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Author Topic: Psychology & Rationale of Estimating Anti-War Protest Attendance
rogerb
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posted 23 October 2005 09:52 PM      Profile for rogerb     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I went to the Anti-War demonstration in San Francisco, on Sept. 24.

I was surprised at some of the estimates I heard, about attendance. Just looking at the streets, and counting a quarter block worth of people, once we started marching from Dolores Park, it was pretty obvious that it was a Maximum of 1000 people per block.

The feeding of people from Dolores Park to the march route (eventually going down Market Street to Van Ness) and then up to McAllister, then to another park nearby, that all took about 45 minutes. It took about 4 minutes to walk each block. Doing the math - that's about 10 blocks worth of marchers with a maximum density of 1000 people per block. 10,000 people.

I am very anti-war and anti-Bu$h, that is, I have no incentive to under-estimate attendance.

Justin Raimondo at Antiwar.com estimated 20,000. The SF Bay Guardian estimated 50,000. Neither explained where they got their numbers.

This made me wonder - is there a political aspect to broadcasting the numbers ?

Like, "hey World, SF is REALLY anti-war, please don't attack us, Mr. Terrorist".

Anyway, after seeing the numbers that got published about the demonstrations, I got to wondering about the motives of the people estimating the number of people in attendance.

What's wrong with 10,000 ? Actually, judging by the number of people at Dolores Park at the beginning, and the number at Lafayette Park at the end, you would have to assume that a lot of participants joined the march without first stopping at Dolores Park. And that, as soon as they got to Lafayette Park, they split. 5000 would be a generous estimate of the number of people at either park before & after the rally.


From: califonia | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
M. Spector
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posted 23 October 2005 11:00 PM      Profile for M. Spector   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
[Why isn't this in the International Peace Movement forum?]
From: One millihelen: The amount of beauty required to launch one ship. | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
maestro
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posted 24 October 2005 06:17 AM      Profile for maestro     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The 20,000 figure came from the police, the 50,000 figure came from the organizers.

In that it is highly doubtful the police would overestimate the crowd, I think one can assume it was somewhere between those numbers.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged

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