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Author Topic: New BC Poll Results
Centrist
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posted 21 June 2004 04:22 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Mustel Group just released a BC poll with a 721 sample size and a 3.6% margin of error.

BC:

Con: 36
NDP: 28
Lib: 26
Green: 7
Other: 3

City of Vancouver:

Con: 18
NDP: 37
Lib: 39
Green: 6
Other: 0

GVRD:

Con: 43
NDP: 23
Lib: 25
Green: 5
Other: 4

Other BC:

Con: 37
NDP: 29
Lib: 23
Green: 10
Other: 2

http://www.mustelgroup.com/062104.htm

Regarding the City of Vancouver, results it appears that Van Centre could be a close battleground.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 21 June 2004 04:30 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Looks good to me.

Ahem.
"A recent Mustel Group poll indicates that in BC, the Progressive Conservative Party has the support of 36% of decided voters, in contrast to 28% supporting NDP and 26% supporting the Liberal Party."
Who are these mysterious Progressive Conservatives?

I do like this little tidbit
"Conservative and NDP supporters are firmer in their intentions than Liberal supporters, suggesting that Liberal support is more vulnerable to erosion"

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 21 June 2004 04:33 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Election 2000:
49.4% Alliance
27.7% Liberal
11.3% NDP
7.3% PC
4.3% Other (including Green)

This poll:

Con: 36 (-13 from 2000 Alliance vote)
NDP: 28 (+17 from 2000)
Lib: 26 (-2 from 2000)
Green: 7 (+3? from 2000)
Other: 3


From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 June 2004 04:35 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
There are five ridings in Vancouver itself and I expect that Liberal support is heavily concentrated in Vancouver South and Vancouver Quadra. The NDP should hold Vancouver East without breaking a sweat and should have a solid lead in Vancouver Kingsway. Van Centre is the wild card, but these numbers bode very well. The "rest of BC" numbers are also very encouraging since the Cons. will waste a lot of votes in the Fraser Valley and Okanagan while NDP can pick up island and Coastal seats my consistent modest margins.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 21 June 2004 04:39 PM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Jacob Two-Two ]


From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 June 2004 04:44 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
BTW: One oddity I have noticed in polling in BC. Each time that there is a poll in BC with a solid sample size like this one or the Ipsos poll of 1,000 in BC last week, the NDP gets a solid 27-28%, but in the BC sub-sample of national polls where there are just 100-odd people in BC, we always seem to get the NDP a lot lower in the low 20s.

Obviously, the larger the sample, the more reliable.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Adam T
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posted 21 June 2004 06:09 PM      Profile for Adam T     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Stockholm, this poll likely puts the Fraser Valley as part of the GVRD, not as part of the "rest of province".

That would explain why the Conservatives lead so much in the GVRD.


From: Richmond B.C | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 June 2004 06:21 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I suppose it depends on what is defined as Fraser Valley. I can see places like Langley and even Abbotsford being considered GVRD, but sure once you get to Chilliwack and Lilloet etc... it is not.

Can someome from vancouver enlighten us on what is "GVRD" and what is not?


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Cougyr
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posted 21 June 2004 06:23 PM      Profile for Cougyr     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm always puzzled by the high results for the Cons in the Fraser Valley. I keep meeting people, mostly men, who say they voted Reform & Alliance in the past but won't vote for the new Conservative party. Usually, the reasons have to do with distrust of Harper and Bush's war. I've heard this so often, from so many different men, that I wonder who's being polled. Does Steven Harper have some sort of sex appeal to young women or something? I don't get it. The only one I've talked to who admitted liking the Cons is an older woman who impressed me as being a religious bigot. Maybe that's the ticket.
From: over the mountain | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 21 June 2004 07:06 PM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Lord, I hope there aren't really that many Bigots in my province.

I think it's more a process of elimination thing. There are many voters who will never vote NDP, and certainly aren't going to vote Liberal in the current climate, and weren't disposed to do so anyhow (a lot of these might have been temporary converts during Martin's brief glory days). This leaves only the CP when pollsters press them, although they don't like the new party, it's lack of populism, and it's evocation of Mulroney Tories. The question is, aside from how they answer the phones, will these people care enough to get out and vote?

I still think that the only party in BC with a fully committed base is the NDP. Liberals will be uninspired to vote, and a good chunk of Conservatives also.


From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 21 June 2004 08:01 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well I was door knocking today and there is a huge mushy soft vote that still has not made up its mind . The majority of people that I talked to had still not decided who to vote for , but voters going NDP were very positive about their choice. I only went to 1 household that was definitely voting Con with 2 maybes, and 1 that was voting Liberal.
From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Lou Arab
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posted 21 June 2004 08:36 PM      Profile for Lou Arab   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
GVRD does not include the fraser valley.

It includes all of the North Shore, Vancouver, Richmond, Delta, Surrey, Langley, and everything west of Maple Ridge (including Maple Ridge).

It does not include Abbotsford, Mission, Chilliwack.

That doesn't mean that Ipsos-Reid didn't include it in their definition of "GVRD"


From: Edmonton | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 21 June 2004 09:16 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

Can someome from vancouver enlighten us on what is "GVRD" and what is not?


Technically the "GVRD" is Langley in the South-East and Maple Ridge in the North East westwards to the Georgia Straight; and then from the US border in the South to the North Shore and the "North East Sector" (Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam) in the North (It also includes Pitt Meadows.

Whether or not this poll included the Fraser Valley meaning mostly Abbotsford and Chiliwack I have no idea. I suspect they did because while it's extremely believable that the Cons have a large lead in West-Van, South-Surrey, South Delta and Langley but the other places like Burnaby, New-West, the tri-cities and North-Van (where the Liberals are probably in contention) seem un-likely to have a large con lead. As such with the results of this poll they would have had to include highly conservative/Conservative areas to have them leading in the "GVRD". Maybe they meant the lower-mainland.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 22 June 2004 10:15 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are we seeing an urban-suburban-rural split happening in BC? If we detach the 'City of Vancouver' results from the GVRD, the CPC must have a pretty crushing lead south of the Fraser, and (on this poll) it calls into question our chances in the tri-cities seats. However, beyond the suburbs, our support picks up. If we are at 29% for 'Other BC', that likely translates into the low-mid 30's on the Island and mid 20's in the interior. On these numbers, we would be looking at three at least on the island and good shots at Skeena, Kamloops and one of the Kootenay area seats. All hypothetical, of course.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Cougyr
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posted 22 June 2004 12:19 PM      Profile for Cougyr     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Screaming Lord Byron:
Are we seeing an urban-suburban-rural split happening in BC?

There has always been an urban-suburban-rural split in BC. That's the big problem, and may be the reason for the pendulum effect in BC politics.


From: over the mountain | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 22 June 2004 07:05 PM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
It is unfortunate that the suburban belt is leaning Conservative this election when many of the Vancouver suburbs have gone NDP or Liberal in the past. I suppose it is much like the "905" belt around Toronto. Yet the periphery regions - the Island and Interior - are posting respectable figures for the NDP.

I guess it comes down to the suburban mentality - middle class, average education, a car and an SUV/dodge caravan in every driveway, large sprawling house in an inefficiently planned cul de sac, lots of Christians belonging to fringe protestant sects, lots of "soccer mom" issues previal such as crime and "child pornography", as well as frustration at the price of gas. These reactionary, middle class but not terribly successful, people of average education relying heavily on automobiles and private sector non-union employment, are likely the mainstay of Conservatives.

I guess it's just too bad the NDP couldn't shore up more support in the interior prior to the election call, because I think Conservative ideology would not go down well in the more secular, unionized parts of the interior.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 22 June 2004 09:33 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Regardless of it really won't matter so long as the NDP campaign is going strong, so long as the 'GOTV' efforts are fully staffed and affective it won't matter. The NDP will win at least 10 to 14 seats. With all these polls I'm getting real interested in seeing the real results. I suspect that some companies like Ipsos will end up with egg on their face for surveying 80 to 100 people and claiming that it’s a “snapshot” of public opinion in a province of four million. What nonsense!

As they say the only real result is the final result -- it‘s not how you start it‘s how you finish. End cliché.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 23 June 2004 06:27 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well it is nice to see you are optimistic David - but outside of Vancouver, Burnaby/New Westminster, and VIsland, our numbers are dissapointingly low. We're hitting record highs in Ontario and Atlantic Canada but in BC we're having trouble hitting the 30% mark, which I think should be our goal this election. I hope we win a lot of the three way splits in BC, but 14 seats is still a bit overly optimistic.
From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 23 June 2004 08:06 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well to be fair I said 10 to 14 seats as such that could be at the low end or that could be at the high end - that of course depends upon many things. As I said I really disregard the national polls that have regional samples. Also the NDP seems to have at least the 2nd best organization in BC -- unfortunatley after the Conservatives. There's really not much point in saying anything else regarding the polling numbers, party machines or extenuating cirucumstances -- mostly because they've all been said so personally, unless any major developments happen, I'm going to keep the predictions to a minimum.

But then again this is the point of the thread and predictions are fun so I reserve the right to change my mind.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 23 June 2004 08:24 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
For what its worth, the latest Environics poll has in BC Cons. 34%, Libs, 31%, NDP 31%
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 23 June 2004 08:31 PM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:

Also the NDP seems to have at least the 2nd best organization in BC -- unfortunatley after the Conservatives

Well that may be the case but just about every Liberal candidate has more money to work with, which means they can afford to mail out more pamphlets to riding households than the NDP can. When you can't get in touch with all of a constituency's residents by phone or in person, the pamphlets are very useful.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 25 June 2004 11:55 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Now Ipsos has a larger sample survey of BC that shows

Cons. 38
NDP 26
Libs 25
Greens 8

BUT, the regional breakdown they give provides hope on a seat basis. They have a three way dead heat in the Vancouver/Burnaby/New Westminster/North Shore region. Since the Conservative and Liberal vote will be skyhigh on the North Shore and in Van SDouth and Van Quadra, a three way split probably bodes very well for the NDP in Van Kingsway, Van Centre, Van East and the two Burnaby seats.

They also have the Vancouver Island region almost a dead heat between the NDP and Cons. at 32 C and 30 N with the Liberals trailing. This bodes well for at least a couple of seats there as well.

I don't really care if the NDP gets blown away in the outer burbs of Vancouver and in thre Interior since we never had much of chanxce of winning seats there anyways.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 26 June 2004 03:46 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I agree, Stockholm. I'm calling 9 NDP seats for the NDP in BC and only one of them is outside the Lower Mainland or Vancouver Island (Skeena). It's good to see the Greens going down but in these tight 3-way races they will likely cost us Nanaimo-Alberni and Van. Island North, and possibly New West-Coquitlam, as well as precluding any wins in the Kootenays this time.
From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged

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