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» babble   » from far and wide   » nfld, labrador, pei, ns, nb   » Alexa has nothing to worry about

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Author Topic: Alexa has nothing to worry about
Privateer
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posted 01 December 2005 07:28 AM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Halifax Liberals appear to be settling with a lesser known candidate this time in businessman Martin MacKinnon. He is no Sheila Fougere. Also, local media commentator Ross Haynes is crossing from the Tories to the Liberals to run against Peter Stoffer. Apparently the Liberals already had a candidate for Sackville-Eastern Shore who can't be reached at this time. No doubt this reflects the wishes of local Liberal members. Chronicle Herald

Regarding the NDP in Halifax West, the nomination is this weekend and we don't have a star candidate yet IMHO.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
alisea
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posted 01 December 2005 08:45 AM      Profile for alisea     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yeah, the Halifax West situation is really a shame. I don't think it would have been winnable this time around, but it would be nice if we could build a stronger base. I'm not sure that can happen without a name-recognition candidate.

Interesting background MacKinnon has. Credit Union activist + board member of the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies (our own version of the Fraser Institute) + former ACOA staff + owner of physiotherapy clinics? Certainly, ah, eclectic. I have trouble wrapping my brain around what his political philosophy is, beyond Liberal ;-)


From: Halifax, Nova Scotia | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
neoluddite
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posted 01 December 2005 10:25 AM      Profile for neoluddite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
He may not be a big name or a "superstar" candidate, but Alan Hill will be an asset to the party nonetheless. I know that the riding association has worked very hard to find a good candidate, and Alan recently agreed to stand for nomination. He's very active in the party (particularly the Young New Democrats), and has experience in labour, student advocacy, and many other iniatives. I'm certainly impressed by the wide range of his experience, and hope to volunteer with Halifax West's campaign as well as my home riding of Halifax's. It may be a stretch, but I am not prepared to concede Halifax West as "unwinnable". There are too many variables. An ineffective absentee MP of the tainted Liberal brand running against an active, under-30 NDP candidate? Call me a dreamer, but this could be an interesting race.
From: halifax | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 01 December 2005 10:26 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Anyone associated with AIMS should be running for the Cons, really. The 'research' I've read of theirs consists entirely of pre-concluded neocon talking points. Maybe MacKinnon has forsworn his former links with that bunch? Or maybe (more likely) there's no substantive difference between Atlantic Liberals and Conservatives...
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
white rabbit
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posted 01 December 2005 01:13 PM      Profile for white rabbit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I am not familiar with Martin MacKinnon. I take it Bill Carr could not be persuaded to run again in Halifax West? The areas of Hfx West that lie in the vicinity of Bill Estabrook's provincial riding can count on strong NDP support, but Regan has a very solid base in Bedford.
From: NS | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 01 December 2005 03:05 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by white rabbit:
I take it Bill Carr could not be persuaded to run again in Halifax West?
nodice shows Carr as the likely candidate, although not nominated. Is he running? Or are they relying on dated info? Are there no other good prospective candidates there?

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neoluddite
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posted 01 December 2005 03:16 PM      Profile for neoluddite     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
nodice shows Carr as the likely candidate, although not nominated. Is he running? Or are they relying on dated info? Are there no other good prospective candidates there?

Carr is not running, this info is likely outdated. However, there *is* a good prospective candidate running named Alan Hill. The nomination meeting is this coming Sunday.


From: halifax | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 01 December 2005 03:55 PM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:
Anyone associated with AIMS should be running for the Cons, really. The 'research' I've read of theirs consists entirely of pre-concluded neocon talking points. Maybe MacKinnon has forsworn his former links with that bunch? Or maybe (more likely) there's no substantive difference between Atlantic Liberals and Conservatives...

HELLO!?!?! Have you looked at Paul Martin's record? LOL He made Brian Mulroney look like Che Guevara.


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 01 December 2005 04:01 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My impression is that Hill doesn't live in this riding, has never lived in this riding, and has no significant personal connections to this riding. Don't get me wrong, he seems like a very well-rounded individual with many positive credentials, but does he have a "local" angle to bring to the table?
From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 01 December 2005 04:40 PM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Hunky_Monkey:

HELLO!?!?! Have you looked at Paul Martin's record? LOL He made Brian Mulroney look like Che Guevara.


What part of the word "Atlantic" do you fail to grasp?


From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 01 December 2005 05:11 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
From the Herald:

Mr. Haynes, a former Alliance member who considers himself fiscally conservative but socially liberal, says Mr. Harper’s announcement made him realize he’s in the wrong party.

"Well, I certainly divorced myself today from my affiliation with the Conservative Party of Canada," he said.

Mr. Haynes sent Mr. Harper a letter announcing he was leaving the Conservatives, and also sent a letter to this paper.

"Mr. Harper has opened, for me, a fatal concoction of political poison as he invites a debate on what has been resolved: the right of loving adults to marry regardless of sexual gender," Mr. Haynes wrote.

"For me, accepting those now-recognized and protected rights was a personal and political epiphany."


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 01 December 2005 11:00 PM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:

What part of the word "Atlantic" do you fail to grasp?


Ahhh... you mean the same ones who supported Martin's actions during the last decade?


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Threads
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posted 01 December 2005 11:19 PM      Profile for Threads     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You mean the same ones that were unceremoniously tossed out in 1997 after being elected in 1993?

(ETA: Fixed my comment.)

[ 01 December 2005: Message edited by: Threads ]


From: where I stand | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 02 December 2005 08:29 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Hunky_Monkey:

Ahhh... you mean the same ones who supported Martin's actions during the last decade?


Yes. Martin's conservative actions. Show me a social program that he improved before the NDP or the provinces forced his hand(Quebec's inititatives are largely responsible for recent federal improvements).


From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
white rabbit
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posted 02 December 2005 11:47 AM      Profile for white rabbit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Don Mills of Corporate Research Associates was on the radio this morning saying that the riding of Halifax is up for grabs.
From: NS | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 02 December 2005 12:14 PM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Do they have a new survey out? I can't find one on their website, so I'm going to call BS on Mr. Mills unless his organisation produces. It's kinda silly calling a 3-way race when one of the major parties has yet to name a candidate in the riding. Unless he's saying that Michael Oddy could compete (a position I doubt the CRA would endorse).
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 02 December 2005 04:35 PM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:

Yes. Martin's conservative actions. Show me a social program that he improved before the NDP or the provinces forced his hand(Quebec's inititatives are largely responsible for recent federal improvements).


That's what I was getting at... but thanks


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
white rabbit
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posted 03 December 2005 04:01 PM      Profile for white rabbit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:
Do they have a new survey out? I can't find one on their website, so I'm going to call BS on Mr. Mills unless his organisation produces. It's kinda silly calling a 3-way race when one of the major parties has yet to name a candidate in the riding. Unless he's saying that Michael Oddy could compete (a position I doubt the CRA would endorse).

Don Mills didn't get into specifics. Polling was apparently done across the region. It's not unusual for early polling to be done in ridings where a full slate of candidates are yet to be named. In fact, it is evident from other threads on babble that dozens of ridings have yet to select candidates. This doesn't prevent polling from taking place. Most pollsters don't ask about the specific candidates in any particular riding;
instead, the respondent is asked "which of the following parties will you vote for"?, or some variant thereof. My vote stays with the same party regardless of who the candidate is.


From: NS | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 03 December 2005 07:41 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This must be the survey Mills is refering to:

Atlantic:
Lib 46 (50 without none)
CPC 27 (30 without none)
NDP 18 (20 without none)
"none" 9

LINK

The question is where in the region has the NDP support declined (I believe it was 22% last election). He is assuming a lot if he thinks Halifax is winnable for the Liberals based on regional figures.

[ 03 December 2005: Message edited by: Privateer ]


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
white rabbit
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posted 03 December 2005 08:46 PM      Profile for white rabbit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
This item from the Charlottetown paper indicates that Liberal support is up across the region:

Liberal poll numbers show total sweep of P.E.I. seats
The Liberals are poised to sweep all four federal ridings in Prince Edward Island, according to a Corporate Research Associates poll released to The Guardian Thursday.

The poll gives the Liberal party 46 per cent, down eight percentage points from May but still ahead of the Conservatives by 14 percentage points.

The Conservative party has 32 per cent, down one per cent from May.

That is the strongest showing for the Conservative party in Atlantic Canada in the poll.

The NDP has 10 per cent support, up two per cent from eight in May.

Across Atlantic Canada, the Liberals dominate in every single province.

Atlanticwide, the Liberals have the support of 46 per cent of decided voters. Their highest level of support is in Newfoundland and Labrador at 50 per cent.

In the entire Atlantic region, the Conservatives are at 27 per cent and the NDP have the support of 18 per cent.

Don Mills, president and CEO of Corporate Research Associates, says Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is not a credible alternative to Atlantic Canadians.

“Their current leader is just not making any kind of an impact at all after two years of trying in this region,” Mills said in an interview.


Mills said it appears the Liberals can do no wrong in Atlantic Canada.

“The Liberals have done really well here for almost a decade. Through thick and thin, scandal and good times, it’s been really hard to knock them off the top of the perch.”

Corporate Research Associates’ seat calculator indicates that, based on today’s polling data, the Liberals could pick up three additional seats in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals now hold 22 of the 32 seats. The Tories have seven and the NDP three.

The seat calculator is projecting 25 seats for the Liberals, five for the Tories and two for the NDP.

“There is definitely a possibility for the Liberals to pick up a couple of seats, which on the surface seems incredible,” Mills said.


From: NS | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 05 December 2005 10:41 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Regional polling. I will be very, very surprised if Alexa's seat is threatened. I'll be mildly surprised if Savage's and Regan's seats aren't threatened.
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
white rabbit
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posted 05 December 2005 11:31 AM      Profile for white rabbit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm looking forward to hearing more about Alan Hill.
Did the NDP chose a candidate to run against Savage in Dartmouth?

From: NS | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Kevin_Laddle
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posted 05 December 2005 11:47 PM      Profile for Kevin_Laddle   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Briguy:
Regional polling. I will be very, very surprised if Alexa's seat is threatened. I'll be mildly surprised if Savage's and Regan's seats aren't threatened.


Geoff Regan is not going to lose, barring a miracle. Are you implying that a Dipper, or a Theo-Con could take him down?


From: ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE. ASK THE FAMILIES OF THE QANA MASSACRE VICTIMS. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 06 December 2005 02:50 AM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Kevin_Laddle:


Geoff Regan is not going to lose, barring a miracle. Are you implying that a Dipper, or a Theo-Con could take him down?


Did before Though not this time Only shot the NDP have at picking up another seat here is Dartmouth-Cole Harbour with Peter Mancini... but even that will be tough.


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 06 December 2005 09:06 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Kevin_Laddle:


Geoff Regan is not going to lose, barring a miracle. Are you implying that a Dipper, or a Theo-Con could take him down?


A combo of a good NDP candidate and an idiot neo-con could make it close. But I admit, it's more of a wish than a possibility.


From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged

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