vancouver Quadra.

http://www.straight.com/article-135666/the-usual-suspects

That gets me to thinkin'... Why did Harper call the by-elections for March 17... St. Paddy's Day perhaps? Ya know, when even McDonald's serves green milkshakes?

Methinks Harper is playing a little political hijinx hoping that the Greens will siphon off some of that green vote from both the NDP and the Libs based upon the previous London North Centre by-election where the Greens achieved second place and captured 25.84%!

[ 14 March 2008: Message edited by: Centrist ]


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 14 March 2008 06:42 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by David Young:

Agreed, Sean. It's the by-election in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE that is going to be interesting to watch. With DON VALLEY WEST and probably SAINT LAMBERT going to become vacant by early July, watch for another round of September by-elections.

However, I do feel that the Liberals are going to lose the northern Saskatchewan by-election to the Conservatives.


Don't forget Guelph, as well. Brenda Chamberlain has come under some local criticism for her lack of attendance in the Commons, and succumbed the other week by announcing her resignation effective April 7. Just 16 points separated 1st from 3rd place there, plus the Greens had a healthy 8.8%. So it will be an interesting riding to watch in a by-election context.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
asterix
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posted 14 March 2008 06:48 PM      Profile for asterix     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
these are 4 considered safe ridings previously held by the Liberals

When on earth did Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River become a safe Liberal riding? It hasn't been held by the same party in any two successive elections since it was created, and the Liberals only won it by 68 votes -- and a few big-screen TVs, according to some people -- in 2006.

It's about as safe as whitewater rafting!


From: deep inside the caverns of my mind | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 14 March 2008 07:09 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by asterix:

When on earth did Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River become a safe Liberal riding? It hasn't been held by the same party in any two successive elections since it was created, and the Liberals only won it by 68 votes -- and a few big-screen TVs, according to some people -- in 2006.

It's about as safe as whitewater rafting!


Don't you get the sense, in the past week or so, that perhaps the NDP's strategy all along has been to downplay the byelections? If they're all safe Liberal seats and the Libs win them all, who cares. But if there are upsets no-one saw coming, whoa !! Thus, all the positioning has been going on at the national level, rather than invested locally. And, if they were running a whiz-bang campaign up in DMCR, who in the southern mainstream media would notice anyways? I think the outcome of those northern ridings is much more locally determined than we in the south will ever cotton onto. I fully believe it could go any one of 3 ways, and we down here in central canada will be completely surprised either which way.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
asterix
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posted 14 March 2008 07:22 PM      Profile for asterix     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh, absolutely, Desnethé's an utterly unpredictable riding that could go to any of the three major parties -- in fact, it has been held by all three parties at some point in its short history.

I'm just disagreeing with Sean's claim that they're all safe Liberal cakewalk ridings. Desnethé so, so very much isn't. I'm not about to say that the Libs won't win it, because they certainly still could -- but it isn't a safe seat for them.

[ 14 March 2008: Message edited by: asterix ]


From: deep inside the caverns of my mind | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 March 2008 08:37 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Don't forget Guelph, as well. Brenda Chamberlain has come under some local criticism for her lack of attendance in the Commons, and succumbed the other week by announcing her resignation effective April 7. Just 16 points separated 1st from 3rd place there, plus the Greens had a healthy 8.8%. So it will be an interesting riding to watch in a by-election context.

Guelph is where the star NDP candidate is noted aboriginal author Tom King. That could make a very interesting byelection!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
David Young
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posted 15 March 2008 03:51 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I had not heard that Brenda Chamberlain was planning to resign as M.P. for GUELPH on April 7th.

With Tom King already the candidate there, that's just the kind of seat the NDP could pick up.

I wonder if someone started a 'Draft Julius Grey' thread, would that help convince him that his running (and winning!) in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE would be a major boost to Canada's Justice Committee in the House of Commons.


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 15 March 2008 07:57 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by David Young:

I wonder if someone started a 'Draft Julius Grey' thread, would that help convince him that his running (and winning!) in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE would be a major boost to Canada's Justice Committee in the House of Commons.

I read that he was the lawyer representing the fellow whose deportation Mulcair was fighting against in the Commons. Without knowing anything else, I might be inclined to speculate that losing this kind of case could be enough to trigger someone finally getting angry enough to run for office.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
sandpiper
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posted 15 March 2008 08:37 AM      Profile for sandpiper     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
just got this e-mail from Chris Alders, with the Green Party here in NS:

quote:
Greetings Maritime Greens!

Polling numbers released yesterday indicate that Robert Orr, the Green standard-bearer in the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, is poised for a potential second place finish! The poll numbers are as follows:

26.6% Conservative
13.9% Green
13.1% Liberal
11.0% NDP
35.4% Undecided


Anyone know what the source might be? Or would this just be an internal GP poll?


From: HRM | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
sandpiper
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posted 15 March 2008 08:53 AM      Profile for sandpiper     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh. Nevermind. Checked out their website - it's just an internal Green Party poll.
From: HRM | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 15 March 2008 09:00 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by sandpiper:
just got this e-mail from Chris Alders, with the Green Party here in NS:

Anyone know what the source might be? Or would this just be an internal GP poll?


Looks like it's probably from the Green Party web-site:

Green Party running second in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill by-election

They are making claims about the Vancouver riding and Willowdale as well, but surprisingly not Toronto Centre.

I don't know how good a phone survey of a northern Saskatchewan riding would be. They don't give numbers for how many phone numbers were called before 236 responded, however the Vancouver Quadra release says "Of 30,179 Vancouver Quadra numbers called, 648 voters responded", which means they were using a direct-dial system, probably with a recorded message.

Anyways, I guess we'll know how predictive this methodology is on Monday.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 15 March 2008 09:54 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Indulge in a bit of thread drift here.

Hey, sandpiper... seeing as you get communications from Chris Alder of the Green Party, you have an opportunity to ask him a basic question.

Like that's nice the Green Party is making progress in Saskatchewan.

But what is there to show here in Nova Scotia for the $11,000 a month the NSGP gets in public funding?

[For reference info see: Nova Scotia E(lect) May Party, aka NS Green Party . Most recent post in thread gives some context for what can be expected to be done with $11,000 per month in NS.]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 15 March 2008 10:07 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Those internal polls of the GP are interesting- on many fronts.

Most parties jealously guard internal polling because the purpose is to have some idea what is going on- to have a rational basis for allocating resources.

The accuracy of this internal polling is only reasonably reliable for comparisons across time. IE, our numbers are not to be taken too literally, more for things like whether we have surges or drops in particualr places. Stuff like that.

This GP polling seems to be essentially 'push polling'. It's not even really an 'internal poll' in any meamingful sense. The purpose of the "polling" is to push people your way.

And in this case, since there are such low expectations for you, to broadcast the 'polling' results.

You can see from the website release that they did an automated call to most households in quadra, and are reporting on the approx 2% who responded [in a way not specified, and with no bias to the numbers of course].

In Desenthe they only mention about 720 calls in the first place- so that's maybe a couple or a few dozen responses?


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 15 March 2008 10:49 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
Those internal polls of the GP are interesting- on many fronts.

Most parties jealously guard internal polling because the purpose is to have some idea what is going on- to have a rational basis for allocating resources.

The accuracy of this internal polling is only reasonably reliable for comparisons across time. IE, our numbers are not to be taken too literally, more for things like whether we have surges or drops in particualr places. Stuff like that.

This GP polling seems to be essentially 'push polling'. It's not even really an 'internal poll' in any meamingful sense. The purpose of the "polling" is to push people your way.

And in this case, since there are such low expectations for you, to broadcast the 'polling' results.

You can see from the website release that they did an automated call to most households in quadra, and are reporting on the approx 2% who responded [in a way not specified, and with no bias to the numbers of course].

In Desenthe they only mention about 720 calls in the first place- so that's maybe a couple or a few dozen responses?


I read the releases to say they got 237 responses in DMCR; it was 761 responses in Willowdale. Only in Quadra do they mention how many calls they placed in order to get that response rate.

It also matters what the source name and number of the phone call was. I thought I remembered reading somewhere else that someone in Toronto got phoned by the Greens from a Vancouver number. If the called ID says "Green Party" and it's a long distance number and a prerecorded message, that would affect the response rates. Being a local call in Vancouver would affect them differently there. Plus, I doubt the response rate in northern Saskatchewan would be very high at all for these types of calls, so the results there probably favour the southern part of the riding.

Anyways, as I said, we'll know how predictive the methodology is on Monday. And, whether they have inadvertantly set expectations too high for what their performance turns out to be. Or, whether the tactic succeeded in reinforcing the motivation of Green supporters to get out to the polls. Again, it's curious that these results would only be released for 3 of the 4 ridings, and raises the question of whether the results in Toronto Centre were not what they hoped for, or are being saved for tomorrow.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 15 March 2008 01:57 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
And, whether they have inadvertantly set expectations too high for what their performance turns out to be.

If it is essentially a 'push poll' as I surmised, then there is no such thing as setting expectations too high.

The only point is to get more people to vote Green- there isn't any other point to the 'polling'.

Whether it works is another story. And I can't see that we'll be able to tell if it had a positive effect. I would guess that the GP has some basis for expecting it to improve their vote share.

When you don't have people on the ground, and you are saving the cash for something else, auto-dialed push poliing looks like it can't lose.

[There's the detail of people comparing the actual results to the 'poll results' just released, but that's what spinning is for.]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
melovesproles
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posted 15 March 2008 02:07 PM      Profile for melovesproles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I bet the Greens will do well, it sounds like the NDP and Cons have tried to have as little to do with the by-elections as possible(this is seen as a smart move by some on this board) and the Liberals might be favorites but morale is clearly low amongst the rank and file and there isn't a lot of reasons for people to come out and support them. I would have expected the NDP percentage of the vote to have gone up significantly in Vancouver Quadra-with Kits and UBC there is a strong anti-Conservative vote and the recent collaboration of Dion should mean a bleeding of the Liberal vote here. Coad sounded like a good candidate to me but if the NDP wrote the riding off and the Greens got the Georgia Straight endorsement then it might not be impossible for them to pass the NDP here.

[ 15 March 2008: Message edited by: melovesproles ]


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 15 March 2008 03:17 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"I bet the Greens will do well..."

Everything that you said after that you have expressed as a statement. You gave no basis for any of them.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
melovesproles
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posted 15 March 2008 03:32 PM      Profile for melovesproles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Everything that you said after that you have expressed as a statement. You gave no basis for any of them.

Its clearly just my opinion but I did provide support for why I think its likely. I also wouldn't be disappointed if I was wrong.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 15 March 2008 03:35 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by sandpiper:

Anyone know what the source might be? Or would this just be an internal GP poll?


Given that the Green candidate is the only non-Aboriginal candidate in a riding that is (IIRC) 70-90% Aboriginal . . .

Given that the Green Party candidate is the only one who is not from the riding in a seat where interpersonal relationships are more important than party labels . . .

Given that the Green Party has no meaningful presence federally or provincially in Saskatchewan . . .

I'd say the "source" is an excellent bag of home grown marijuana.


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 15 March 2008 04:18 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by melovesproles:
I bet the Greens will do well, it sounds like the NDP and Cons have tried to have as little to do with the by-elections as possible(this is seen as a smart move by some on this board) and the Liberals might be favorites but morale is clearly low amongst the rank and file and there isn't a lot of reasons for people to come out and support them. I would have expected the NDP percentage of the vote to have gone up significantly in Vancouver Quadra-with Kits and UBC there is a strong anti-Conservative vote and the recent collaboration of Dion should mean a bleeding of the Liberal vote here. Coad sounded like a good candidate to me but if the NDP wrote the riding off and the Greens got the Georgia Straight endorsement then it might not be impossible for them to pass the NDP here.

[ 15 March 2008: Message edited by: melovesproles ]


By the way, not that I have any information one way or the other, but "downplaying the by-elections" is different than writing a riding off. It might just imply a quieter on-the-ground strategy. I don't know what's smart and what's not in this case, but repeatedly raising expectations really high and then repeatedly not meeting them is not usually considered smart in politics.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
triciamarie
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posted 15 March 2008 04:24 PM      Profile for triciamarie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

Guelph is where the star NDP candidate is noted aboriginal author Tom King. That could make a very interesting byelection!


What a candidate! I read a beautiful piece by him last week in the local indie music rag talking about how politics is ultimately story-telling, and we need better raconteurs. I can't wait to hear from him on the issues.

I don't expect too much Con competition this time around. City councillor Gloria Kovach was the head of the Canadian Federation of Municipalities until she got booted from that position at the first possible instant after running for the Tory candidacy in 2005. Afterwards she went around talking about some kind of conspiracy against her by Chretien's PMO -- had a lot of people shaking their heads. Her major problem though is that she is not the elected candidate... Brent Barr was 2006 candidate for Guelph until he was removed by -- guess who -- Harper's PMO. No one else ran for the job so Kovach was acclaimed.

The Green party candidate is Mike Nagy again. He came in not too far behind the NDP in 2006. A credible candidate for sure, and Guelph being Guelph, he might just pick up a big contingent of disenfranchised Tories. The Wellington part of the riding was hived off in 2003 though, so I believe there aren't as many of those floating around as previously.

The Liberal candidate is lawyer Frank Valeriote, born and bred in Guelph, Italian-Canadian, knows the whole world here and seems like a pretty nice guy to boot. Has done a bunch of overseas development work. He's looking to me like a pretty safe bet, at this early stage anyway. After he was elected last April, veteran Liberal MP Brenda Chamberlain really hasn't been seen or heard from since. So he is having a nice ramp-up to election day.

Does anyone have any insight when or if a by-election might be expected?

[ 15 March 2008: Message edited by: triciamarie ]


From: gwelf | Registered: Jul 2006  |  IP: Logged
Succubus
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posted 15 March 2008 04:28 PM      Profile for Succubus        Edit/Delete Post
Hey Centrist, that's a brilliant thought. Thanks!

It makes a whole lot of sense because creepy BC Liberal Gordon Campbell would not have even won his own seat in his neighbourhood (Quadra roughly) if it wasn't for the Greens splitting the vote with the NDP in the last provincial election!

It's almost like the Greens are being paid by right-wing. I suppose stranger things have happened.

Speaking of Greens, the last civic election in Vancouver seemed to be snatched from the lefty incumbents by the right-wing party support of an 'independent' candidate named James Green that 'confused' voters at the polls. They knew they should have voted for Jim Green and many phoned later to say they think they made a mistake. Well, this practically unknown dude named James Green somehow got a budget for a giant tour bus and swanky NPA office digs.

Ha! Harper picks St. Paddy's day - that's a good one - probably true too!


From: everywhere | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
mimeguy
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posted 15 March 2008 05:17 PM      Profile for mimeguy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
KenS -
quote:
If it is essentially a 'push poll' as I surmised, then there is no such thing as setting expectations too high. The only point is to get more people to vote Green- there isn't any other point to the 'polling'.

Whether it works is another story. And I can't see that we'll be able to tell if it had a positive effect. I would guess that the GP has some basis for expecting it to improve their vote share.


The test as always is on election day and we'll know on Monday. Polls work in terms of motivation for Greens themselves. Jim Harris is very good at this on the Green site. We don't have regional concentration and are working to raise the level of the Green vote across Canada. Poor showings on election day can naturally be spiritually deflating and I think the steadiness in the average polls between elections helps build that motivation back up.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 15 March 2008 06:58 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Succubus:
It makes a whole lot of sense because creepy BC Liberal Gordon Campbell would not have even won his own seat in his neighbourhood (Quadra roughly) if it wasn't for the Greens splitting the vote with the NDP in the last provincial election!

It's almost like the Greens are being paid by right-wing. I suppose stranger things have happened.


Are we counting the federal Libs as "the right"? If so, the Greens as "junior partners" to the Libs seems more obvious. In Toronto, Rae and Tindal keep praising each other for running "positive campaigns" about issues, etc.

FYI: Gordon Campbell's riding, which as you point out he takes by rather narrow margins, is basically the northern half of Quadra. It is affluent but includes Kitsilano and UBC and is more progressive than the southern half which is a BC Lib stronghold.


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tweety
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posted 15 March 2008 11:46 PM      Profile for tweety        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:
By the way, not that I have any information one way or the other, but "downplaying the by-elections" is different than writing a riding off....I don't know what's smart and what's not in this case, but repeatedly raising expectations really high and then repeatedly not meeting them is not usually considered smart in politics.

I think this kind of reasoning leads to a vicious circle. Parties will have a hard time attracting quality candidates if they, in effect, run to lose certain ridings.


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ottawaobserver
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posted 16 March 2008 12:08 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tweety:

I think this kind of reasoning leads to a vicious circle. Parties will have a hard time attracting quality candidates if they, in effect, run to lose certain ridings.


Sorry, guess I wasn't very clear in my earlier comments then, tweety, because again I did not mean that the apparent strategy here was to lose a certain riding. For example, you could run a campaign before that was a come-from-behind sneak attack... taking advantage of an incumbent's complacency, or its supporters' low morale.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Not every campaign has to run on full horns blaring all the time to be effective. Or, if the outcome is hypothetically a foregone conclusion, does one risk more by being seen to have run flat-out and still lose. Perhaps there are other objectives that could be achieved with a different kind of campaign.

I was also pointing out in the context of earlier contributions to the thread, that another party might be inadvertantly raising expectations so high that it risks being taken less seriously when falling below them (e.g., claiming it's running second, but then placing much lower in a northern Saskatchewan seat where it only got 500-some votes last time). Even if the objective is to perk up its own troops, that technique may only work for so long.

But, you do raise an interesting point that has also been debated south of the border; namely, targetted general election campaigns vs. "50-state" (i.e., 10-province) campaigns. The relative merits of one over the other may depend on a party's situation and objectives. But that's a debate for general elections, and we've been talking about by-elections here ... and I think the convo has now gotten so hypothetical, that I should just stop altogether trying to clarify all the confusion I created earlier ;-)


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KenS
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posted 16 March 2008 01:24 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
mimeguy:
quote:
Polls work in terms of motivation for Greens themselves. Jim Harris is very good at this on the Green site. We don't have regional concentration and are working to raise the level of the Green vote across Canada. Poor showings on election day can naturally be spiritually deflating and I think the steadiness in the average polls between elections helps build that motivation back up.

This appears to be a comment about how to deal with the relationship between "real poll" levels between elections and what happens in the election.

But what we have been talking about here is this particular case of a GP set of "polls" in the by-election races.

These got called "internal polls". But they are more like 'push polling', where it just gives the appearance of a poll and is really entirely about convincing more people to vote Green.

[I've never heard of auto-dialed push polling, but the principle is the same and it could easily be happenining in the US without me noticing.]

With push polling there is no attempt to get information of what is going on. So publicicing the so-called 'results' is a new thing.

Presumably the high sounding vote shares are meant to encourage people. If so, it's done in the face of the inevitable deflation that happens on election day.

This will be a bigger E-day drop than what the GP is accustomed to. And doing it deliberately with your own 'polls' known to be bogus, is very different than what you appear to be talking about in the quote above.

[ 16 March 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]


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tweety
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posted 16 March 2008 01:28 AM      Profile for tweety        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Not every campaign has to run on full horns blaring all the time to be effective. Or, if the outcome is hypothetically a foregone conclusion, does one risk more by being seen to have run flat-out and still lose. Perhaps there are other objectives that could be achieved with a different kind of campaign.

I understand the point you were making. My point though is that your reasoning inevitably leads you to a vicious circle that good candidates will not step forward to run in campaigns "if the outcome is hypothetically a foregone conclusion".

It is more than a bit wonkish for someone to write about "other objectives that could be achieved with a different kind of campaign" from the safety of a keyboard without having to make the personal and professional sacrifices that candidates make. This cynicism corrodes and debases our democratic debate and institutions, and becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in my view. Good candidates will not come forward. The media will not cover the campaign. The public will ignore the campaign. No progress will be made so in the next election Good candidates will not come forward. The media will not cover the campaign the public will ignore the campaign.

Unless or until we get PR, I think this kind of thinking will be self-defeating.


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KenS
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posted 16 March 2008 01:53 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

Originally posted by tweety:

I think this kind of reasoning leads to a vicious circle. Parties will have a hard time attracting quality candidates if they, in effect, run to lose certain ridings.


Bear in mind that ottawaobserver didn't say this. Reference was made to an earlier post that simply said the NDP had 'written off' Quadra.

OO would know that the opposite was the case, and I think was simply offering reasons why it might look like that.

[And leaving out the simplest reason: just because the media reports the NDP as not counting, doesn't mean that is the case. The media often know very little about what is being done on the ground, and expend little energy trying to find out. They go along for 5 minutes of door knocking and leave with their material- print as well as broadcast media. Mind you, from what I have seen I don't think in Quadra the media is treating this as a Liberal slam dunk, or Rebecca Coad and the NDP as an invisible campaign. For one thing, no "news" if they report it that way. "News" is Sephane Dion needs this, and they will 'look' for whatever material supports the "news" that maybe it won't go in Dion and the Liberals' favour.]


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David Young
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posted 16 March 2008 03:39 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by triciamarie:

What a candidate! I read a beautiful piece by him last week in the local indie music rag talking about how politics is ultimately story-telling, and we need better raconteurs. I can't wait to hear from him on the issues.

Does anyone have any insight when or if a by-election might be expected?

[ 15 March 2008: Message edited by: triciamarie ]


If I were a betting person, triciamarie, I'd say you'll have to wait until early July for the call.

He has to call a by-election in WESTMOUNT-VILLE MARIE by July 25th, so I'm guessing he'll wait until DON VALLEY WEST M.P. John Godfrey hands in his resignation on July 1st, and then call by-elections in the vacant ridings.


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Jonas
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posted 16 March 2008 06:06 AM      Profile for Jonas     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I understand the point you were making. My point though is that your reasoning inevitably leads you to a vicious circle that good candidates will not step forward to run in campaigns "if the outcome is hypothetically a foregone conclusion".

Coming from a rural Ontario riding where the NDP struggles I would be really interested in ways to attract good candidates and perhaps ways to run election campaigns bearing in mind the likely outcome.


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David Young
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posted 16 March 2008 08:53 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Jonas:

Coming from a rural Ontario riding where the NDP struggles I would be really interested in ways to attract good candidates and perhaps ways to run election campaigns bearing in mind the likely outcome.


The problem with politics today is that the ones who have power didn't get there by 'playing fair'. They got there thanks to their egos and their need for control. They've inherited a system that rewards a privaledged few, and they want to pass this system onto the next generation of like-minded people (wealthy older white males!) Anyone who tries to change this succession of power is made to feel like they are the ones disrupting the natural order.

The N.D.P. motto "What we wish for ourselves, we desire forall!" goes right to the heart of what that group of privaledged few hate about the N.D.P. And they know if they keep to the margins of political power anyone who isn't a wealthy older white male (W.A.S.P.!?), they'll succeed.

We need a new acronym to describe Caucasian Hetero Unchallenged Males who want nothing less than total equality amongst the races, genders, etc. of society. I like to refer to myself as a 'C.H.U.M.' since here in Nova Scotia I found a woman to run for the N.D.P. here in QUEENS, who became the first New Democrat (and female!) ever elected in this provincial riding, and I'll be working hard to make history by electing Gordon Earle in SOUTH SHORE-ST. MARGARET'S, the first candidate of African-Canadian origin to win this riding in the next federal election.

To succeed, you need to have hope!


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ottawaobserver
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posted 16 March 2008 09:07 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tweety:
It is more than a bit wonkish for someone to write about "other objectives that could be achieved with a different kind of campaign" from the safety of a keyboard without having to make the personal and professional sacrifices that candidates make. This cynicism corrodes and debases our democratic debate and institutions, and becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in my view. Good candidates will not come forward. The media will not cover the campaign. The public will ignore the campaign. No progress will be made so in the next election Good candidates will not come forward. The media will not cover the campaign the public will ignore the campaign.

Unless or until we get PR, I think this kind of thinking will be self-defeating.


I agree we're on to a pretty wonkish tack here, but let's carry it on a little bit ... I notice for example that the NDP has nominated two university activists as candidates during this set of byelections, giving Layton a chance to visit the campuses several times each and improve the NDP's standing with students, in order to build the next generation of that party's support. Those students likely won't be voting in Quadra or Willowdale next time out, but more likely in a better NDP riding. The two young women get a fabulous life experience, and who knows could wind up running somewhere else some other time.

[I could add, too, that apparently the Conservatives are using the by-elections to road-test some of their strategic approaches to visible minority communities, as written about in the Globe the other week.]

There are plenty of stories of long-time NDP candidates running numerous times, and then suddently getting elected when the incumbent retired (I think Stan Hovdebo is the classic example ... didn't he run all those times against Diefenbaker before getting elected?).

Now this is not to downplay your more general point, but I still don't think the NDP will ever run a full-tilt boogie campaign in Wild Rose, Alberta; whoever runs for the Greens in The Battlefords Lloydminster (home of the Oilsands, is what I meant) is running for different reasons than an expectation of getting elected; and the Liberal who runs in Saguenay-Lac St-Jean must have a pretty realistic understanding of the type of campaign they're embarking on there too.

[ 16 March 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]

[ 16 March 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 16 March 2008 09:21 AM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interesting advance poll figures for the four ridings and their respective advance poll figures during the 2006 election in parentheses:

Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River: 850 (2,365)

Toronto Centre: 1,721 (5,220)

Vancouver Quadra: 3,437 (6,097)

Willowdale: 1,462 (6,057)

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=med&document=mar1208b&dir=pre&lang=e&textonly=false

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/03/advance-poll-turnout-high-in-vancouver.php


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Centrist
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posted 16 March 2008 10:16 AM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by asterix:
Desnethé's an utterly unpredictable riding that could go to any of the three major parties

Interesting to note that many pundits view the Con candidate as the odds on favourite to take the riding... yet...

quote:
[CTV reporter Caillin] Katnich said RCMP officer Rob Clarke, the Conservative candidate, told him he didn't think he was going to win.

Now that's certainly an oddball comment to make by a perceived frontrunner!

http://www.ctvbc.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20080316/byelection_tomorrow_080316/20080316/?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

[ 16 March 2008: Message edited by: Centrist ]


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melovesproles
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posted 16 March 2008 11:24 AM      Profile for melovesproles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Reference was made to an earlier post that simply said the NDP had 'written off' Quadra.

Bear in mind, that OO was referencing my post and that I didn't say that the NDP had simply 'written off' Quadra. The word 'if' was used to indicate that it was a conditional statement. I'd appreciate it if you didn't misrepresent what I write.

quote:
OO would know that the opposite was the case, and I think was simply offering reasons why it might look like that.

That is good to hear.


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adma
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posted 16 March 2008 12:38 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

There are plenty of stories of long-time NDP candidates running numerous times, and then suddently getting elected when the incumbent retired (I think Stan Hovdebo is the classic example ... didn't he run all those times against Diefenbaker before getting elected?).
[ 16 March 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


Even at least couple of great examples in 2006: Chris Charlton + Irene Mathyssen. (And Alex Atamenenko's win deserves due credit, too, even if juiced up by the Zeisman affair.)


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David Young
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posted 16 March 2008 02:49 PM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
(I think Stan Hovdebo is the classic example ... didn't he run all those times against Diefenbaker before getting elected?).

For the record, Stan Hovdebo placed second in the 1979 election, then won the by-election in PRINCE ALBERT after Diefenbaker died in August that year.


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ottawaobserver
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posted 16 March 2008 02:53 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Canwest setup piece on the by-elections; just posted here.
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redflag
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posted 16 March 2008 05:36 PM      Profile for redflag     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
In Toronto, Rae and Tindal keep praising each other for running "positive campaigns" about issues, etc.

This is predictable. This started in the London-North-Centre by-election when Glen Pearson and Elizabeth May got in bed together. In fact, I once asked Pearson what his thoughts about the by-election were, and he said that the thing that really sealed the deal was the way in which the Greens and the Liberals were able to work together.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 16 March 2008 11:09 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I know nothing of the goings on in the Saskatchewan riding, so here are my estimates for the safe Lib ridings

TC:

LIB, 55%
NDP, 21%
CPC, 12%
GRN, 11%

Willowdale:

LIB, 52%
CPC, 27%
NDP, 10%
GRN, 10%

Quadra:

LIB, 46%
CPC, 27%
NDP, 14%
GRN, 12%


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
tweety
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posted 17 March 2008 06:00 AM      Profile for tweety        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
...so here are my estimates for the safe Lib ridings

TC:

LIB, 55%
NDP, 21%
CPC, 12%
GRN, 11%


Admittedly, a lot depends on turnout, and the new late closing of the polls, but here it goes:

L = 60%
N = 15
G = 15
C = 10


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
tweety
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posted 17 March 2008 06:01 AM      Profile for tweety        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
...so here are my estimates for the safe Lib ridings

TC:

LIB, 55%
NDP, 21%
CPC, 12%
GRN, 11%



Admittedly, a lot depends on turnout, and the new late closing of the polls, but here it goes:

TC

L = 60%
N = 15
G = 15
C = 10

Willowdale

L = 49%
C = 30
N = 13
G = 8

I agree with the other predictions.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: tweety ]


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KenS
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posted 17 March 2008 07:29 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Two Toronto Centre predictions:

quote:
LP:

LIB, 55%
NDP, 21%
CPC, 12%
GRN, 11%

Tweety:

L = 60%
N = 15
G = 15
C = 10


As noted, a lot depends on turnout. But more so than usual. This is a slam dunk for Rae, and the by-elections have been long, slow and under the radar.

So not only hard to predict, but I don't think we'll be able to pick out anything at all from the 2 Toronto outcomes.

That said, I would think the Cons will not go much lower than their historical poor showing of 20% in TC. They were already reduced to close to the hard core, who are more likely to vote.

And I don't see it possible for the GP to pull even with the NDP at the same time the Liberals get 60%. [I doubt either will happen.]

ETA: I suppose the Greens could pick up and unusual number of royally pissed off Cons voters- backwash to the heavy handed central party hand in the riding.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
kylebailey260
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posted 17 March 2008 09:00 AM      Profile for kylebailey260     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In regards to earlier speculation about 'internal' or 'push-polls' were being made in Toronto Centre for the Greeens, it may be that such canvassing was never done. I was on the ground, foot canvassing with Chris on March 9 & 10, and I'm fairly sure that there was no polling results at that point, and that there was debate as to whether or not to use the direct dial voter ID/poll system.
(Autodialed machine questions are not exactly a great way to get voter ID!)

I may be mistaken, but I suspect that such systems are done by third-party contracters who specialize in that sort of thing, so the caller ID would probably not show up as 'Green,' which would create a pretty terrible response bias as mentioned above.

In terms of measuring voter intentions, to track momentum, and strength in particular areas, I think the Gree campaign in TC was relying on foot canvassing results.

I find it interesting that we haven't heard any polling numbers from any of the parties in TC.

Anyway, my predictions are obviously biased given that I'm going to be doing some GOTV calling soon- but here goes:

Lib: 53%
Grn: 16%
NDP: 16%
Con: 15%


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Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 09:07 AM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Not that it's going to make much difference to the outcome, but I only just remembered to go vote today. Which tells you all just about how excited I am by these byelections.
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West Coast Greeny
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posted 17 March 2008 09:55 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My predictions:
Toronto-Centre
LIB 60%
NDP 14%
GRN 14%
CPC 12%

Vancouver-Quadra
LIB 43%
CPC 24%
GRN 18%
NDP 15%

Densthe - Churchill River
CPC 40%
LIB 35%
NDP 15%
GRN 5%

Willowdale
LIB 55%
CPC 20%
NDP 15%
GRN 10%


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Banjo
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posted 17 March 2008 11:03 AM      Profile for Banjo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Greeny:
My predictions:
Toronto-Centre
LIB 60%
NDP 14%
GRN 14%
CPC 12%

I'm a Toronto Centre NDP supporter, who was thinking why bother going on a 40 minute walk there and back to vote in this by-election, since we have no chance.

You and whatever idiot put the poll so far away to guarantee a low turnout have at least ensured that I will get some exercise today.


From: progress not perfection in Toronto | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 17 March 2008 11:13 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Good. I don't want to see Bob Rae totally run away with the riding, I'm just saying I predict he will.
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 11:40 AM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Banjo:

You and whatever idiot put the poll so far away to guarantee a low turnout have at least ensured that I will get some exercise today.

I have the same problem. It's still walking distance, sure, but isn't anywhere near as convenient as the location for the provincial election was.


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tweety
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posted 17 March 2008 11:49 AM      Profile for tweety        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
That said, I would think the Cons will not go much lower than their historical poor showing of 20% in TC. They were already reduced to close to the hard core, who are more likely to vote.

And I don't see it possible for the GP to pull even with the NDP at the same time the Liberals get 60%. [I doubt either will happen.]

ETA: I suppose the Greens could pick up and unusual number of royally pissed off Cons voters- backwash to the heavy handed central party hand in the riding.


The Tory low in Toronto Centre is 15% in 2004 and 18% in 2006. Whether they fall below 15% will depend on turnout. If turnout in Rosedale is slightly higher than 30% (based on the advance polls) then they might get the 15%. If not, they will fall to 10%. In recent elections the Rosedalians tend to vote at the same rate as the rest of the riding so an outcome below 15% is likely.

As for the Greens, my sense is that they will take from disaffected Tories and Dippers and Grits. If that happens, Tindal can come second.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 17 March 2008 12:17 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Compare and contrast:

Bob Rae, who let his own caucus defeat gay rights, and then left the NDP because it was too principled for him.

Jack Layton, who enforced discipline on a matter of party principle even when it meant losing Churchill riding.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 March 2008 01:44 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tweety:

The Tory low in Toronto Centre is 15% in 2004 and 18% in 2006. Whether they fall below 15% will depend on turnout. If turnout in Rosedale is slightly higher than 30% (based on the advance polls) then they might get the 15%. If not, they will fall to 10%. In recent elections the Rosedalians tend to vote at the same rate as the rest of the riding so an outcome below 15% is likely.

As for the Greens, my sense is that they will take from disaffected Tories and Dippers and Grits. If that happens, Tindal can come second.


In 2004 and 2006 the CPC ran very low profile "red" Tories. This time the socially conservative Meredith has been getting very negative press (and Rae is much more appealing to Rosedalians). I guess we'll see soon enough what happens.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
ghoris
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posted 17 March 2008 02:44 PM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Liberals will get 60% of the vote in Toronto Centre and Willowdale.

Quadra I think will be a bit closer than most people think - Libs will still win by about 5,000 votes.

Desnethe will be a toss-up. Liberals by a hair.


From: Vancouver | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 17 March 2008 03:33 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by tweety:
As for the Greens, my sense is that they will take from disaffected Tories and Dippers and Grits. If that happens, Tindal can come second.

Parallels, maybe, w/the indy John Sewell provincial vote in 1999...


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robbie_dee
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posted 17 March 2008 05:16 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
When are results expected?
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ottawaobserver
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posted 17 March 2008 05:43 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by robbie_dee:
When are results expected?

They can't report anything until the polls close at 7PM Pacific (10PM Eastern).


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Albireo
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posted 17 March 2008 06:02 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Rae has 59% of the first 30 polls, looks like the expected cake-walk.

NDP-New Democratic Party El-Farouk Khaki 187 10.0 10.0%
Conservative Donald Meredith 284 15.1 15.1%
CAP Doug Plumb 3 0.2 0.2%
Liberal Bob Rae 1,119 59.6 59.6%
Green Party Chris Tindal 284 15.1 15.1%
AAEV Party of Canada Liz White 1 0.1 0.1%
Total number of valid votes: 1,878

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: Albireo ]


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Albireo
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posted 17 March 2008 06:04 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Cons winning in DMCR, 35 of 81 polls:

Liberal Joan Beatty 528 27.1 27.1%
Conservative Rob Clarke 1,056 54.3 54.3%
NDP-New Democratic Party Brian Morin 321 16.5 16.5%
Green Party Robin Orr 41 2.1 2.1%
Total number of valid votes: 1,946


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aka Mycroft
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posted 17 March 2008 06:16 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nothing from Quadra. Hall Findlay is cleaning up in Willowdale with almost 60% of the vote.
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Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 06:16 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oooh...the other sacrificial lambs are doing better than the one I picked. Sorry, it's a curse when I vote for you, it really is.
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Albireo
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posted 17 March 2008 06:18 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Green is actually making a good run at 2nd in TC. I guess it helps that the Con was a social conservative evangelical parachute, and (even more suspicious, apparently) the NDP candidate is a great guy, but has a Muslim name. Horrors.
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Michelle
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posted 17 March 2008 06:18 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Holy crap. The Green Party is doing better than the NDP in Toronto Centre? That's sad.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
UWSofty
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posted 17 March 2008 06:19 PM      Profile for UWSofty   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
By-election results are available at Election's Canada Website.
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Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 06:21 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Then again, it's early to say for absolute sure. Votes in TC seem to come in roughly from north to south, and the NDP voters aren't in the north end.
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Centrist
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posted 17 March 2008 06:22 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Albireo:
Liberal Joan Beatty 27.1%
Conservative Rob Clarke 54.3%
NDP Brian Morin 16.5%
Green Party Robin Orr 2.1%

That 27% spread has now gone down to around 16% with 60/182 reporting.


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UWSofty
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posted 17 March 2008 06:27 PM      Profile for UWSofty   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
First Vancouver Quadra poll reporting:
code:

NDP-New Democratic Party Rebecca Coad 12 13.6 13.6%
CAP Psamuel Frank 0 0.0 0.0%
Green Party Dan Grice 10 11.4 11.4%
Conservative Deborah Meredith 31 35.2 35.2%
Liberal Joyce Murray 34 38.6 38.6%
neorhino.ca John Turner 1 1.1 1.1%


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robbie_dee
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posted 17 March 2008 06:29 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the Conservatives win Quadra Dion should resign.
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Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 06:30 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
See, I'm right...now there's just 100 voters separating the New Democrat from the Green. A good night for the Green candidate either way, though.
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Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 March 2008 06:32 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by robbie_dee:
If the Conservatives win Quadra Dion should resign.

No kidding.


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remind
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posted 17 March 2008 06:48 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the Liberals lose Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, just watch them blame the NDP.

And for the moment, the NDP are beating the Greens in Vancouver Quadra.


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aka Mycroft
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posted 17 March 2008 06:48 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Tories are in the lead in Quadra but only about 10% of the polls are in. Greens, NDP and Tories are in a tight three way race for second place in Toronto Centre.
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Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 06:52 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If present trends continue, its a very bad night for Stephane Dion. He will have to take responsibily for picking the wrong candidate in DMCR and if the Liberals only win narrowly in Quadra - its a very bad sign. Also, how does it make Dion look if the two big winners for the Liberals are two people who were his opponents for the Liberal leadership!
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Banjo
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posted 17 March 2008 06:53 PM      Profile for Banjo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My apartment building in Toronto Centre is mostly working class with what seems like a higher proportion of gays. For the Liberals I noticed 3 distributions and one canvas. The Greens had 2 distributions, and one mailing. The Cons had 2 mailings.

I saw no evidence of the NDP. What has happened? Where are the legions of supporters we used to muster for by-elections? Were we trying to downplay this knowing we were going to lose it anyway?

I spent decades as a foot soldier working for the NDP. Now I consider myself retired. Are a lot of people like me? Are we too old and tired, and give up the protest party status to a right-wing trendy party, with no idea of the long evolution of humankind to equality?


From: progress not perfection in Toronto | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 17 March 2008 06:58 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doug:
Then again, it's early to say for absolute sure. Votes in TC seem to come in roughly from north to south, and the NDP voters aren't in the north end.

Huh. Looks like you're right. The latest Elections Canada refresh has the NDP ahead by a 10th of a point.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 March 2008 06:58 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
If present trends continue, its a very bad night for Stephane Dion. He will have to take responsibily for picking the wrong candidate in DMCR and if the Liberals only win narrowly in Quadra - its a very bad sign. Also, how does it make Dion look if the two big winners for the Liberals are two people who were his opponents for the Liberal leadership!

It isn't a particularly good night for Jack Layton either.

I'm quite surprised how strong the Conservatives are polling in Quadra. Having the affluent urban old-style PC's warmed up to Harper, or are we getting mainly results from the Quilchena half rather than the Point Grey half?


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Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 06:59 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP has moved into second place in Toronto Centre.

Quadra is looking surprisingly close!


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 March 2008 07:05 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So far it looks like Liberal votes are bleeding to the Greens and Tories. If the Tories actually are competitive, I suppose this is the downside as the Greens as the Liberal farm team!
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Centrist
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posted 17 March 2008 07:06 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, looking at the surprisingly close Quadra race, the Cons could have picked a red-Tory star candidate, namingly BC Cancer Foundation head Mary McNeil, at their nomination meeting.

Had she been the nominee for the Cons and based upon the results so far, Quadra would have been a Con win!

But let's see... as only 70/237 polls are reporting.


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Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 07:07 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In the 2006 election, the NDP took 16% in Quadra and now they are at 14% - so the Green increase seems to be almost all coming from the Liberals.

Dion: "I have created a monster!!"


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 07:09 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
so far that treacherous opportunist Joan Beatty is getting vivisected in Saskatchewan.
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pebbles
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posted 17 March 2008 07:10 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
So far it looks like Liberal votes are bleeding to the Greens and Tories. If the Tories actually are competitive, I suppose this is the downside as the Greens as the Liberal farm team!

Bleeding where? In the two Toronto ridings at least, the Liberal vote (%) is UP vs. 2006, and the Tories are down in one, and up by less than 1% in the other.


From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 March 2008 07:11 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Looks like the Liberals have lost Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, but will get the other 3.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 07:13 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think LP is referring to the crumbling Liberal vote in Vancouver-Quadra.
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Michelle
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posted 17 March 2008 07:18 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hey, I didn't realize anyone was still running for the Rhino party. The Vancouver by-election has a "neorhino" running. Check out the weird splash page on their web site at neorhino.ca.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
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posted 17 March 2008 07:20 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
so far that treacherous opportunist Joan Beatty is getting vivisected in Saskatchewan.

Joan needed to think about the optics in this riding, having just won for the NDP and than turning red on a dime. Perhaps she would have faired better running as a NDP.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: janfromthebruce ]


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
martin dufresne
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posted 17 March 2008 07:25 PM      Profile for martin dufresne   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
so far that treacherous opportunist Joan Beatty is getting vivisected in Saskatchewan.
I am sure you will find your sojourn in Salem quite agreeable, Oh Grand Inquisitor...

From: "Words Matter" (Mackinnon) | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Rich L
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posted 17 March 2008 07:26 PM      Profile for Rich L     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
Those internal polls of the GP are interesting- on many fronts.

This GP polling seems to be essentially 'push polling'. It's not even really an 'internal poll' in any meamingful sense. The purpose of the "polling" is to push people your way.

And in this case, since there are such low expectations for you, to broadcast the 'polling' results.

You can see from the website release that they did an automated call to most households in quadra, and are reporting on the approx 2% who responded [in a way not specified, and with no bias to the numbers of course].

In Desenthe they only mention about 720 calls in the first place- so that's maybe a couple or a few dozen responses?


quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

I read the releases to say they got 237 responses in DMCR; it was 761 responses in Willowdale. Only in Quadra do they mention how many calls they placed in order to get that response rate.

It also matters what the source name and number of the phone call was. I thought I remembered reading somewhere else that someone in Toronto got phoned by the Greens from a Vancouver number. If the called ID says "Green Party" and it's a long distance number and a prerecorded message, that would affect the response rates. Being a local call in Vancouver would affect them differently there. Plus, I doubt the response rate in northern Saskatchewan would be very high at all for these types of calls, so the results there probably favour the southern part of the riding.

Anyways, as I said, we'll know how predictive the methodology is on Monday. And, whether they have inadvertantly set expectations too high for what their performance turns out to be. Or, whether the tactic succeeded in reinforcing the motivation of Green supporters to get out to the polls. Again, it's curious that these results would only be released for 3 of the 4 ridings, and raises the question of whether the results in Toronto Centre were not what they hoped for, or are being saved for tomorrow.



I guess our answer is in: we now know to take Green polling numbers with a grain of salt.

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill:

Green polling numbers: Second place, at 13.9% (plus a likely portion of the 35% undecided)
Reality check: Fourth place, at 3.3% (with nearly all polls in)

Willowdale:

Green polling numbers: Third place, at 12% (plus a likely portion of the 29% undecided)
Reality check: Third place, at 5.9% (with nearly all polls in)

Vancouver Quadra:

Green polling numbers: Second place, at 18.8% (plus a likely portion of the 26% undecided)
Reality check: Fourth place, at 14.5% (with about half the polls in)

Green Party poll


From: Winnipeg | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
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posted 17 March 2008 07:30 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
It isn't a particularly good night for Jack Layton either.

Yeah, it's not a good sign when the NDP just squeaks ahead of the Conservatives in Toronto!


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 17 March 2008 07:33 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A tie in TC - 2813 each for the NDP and Greens!
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Stockholm
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posted 17 March 2008 07:37 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interestingly in Vancouver Quadra, the so-called green vote rose from 6% to 14% - but the NDP vote has also gone up fractionally from 16% to 16.5% and the Tory vote has increased from 28% to 31%. The plummeting Liberal vote (48% down to 37%) seems to have gone Green.
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Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 07:39 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP may or may not be spared immediate embarrassment, but the strategic and tactical issues this confirms as a concern are going to be lasting. The Greens can't be simply laughed off anymore.
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janfromthebruce
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posted 17 March 2008 07:39 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
A tie in TC - 2813 each for the NDP and Greens!

not anymore, NDP just 'squeaked' ahead. Maybe we should try push polling.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: janfromthebruce ]


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MCunningBC
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posted 17 March 2008 07:48 PM      Profile for MCunningBC        Edit/Delete Post
Perhaps if one cannot out green the Greens, you have to go back to what were once called bread and butter issues and make sure people realize that the Greens are in an opposite place on those things, such as universal child care, which their upper middle class supporters would never agree to.
From: BC | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 March 2008 07:48 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Green's push polling only seemed to work mfor Willowdale.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 17 March 2008 07:50 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My predictions (actual results):
Toronto-Centre
LIB 60% (59%)
NDP 14% (14%)
GRN 14% (14%)
CPC 12% (13%)

Vancouver-Quadra
LIB 43% (36%)
CPC 24% (31%)
GRN 18% (15%)
NDP 15% (16%)

Densthe - Churchill River
CPC 40% (48%)
LIB 35% (31%)
NDP 15% (16%)
GRN 5% (3%)
(And no, I can't count)

Willowdale
LIB 55% (59%)
CPC 20% (30%)
NDP 15% (5%)
GRN 10% (6%)

A very good night for the Green Party, not a great one (a great one would have met my optimistic predictions), but a very good one. Within a point of 2nd in Toronto-Centre, 3rd in Willowdale, and within a point of 3rd in Vancouver-Quadra. Twice the party beat thier best result of the 2006 election. This bodes well for Adrienne Carr in Vancouver - Centre.

Its good enough to become a theme for CTV's coverage, but not good enough to get a strategist on TV. On the other hand, listening to the strategists yell at each other, maybe we don't want one.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 17 March 2008 07:51 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And its not "push polling", its poor polling.
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 March 2008 07:53 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Think I will wait until all the polls are counted then compare your predictions WCG.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Uncle John
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posted 17 March 2008 07:55 PM      Profile for Uncle John     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The numbers don't look good for the NDP. The Greens are doing a lot better than I would have thought.

It's like the Reform Party all over again.


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
MCunningBC
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posted 17 March 2008 08:04 PM      Profile for MCunningBC        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Uncle John:
It's like the Reform Party all over again.

A scarey thought if ever there was one.


From: BC | Registered: Jan 2008  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 March 2008 08:04 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The reform could do nothing in and of itself, so I guess you are correct the Greens are like the reformatories. But maybe they just got all their voters out, and maybe the NDP failed to do so, so who know with 1/4 of the voters voting, what would happen in an actual election other
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 17 March 2008 08:39 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's probably more of a shocker in Quadra that the winner'll have less than 40% of the vote...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 17 March 2008 09:29 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Will all polls in, the NDP won second place in Toronto Centre...*just*:

Liberal 14,187 59.2%
NDP 3,299 13.8%
Green 3,263 13.6%
Conservative 2,982 12.5%

I'm glad I remembered to vote!

It is kind of amusing and perhaps will satisfy some people's sense of cosmic justice that the animal rights party in securing 123 votes may have cost the Green Party the outcome it wanted.

[ 17 March 2008: Message edited by: Doug ]


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 17 March 2008 09:31 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
And its not "push polling", its poor polling.

I don't think it's a big deal WCG, but it's essentially push polling- even if it isn't classic push polling.

Why on earth would the GP spend money on polling just to see where the vote was at? It wasn't going to make any difference for resource distribution.

I'd have to see the scripts to be certain, but it doesn't really make sense that the phoning was for any reason but to move voters.

The responses were just icing on the cake- fodder for those news releases.


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jrose
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posted 17 March 2008 09:37 PM      Profile for jrose     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Closing for length.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Oct 2006  |  IP: Logged

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