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» babble   » from far and wide   » bc, alberta, saskatchewan   » Rate the Liberal chances of winning seats in Alberta.

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Author Topic: Rate the Liberal chances of winning seats in Alberta.
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 23 June 2004 04:43 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Calgary.
1. Best shot - Calgary West (Justin Thompson). Still a real long shot, however.

2. Calgary East - James Maxim. Very much a long shot

3. Calgary South Centre - Julia Turnbull. Highly unlikely, unless the NDP support melts down and turnout is low.

The others - a snowball in hell.

Edmonton

1. Edmonton Centre - McLellan has a good shot at survival.

2. Edmonton Beaumont - 50/50 Kilgour survives.

3. Edmonton East - John Bethel. A long shot.

4. Edmonton Strahcona - Debby Carlson. A real long shot.

The rest - not going to happen.

Rural Alberta.

1. Athabasca - Doug Faulkner. A real long shot. However, the CPC candidate has a very shady past, so it is probably their best shot in Northern Alberta.

2. Lethbridge - Ken Nicol. I won't completely write him off, but it's highly, highly unlikely.

The rest - er, no.


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
HeywoodFloyd
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posted 23 June 2004 05:09 PM      Profile for HeywoodFloyd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'd say Maxim has the best chance of the Calgary Libs. No-one else has a chance, period.

In Edmonton, I'd say that Kilgor is on slightly firmer ground than McLellan. McLellan is gone on Monday.


From: Edmonton: This place sucks | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Polunatic
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posted 23 June 2004 05:12 PM      Profile for Polunatic   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Birds of a feather...?
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Stockholm
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posted 23 June 2004 05:28 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
One thing that is often being overlooked in the analysis of the polls is how over and over again, Liberal (and NDP) support in Alberta is a few points higher than in 2000 and Conservative support is lower.

I think the Liberals will win three (maybe pick up Edmonton East) and who knows what will happen in Edmonton-Strathcona.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 23 June 2004 05:35 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by HeywoodFloyd:
I'd say Maxim has the best chance of the Calgary Libs. No-one else has a chance, period.

In Edmonton, I'd say that Kilgor is on slightly firmer ground than McLellan. McLellan is gone on Monday.


Do you think Maxim has much of a shot, though? He's relying on getting people who didn't vote last time to vote, and it's a near-impossibility to get non-voters into the booth. He has been working the riding for months, though.

[ 23 June 2004: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


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HeywoodFloyd
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posted 23 June 2004 05:59 PM      Profile for HeywoodFloyd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I don't think Maxim will win but I believe his traction on e-day will be higher than expected.
From: Edmonton: This place sucks | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
beverly
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posted 23 June 2004 07:05 PM      Profile for beverly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
BLAHHHHHHH HAHHAHHHAH insert HYSTERICAL LAUGHTER

I'm sorry. But I don't think they have a chance in hell. Yes, the ones you mentioned My Lord are the most probable but even those are long shots.

McLellan would have had a better chance if Martin hadn't paid her a little visit.

[ 23 June 2004: Message edited by: kuba ]


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Vansterdam Kid
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posted 26 June 2004 05:04 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think re: the polls those numbers could mean that McLellan will survive -- probably Kilgour too although he may be "traded" for Doug Faulkner for reasons previously stated and areas like Fort McMurray has a lot of people from out of province so they may not be as inclined to vote Conservative. I think it will be interesting to watch Calgary West -- it would be great if Anders lost. Frankly the Conservatives should have got rid of him a long time ago -- hopefully conservatives in that riding will do so though. Although I think Anders will probably win the riding again -- unfortunately.
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beverly
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posted 26 June 2004 07:33 PM      Profile for beverly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Anders The mere mention of his name just makes my skin crawl .... What a blight. Almost as distatsteful as Jason Kenny.

[ 26 June 2004: Message edited by: kuba ]


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 26 June 2004 08:34 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
For me, Anders is worse than Kenney, but that's like wondering if a fist in the face is worse than a boot in the balls. Both are unappealing.

[ 26 June 2004: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 26 June 2004 09:03 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Stockholm, the final polls have shown a massive pickup for the Conservatives. Probably in part due to Mr. Martin's "attack" on Ralph Klein, and probably also because Conservatives likely didn't pay much attention until the end of the campaign.
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'lance
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posted 26 June 2004 09:33 PM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
For me, Anders is worse than Kenney, but that's like wondering if a fist in the face is worse than a boot in the balls.

For me Anders is worse than Kenney only because I've been present when Anders made a (mercifully short) speech. I had much the same visceral reaction as kuba.


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Iago
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posted 28 June 2004 12:46 PM      Profile for Iago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Unfortunately, ideology often trumps common sense. Having lived in Rob Anders riding, I recognize the complete ineffectiveness of his representation. But so many will vote for the party without considering their local MP. Anyone would be better for the riding than Anders, but none are likely to beat him.

My projection would be for the Liberals to win only one seat in Alberta this time around, but see their percent of popular vote increase fairly significantly.


From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Northern54
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posted 28 June 2004 03:24 PM      Profile for Northern54     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I expect the Conservatives to win all the ridings in Alberta. I wish I could say otherwise but an Alberta national leader running for the Conservative party leads me to that conclusion. While I don't think Harper was a stellar performer in this election, he certainly did better than Stockwell Day last time.

I sometimes wish I had sent money to help Stockwell in his leadership campaign.


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Stockholm
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posted 28 June 2004 03:30 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
An Albertan named Preston Manning led the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997 - that didn't stop the Liberals from winning 4 seats in Edmonton in '93 and 2 seats in '97.

There is a lot of anti-Klein and anti-Conservative sentiment in Edmonton so don't be surprised if a couple of non-Conservatives win there.


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 28 June 2004 03:34 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Treat Edmonton as a different case from the rest of Alberta. It's fertile ground for more reasonable ideas.
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beverly
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posted 28 June 2004 03:38 PM      Profile for beverly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
I sometimes wish I had sent money to help Stockwell in his leadership campaign.

I would send Stockwell Day money if he promised to use it for educational purposes.

From: In my Apartment!!!! | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Northern54
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posted 28 June 2004 06:42 PM      Profile for Northern54     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
True, Stockholm... I pray that you are right...
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Adam T
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posted 29 June 2004 04:32 AM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I was surprised with the results in Edmonton, outside of the two (narrowly) re-elected Liberals, the Conservatives won almost all the other city ridings by pretty large to very large margins. It seems that, sadly, even Edmonton has largely fallen prey to the cult of Ralph.

[ 29 June 2004: Message edited by: Adam T ]


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Gir Draxon
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posted 29 June 2004 04:47 AM      Profile for Gir Draxon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Adam T:
I was surprised with the results in Edmonton, outside of the two (narrowly) re-elected Liberals, the Conservatives won almost all the other city ridings by pretty large to very large margins. It seems that, sadly, even Edmonton has largely fallen prey to the cult of Ralph.

[ 29 June 2004: Message edited by: Adam T ]


Excuse me, but Ralph Klein was a major factor in the Conservatives not getting more seats than the Liberals. Ralph's hidden agenda was to keep the Liberals in power. It makes sense, as he needs a leg to stand on, and all he has is fed-bashing. He could not do that to Harper, so he opened his big yap to give Martin an edge to scare Ontarians into voting Liberal. It's for his own selfish benefit.

Down with Klein this fall!


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 29 June 2004 10:17 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Ralph doesn't really belong to any political stream other than his own. He's obviously of the right, but will happily screw over anyone to achieve his ends. He's basically the Godfather of Alberta.
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beverly
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posted 29 June 2004 11:52 AM      Profile for beverly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I can't believe MacCellan won!!!!!
From: In my Apartment!!!! | Registered: Feb 2004  |  IP: Logged
Iago
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posted 29 June 2004 01:06 PM      Profile for Iago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Gir Draxon:

Excuse me, but Ralph Klein was a major factor in the Conservatives not getting more seats than the Liberals. Ralph's hidden agenda was to keep the Liberals in power. It makes sense, as he needs a leg to stand on, and all he has is fed-bashing. He could not do that to Harper, so he opened his big yap to give Martin an edge to scare Ontarians into voting Liberal. It's for his own selfish benefit.

Down with Klein this fall!


Completely agree with you. Ralph would be an a difficult situation if the Conservatives had won. Who would he have to blame for the problems in healthcare and education, if not the feds? He's savvy, and knew exactly what he was doing, I think.

Hopefully, Albertans will know what they are doing next election and get rid of him, but I'm certain that won't happen.


From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
beverly
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posted 29 June 2004 01:08 PM      Profile for beverly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Hopefully, Albertans will know what they are doing next election and get rid of him, but I'm certain that won't happen.

I've heard this morning the scream of Ralph needs to go. But, who would the alternative be - even worse?? If that's possible????


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Adam T
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posted 29 June 2004 04:24 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Excuse me, but Ralph Klein was a major factor in the Conservatives not getting more seats than the Liberals. Ralph's hidden agenda was to keep the Liberals in power. It makes sense, as he needs a leg to stand on, and all he has is fed-bashing. He could not do that to Harper, so he opened his big yap to give Martin an edge to scare Ontarians into voting Liberal. It's for his own selfish benefit.


Gir, you are talking about Canada as a whole, and I agree with you. I was talking just about Edmonton.

Given the huge wins many Conservatives received even in Edmonton, it seems that many people in Alberta took Martin's attack on Klein's position on health care as a personal attack on Klein, which was then further seen as a personal attack on Alberta.

It strikes me as pretty odd. It seems like if Mr. Klein decided to get rid of medicare entirely many people in Alberta would say "well, if Ralph says it's a good idea, it must be a good idea."


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HeywoodFloyd
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posted 29 June 2004 04:33 PM      Profile for HeywoodFloyd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I've been campaigning on various conservative races over the last year and when the conversation turned to Ralph, the quiet consensus was that maybe it's time for him to go. After the healthcare "gaffe", the quiet consensus turned into a loud & open conversation, with few dissenters.

The problem is that he is the leader until the next convention, which is a few years away. Jim Dinning is the heir apparent but he won't move against Ralph. He'll wait for his turn.

Apparently an Alberta PC just crossed the floor to Thorstein's Alberta Alliance. I don't know who it is yet. Thorstein isn't ready to be the premier so I don't know how much real good it will do.

In conversations with the next generation of Alberta conservatives, there is complete agreement that Klein has passed the best-by date and needs to go.

Who do we choose as a replacement?


From: Edmonton: This place sucks | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Gir Draxon
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posted 29 June 2004 04:35 PM      Profile for Gir Draxon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by HeywoodFloyd:
Who do we choose as a replacement?

Draft Preston Manning.


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HeywoodFloyd
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posted 29 June 2004 04:36 PM      Profile for HeywoodFloyd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are you serious?
From: Edmonton: This place sucks | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
'lance
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posted 29 June 2004 04:38 PM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Apparently an Alberta PC just crossed the floor to Thorstein's Alberta Alliance.

How can he cross the floor when the Alberta Alliance hasn't any MLAs? Will he simply announce that he's the first?

quote:
Who do we choose as a replacement?

Why you of course, Heywood!


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 29 June 2004 04:39 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Gary Masyk is your deserter. No surprise there.
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HellofaSandwich
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posted 29 June 2004 11:43 PM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
That's awesome. I hope the Alberta Alliance comes on strong in the next election and splits the conservative vote as best they can.
From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
guy cybershy
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posted 29 June 2004 11:59 PM      Profile for guy cybershy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It would hardly matter as the libs and NDP here are in complete dissaray. You have to remember this is not a normal province in any sense of the word.
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guy cybershy
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posted 30 June 2004 12:05 AM      Profile for guy cybershy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Who is the Liberal leader anyway, I lost track when Nicol stepped down to run federally. Of course, he got his ass kicked.
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HellofaSandwich
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posted 30 June 2004 12:06 AM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Dude, I live here. Of course I know that. However, some vote splitting on the right, in Edmonton at least, could have delivered quite a few seats to the Liberals. Bob Maskell and Drew Hutton won by slim margins, for example.

Of course, it's probably a pipe dream to think that the AA would be much of a factor in that regard. But I can always dream.


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HellofaSandwich
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posted 30 June 2004 12:07 AM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Kevin Taft is the new leader. He's a good man.

http://www.liberalopposition.com


From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
guy cybershy
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posted 30 June 2004 12:08 AM      Profile for guy cybershy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yes, I suppose thats all you can do in this province sometimes, I've always thought Klein was long overdue for a fatal heart attack since he is an overweight alcoholic who still smokes. They'd probabably replace him with someone even worse.
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HellofaSandwich
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posted 30 June 2004 12:16 AM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yeah, it always terrifies me when I hear the Edmonton Sun paint Klein as a politician on a "march towards liberalism". Jeez, it freaks the hell out of me to think what kind of politician those pundits really want.
From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
guy cybershy
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posted 30 June 2004 12:51 AM      Profile for guy cybershy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The newspapers in Edmonton sound as bad as Calgary. The herald used to try to be even handed, now I think they're even worse that the Sun. They made Klein what he is, they're really a disgrace to the profession of journalism. But now their boy has really screwed up and even they can't make excuses for him.
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HellofaSandwich
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posted 30 June 2004 12:13 PM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, the Sun is terrible, but the Journal is relatively fair. On the op-ed pages, there's one frothing-at-the-mouth conservative, Lorne Gunter, who alternates with Graham Thompson, who really gives insider information from the Legislature, occasionally spiced with what appears to be disgust with Klein. Then there are a bunch of real pro-education, moderate voices in the paper such as Todd Babiak, Paula Simmons and Scott McKeen, but their commentaries are strictly relegated to the city and culture sections.

Does Calgary have anything that ISN'T right-wing propaganda?


From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 30 June 2004 12:49 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think we've been reduced to FFWD, sadly.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
HeywoodFloyd
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posted 30 June 2004 01:09 PM      Profile for HeywoodFloyd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
FFWD pushed Turnbull over Purdy.
From: Edmonton: This place sucks | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 30 June 2004 01:12 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Damn! Centrist propaganda!

[ 30 June 2004: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Hailey
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posted 10 July 2004 01:12 AM      Profile for Hailey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I am certain Mr. Norris will be the replacement for Mr. Klein.
From: candyland | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
HellofaSandwich
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posted 10 July 2004 02:35 AM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yuck.

At least his seat will be vulnerable, though.


From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged

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