babble home
rabble.ca - news for the rest of us
today's active topics


Post New Topic  Post A Reply
FAQ | Forum Home
  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» babble   » from far and wide   » manitoba, ontario, quebec   » Why has the NDP lost ground in Toronto?

Email this thread to someone!    
Author Topic: Why has the NDP lost ground in Toronto?
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 18 October 2008 10:56 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
NDP vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008 in the Old City of Toronto ridings:

B-EY: 32.2%, 35.0%, 32.2%
Danforth: 46.4%, 48.4%, 45.0%
Dav.: 34.1%, 32.6%, 31.3%
P-HP: 34.5%, 40.4%, 36.0%
SP: 15.7%, 19.2%, 13.3%
TC: 23.7%, 23.7%, 15.1%
T-S: 42.0%, 46.0%, 40.9%

It was pretty depressing to be in High Park that night, and Olivia didn't do as well as expected either (if a more popular Lib leader were there - they might have taken it back). It seems that the Greens have eaten into the NDP vote in Toronto, perhaps drawing from the urban middle class progressive vote that Layton was initially accused by many of being too aligned with.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 19 October 2008 07:32 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
NDP vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008 in the Old City of Toronto ridings:

B-EY: 32.2%, 35.0%, 32.2%
Danforth: 46.4%, 48.4%, 45.0%
Dav.: 34.1%, 32.6%, 31.3%
P-HP: 34.5%, 40.4%, 36.0%
SP: 15.7%, 19.2%, 13.3%
TC: 23.7%, 23.7%, 15.1%
T-S: 42.0%, 46.0%, 40.9%


I suppose we might as well add 2007's provincial numbers for good measure...

B-EY: 44.32%
T-Dan: 45.85%
Davenport: 36.49%
P-HP: 44.71%
StP: 15.74%
TC: 18.82%
T-S: 41.15%

And for the heck of it, for the total overview, other Toronto seats (+ 2007 provincial)...

DVE: 13.2%, 12.9%, 13.3% (10.6%)
DVW: 8.6%. 9.1%. 10.2% (4.7%)
Eg-L: 10.4%, 11.5%. 8.4% (10.0%)
EtC: 9.9%, 9.6%, 8.3% (8.4%)
EtL: 14.5%, 15.6%, 11.7% (13.3%)
EtN: 12.2%, 10.6%, 15.7% (14.9%)
P-SE: 11.2%, 11.6%, 10.6% (11.2%)
ScA: 10.2%, 11.1%, 9.3% (10.5%)
ScC: 16.8%, 14.0%, 15.8% (13.3%)
ScG: 16.2%, 14.2%, 14.4% (21.9%)
ScRR: 9.3%, 10.8%, 14.7% (13.7%)
ScSW: 22.3%, 23.1%, 18.8% (18.1%)
Wil: 9.6%, 11.4%, 10.2% (8.3%)
YC: 13.7%, 13.6%, 12.1% (10.9%)
YSW: 21.2%, 21.3%, 28.0% (41.5%)
YW: 15.3%, 14.1%, 18.7% (28.0%)

I offer that sans commentary (for now, if only to save energy)


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 20 October 2008 08:20 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think that there are a few things going on here.

One is that having the so-called green party at something 10% in Toronto reduces the available number of votes for all parties. The NDP vote may be stagnant - but so is the Liberal vote. In fact the Liberal vote took a pretty big hit in Trinity-Spadina and Danforth this time as well.

The one bright spot for the NDP in Toronto was York South-Weston where the vote went up a lot this time.

I think that more and more Toronto is seceding from the rest of Canada in terms of having its own unique voting pattern that is completely different from the rest of Ontario (let alone the rest of Canada).

For the NDP, I think that there are probably two factors that create challenges in Toronto:

1. You cannot underestimate the impact of having a shamelessly pro-Liberal partisan rag like the Toronto Star as the main daily paper - and when day after day after day, the main daily paper reads like it was written by Liberal Party spin-doctors - it has to have some impact.

2. This election more than ever, the NDP under Layton ran a very class-based economically populist campaign. I think that this was the right thing to do under the circumstances and it was instrumental in sweeping northern Ontario and cementing the NDP lock on Hamilton, Windsor etc... and gaining ground in poorer and more blue collar ridings across Canada. BUT, in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - bit you can almost hear all the snooty Margaret Atwood types turning up their noses in horror. Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

It would be nice to please everyone, but in the end, the NDP is first and foremost a party that defends the interest of working class people and if we have to choose between gearing our message towards winning the votes of working class people or winning back Margaret Atwood - I think the former has to take precedence.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 20 October 2008 08:23 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Condos.

Edited to add: "Margaret Atwood types" - yeah, because international best-selling authors are a dime a dozen here in Toronto. They are a powerful voting block, that is for sure.

To be more clear: there is one "Margaret Atwood type" in Toronto - or Canada, for that matter. She would be Margaret Atwood.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: writer ]


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 20 October 2008 08:38 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
don't be too quick to stereotype people who live in condos either. There is a huge range and in my experience, more of than not the actual owners of the condos are absentee and you have people with very modest incomes renting studio-sized condos from the owners because its all they can afford.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 20 October 2008 08:56 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
What stereotypes? Stockholm, coming from you, I am getting a much-needed injection of humour for the day.
From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
St. Paul's Progressive
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12621

posted 20 October 2008 08:57 AM      Profile for St. Paul's Progressive     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially). Carolyn Bennett is also very personally popular and one of the most progressive Liberals. After seeing Kent lose so badly in '06, it's pretty clear St. Paul's has emerged into a very Liberal riding.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]


From: Toronto | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 20 October 2008 09:08 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
What stereotypes? Stockholm, coming from you, I am getting a much-needed injection of humour for the day.

Maybe I should conduct an experiment and see if I can EVER post on any topic at all, anytime, between today and the day I die and NOT have it provoke an immediate derisive, snarky, sarcastic comment from you.

I can already picture it. i will post my recipe for Paella Valenciana - and then be accused of showing insensitivity to people who fought against Franco in the Spanish Civil War!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 20 October 2008 09:26 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
And I challenge you to show me where I made any kind of statement that can be described as a stereotype of the people living in condos.

As opposed to your stereotype about "Margaret Atwood types" immediately above.

Rich, rich, rich, coming from you.

Sorry that pointing out the obvious has hurt your feelings.


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
St. Paul's Progressive
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12621

posted 20 October 2008 12:12 PM      Profile for St. Paul's Progressive     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
York South is an old NDP stronghold and it's nice to see a revival of the party there. Scarborough Southwest, Etobicoke North and York West could also be areas worth targeting.

Speaking of the "Yorks", one surprising result in Toronto was York Centre. The NDP used to have some strength there (Howard Moscoe ran there provincially for instance in Wilson Heights in the 70s and Downsview was NDP for years). But Dryden only won by 2500 votes - narrowing out the Tory. It used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in Canada. As a left-Lib, I would think he'd take some NDP votes that wanted to stop the Tories.

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]


From: Toronto | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged
Left Turn
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8662

posted 20 October 2008 12:39 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think the msm fearmongered a lot of people in Toronto into voting Liberal rather than NDP, by runninng stories about whether the Conservatives could pick up any ridings in Toronto. There were stories about how the Conservatives were competitive in Don Valley West, and were making a major push to win this riding. There was even one evening where polster Nick Nanos mused on CPAC that his polling numbers for the greater Toronto area might allow the Conservatives to pick up ridings like Etobicoke Lakeshore.
From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
St. Paul's Progressive
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12621

posted 20 October 2008 12:51 PM      Profile for St. Paul's Progressive     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Tories came very close in Don Valley West.
From: Toronto | Registered: May 2006  |  IP: Logged
madmax
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15139

posted 20 October 2008 02:44 PM      Profile for madmax   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Toronto Star has an effect in Toronto and alot of southern and Central Ontario.

People read it and believe it.


From: Ontario | Registered: Apr 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 20 October 2008 03:43 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
the NDP is first and foremost a party that defends the interest of working class people and if we have to choose between gearing our message towards winning the votes of working class people or winning back Margaret Atwood - I think the former has to take precedence.

Agreed.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1299

posted 20 October 2008 04:47 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially). Carolyn Bennett is also very personally popular and one of the most progressive Liberals. After seeing Kent lose so badly in '06, it's pretty clear St. Paul's has emerged into a very Liberal riding.

I would imagine that the Liberal campaign in St. Pauls also got a bit of a boost from the publicity surrounding the (quite reprehensible) targetted cutting of brake lines.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5594

posted 20 October 2008 04:54 PM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Was it a false flag operation to swing the sympathy vote for an otherwise high calibre candidate?

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Polunatic2
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12238

posted 20 October 2008 04:57 PM      Profile for Polunatic2   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think the only possible impact of the brake line cutting might have been to shake a few liberals out of their complacency and go to the polls. I've lived in St. Pauls for 12 years and it's been a liberal bastion federally the whole time.

I didn't know I was supposed to burn my Margaret Atwood books. I'll get right on that.


From: Toronto | Registered: Mar 2006  |  IP: Logged
The Singing Detective
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15655

posted 20 October 2008 06:01 PM      Profile for The Singing Detective     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by adma:

EtN: 12.2%, 10.6%, 15.7% (14.9%)
ScRR: 9.3%, 10.8%, 14.7% (13.7%)
YSW: 21.2%, 21.3%, 28.0% (41.5%)
YW: 15.3%, 14.1%, 18.7% (28.0%)

These are all largely non-white and working class areas, right?


From: Wales | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 20 October 2008 08:58 PM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Stock!!!

What's with the hate on for Atwood? Is there a book burning I don't know about. Has the central committee deemed her unrevolutionary and she must be purged???

My god you sound like a jilted lover who's out to trash the reputation of their ex.

Seriously what the hell did one of Canada's great authors do to you?


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 20 October 2008 09:10 PM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fidel:
Was it a false flag operation to swing the sympathy vote for an otherwise high calibre candidate?

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: Fidel ]


WHAT??? Seriously you think Carolyn cut breaklines for the headlines?

I love you Fidel you're three shades of crazy, paranoid and delusional. You tickle me in all the right places.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 20 October 2008 09:22 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially). Carolyn Bennett is also very personally popular and one of the most progressive Liberals. After seeing Kent lose so badly in '06, it's pretty clear St. Paul's has emerged into a very Liberal riding.
I don't recall seeing you in the campaign office this time out, either. Perhaps that was a factor?

More seriously, the campaign was run on a bit of a shoestring this time out. As Summerville was a high profile candidate, a lot of money was spent. Less than half that amount was spent on Anita Agrawal's campaign, recognizing that she's a young unknown who's just building recognition this time out. And she came to us at the last minute, as another person who had planned to run dropped out due to complications.

That said, Anita's far more likable than Summerville, and has much going for her. She's extremely well-spoken. She's been very active in the Council of Canadians, and in the local arts community. She's also an experienced business woman, very hands-on in her family's import business. I look forward to working with her again.


From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 21 October 2008 05:36 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by cornerstone:

WHAT??? Seriously you think Carolyn cut breaklines for the headlines?


Well, I've heard of that "sleazy sympathy harakiri" theory before, though I wouldn't subscribe to it--and if I did, I'd be much less likely to ascribe it to CB than to some I'm Always Right/Doug The Slug putz of a Liberal thug...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 21 October 2008 07:42 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
What's with the hate on for Atwood? Is there a book burning I don't know about. Has the central committee deemed her unrevolutionary and she must be purged???

She may be a good author - but she clearly knows ZILCH about politics. What can you say about someone who claims that he number one issue is stopping the SPP - and then says that people have to vote Liberal - even though it was the Liberals who created the SPP in the first place?


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 21 October 2008 09:07 AM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

She may be a good author - but she clearly knows ZILCH about politics. What can you say about someone who claims that he number one issue is stopping the SPP - and then says that people have to vote Liberal - even though it was the Liberals who created the SPP in the first place?


You have had a hate on for Atwood ever since she endorsed Adam Vaughan. Give it a rest.

Margaret is a fabulous author and a great critical thinker. To bad your skin is too thin when she criticises the NDP or any of your pet policies.

You want to know why the NDP is falling in Toronto? It's because of Dipper reactions like yours. Viscously attacking anybody of note who doesn't support your Orthodox political view.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
Bookish Agrarian
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 7538

posted 21 October 2008 09:12 AM      Profile for Bookish Agrarian   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Actually Atwoods last book was terrible.

A good author, or even a cogent thinker does not give one added understanding of political reality. The simple fact of the matter is that Atwoods analysis of the political landscape had the subtlty of a Harlequin romance.


From: Home of this year's IPM | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
robbie_dee
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 195

posted 21 October 2008 10:12 AM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by cornerstone:
You want to know why the NDP is falling in Toronto? It's because of Dipper reactions like yours. Viscously attacking anybody of note who doesn't support your Orthodox political view.

It's hilarious when people try to blame broad political trends such as a decline in NDP votes in Toronto on the behavior of a few jackasses posting on internet message boards. Message boards which are only even read by something like 0.00001% of the population at most. For me, Stockholm's posts have mostly just turned me off of Scandinavia.


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 21 October 2008 10:12 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I actually didn't even know that Margaret Atwood endorsed anyone in the municipal election.

I don't "hate" her. I'm sure she is probably a perfectly nice person who has written some good novels.

I just think that when it comes to politics she's as dumb as a post.

She should stick to pontificating on topics that she actually knows something about.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 21 October 2008 12:16 PM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Not what you said in August of 2006 Stock.

You surmised that Atwood was naive and played into Adam's hands. In addition you implied that Adam was a shill for Tony Ianno and that Tam Goossen was undermining Helene Kennedy

Long time to hold a grudge for old Margaret and anybody who dares disagree with your Orthodox view of the world.

This thread is about how the NDP is loosing support in Toronto. Pretty easy to figure out why from the tone of this thread. Who the hell wants to be a part of a party that eats its own and is dismissive of success. Check that, despises success.

I'm proud of Atwood's success and what she has done for canadian literature. She paved the way for the following generation of authors to be heard on a much larger stage. Yann Martel and others would not have had their opportunity if it wasn't for people like Margaret. We build on the successes of those who come before us.

Stock, your attacks on Atwood are petty and vindictive. To dismiss her because she is simply successful is asinine. As for your assertion that we don't "need" the Atwood's of the world then what the hell was all that electioneering around Canadian Culture?

Stock, you're coming of like Harper and his quips about artists being government subsidised whiners.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 21 October 2008 12:31 PM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by robbie_dee:

It's hilarious when people try to blame broad political trends such as a decline in NDP votes in Toronto on the behavior of a few jackasses posting on internet message boards. Message boards which are only even read by something like 0.00001% of the population at most. For me, Stockholm's posts have mostly just turned me off of Scandinavia.


How many people on this board worked on a campaign??? How many of them answered phones and knocked on doors??? A lot I'd bet.

Think of all of those points of contact with the public. This is not some random board without influence or meaning. If it is without meaning, as you claim Robbie, why is there that big bash at Steam Whistle on Thursday.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 21 October 2008 12:45 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Let's not go back to Vaughan/Kennedy/Goossen again...I don't think it had any significant impact on the election result in Trinity-Spadina.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 21 October 2008 12:46 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I admire Atwood's success as an author.

But, if she says that her NUMBER ONE concern is to stop the Security and Prosperity Perimeter (SPP) and then she thinks that the best way to do that is to vote for the party that introduced the SPP in the first place and remains committed to it - then my conclusion is that when it comes to politics she must be really, really, really STUPID.

All that being said, all's well that ends well. Olivia Chow was easily re-elected and obviously few, if any, people in Trinity-Spadina paid any attention to Margaret Atwood's desperate attempts to elect the no-name rightwing Liberal candidate running in the riding.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Left J.A.B.
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9046

posted 21 October 2008 12:46 PM      Profile for Left J.A.B.     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Which will be a very insular affair. This and every other website on the virtual planet does not speak to the average person.
From: 4th and Main | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
A political
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 10438

posted 21 October 2008 01:05 PM      Profile for A political     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Left Turn:
I think the msm fearmongered a lot of people in Toronto into voting Liberal rather than NDP, by runninng stories about whether the Conservatives could pick up any ridings in Toronto. There were stories about how the Conservatives were competitive in Don Valley West, and were making a major push to win this riding. There was even one evening where polster Nick Nanos mused on CPAC that his polling numbers for the greater Toronto area might allow the Conservatives to pick up ridings like Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I think you give way to much credit to the media, whether the Star or Nick Nano's musing over the possible CON pick-ups. Most voters don't even read papers let alone editorials and the editorial sections of newspapers. A whole bunch of people know going in who they will vote for and who they won't and the undecided distribute in almost the same percentages as those who have made up their minds. The NDP message doesn't resonate with 80% voters 80% of the time. Almost as many people who vote anybody but Tory vote anybody but NDP. Just like many NDPers vote anybody but Liberal. I think the nDP supporters on this board spend way to much time trying to figure out who spoiled their fortunes, instead of coming to grips with the fact that the message blame on business, the banks and the coporates doesn't work. Heck many voters in Toronto work for those business, banks or corportations!

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: A political ]


From: GTA | Registered: Sep 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 21 October 2008 01:11 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The NDP message doesn't resonate with 80% voters 80% of the time. Almost as many people who vote anybody but Tory vote anybody but NDP. Just like many NDPers vote anybody but Liberal. I think the nDP supporters on this board spend way to much time trying to figure out who spoiled their fortunes, instead of coming to grips with the fact that the message blame on business, the banks and the corporates doesn't work. Heck most in Toronto work for those business, banks or corportations!

...and the Liberal message doesn't resonate with 75% of the voters and the Green message doesn't resonate with 94% of the voters...

I think there is a legitimate question about why in this election, the NDP had great success in Hamilton, Windsor, northern Ontario and several other blue collar pockets in Ontario - but had a bit of a setback in Toronto that was totally counter to what happened everywhere else.

I think you make a valid point that Toronto is a largely white collar city (or if not white collar then aspiring to being white collar) and it may be that the class-based economic populist NDP message that worked so well in other places - doesn't resonate as well in Toronto.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9327

posted 21 October 2008 04:33 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
I think that there are a few things going on here.

One is that having the so-called green party at something 10% in Toronto reduces the available number of votes for all parties. The NDP vote may be stagnant - but so is the Liberal vote. In fact the Liberal vote took a pretty big hit in Trinity-Spadina and Danforth this time as well.

The one bright spot for the NDP in Toronto was York South-Weston where the vote went up a lot this time.

I think that more and more Toronto is seceding from the rest of Canada in terms of having its own unique voting pattern that is completely different from the rest of Ontario (let alone the rest of Canada).

For the NDP, I think that there are probably two factors that create challenges in Toronto:

1. You cannot underestimate the impact of having a shamelessly pro-Liberal partisan rag like the Toronto Star as the main daily paper - and when day after day after day, the main daily paper reads like it was written by Liberal Party spin-doctors - it has to have some impact.

2. This election more than ever, the NDP under Layton ran a very class-based economically populist campaign. I think that this was the right thing to do under the circumstances and it was instrumental in sweeping northern Ontario and cementing the NDP lock on Hamilton, Windsor etc... and gaining ground in poorer and more blue collar ridings across Canada. BUT, in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - bit you can almost hear all the snooty Margaret Atwood types turning up their noses in horror. Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

It would be nice to please everyone, but in the end, the NDP is first and foremost a party that defends the interest of working class people and if we have to choose between gearing our message towards winning the votes of working class people or winning back Margaret Atwood - I think the former has to take precedence.


I think that is quite correct. I also think that the media tends to overstate Toronto's importance in the grand scheme of things. Take a look at this piece from Alice Klein. The key regions that the Conservatives have historically relied on for their strength are Quebec and Western Canada, where the Liberals are not in contention anyways, and with the Liberals not winning any seats in and around the GTA, how did they "save" Canada? Look at the large orange patches around Northern Ontario. And if the Conservatives don't win in "cities," how does she explain Conservative successes in Saint John, Quebec, Ottawa, Kitchener, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver? Sure the GTA voted Liberal out of fear of Harper, but if you look at the political map in the rest of the country, you just don't see that fear of Harper that you do in Toronto, even though they don't agree with Harper any more. It's nice to win seats in Toronto, but how many seats are in the GTA? 40? The truth is you do not need to win in Toronto to form government, it's a lesson Harper has learned well, and that's why he ignores the city.


From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 21 October 2008 04:57 PM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Aristotleded24:

I think that is quite correct. I also think that the media tends to overstate Toronto's importance in the grand scheme of things. Take a look at this piece from Alice Klein. The key regions that the Conservatives have historically relied on for their strength are Quebec and Western Canada, where the Liberals are not in contention anyways, and with the Liberals not winning any seats in and around the GTA, how did they "save" Canada? Look at the large orange patches around Northern Ontario. And if the Conservatives don't win in "cities," how does she explain Conservative successes in Saint John, Quebec, Ottawa, Kitchener, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver? Sure the GTA voted Liberal out of fear of Harper, but if you look at the political map in the rest of the country, you just don't see that fear of Harper that you do in Toronto, even though they don't agree with Harper any more. It's nice to win seats in Toronto, but how many seats are in the GTA? 40? The truth is you do not need to win in Toronto to form government, it's a lesson Harper has learned well, and that's why he ignores the city.


There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

Toronto matters.

[ 21 October 2008: Message edited by: cornerstone ]


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
Aristotleded24
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9327

posted 21 October 2008 08:14 PM      Profile for Aristotleded24   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by cornerstone:
There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

Compared to 64 non-GTA seats in Ontario, where the NDP had its best ever showing seat wise, along with the 75 seats in Quebec and the large number of seats in the 4 Western provinces combined. Toronto matters, but not enough to make or break a national campaign.


From: Winnipeg | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 21 October 2008 11:03 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by cornerstone:
There are 42 seats in the GTA. Newfoundland has 7 PEI has 4 Nova Scotia has 11 New Brunswick has 10 and Manitoba has 14
So the GTA has almost as many seats as FOUR provinces.

Toronto matters.


So what you're telling us is that 5 million people have almost as many seats as 3.5 million people?

The amount that Toronto matters is rather heavily discounted, wouldn't you say?


From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 22 October 2008 03:41 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
There's a subtler side to "Toronto matters". Perhaps there was a deliberate downplaying of Conservative potential in the 416 (at least as far as the media goes--but even within "official" Conservative circles) knowing darn well that several seats were genuinely within reach...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 23 October 2008 06:22 AM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Lard Tunderin' Jeezus:
So what you're telling us is that 5 million people have almost as many seats as 3.5 million people?

The amount that Toronto matters is rather heavily discounted, wouldn't you say?


Yup it's called Special Clauses. PEI gets four seats when it should only get one for its Electoral Quotient. Manitoba gets 14 when it should only get ten.. etc.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
cornerstone
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15432

posted 23 October 2008 06:27 AM      Profile for cornerstone     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by adma:
There's a subtler side to "Toronto matters". Perhaps there was a deliberate downplaying of Conservative potential in the 416 (at least as far as the media goes--but even within "official" Conservative circles) knowing darn well that several seats were genuinely within reach...

yup DVW being one of them. If the Conservatives had run a "Red Tory" instead of the used car dealer they could have won.


From: in time and space | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1275

posted 23 October 2008 07:39 AM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by cornerstone:

yup DVW being one of them. If the Conservatives had run a "Red Tory" instead of the used car dealer they could have won.

Never going to happen. Not because a Red Tory isn't highly electable there, but because the Harpercrits would never tolerate anyone who might dare try to defend Toronto in cabinet.

From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 23 October 2008 08:49 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Then they might just not appoint that person to cabinet.

Then again, the Tories were not averse to running a red Tory like Pat Boyer in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 25 October 2008 07:05 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Upon reflection, two things here...

(1) All things considered, for all of Dion's woes, the Liberals had a solid Toronto campaign package in place, and didn't run into the kinds of Klander-klanger situations that plagued their '06 campaign. And of course, it helped that Toronto produced all those leadership candidates in the interim--and all the more so with Bob Rae now "officially" in the Liberal camp, which wasn't the case in '06 (didn't he contribute to the earlier Peggy Nash campaign?)

(2) For all of Layton's merits as a "Toronto" leader, he's been a Potemkin front for a nagging lack of overall 416 infrastructure; and the fact that Davenport and Parkdale-High Park are more competitive than they've ever been isn't enough--by and large, the NDP still feels like a more haphazard, marginal, erratic, depleted force than it was a generation ago. I remember as recently as the Broadbent era that the party carried a lawn-sign "respectability" even in obvious also-ran lost causes a la Etobicoke Centre--those days are long gone; or else, attempts to rekindle it can seem like overzealous astroturfing, or too much of that energy's been coopted by the Greens, etc.

When it comes to a potential Toronto strategy, something I'm keeping in mind is Michael Prue's ability to stay buoyant in the provincial Beaches-East York while Maria Minna inexplicably holds on tight federally--indeed, thanks to his past East York mayoralty, Prue does best in the Minna-friendly north. In fact, Prue is a throwback to the long lost days when New Democrats were a sane, viable option on municipal councils in "the boroughs"--I kinda wonder whether a hypothetical federal goal for a 416 breakthrough might be the "Prue Democrats", the local version of the middle-class, normalizing demos which have kept Hamilton's seats in the NDP fold...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3276

posted 25 October 2008 07:33 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by A political:
the message blame on business, the banks and the corporates doesn't work. Heck many voters in Toronto work for those business, banks or corporations!

I wonder if there's something to this.
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
in Toronto you have a population of largely white collar wannabes who just don't relate to that kind of messaging as well. The NDP base in Toronto such that it exists includes a lot of "creative class" professionals and teachers and nurses etc... and a lot of glitterati who like the NDP to be some esoteric pseudo-Green Party. When Jack Layton talks about "the kitchen table, not the boardroom table" - it is a great success in St. John's, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Thompson and Windsor - but . . . Incomes in Toronto tend to be a lot higher than the national average too.

Teachers and nurses are found everywhere in the same proportions.

Toronto has a concentration of civil servants, doctors, lawyers, other specialized professionals associated with head-office activites, as well as lower-paid office assistants (but even law office assistants in Toronto are paid much more than elsewhere in Ontario).

But on the other hand, the larger numbers of such people can engender more class solidarity. If Eaton's workers were going to unionize anywhere, it would have been in Toronto -- which it almost was. Are any bank branches in Toronto unionized yet? Or have too many of the likely union members been replaced by ATMs?


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 25 October 2008 07:43 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wilf Day:
[QB]
Teachers and nurses are found everywhere in the same proportions.

Toronto has a concentration of civil servants, doctors, lawyers, other specialized professionals associated with head-office activites, as well as lower-paid office assistants (but even law office assistants in Toronto are paid much more than elsewhere in Ontario).


...as well as academics, researchers, people in cultural industries, etc. This is the "creative class" the NDP gets a lot of its support from. The doctors, lawyers and various professionals in business that are overrepresented in Toronto I would think mostly support the Liberals.

The progressive middle classes are heavily concentrated in the Old City of Toronto. The more conservative professionals are more dispersed across the more affluent areas of the GTA.

[ 25 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 25 October 2008 09:31 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Speaking of lawns...

quote:
IF YOU want to know about your neighbour's politics, just peek over the fence at his front yard. According to York sociologist Allan Greenbaum, your lawn clearly states whether you're left-leaning, far right or somewhere in between.

"If you were going to guess whether someone is pro-choice or pro-life, you could probably predict it on the basis of their lawn," says Greenbaum who's just finished a 600-page PhD thesis called The Lawn as a Site for Environmental Conflict. He based his study on a survey of homeowners in the downtown Toronto neighbourhood known as Seaton Village in the west Annex.

The guy out with manicure scissors clipping the edges of his flower beds? He probably believes in hard work, responsibility, getting the job done and supports bylaws that limit the length of your grass. The woman with the wild flowers and herbs and an au naturale approach to Mother Nature? She's likely a left-leaning liberal, perhaps an artist or writer who believes neat lawns are boring and repressive.



From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174

posted 26 October 2008 04:06 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Leave aside Stock's choice of label and there is more of a certain kind of voter in the cores of Canda's 3 big cities.

And it is not entirely a class or demographic difference- although the higher concentration of certain kinds of occupations is part of it. Some of it also is the difference in values od people who live in big city cores.

So as Stock said, while the proportion of big city votes votes going to the Greens may not be high... that does have an effect.

While there have been mentions in this thread to the Liberals 'Toronto strategy'- I think that has been only to the explicit / 'formal' and policy/program side.

The whole creative side to Liberal positioning for the last 2 years- even before Dion became leader- has been with very few exceptions [and all of them fitful] as if the next campaign was about big city cores and competition with the NDP.

If they are going to put all their eggs in that basket, it is going to have an effect. So they did pretty well in Toronto and Montreal- while watching the house burn down in the rest of the country.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174

posted 26 October 2008 04:10 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Just a note on the good old days when the NDP ran a strong lawn sign presence everywhere in Toronto.

Well them days are gone everywhere- not just in Toronto. Getting sign locations and getting the signs there takes lots of volunteers. It's still a high impact thing to do and you do as much as you can, but there are a lot fewer volunteers.

Campaigning has adjusted, and the NDP vote share grows in lots of places where the sign campaign is shrinking.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 26 October 2008 06:12 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
According to the City of Toronto ward profiles, the wards with the highest % in art and culture occupations are:

1. Ward 20 Trinity-Spadina, 12.3%
2. Ward 19 Trinity-Spadina, 11.7%
3. Ward 27 Toronto-Rosedale, 10.3%
4. Ward 32 Beaches-East York, 10.0%
5. Ward 30 Toronto-Danforth, 9.8%
(compared to 4.9% in the City)

For social science, education and government:

1. Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence, 15.1%
2. Ward 27 Toronto-Rosedale, 14.8%
3. Ward 21 St. Paul's, 14.5%
4. Ward 22, St. Paul's, 14.3%
5. Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina, 13.9%
(compared to 8.3% in the city)

And for management:

1. Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence, 22.5%
2. Ward 22 St. Paul's, 21.0%
3. Ward 25 Don Valley West, 20.5%
4. Ward 23 Willowdale, 18.0%
5. Ward 4 Etobicoke, 15.8%
(compared to 11.8%)

The art and culture category is very concentrated in the inner core of Toronto. The category of social science, education and government is broader - including lawyers, social workers, teachers, academics, researchers and civil servants - is still concentrated in the core, though somewhat less so. Management occupations have a much greater concentration in affluent suburban areas.

[ 26 October 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
lombardimax@hotmail.com
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6295

posted 26 October 2008 07:14 PM      Profile for lombardimax@hotmail.com     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Outside of the 17 seats that the NDP won in Ontario, the next best ten ridings paint an interesting picture of where our future growth may come from.

Of the 10, the four ridings in our "strongholds" of inner Toronto and the North -- they all lost support while the other 6 -- in the Southern Ontario 'rust belt' -- all grew from the last election.


Next 10 best pop. vote -- sorted by most improved to least

2008 2006 change %
York-South-Weston 28.0 21.3 +31%
Essex 26.6 22.7 +17%
Cambridge 19.6 17.0 +15%
Sarnia-Lambton 21.9 20.0 +10%
Oshawa 34.8 33.5 +4%
Elgin-Middlesex-London 19.2 19.2 0%
Davenport 31.3 32.6 -4%
Beaches-East York 32.2 35.0 -8%
Parkdale-High Park 36.0 40.4 -11%
Kenora 23.2 30.0 -23%


From: Cambridge, Ontario | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
BetterRed
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11865

posted 26 October 2008 08:12 PM      Profile for BetterRed     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
That chart paints an revealing picture of NDP support.
No need to give up on Toronto still - theres potential left around the city.
If it helps I could point out that NDP did better North of the 401, where it was always invisible.

And you were right only about 3 Toronto ridings - the 4th one, YSW had improved in its showing.

quote:
York-South-Weston 28.0 21.3 +31%

From: They change the course of history, everyday ppl like you and me | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 27 October 2008 05:39 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The YSW result probably has a little to do with the brief provincial Paul Ferreira interlude "loosening up" support, though--not that that's bad or anything...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
lombardimax@hotmail.com
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6295

posted 27 October 2008 06:52 PM      Profile for lombardimax@hotmail.com     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
And you were right only about 3 Toronto ridings - the 4th one, YSW had improved in its showing.

Actually, YSW is on the 401 and only became part of Toronto in the latest amalgamation and is not what one would call 'inner city' like Toronto-Danforth or Beaches-East York. YSW even has a significant manufacturing sector.


From: Cambridge, Ontario | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sinister
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9869

posted 28 October 2008 07:11 PM      Profile for Sinister     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by St. Paul's Progressive:
While the NDP has never been much of a factor in my riding, their vote was significantly lower this time. The NDP candidate this time was not of the calibre of Paul Summerville, Norman Tobias or Julian Heller (who ran provincially).

[ 20 October 2008: Message edited by: St. Paul's Progressive ]


Totally agree. Anita Agrawal would like to think that she is of a higher calibre. She sought the federal NDP nomination for Toronto Centre in 2006 against anti-poverty activist Michael Shapcott.
During the last provincial election, she sought the nomination in three ridings, losing the nomination in Toronto Centre and Don Valley West, before becoming a last minute candidate for Etobicoke Centre. She then originally sought the nomination for Davenport against Peter Ferreira, before being talked out of it by people in the NDP.

This was the biggest vote decrease for the NDP in Toronto. Talk about two steps forward, one step back. I really hope our candidate search committee can come up with someone better next time.

[ 28 October 2008: Message edited by: Sinister ]


From: messy | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 28 October 2008 07:35 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Sinister:
[She sought the federal NDP nomination for Toronto Centre in 2006 against anti-poverty activist Michael Shapcott.

Not true. Shapcott was challenged by Chris Moise and Nancy Martin.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 29 October 2008 05:40 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Lost the provincial nomination for Don Valley West? I thought the guy who ran was a nominal loser who was a debate no-show and finished fourth behind the Greens with the second worst party result in the province...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
1948
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 15673

posted 29 October 2008 01:00 PM      Profile for 1948   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by adma:
When it comes to a potential Toronto strategy, something I'm keeping in mind is Michael Prue's ability to stay buoyant in the provincial Beaches-East York while Maria Minna inexplicably holds on tight federally--indeed, thanks to his past East York mayoralty, Prue does best in the Minna-friendly north. In fact, Prue is a throwback to the long lost days when New Democrats were a sane, viable option on municipal councils in "the boroughs"--I kinda wonder whether a hypothetical federal goal for a 416 breakthrough might be the "Prue Democrats", the local version of the middle-class, normalizing demos which have kept Hamilton's seats in the NDP fold...
I have a theory, which would be fun to get deconstructed/attacked/validated, that is a riff on this.

There used to be a lot of New Democrats in the "Prue mold" - not so much "middle-class" but just practical "meat and potatoes" politicians who appealed to the vast chunks of "uncool" Toronto. In the West End, in particular, many of these NDP politicians were Italian. This came to a crescendo in 1990 when we elected tons of inner-suburban New Dems on a populist platform of cutting auto insurance rates and property taxes: Anthony Perruzza, Tony Rizzo, David Warner, Ed Philip, Tony Silipo even (gulp) George Mammolitti. Five years later these New Democrats returned to voters without having delivered on their economic populist proposals. The Toronto NDP survived in places where the Rae government's socially progressive accimplishments (pay equity, employment equity) resonated but in the rest of the City we were wiped out.

That had a few effects:
- The NDP in Toronto was increasingly in a rearguard action - fighting to defend what we had. This meant resources and energy went into the "downtown" ridings we held and the rest of the City was left to it's own devices. With David
Miller's defeat in York South Weston that left us with: Trinity Spadina, Beaches Woodine, Riverdale, Fort York and Dovercourt.

- The political culture in these "downtown" ridings was different from the rest of the City. So, in addition to getting more resources, the ideological space of the Toronto NDP was increasingly taken up by "downtown" thinking. In other words, less populist, less bread and butter, more "academic".

- This was exacerbated by the absence of voices of Caucus who could speak for, understand, advocate and speak to voters in East York, Etobicoke, York, etc.

- The problem exacerbated itself with each election as we saw ourselves reduced to fewer ridings that took more and more resources to hold.

As a result of all this, and other problems, in vast chunks of Toronto there is no riding association to speak of and while people would consider voting NDP there is either no viable candidate or no viable organization backing that candidate. As a result of that the "centre" is not hearing about the issues that will move these voters towards the NDP. The cycle continues.

Sorry to end on a cynical note, I will return.

ETA: I think I'll make a "positive post" later but rather then taint it I'll add another observation here.

The "NDP Caucus" at City Hall once worked closely with other New Democrats and had representation in areas when New Dems were losing provincially and federally. This is still true today with New Dems like Anthony Perruzza, Maria Augimeri, Howard Moscoe and to some extent Adam Giambrone.

That relationship started fraying during when Rae government at Queen's Park started to tank in popularity. NDP Councillors running for re-election distanced themselves from the party - since it was such an anchor. The turmoil of the Harris years didn't help much. People were polarized as pro or anti Harris and, particularly in light of the unpopularity of the NDP, people switched to the Liberals. In 1999 even Jack Layton and Olivia Chow endorsed an Indpendent over the NDP candidate.

Time eventually started to wash away the bitter memories of the Rae years, to the extent that an admitted New Democrat was actually elected Mayor (albeit as part of an explicitly non-NDP coalition).

This has led to a new problem: the "NDP Caucus" at City Hall is not particularly linked to the NDP. They are, in fact, a "David Miller" Caucus that has no particular loyalty or shared strategic goals with any wing of the NDP. Some councillors help their local New Democrats but, as a block, the team at City Hall doesn't work with the NDP federally or provincially and, in fact, seems to be more interested in preserving Liberal hegemony. Hence, Miller's strategic refusal to criticize McGuinty during the last provincial campaign and to, in fact, relieve pressure on the province by implementing municipal tax hikes. Hence, Miller's praise for Dion's anemic infrastructure plan which was revealed in a leaked document to be "exactly the same" as the Harper plan that Miller criticized.

[ 30 October 2008: Message edited by: 1948 ]


From: Ontario | Registered: Oct 2008  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 29 October 2008 06:44 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Sinister:
[QB]This was the biggest vote decrease for the NDP in Toronto. Talk about two steps forward, one step back. I really hope our candidate search committee can come up with someone better next time.

Though aside from candidate calibre, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the fallen share was the result of a soft-left sympathy vote for Carolyn Bennett, after the brake-line-cutting and vandalism incidents...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 01 November 2008 12:30 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by 1948:
Five years later these New Democrats returned to voters without having delivered on their economic populist proposals. The Toronto NDP survived in places where the Rae government's socially progressive accimplishments (pay equity, employment equity) resonated but in the rest of the City we were wiped out.

That had a few effects:
- The NDP in Toronto was increasingly in a rearguard action - fighting to defend what we had. This meant resources and energy went into the "downtown" ridings we held and the rest of the City was left to it's own devices. With David
Miller's defeat in York South Weston that left us with: Trinity Spadina, Beaches Woodine, Riverdale, Fort York and Dovercourt.

- The political culture in these "downtown" ridings was different from the rest of the City. So, in addition to getting more resources, the ideological space of the Toronto NDP was increasingly taken up by "downtown" thinking. In other words, less populist, less bread and butter, more "academic".

- This was exacerbated by the absence of voices of Caucus who could speak for, understand, advocate and speak to voters in East York, Etobicoke, York, etc.


I think this is a very good analysis. The core of NDP support in Toronto is pretty much this "new class" or "creative class" or "progressive middle class" or whatever one wants to call it and they're just not a very big group in terms of voters and are likely to eschew class-based themes. And Rae's patrician style went over a lot better in places like the Annex and the Beaches than it does in say, Scarborough. By 1999 the ONDP had been reduced to the "creative class" strongholds of Beaches-East York, Danforth and Trinity-Spadina (the two very working class ridings that stuck with the NDP in '95 - Davenport/Dovercourt and York South(-Weston) went massively Liberal in 1999 and 2003 (though Paul Ferreira demonstrated that an economic populist campaign resonated very well in YS-W.)

The occupational categories used by StatsCan are often quite broad - and I'm certain Ward 16's "social science, education, govt." group is much more heavily weighted towards white-shoe law firm partners than the inner city ridings. Attempts of the NDP to appeal to the professional classes are quite limited as a group that's probably no more than 5% of the population of Toronto - and very concentrated.

[ 01 November 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged

All times are Pacific Time  

Post New Topic  Post A Reply Close Topic    Move Topic    Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
Hop To:

Contact Us | rabble.ca | Policy Statement

Copyright 2001-2008 rabble.ca