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Author Topic: 8/17 Decima poll
josh
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posted 17 August 2006 06:02 PM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

The Tories had 36 per cent support nationally, while the Liberals were at 29 per cent and the NDP at 15, according to a telephone poll by Decima Research Inc. conducted Aug. 10-13.

. . . .

The latest Decima numbers are similar to the election results that gave the Tories 124 seats, 31 shy of a parliamentary majority.

In Quebec, the Bloc had 41 per cent support, the Tories, 23, and the Liberals, 19.

In Ontario, the Liberals were at 37 per cent, the Conservatives, 36, and the NDP, 16.

The latest survey of 1,004 Canadians is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.



http://tinyurl.com/rzy9c


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
farnival
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posted 17 August 2006 07:57 PM      Profile for farnival     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Tories bounce back in poll, but trail in Ontario, Quebec

OTTAWA -- The federal Conservatives recovered from a slide in the polls and regained a sizeable lead over the Liberals nationally, but they trail in Ontario and Quebec, a new public-opinion survey suggests.


the parts i find funny about this josh is the useage of "bounce back" and "recovered...". So they have recovered so much and bounce right back to the level of support they had on election day.

Not really a ringing endorsement of their progress so far, and not what i would call a gain in support, now is it? there is obviously a ceiling to the number of troglodytes in this country and the cons have reached it. interesting to note that this is the highest number reached in all the Reform/Alliance-PC/Conservative history. haha.

[ 17 August 2006: Message edited by: farnival ]


From: where private gain trumps public interest, and apparently that's just dandy. | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
glacier76
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posted 17 August 2006 08:02 PM      Profile for glacier76     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Where did they get the "bounce back" if they lost support in Quebec and Ontario? Oooohhh, now they have 95% support in Alberta! That'll do them really good!
From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
farnival
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posted 17 August 2006 08:05 PM      Profile for farnival     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by glacier76:
... Oooohhh, now they have 95% support in Alberta! That'll do them really good!

it's that 5% alberta hippie crowd spoiling everything! this obvious attempt at spinning the numbers is clearly the liberal media bias at work.

[ 17 August 2006: Message edited by: farnival ]


From: where private gain trumps public interest, and apparently that's just dandy. | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 17 August 2006 11:26 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
...and with a simple calculator you can prove what the press release neglects to mention!

In Ontario, there is 11% support remaining for the Greens and other parties.
In Quebec, there is 17% support remaining for the NDP and other parties.
Across Canada, there is 20% support remaining for the Bloc and other parties.

Why must they neglect us! Just because the NPD and the Greens have no chance of winning a seat? I feel neglected. (So should Quebec socialists!)

Okay, got that one rant out of the way.


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
johnpauljones
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posted 18 August 2006 05:30 AM      Profile for johnpauljones     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
what is more telling to me is the complete failure of the Lying Liberals to pick up any ground.

The public had a "knife" at the throat of the Cons and the fiberals could do nothing.

Once again the only true opposition is the NDP


From: City of Toronto | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 18 August 2006 06:44 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So why do you suppose the NDP has also failed to make any gains?
From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Martha (but not Stewart)
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posted 18 August 2006 06:50 AM      Profile for Martha (but not Stewart)     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A bit of thread drift, but the above question got me curious about what were the NDP's highest poll numbers in recent history. Apparently, in July 1987, the NDP was at 41 per cent popularity compared with 35 per cent for the Liberals and 23 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives. (Here's the source: click "Did You Know?" to get the above info and a little more detail.) The popular vote in the ensuing election on November 21, 1988, was PC 43.02%, Liberal 31.92%, NDP 20.38%, Reform 2.09%. (See here.)

[ 18 August 2006: Message edited by: Martha (but not Stewart) ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
johnpauljones
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posted 18 August 2006 06:51 AM      Profile for johnpauljones     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Martha I would assume the high number in 1987 was based on the opposition to the Free Trade Agreement.
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Proaxiom
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posted 18 August 2006 06:58 AM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Liberals opposed the FTA too, though.

In any case, such a 1987 polling number seems suspect unless you can explain why the NDP got only half that level in the election a year later.


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Martha (but not Stewart)
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posted 18 August 2006 07:00 AM      Profile for Martha (but not Stewart)     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Proaxiom:
The In any case, such a 1987 polling number seems suspect unless you can explain why the NDP got only half that level in the election a year later.

I certainly can't explain it, but I was a toddler at the time and not paying much attention! Can anyone explain why the NDP's numbers went from over 40% in 1987 to just over 20% in the 1988 election?


From: Toronto | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
Noise
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posted 18 August 2006 08:13 AM      Profile for Noise     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
there is obviously a ceiling to the number of troglodytes in this country and the cons have reached it.

I'm begining to see that too and question if the Cons can ever turn a Majority within this nation (without more policy shifts towards the center)... Theres a limit to the number of people that can be swayed to Conservatism it seem.


From: Protest is Patriotism | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 18 August 2006 11:36 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There's a book about it called:
Election, the issues, the strategies, the aftermath by Gerald Caplan, Michael Kirby, Hugh Segal

Basically, the story is that the NDP peaked in 1987 then started dropping over the summer to fall to 20% by the election in 1988. The fall was do to several factors: improvement in the popularity of the other parties (Mulroney behaved himself for a while, the Liberals put a lid on their leadership bickering), an end to vote-parking (people only said they'd vote NDP because they were mad at the other two parties), failure to capitalise on the free trade issue (the NDP tried to run away from its opposition to free trade to avoid being painted as anti-American, etc.), Turner's performance in the debates, and the difficulty of coming back from behind in a three-way then two-way race.


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Left Turn
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posted 18 August 2006 03:47 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Martha (but not Stwewart) wrote:
quote:
A bit of thread drift, but the above question got me curious about what were the NDP's highest poll numbers in recent history.

The NDP's highest polling number since the last federal election was 24% in a Decima poll from February 13, 2006. I seem to recall that the NDP ate into Liberal support in Quebec at this time and were actually tied with the Liberals in support in that province.

Politics Canada: National Polls

The Complete results of that poll were:

Con: 35%
Lib: 25%
NDP: 24%
Bloc: 8%

The NDP quickly lost the support they gained in Quebec, and the current poll results are:

Con: 36%
Lib: 29%
NDP: 15%
Bloc 10%

Note that neither poll mentioned a number for the Greens. As such, the current poll does not account for the responses of 10% of the respondents, which to me seems like poor methodology.

It is also interesting to note that since the 2004 election the Greens have polled higher on average in the summer than they have in the winter. The July 31 Decima poll did have the Greens at 8%. It will be interesting to see what happens to this support (as in where it goes when much of it eveporates, as poliing patterns suggest it will).

[ 18 August 2006: Message edited by: Left Turn ]


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
arborman
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posted 18 August 2006 04:11 PM      Profile for arborman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A lot will depend on the Liberal leadership race. If they don't pick a francophone from Quebec, they'll lose a lot of support - given the traditional rotation back and forth. On the other hand, Stephane Dion isn't exactly popular in some Quebec circles, so it might backfire there as well.

I wouldn't read much into a poll until the House is sitting again. With a minority government, people will be paying attention, and who knows what might develop.


From: I'm a solipsist - isn't everyone? | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Inquirus
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posted 19 August 2006 07:02 PM      Profile for Inquirus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hello... I would be interested to hear what everyone thinks about the possibility that bias may exist in the Decima poll that has been quoted repeatedly throughout this thread. I have heard that the major polling companies (e.g., Pollara, Ipsos-Reid, SES, Decima, etc.) have loyalties to particular media souces as well as political parties. Does anyone believe Decima to have loyalties that are partisan? Also, given that 'random digit dialing' methodology yields on average a meager 15% response rate for most public opinion polls, how much faith should we have in the accuracy of such polls? Pollsters are the first to trumpet the accuracy of their results, but there are many counterexamples of polls that were 'way off the mark', yet discounted, ignored, or explained away 'after the fact' by the pundits. Futhermore, given that changes in question wording (and/or the response options that are provided) can cause results to vary by as much as 25%, shouldn't we examine the source and/or methodology for evidence of bias rather than becoming fixated on slight changes in approval ratings? My intention here is not to damn the potential utility of opinion polling... but rather to highlight the concerns that have been raised by others in the past. Finally, a public thanks and KUDOS to the people who make rabble (and babble) possible. Respectfully yours, Chris :-)
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 19 August 2006 09:45 PM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If you look at recent polls (over the last 8 months, say), Decima has tended to highball NDP support -- a couple of the results in the 20-22 range were from Decima. Whatever their bias, I don't think it systematically underestimates the NDP.

Some pollsters claim their various ways to compensate for the poor response rate with RDD are sufficient. Others say that it is increasingly a problem and threatening the reliability of polls, hence experiments with internet-based polling in some firms. I am sure there are technical papers in academic journals examining this question. Here is an example of a google search that might lead you to some of them.


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Nopiming
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posted 20 August 2006 12:04 AM      Profile for Nopiming     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Decima has changed some of its methodology for this poll, and subsequent ones. It seems that before this particular poll, they were not reading "Green Party" as one of the options. Now they are. They admit that this may lowball NDP support (by like 4%) and over-estimate GP support, but are willing to live with that.

Measuring Canada's Green Party - Decima (PDF)


From: Courtenay, BC | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Naci_Sey
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posted 20 August 2006 09:21 AM      Profile for Naci_Sey   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Although I'm glad they're finally prompting for the Green Party, I'd advise skepticism of any Decima poll.

I've occasionally participated in Decima internet polls and have complained several times about the wording of questions. The complaint is similar each time. Decima forces choices among items, none of which people may choose otherwise. Then subsequent questions are framed on the basis of that forced choice.

E.g., on voter polls re political parties, they were forcing a choice among the CPC, Libs and NDP - no GPC, Other, or None of the Above was available as an option.

Other Decima questions include assumptions which the respondent may not agree with; however, the question isn't about those assumptions but something else. Others are inconsistent, where the assumption - implicitly or explicitly framed - has no logical connection to the question.

Either Decima is guilty of sloppy work or they are structuring their polls this way deliberately, in which case they are guilty of unethical practices.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2006  |  IP: Logged

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