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» babble   » from far and wide   » bc, alberta, saskatchewan   » Surrey Panorama Ridge By-Election

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Author Topic: Surrey Panorama Ridge By-Election
Centrist
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posted 06 July 2004 02:37 AM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I don't know and haven't checked what the legal time limits are for calling this by-election.

That being said, I thought that I would provide some thoughts from a historical perspective.

The May, 1981 by-election was the first which ever crossed my radar screen when Rafe Mair had earlier resigned his Kamloops seat, which was considered a swing riding to that time, always electing a government MLA.

At that time, Dave Barrett was attempting to broaden the NDP's appeal and a centrist-type, Howard Dack, then Kamloops city councillor, was the nominated candidate.

Claude Richmond (current House Speaker BTW) was nominated by the Socreds.

Then Vancouver Sun political columnist Marjorie Nichols parlayed an internal opinion poll (which party?) which showed the NDP 20 points in the lead and stated that the NDP could run a broom and get elected in the riding.

Before the May 24th long weekend, when the vote was held, Claude Richmond, Socred, surprisingly took the seat.

At that time, the Socred government was vilified for the tax fee increases and other matters since the 1979 provincial election.

Thereafter, I also recall 6 by-elections, the "6- pack" as Mike Harcourt so proclaimed in terms of by-election victories by the NDP after Bill Vander Zalm took over the Socreds helm during the period between 1986 through to 1991.

At that time, Vander Zalm seemed to be a parochial ruler, so to speak, who took the Socreds into so-con territory and was involved in scandals of his own making - Fantasy Gardens, breach of trust etc.

Many members of his own cabinet resigned and IIRC some even moved to the opposition benches.

Former Socred ridings like Oak Bay - Gorden Head fell to the NDP as moderate Socreds stayed home in droves and ultimately switched to Gordon Wilson's Libs in 1991.

In the present circumstances, of the 7 Surrey provincial ridings, Surrey Panorama Ridge could be considered the Surrey swing riding.

The 1996 results of NDP - 47, Lib 40.3 should attest to this.

From an analytical perspective, the provincial Libs do not carry the same stigma as the Vander Zalm Socreds of the late 1980's.

In this instance they may have more in common with Bennett's Socreds during the peak of the housing boom in May, 1981 although that does not mean the Libs will win the seat.

If and when the by-election is called the likely more motivated voters of the NDP will elect the eventual winner.

I've seen the internal opinion poll released by the NDP for the riding, but based upon previous experience with such polls from all parties, I would prefer to see an independent poll such as those commissioned by Compas during the recent federal election.

Thoughts anyone?

[ 06 July 2004: Message edited by: Centrist ]


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
captain_easychord
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posted 06 July 2004 04:23 AM      Profile for captain_easychord     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It's not a strong area, and I would have been very tentative a montha ago, regarding chances. Given Nancy Clegg's strong showing in Newton-North Delta, though, I think this seat is definitely winnable. It's a must if the NDP are to form gov't again before 2009.

The decision not to run Carole James was smart.

A note, though; there may not be a by-election, and I expect there won't be unless the Libs can guarantee a win and the momentum that would ensue. There's less than a year left to go, and the seat only officially opened up in May, iirc, giving Campbell an easy chance to avoid a black eye.


From: The West Beyond the West | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 06 July 2004 04:59 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
How long are they can they leave it vacant legally?
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
captain_easychord
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posted 06 July 2004 05:13 AM      Profile for captain_easychord     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It's something stupid like what Martin used for Ottawa-Centre federally. They've got 6 months to set a by election date, which can be up to 4 months away, but if that date is within 6 months of a general election, it's called off. I may be wrong, but I do believe that the technical wording would allow the seat to stay vacant until the election. The Fixed Date election changes things, obviously, as we know how long a seat will remain vacant for.
From: The West Beyond the West | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 07 July 2004 02:37 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
I may be wrong, but I do believe that the technical wording would allow the seat to stay vacant until the election. The Fixed Date election changes things, obviously, as we know how long a seat will remain vacant for.

Legally, they might be able to leave it vacant; politically, they couldn't get away with it. Cheema jumped to federal politics (and lost badly for the Grits), so the vacancy is entirely voluntary and there is no reason for the riding residents to go without representation for a full year. Rumour has it that Surrey mayor Doug McCallum (having just delivered RAV for Gordo in his role as Translink chair) will run for the BC Libs and that the by-election will be called in mid-August for an E-day in the 2nd or 3rd week of September. Go NDP go!!!


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Dagmar
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posted 22 July 2004 03:58 AM      Profile for Dagmar   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Any updates on this...? Have the Liberals found a sucker... or rather... candidate?
From: Santa looks a lot like Daggy! | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 24 July 2004 04:16 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The arrogant and smarmy Kevin Falcon was on TV the other night talking about the by-election, he seemed confident the BC Libs would run a good candidate but didn't name any names. He hinted the by-election would come in the early fall. This is off-topic, but I REALLY hate Falcon and look forward to his personal defeat as well as his gov't on May 17, 2005 (though it would be sweet revenge to see him ride the backbench as an opposition MP)
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged

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