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Author Topic: 2006 election - bc predictions, part 2
island empire
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posted 22 December 2005 02:31 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
okay okay, we needed a new thread. the old one was getting pretty long, plus, it began before the writ was even dropped.

anyway, so i spent some time going through the latest polling, reading every newspaper and journal i could find, and considering many of the comments on this board, the ridings history and results going back 2 cycles, the national and provincial campaigns so far, the areas that i know the federal parties to be targetting, the local candidate profiles, and the party organizations in the various ridings. with the information gleaned from this research, i reconsidered my initial predictions, carefully re-evaluating each of the 36 predictions that i made back in september. and in the end, my prediction did not change a bit:

NDP: 10
Con: 17
Lib: 9

my reasoning is the following:

1. vancouver-centre - i still think it will be hedy, but i may revise this one (i believe in svend).
2. vancouver-east - solid ndp, libby will embarrass haggard.
3. vancouver-kingsway - liberal emerson will hold.
4. vancouver-quadra - liberal owen by 12,000.
5. vancouver-south - liberal ujjal in a walk.

6. burnaby-douglas - i still think siksay should eke out the 6th consecutive tight ndp win here.
7. burnaby-new westminster - a tight three way race that i still think dipper julian will win.
8. new westminster-coquitlam - ndper black should pick this one up, but not by much.
9. port moody-westwood-port coquitlam - cpc's james moore easily holds this one.
10. pitt meadows-maple ridge-mission - ndp's bocking will narrowly lose again, very sadly.

11. north vancouver - liberal bell will hold for the liberals against fundamentalist silver.
12. west vancouver-sunshine coast-seat to sky country - wilson for the liberals (for the first time ever, i believe).

13. richmond - popular liberal chan has no problem holding this one.
14. delta-richmond east - conservative cummins by 3000.
15. fleetwood-port kells - i think grewal will hold this one, narrowly
16. newton-north delta - liberals by a hair.
17. south surrey-white rock-cloverdale - easy conservative hold.
18. surrey north - priddy gain for the ndp.

19. langley - never going anything but conservative.
20. abbotsford - riduculously solid conservative.
21. chilliwack-fraser canyon - unbreakably solid conservative.

22. british columbia southern interior - pretty easy ndp pickup.
23. kamloops-thomspson-cariboo - conservative hold (mostly on the votesplit).
24. kelowna-lake country - solid conservative
25. okanagan-coquihalla - solid conservative
26. okanagan-shuswap - solid conservative
27. prince george-peace river - solid conservative
28. cariboo-prince george - easy conservative hold
29. skeena-bulkley valley - ndp's cullen should hold this one.
30. kootenay columbia - solid conservative

31. esquimalt-juan de fuca - liberal dr. martin will hold this one.
32. nanaimo-alberni - conservative hold.
33. nanaimo-cowichan - safe ndp seat.
34. saanich-gulf islands - conservative hold.
35. vancouver island north - ndp gain as liberal voters start seeing orange.
36. victoria - fairly easy pickup for the popular ndp candidate.


controversial choices:

vancouver centre to the liberals: i may flip this one based on the reading i get from svend's campaign during the final week.

vancouver-kingsway to the liberals: i may flip this one depending on the traction for the conservative candidate - ndp could win here on the votesplit.

newton-north delta to the liberals: i think that a lot of the indo-canadian grewal support will go to the liberals, putting them out of our reach, but i wouldn't be surprised if the ndp or the cons won this one.

burnaby-new westminster to the dippers: julian has all the advantages, and his opponents are weak, weak, weak.

nanaimo-alberni to the liberals: looking again at the poll-by-poll i see a path to victory for the ndp (and none for the liberals), but i'm not yet convinced that the conservatives are toast on the island.

kamloops-thomspson-cariboo to hinton: the loudest people are anti-liberal, but the liberals have the best candidate. i'd almost bet on results identical to last time.

fleetwood-port kells: i think the riding will be conservative for the next little while, no matter how ineffective the candidate.

esquimalt-juan de fuca: i don't see dr. martin losing any time soon.

saanich-gulf islands: probably canada's screwiest riding last time, this time, with students away for school and absent the media hype, the green party will probably sink back down to the 9% range, the liberals to the 17% range, and the resuld will be an ndp second place finish to the conservative.


what do you all think?


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 22 December 2005 02:50 PM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
NS-GI - I don't think the Greens will sink, or at least not very much. The Liberal WILL sink, due to an unpopular (to my knowledge) canidate. I think we'll probably see a tight race between Burgis and Lunn, with the eventual edge going to Burgis. Lewis has an off chance of winning, but very slim. Orr is a conservative Liberal, and could draw votes away from Lunn. At the same time, Liberal voters could be put off by her BC Liberal days, and jump ship to Burgis or Lewis. More like Burgis, which I why I think she could win this one.

E-JDF - I think that this one is far too close to call. It was close last time, and NDP support overall in BC seems higher than before. Plus, early on he had a lackluster performance in a nationally-broadcast all candidates meeting of sorts. Who knows?


From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 22 December 2005 05:53 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that everyone is in denial about the fact that poll after poll after poll after poll after poll consistently shows the Liberals LEADING in BC and the Conservatives falling into the third place. If Conservative province wide support falls from 36% to 26% as polls now suggest, there is no way that the Tories can hold 17 seats. In fact they may end up in mid single digits in seats. the NDP only took 5 seats with 26% last time.

I see the Tories losing Surrey-White Rock, Richmon-South Delta, Saanich and many more.

The NDP dropped from 19 seats to 2 from 1988 to 1993 - its is not unprecedented for parties to get demolished in that province.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RUreD
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posted 22 December 2005 06:08 PM      Profile for RUreD        Edit/Delete Post
The Conservatives have a lock on 14 ridings. Harper would have to be exposed as a baby killer for them to lose those seats (interior, east, north).

They'll win a couple of the horse races and come out with 16 seats.


From: B.C. | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 22 December 2005 06:14 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That's what you think, but mark my words, if province wide support for the Tories drops into the mid-20s, they HAVE to lose a shit load of seats.

They could easily be reduced to just the folllowing:

Langley
Abbotsford
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
Okanagan-Coquihalla
Prince George Peace River
Kelowna
Kootenay East-Revelstoke

and that's it!! I dropping tide lowers all ships and the Tories could find their hopes of a minority gov't snuffed out by the voters of BC.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 22 December 2005 06:18 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, I tend to see BC as the most politically fluid province. Most seats are not safe for any party, this time.
From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
RUreD
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posted 22 December 2005 07:03 PM      Profile for RUreD        Edit/Delete Post
The voting for party by percent in B.C. can be a bit misleading as the non-urban ridings where the Conservatives do well are lower in total voter population. This is one reason why the Conservatives can come third in percent but still win the most seats. In PEI in contrast, the Liberals won 4 seats but the winning total for a candidate wouldn't even be enough to get second place in some larger urban Canadian ridings.
From: B.C. | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 22 December 2005 07:38 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I would agree that White Rock is not as conservative as one might think. The liberals stand a chance here.
From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 22 December 2005 11:53 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There isn't that big a differnece in population of ridings in BC. In fact some of the safest CPC seats in BC are the most overpopulated ones like Langley and Abbotsford and Saanich-the Islands etc...

The Conservatives are facing annhilation in BC. Wake up and smell the coffee.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 23 December 2005 02:46 AM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I wouldn't go so far as to say the Conservatives are nearing the end in BC, but I would say that they're going to lose a number of seats. I think they're probably not looking so hot on the Island as well, looking at pro-NDP voting paterns from the 2005 Provincial Elections.

But, since no one releases polling data for Vancouver Island or the Lower Mainland, who knows?! It's quite possible the Cons have enough concentrated vote to hold a number of seats. Certainly not gain any, but possibly not lose many.


From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 23 December 2005 05:52 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's what the Conservatives hold now. I'm going to make a few predictions, if you have problems with them, tell me. Personally I think some people are over-estimating Conservative strength should they fall to 30%, which seems likely.

Delta-Richmond East - Likely Conservative Hold, comfortable margin...around 2000-5000 votes. A star Liberal could pick it up, or if the Conservatives were back down to 20%, but I haven't heard any reason why their candidate is a star now and the Conservatives don't seem to be down at 20%.

Fleetwood-Port Kells - Slim Con Hold, 500-1000 votes. Nina Grewal is in trouble, and theoretically any of the three parties could win it. But I suspect she'll ecke out a win...simply by riding party coat-tails. The Liberal candidate is another BC Liberal retread swept out in the NDP resurgence, and the NDP candidate has run before in the federal and provincial election and may finish ahead of the Liberal.

Newton-North Delta - NDP or Liberal Pick Up, Cons well back. Cons won't win, but it's hard to say who of the NDP or Liberals will.

New Westminister-Coquitlam - Likely NDP pick up, 2000-4000 votes. Another BC Liberal re-tread is running here, and she happened to be the MLA when St.Mary's hospital was being closed. With the Conservatives down, and the NDP up, it seems likely to go their way.

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - Likely Liberal pick up, 2000-4000 votes. Reynolds isn't running again, and the Cons are down anyways. The Liberal candidate has a decent profile from last election's near win.

Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam - Likely Con hold relativley comfortable, 2000-4000 votes. The incumbent is moderate enough, and young enough, to probably hold off against an anti-CPC surge. It's possible the Liberals or NDP could pick it up, but I wouldn't bet on it.

South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - Slim Liberal pickup under 1000 votes. Another numbers game, not as bible-belt as people think.

Abbotsford - Solid Conservative hold, at least 15,000 votes...Alberta like.

Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - Solid Conservative hold, at least 10,000 votes...popular MP, plus too much Chilliwack.

Langley - Solid Conservative hold, at least 10,000 votes. Small-c conservative.

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - Likely NDP pickup, slim margin 1,000 votes. No name incumbent, and numbers game = likely/possible NDP pickup.

British Columbia-Southern Interior - Likely NDP pickup, comfortable margin 2,000 to 4,000 votes. Open seat, poor CPC candidate, NDP candidate has name recognition from last time = likely NDP pickup.

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - Likely Conservative Hold, solid margin 3,000-5,000 votes. The Liberals and NDP don't seem to have stars, and while this is a bellweather provincially, it seems to go with individuals federally. The incumbent hasn't really seemed to offend anyone, and the other parties haven't really given the people a reason to kick her out.

Kelowna-Lake Country - Solid Conservative Hold, 7,000-9,000 votes.

Kootenay-Columbia - Solid Conservative Hold around 10,000 votes. If the incumbent wasn't running, possible NDP pickup since its not a natural small-c conservative riding.

Okanagan-Coquihalla - Solid Conservative hold around 12,000 votes.

Okanagan-Shuswap - Solid Conservative hold 5,000-9,000 votes, it's open now, so their margin should be cut, still not enough for an NDP pickup.

Prince George-Peace River - Solid Conservative hold, 12,000-15,000 votes.

Cariboo-Prince George - Comfortable Conservative hold, likely 5,000 votes or so.

Nanaimo-Alberni - Should be close, but I'll say a slight NDP pickup under 1,000 votes. Their are high-scale areas in North Nanaimo here, but the incumbent is no-name and the Conservatives seem to have gone down from last time.

Saanich-Gulf Islands - Should be close, hard to say where it'll go. I'd predict a slim Conservative hold of less than 1,000 votes. Could be easily proven wrong.

Vancouver Island North - Incumbent was a former Reform member, which likely saved him. But The Conservatives are down, and the Liberals and NDP are up. Between the NDP and Cons it's a re-match, so profile's are decent. With all this considered, I'd predict a likely NDP pickup, 1,000-3,000 votes.

So of the total of 22 Conservative seats:

I'd predict 14 holds for them, some of them still quite shaky.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 23 December 2005 03:58 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
CPC numbers in the Lower Mainland are so catastrophiocally bad, i predict that they lose Richmond-South Delta by a wide margin and that dead-head Nina Grewal gets flushed down the toilet as well. On top of that if their suppoort really does go in to the low 20s across the province, they will haver some other surprise losses.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 23 December 2005 04:21 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The thing about White Rock/Cloverdale is that it is a mixed riding - very mixed.
White Rock and South Surrey ,close to the American border are very affluent and full of older people who have chosen to retire there, as well as professional people with families. Healthcare is a huge concern with this crowd and while they are fiscally conservative they still expect healthcare to be there when they need it. Cloverdale is not so affluent but is full of fundamentalist christian votes - there are some in White Rock as well but not an overwhelming amount. It is no accident that Hiebert has his signs up pronto in Cloverdale.
A strong appeal of fiscal restraint with emphasis on preserving healthcare would sell well to the secular crowd - give up on the fundies.

From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 23 December 2005 06:31 PM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For the most part, I agree with your island predictions. There's not a safe seat for the Con-men on the Island, insofar as I can see...
From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
anne cameron
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posted 23 December 2005 09:41 PM      Profile for anne cameron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't know how relevant lawn signs are, but I'm afraid in Tahsis there are a helluva lot of Conservative signs in evidence.

Scarey. And puzzling because when the mills were running this was solid Union-NDP but now... I'm not feeling terribly confident. I've got an NDP sign in my yard (of course) but it's starting to look just a slight tad lonely.


From: tahsis, british columbia | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
ghoris
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posted 24 December 2005 01:00 AM      Profile for ghoris     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Obviously B.C. is going to be a bit of a crapshoot right up to E-day, but I put no stock in any polls taken to this date that show the Liberals with 35% support. I hate to sound like a broken record, but we've seen this movie before: the Liberals poll very well in the pre-writ period and the early part of the election, only to crash when push comes to shove (usually to the benefit of the CA/Reform/CPC). The question this time is, assuming that Liberal vote collapses (and history says it probably will) does it collapse to CCRAP or the NDP?

The 'real' campaign begins after New Years. Most voters aren't really paying attention. My gut tells me most of that Liberal support is squishy-soft and is basically a convenient parking vote for people who haven't really been paying attention yet. I really believe that when push comes to shove a lot of that Liberal poll support will fail to materialize at the ballot box (kinda like 2004, 2000, 1997, 1993...). Maybe this time around will be different, but I'd like to see some polls taken about two weeks out from E-day before I start making any predictions about a Liberal surge in B.C.

Even if the Libs are up in the Lower Mainland, what that means is that they will increase their margins in seats they already hold, snag a couple of seats they came close in last time (Newton-North Delta, West Vancouver, possibly one of the Burnaby or Coquitlam seats) and maybe eat into CCRAP margins in seats like South Surrey-White Rock and Delta-East Richmond. But will they 'win these seats by wide margins'? No way.


From: Vancouver | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 24 December 2005 01:08 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Results for Tahsis, 2004 election:

Lib: NDP: Con: Green:

39 69 69 17

Looks like a pretty evenly divided community.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the number of signs though... last election North Van was leaning Conservative in the sign department I'd say by a 2 to 1 margin, and the Libs won decisively; the Libs had barely any signs in Vancouver Centre and won decisively there, as well.

Anecdotally I think Conservatives are a lot more committed/more likely to put signs up... I mean, just look at the vehement, undying loyalty to the Cons over on FD. These people are pretty damn committed. They vote in the advance polls, they get signs up, they donate a lot more money to their party than Liberals or New Democrats, etc.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 24 December 2005 02:20 AM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Cons and NDP at 69% each? Huh?
From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 24 December 2005 02:41 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Individual votes, in the poll.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 24 December 2005 02:51 AM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Gotcha.
From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 24 December 2005 09:37 AM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ghoris:
Obviously B.C. is going to be a bit of a crapshoot right up to E-day, but I put no stock in any polls taken to this date that show the Liberals with 35% support. I hate to sound like a broken record, but we've seen this movie before: the Liberals poll very well in the pre-writ period and the early part of the election, only to crash when push comes to shove (usually to the benefit of the CA/Reform/CPC). The question this time is, assuming that Liberal vote collapses (and history says it probably will) does it collapse to CCRAP or the NDP?

In 2004, most polls showed the Liberal in the low 30s and they ended up at about 29% on E-Day. Collapse? Not really. The main difference between this election and 2004 so far, is that the CPC vote is down about 5% and that has gone to the Liberals.

Leger. Ipsos and Environics polls now have the NDP in the mid-20s in BC. This is alarming to me as this indicates we aren't doing better than last time. Granted we will take a couple of seats from the CPC, Southern Interior and Van Is North. Also, Surrey North is ours. But Burnaby-New West would be a loss.

At this point, it looks like the Liberals are holding Victoria along with all other potential NDP pickups.

So here is my predictions for seat switches in BC:

Southern Interior: CPC to NDP
Vancouver Island North: CPC to NDP
Surrey North: IND to NDP
Burnaby-New West: NDP to LIB
New West-Coq-PM: CPC to LIB
Newton-North Delta: CPC to LIB
Fleetwood-Port Kells: CPC to LIB
West Van etc etc: CPC to LIB
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: CPC to LIB

I hate the above results, but that's what I honestly see unless things change dramatically.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Zarothar
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posted 24 December 2005 11:38 AM      Profile for Zarothar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nope, you've got to take seat-by-seat considerations into account. Victoria is just short of a safe seat for the NDP candidate. The popular Liberal incumbant, David Anderson, is finished. The Liberal candidate is not a very well known factor on the Island, and failed to defeat a somewhat weak Con candidate in another riding in 2004. The NDP candidate is a popular former city counciler. The Con candidate is pretty much unknown as well.

When you combine the factors:
1. Much stronger NDP candidate than last time. (Popular city counciller > somewhat unpopular former Mayor)
2. Popular incumbant retired.
3. Close race last time.

I think we'll be seeing a shift to the NDP.

Provincial polling numbers cannot really be accurately used to predict ridings like Victoria where the frontrunning parties from last time all have new candidates. Perhaps in Saanich-Gulf Islands, you could use provincial swing numbers a bit more.

To really get an accurate look at the Island ridings, you'd need to have poll data for just the island. Vancouver and the lower mainland have a much higher combined population total than the Island, so provincial data is skewed towards Van and the surrounding area. If you look at Provincial Election results, Vancouver Island was far more NDP-supporting than Vancouver/Fraser Valley. There's probably a bit of a skew for BC numbers...


From: West Coast | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 24 December 2005 02:32 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Zarothar:
To really get an accurate look at the Island ridings, you'd need to have poll data for just the island.

The only recent poll that has had Vancouver Island results separated out was Ipsos-Reid (Dec.15) with its huge BC sample size (1,600).

The island results were as follows:

NDP: 31%
CPC: 29%
Lib: 26%
Grn: 14%

These numbers (with a higher error margin) might change as we approach election day.

The only question in my mind is how these votes are distributed, ie. the Liberals were weak up island in 2004, the CPC were weaker in the Victoria area, while the NDP was weaker in the Saanich peninsula.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 24 December 2005 03:21 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
now, that's interesting. i can't seem to find any island only corollary polling for the 2004 cycle, anyone have any links to any?

[ 24 December 2005: Message edited by: dazzle me ]


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 24 December 2005 04:47 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Zarothar,

There were a few ridings that we looked certain in 2004 but slipped between our fingers. We simply underestimated Liberal strength in urban centres across Canada and overestimated "local factors" like candidates. Trinity-Spadina, Oshawa, Dartmouth, Regina and Saskatoon seats, and a few BC seats. They were supposed to be ours. We even had polls that showed us kicking butt in Van-Centre and Van-Kingsways. But so many times were ran candidates that were almost God(dess)-like NDPers against real stinky Liberal/CPC turds and we lost. Go figure. I've gone from optimist to pessimist perhaps permanently after last election. If I couldn't bet my paycheque on an NDP win in any particular seat, I'm not calling it. Sorry, but I have to hold off on Victoria for now. My prediction can change though.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 28 December 2005 02:47 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by dazzle me:
now, that's interesting. i can't seem to find any island only corollary polling for the 2004 cycle, anyone have any links to any?

I can't recall any Vancouver Island wide polls last time around, although there were regional breakdowns with smaller sample sizes.

I can probably extrapolate that the sample size for VI in this Ipsos-Reid poll was around 320, based upon 800 for the 250 area code and VI representing 40% of that sample.

Of interest, the actual vote numbers for VI in 2004 were as follows:

NDP: 32% (111,322/347,765)
CPC: 31.3% (108,848/347,765)
Lib: 25.7% (89,248/347,765)
Grn: 10.1% (35,182/347,765)


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
obscurantist
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posted 29 December 2005 10:54 PM      Profile for obscurantist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've seen some discussion of the West Van-Sunshine Coast riding, but wondered if anyone had some additional insights on the race.

I know that the Tory candidate who's replacing John Reynolds is a so-con, that the Liberal candidate who came close to defeating Reynolds is running again, and that the NDP and Greens both have different candidates from last time (Judith Wilson and Silvaine Zimmerman, as Nicholas Simons was elected to the provincial legislature in May, and I don't know why Andrea Goldsmith isn't running again for the Greens -- I have a dim memory about some kerfuffle to do with the nomination there, but I could be transposing events from somewhere else).

So, any thoughts on the candidates / issues in this riding? On the face of it, it looks like the Libs would have a good chance at picking it up.

Discussion on Electionprediction.org

[ 29 December 2005: Message edited by: obscurantist ]


From: an unweeded garden | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 30 December 2005 12:05 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I recenetly read an article in the Georgia Straight speaking about the anti-FN fishing rights postion that many of the Conservative candidates were taking. It was a bit of a screwed article, because it didn't have any New Democrat or Conservative response to the partisan hackery of the Liberal FN Chief who was claiming that the Liberals were the only party defending FN's rights (and that the other two were standing hand-in hand), but I digress.

It was saying that John Weston is a favourite of the Fraser Institute, and that he's one of the people who strongly fought FN's fishing rights. I was hoping to travel in the riding soon, not for political purposes, but maybe count some signs and talk to some family (if it came up). I might be going to West Van in a while, but I don't think I'll have time to travel throughout the Sea to Sky portion (let alone the Sunshine Coast). So yeah, I'd assume the Liberals would pick it up. Apparently John Reynolds picked up significant support in the more blue collar areas outside of Whistler and West Van, that Blair Wilson didn't attract, which saved him. I would doubt that that Weston has the same populist appeal.

[ 30 December 2005: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Politics101
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posted 30 December 2005 06:14 AM      Profile for Politics101   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
VK -"It was saying that John Weston is a favourite of the Fraser Institute, and that he's one of the people who strongly fought FN's fishing rights."

Public Eye on line is reporting that Michael Walker is working on Weston's campaign -
in talking to friends who live in the riding they feel Blair Wilson will win - they supported Reynolds personally in the past not necessarily whatever party label he was wearing in a particular election campaign.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 02 January 2006 11:26 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
i'm going to change my kingsway prediction to ndp. i think that a lot of folks are having buyers remorse/second thoughts, and i think that enough of them will vote conservative that emerson will lose (likely by a recount margin).

so as it stands:

NDP: 11
Con: 17
Lib: 8

1. vancouver-centre - hedy should hold this one.
2. vancouver-east - solid ndp, libby will embarrass haggard.
3. vancouver-kingsway - liberal emerson will narrowly lose to ndp *very* old hat waddell.
4. vancouver-quadra - liberal owen by 10,000.
5. vancouver-south - liberal ujjal in a walk.

6. burnaby-douglas - i still think siksay should eke out the 7th consecutive ndp win here.
7. burnaby-new westminster - a tight three way race that i still think dipper julian will win.
8. new westminster-coquitlam - ndper black should pick this one up, but not by much.
9. port moody-westwood-port coquitlam - cpc's james moore easily holds this one.
10. pitt meadows-maple ridge-mission - ndp's bocking will narrowly lose again, very sadly.

11. north vancouver - liberal bell will hold for the liberals against fundamentalist silver.
12. west vancouver-sunshine coast-seat to sky country - wilson for the liberals (for the first time ever, i believe).

13. richmond - popular liberal chan has no problem holding this one.
14. delta-richmond east - conservative cummins by 3000.
15. fleetwood-port kells - i think grewal will hold this one, narrowly
16. newton-north delta - liberals by a hair.
17. south surrey-white rock-cloverdale - easy conservative hold.
18. surrey north - priddy gain for the ndp.

19. langley - never going anything but conservative.
20. abbotsford - riduculously solid conservative.
21. chilliwack-fraser canyon - unbreakably solid conservative.

22. british columbia southern interior - pretty easy ndp pickup.
23. kamloops-thomspson-cariboo - conservative hold (mostly on the votesplit).
24. kelowna-lake country - solid conservative
25. okanagan-coquihalla - solid conservative
26. okanagan-shuswap - solid conservative
27. prince george-peace river - solid conservative
28. cariboo-prince george - easy conservative hold
29. skeena-bulkley valley - ndp's cullen should hold this one.
30. kootenay columbia - solid conservative

31. esquimalt-juan de fuca - liberal dr. martin will hold this one, albeit by a smaller margin this time.
32. nanaimo-alberni - conservative hold.
33. nanaimo-cowichan - safe ndp seat.
34. saanich-gulf islands - conservative hold.
35. vancouver island north - ndp gain as liberal voters start seeing orange.
36. victoria - fairly easy pickup for the popular ndp candidate.


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
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posted 02 January 2006 11:26 PM      Profile for babbler 8     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Regarding Fleetwood - Port Kells, an independent is running which may make the race even more interesting. http://www.jackcook.ca

According to the website he ran Chuck Cadman's first nomination campaign. I suspect he'll bleed off Conservative vote since Nina Grewal is so weak.

With a tight three way race last time this makes this very winnable for the NDP. Barry Bell got 28% of the vote last time with a very bare bones campaign spending 10% of what the Libs or Conservatives did. This time we should have a better chance.


From: take a break, we've been on this site too long | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 02 January 2006 11:42 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree Fleetwood-PK is a darkhorse seat for the NDP that I'm taking more seriously now. Consider also that Brenda Locke, the Liberal candidate, was trounced in the last BC provincial election. Her vote fell from about 50% in 2001 to just over 30% in 2005. That is one heck of a rebuke from the voters.

I'm also considering Esq-JdF a more likely NDP pick-up. There is a stronger CPC candidate who will divide the right-wing vote more than last time. Too close to call.


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posted 02 January 2006 11:49 PM      Profile for Euhemeros     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Barry Bell got 28% of the vote last time with a very bare bones campaign spending 10% of what the Libs or Conservatives did. This time we should have a better chance.

I suspect a fall in NDP votes actually; the reason why Mr. Bell's campaign didn't spend very much is b/c his campaign didn't do as much as the other parties (he just took advantage of the traditional NDP/contrarian vote). The same is true for this election. The first one out of the gate in Fleetwood is Brenda Locke and she already has a few signs up compared to the other parties; I would rather have a regular conservative such as Nina Grewal in Fleetwood rather than a BC Liberal neo-con such as Brenda Locke.

BTW, the independent candidate is interesting. Not stunning or remarkable, but interesting.

[ 03 January 2006: Message edited by: Euhemeros ]


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island empire
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posted 03 January 2006 12:05 AM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
re: jack cook. unfortunately, the guy's going to grab 800 votes, at the most, moreover, half of those will likely come from (otherwise) ndp voters.
From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
babbler 8
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posted 03 January 2006 12:39 AM      Profile for babbler 8     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Euhemeros:

I suspect a fall in NDP votes actually; the reason why Mr. Bell's campaign didn't spend very much is b/c his campaign didn't do as much as the other parties (he just took advantage of the traditional NDP/contrarian vote). The same is true for this election.
[ 03 January 2006: Message edited by: Euhemeros ]


There wasn't much done last time because they were building on 6% from the election before. This time is different and there is a campaign. Drop by the campaign office and see for yourself.
15387 104th ave.


From: take a break, we've been on this site too long | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 03 January 2006 05:21 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Emerson is publically and loudly breaking with the Liberal line by calling for an official apology over the former head tax on Chinese immigrants.

I am now officially declaring Vancouver Kingsway in play.


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island empire
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posted 06 January 2006 11:33 AM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
word from friends in the riding is that svend is getting a lot of negative reaction during volunteer recruiting calls and door knocking. unfortunate.

looks like only a major lib->con movement will put him in over hedy. somehow i'm not counting on that happening in centre to the extent it would be needed.


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 06 January 2006 08:14 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by dazzle me:
re: jack cook. unfortunately, the guy's going to grab 800 votes, at the most, moreover, half of those will likely come from (otherwise) ndp voters.

Why?


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Bernard
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posted 06 January 2006 08:29 PM      Profile for Bernard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So the polls are swinging to the Conservatives in Canada. Latest SES numbers in BC have the CPC at 41, Liberals at 27 and NDP at 23 and Greens at 7

The CPC is ahead of where it was in the last election.

If there is a collapse in the Liberal vote, the NDP could pick up a few seats and the CPC could gain as well.

Best Green will be Ariel Lade, he will come 3rd ahead of the Liberal with about 20% of the vote.

CPC 24
Liberal 5
NDP 7

1. Vancouver-Centre - Likely Liberal again, though Svend might do something
2. Vancouver-East - NDP
3. Vancouver-Kingsway - Liberal
4. Vancouver-Quadra - Liberal
5. Vancouver-South - as much as I dislike it, Liberal

6. Burnaby-Douglas - NDP
7. Burnaby-New Westminster - NDP - though this will be very, very tight
8. New westminster-Coquitlam - CPC, again Forseth seems to win these close races like landslide Annie does in Alberta
9. Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam - CPC
10. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission - CPC

11. North Vancouver - CPC - Bell is going down narrowly to Silver
12. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - CPC Blair was a fluke last time

13. Richmond - Liberal
14. Delta-Richmond East - CPC
15. Fleetwood-Port Kells - CPC
16. Newton-North Delta - NDP but maybe CPC
17. South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale - CPC
18. Surrey North - NDP

19. Langley - CPC
20. Abbotsford - CPC
21. Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - CPC

22. British Columbia Southern Interior - CPC - With no rural or BC platform, the NDP is not going to make it here. Also, the element of surprise is gone this time.
23. Kamloops-Thomspson-Cariboo - CPC
24. Kelowna-Lake Country - CPC
25. Okanagan-Coquihalla - CPC
26. Okanagan-Shuswap - CPC
27. Prince George-Peace River - CPC
28. Cariboo-Prince George - CPC
29. Skeena-Bulkley Valley - NDP though not easy
30. Kootenay Columbia - CPC

31. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - CPC. NDP and Liberals will lose some votes to Greens
32. Nanaimo-Alberni - CPC
33. Nanaimo-Cowichan - NDP
34. Saanich-Gulf Islands - CPC
35. Vancouver Island North - CPC, by a wider margin. NDP is once again not targetting rural BC in a way to win
36. Victoria - CPC though narrowly over the over confident NDP campaign. The CPC has a lot of old vote it is recovering from the Liberals and the NDP is not having much success stemming the increase in Green vote


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Privateer
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posted 06 January 2006 08:45 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, but at the same time the SC poll has all three parties tied (within the margin of error) in BC and Ipsos Reid has the NDP in first. As Vaughn Palmer just said, it is hard to read BC with the polls and many races are very local. Only one apparent trend so far, the Liberal vote is weak and starting to decline.
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Stockholm
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posted 06 January 2006 09:52 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Anyone who is crazy enough to predict a CPC win in Victoria of all places has no credibility whatsoever. Victoria last went Conservative in 1984 and it is a bastion of left of centre small "l" liberalism. The Conservative candidate was a very very distant distant third in 2004 and that was with the NDP having a weak candidate compared to this time. About 70% of the federal riding of Victoria is made up of the two City of Victoria provincial ridings both of which went NDP in May by mammoth lopsided margins (the NDp just missed in oak bay which is the other 30%).

The Greens seem to be weaker across the board in BC than last time and the new NDP candidate has sterling environmental credentials. victoria is probably the likeliest NDP gain in all of Canada.


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faith
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posted 06 January 2006 10:54 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Bernard there is no way there is going to be a cpc win in Newton- North Delta. The race here in NND (my riding) is between the Liberal Sukh Daliwal and the NDP Nancy Clegg, the conservative candidate doesn't stand a chance.
The cpc candidate is a reform type anti aboriginal fishery guy- the FN people are so alarmed at the even slight possibility of this guy winning that they are meeting with the East Indian community here in Newton to warn them not to vote for the guy. This development was discussed on CBC radio Vancouver and while no one actually said the word racist .....

From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 06 January 2006 11:08 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, things are too fluid right now. I wouldn't base a prediction on any one poll, wait till the 20th or so, then I think a more serious prediction can be made. I mean heck, I could say the NDP are going to win Vancouver-Quadra based on a suprisingly strong sign presence in the Northern portions of the riding, but I'd be suprised if they even came in a distant second considering the fact that it has all the 'creme de la creme' areas to the south.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 06 January 2006 11:21 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Phil Eidsvik is the questionable choice for cpc candidate in NND. Public Eye Online has a good article on his westcoast views and his views on the eastcoast fisheries as well.
A quote from an article on his history -
quote:

- fisheries activist Phil Eidsvik - is not without some of his own baggage.

As executive director of the British Columbia Fisheries Survival Coalition, Mr. Eidsvik has been lobbying and protesting against expanded commercial fisheries for aboriginal peoples since the early nineties. In the past, he has described such fisheries as being "foul and offensive," "race-based" and even "evil." And his coalition was an early advocate for putting First Nations treaties to a refrendum. Back in September 1999, the group wrote to British Columbia municipalities asking them put the following question on their local election ballots: "Do you support the Nisga'a final agreement as it stands today?" All this will be surely trotted out by the Liberals as further proof Tory leader Stephen Harper is opposed to First Nations rights.


[ 08 January 2006: Message edited by: faith ]


From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 06 January 2006 11:23 PM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Bernard:
Latest SES numbers in BC have the CPC at 41, Liberals at 27 and NDP at 23 and Greens at 7
11. North Vancouver - CPC
12. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - CPC
16. Newton-North Delta - NDP but maybe CPC
22. British Columbia Southern Interior - CPC
31. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca - CPC.
35. Vancouver Island North - CPC
36. Victoria - CPC

The tracking polls are interesting and provide a sense of trends but are over a longer period of time (for regionals such as BC). I just don't think they provide a good momentary snapshot.

The only BC poll providing a good one day snapshot, IMHO, was that of Ipsos-Reid (Dec. 15 - 1,600 sample size) and probably today's Ipsos Reid (although I have not yet seen BC's sample size).

BC:

Dec. 15 - Today

CPC: 33% - 35%
Lib: 32% - 33%
NDP: 25% - 24%
Grn: 9% - 7%

As for the north shore seats returning to the CPC - very doubtful. Victoria, Esquimalt, and Newton Nordel are urban Liberal/NDP battles, and Southern Interior and VanIsle North are likely to elect the NDP this time around.


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faith
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posted 06 January 2006 11:34 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I also know people in Pt Alberni that are strong NDP supporters and there is no reason that Alberni - Nanaimo shouldn't go NDP as Alberni-Qualicum went NDP provincially.
Provincially Saanich South, Victoria Hillside and Victoria Beacon Hill are all NDP so I'm not sure where Bernard is seeing all of this cpc support. There will be some support for the cpc but not overwhelming.

From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 06 January 2006 11:36 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
double post

[ 07 January 2006: Message edited by: faith ]


From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
obscurantist
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posted 07 January 2006 01:47 AM      Profile for obscurantist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I grew up in North Delta, and as I said on another thread, I'm not sure Eidsvik's views on native-only fisheries will hurt him that much. John Cummins, one of Eidsvik's allies on this issue, has been an MP since 1993 in a riding that included North Delta until 2000.

On the other hand, North Delta was one of the ridings that the NDP surprised many observers by winning in last May's provincial election. I think it'll be a three-way race again, and would give the edge to Eidsvik.


From: an unweeded garden | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 January 2006 04:36 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For what its worth, the Strategic Counsel poll out today has a sample size of 200 in BC (not bad compared to some of the skimpy 120 samples Ipsos Reid often has). They now show the following!

NDP - 32% (up 6% since 2004 election)
CPC - 31% (down 5% since the 2004 election)
Libs - 29% (unchanged)
Others - who cares

If this trend is born out and the NDP does that well, we could see the NDP scoop up each and every one of the following seats:

From the Tories:

Southern Interior
North Vancouver Island
Nanaimo-Alberni
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Pitt Meadows-Mission etc...
Surrey North
Newton-North Delta

From the Libs:

Victoria
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Kingsway

That would mean 16 NDP seats in BC

Of course the Liberals would also gain a couple from the Torioes by holding steady while the Tory vote falls. They wouuld probably gain:

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
Fleetwood Port Kells
Surrey-White Rock

If the Tories drop just a tad lower then they could also lose Saanish-the Islands and Port Moddy-Port Coquitlam to either the Liberals OR the NDP.

I'm smacking my lips already!!


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West Coast Tiger
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posted 07 January 2006 05:19 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Stockholm,

As I mentioned on the main poll thread, I am in agreement with you here. Although there is a lot of 'soft' NDP support, I think it is more solid in BC then other places in Canada. I honestly feel that BC is going to give a lot of seats to the NDP this time around. I've heard nothing but good things about them from friends and family back home in BC ridings. The momentum is there -- I am certain of it. We just have to stay the course.

/drift

Since I'm across the Pacific right now, I can't really see the signs in the ridings. Not sure if I should start another thread on this, or just ask you all here, but how are the lawn signs looking in your parts of BC??

/end drift.


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 07 January 2006 02:37 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
Yeah, things are too fluid right now. I wouldn't base a prediction on any one poll, wait till the 20th or so, then I think a more serious prediction can be made.

my thoughts exactly. my guess is that we're going to see a good amount of variation between polls until things stabilize in the final 3-4 days. that said, with the scandals hitting the liberals right now, i'm thinking that the trend outside the lower mainland can't be anything but downward for the liberals.

also, one thing i consistently heard from people when i was back in bc recently is that they don't feel that they need to vote as strategically because the liberals and ndp are seen as sharing broad policy goals, etc. from this, my sense is that in ridings like victoria, van-kingsway, esquimalt-juan de fuca, and maybe newton-north delta, southern interior and dewdney-alouette, you're going to see a pretty significant swing from liberal to ndp viz. 2004. this means that the ndp should be able to pick up several of the seats that they narrowly lost last time around, and that people like nathan cullen should be sitting pretty safe.

also, someone said that layton's not making a play for the interior, well, i disagree. one major point that i think is going to play very very well in the southern interior, and on several island ridings, is layton's mandatory minimum on handguns promise. the retirees love that stuff, and especially the retirees who want to believe that there's still a broadbent-style ndp to vote for.

more than this - remember that when someone flips the vote from one party to another, that's actually a movement of two votes, one from and one to. what that means is that, last time around, roughly 60 forseth voters in new west would have needed to have voted for mcclurgg in order for him to have won. look for hardcore ndp gotv efforts (helped to an enormous extent by the huge new database of ndp-identified provincial volunteers and voters) to get people out to vote. they didn't have that in 2004 and that's going to make a huge difference. i remember working on the 2005 provincial campaign, looking at the voter lists in kamloops, and noting that maybe 2% had been hit in during the 2004 federal campaign, and that the id's from 2001 were either out of date or irrelevant (because 2001 was a hardcore anti-ndp year in bc). well, because of the 2005 provincial campaign, something close to 80% of those folks have been fairly recently hit - which is pretty much as high as you can reasonably go. for the homeowners it probably goes up to 90%, which means that we have some idea of how about 70% of the voting public is planning to go this time around. obviously people in bc don't just vote ndp reflexively (lots of provincial ndpers are federal grits), but we still save a lot of time by discarding the pre-identified bc liberal supporters, who are definitely not ndp-sympathetic. ie. we now have lists of likely voters, and this is true across the province. couple this with the fact that the 2005 provincial campaign brought in a lot of new volunteers, and i think that some of the pessimism expressed here seems a little unwarranted.

this is all to say a) that what the polls say won't really matter until the final days; and b) that the gotv is super important anyway. the conservatives have pretty good gotv in the interior of bc, the north shore and some parts of the island (mostly from the reform days and from the bc liberal hardcores) but are very weak in victoria and much of the lower mainland, while the liberals have good gotv in the lower mainland and victoria but are very weak in almost all other areas. both of these parties make up for their weaknesses (ie. they stay competitive in weak areas) because of their money (the ability to pay canvassers and professional telemarketing services) and the air campaign. the ndp has to rely more on its volunteer id and gotv efforts, and these are much much stronger in the ndp-targetted ridings than they were in 2004.

overall, i think that the ndp's air and ground positions are far far better than they were in 2004, so i'm not really ready to believe that ndp candidates are going to do the same or worse than last time around.

...

on the jack cook thing, i think that cook will grab about half of his votes (say 400 or so) from the white male park-the-vote crowd who would go ndp out of distaste for both the libs and the cons. they've seen his name in the paper, he said something they agree with, they don't want to vote for a party this time around, and so forth.

[ 07 January 2006: Message edited by: dazzle me ]


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 07 January 2006 02:58 PM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I grew up in North Delta, and as I said on another thread, I'm not sure Eidsvik's views on native-only fisheries will hurt him that much. John Cummins, one of Eidsvik's allies on this issue, has been an MP since 1993 in a riding that included North Delta until 2000.

Hi Obscurationist - I appreciate the fact that you grew up in North Delta but it is a different riding than it was even 10 years ago. I have lived here since 88 and have seen it change dramatically. John Cummins was voted in by South Delta, (Ladner and Tsawwassen), who would vote in a ham sandwich if it was right wing enough. Guy Genter the provincial ND that won in the last election worked hard with the ethnic community and had a long history of supporting/working for North Delta.
Gurmant Grewal has left a poisoned well for the Conservatives, I could be wrong but I do have an ear to the ground here and sources tell me that polling suggests the Conservatives will be well back in the race.

From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Bernard
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posted 07 January 2006 04:46 PM      Profile for Bernard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
On Victoria, 2004 is the only election that the Right was not either the winner or second place in the riding. Basing 2006 on one third place finish is not looking at the bigger picture.

Yes, the Consrevatives have not won Victoria since 1984, but in 1988, 1993, 1997 the combined vote of the right was higher than the winner.

In 2004 the right in Victoria voted for David Anderson because of their fear that they would be represented by David Turner of the NDP.

Now it is 2006 and the Conservatives are running their best candidate in a long time, he is best fit with the centre right in the riding, much better than the Liberal.

Predicting a Conservative win in Victoria is not a long shot

As to North Delta Newton - whether you like Eidsvik or not ir irrelevant, the fact that he resonates with a lot of working class people and touches that populism that is such an important factor in BC.

The numbers are bouncing all over the place in the polls in BC. This is sign that people have not been grabbed by any of the campaigns, it also means that incumbency and local issues will matter more.

On election day many people will decide on a factor such as how is likely to form goverment. If it is the CPC, then many of them will stay with the CPC to ensure that they have an MP in government. The last time that most BC ridings had a government MP was 1984-1988. We are talking 18 years in the wilderness for most of BC.

I do believe that the Liberal vote in BC is very, very soft. I believe that the NDP has a good 20-25% solid and the CPC 30% solid.

The NDP could have taken many seats in BC, but they are not running any sort of campaign that speaks to the hearts and minds of the people of BC. If I were the NDP I would demanding that the next parliament add seats to BC, Alberta and Ontario. You add seats there and the NDP has a chance to win them BC and Ont. You also gain votes in BC and Ont, espcecially BC.

I would also have had the NDP come up with some real platforms to address rural resource towns in BC - these people would vote for the NDP but never the Liberals. As long as the NDP does not highlight they will make life easier for loggers, miners, and fishermen, they are surrendering ridings to the CPC.


From: Victoria | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 January 2006 05:08 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A message brought to you by the Conservative Party of Canada
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 07 January 2006 05:18 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Of course the Liberals would also gain a couple from the Torioes by holding steady while the Tory vote falls. They wouuld probably gain:

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast
Fleetwood Port Kells
Surrey-White Rock

If the Tories drop just a tad lower then they could also lose Saanish-the Islands and Port Moddy-Port Coquitlam to either the Liberals OR the NDP.

I'm smacking my lips already!!


Other than West Van etc. etc., the Liberals are in no position to take any new seats in BC. I predict they will stay in the 26-28% range, at best. Their dreams are over in BC. Money is so tight for them that sending Paul Martin out there to resurrect the campaign is becoming very difficult.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 January 2006 06:29 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the Liberals shoudl have a good shot at Fleetwood-Port Kells. Let's face is the CPC incumbent Nina Grewal is an object of national ridicule and derision and trhere is a very large immigrant vote there. Should be a tailor made Liberal pick up. I think that seat has too many NDP unfriendly areas to go NDP.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 07 January 2006 06:47 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, but Brenda Locke is widely disliked. I hear she is seen as very negative and inconsistent on the issues. She also has to campaign with the BC government on her back. Surrey turned on that government last election, even more than expected. Locke personally saw her vote decline from about 50% to about 30%. If the Liberals had even run a total nobody, they would have increased their odds of winning this seat.

Keep in mind that the NDP lost seat by about 8%. Just like Vancouver Centre, Nickel Belt, Algoma MK, Saskatoon RB, Parkdale-HP, and London-Fanshawe.

This BC Asian middle-class vote has more potential than we might realize, especially with the Liberals crashing.

Granted, we are not running a star candidate. But Bell has kept his profile up and won about 40% of the vote in Surrey-Tynehead, which makes up well over 80% of this seat.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 07 January 2006 08:18 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There are a few ridings in BC that could be wild cards. One is Saanish-the Islands which went NDP in 1988 and is half made up of an NDP provincial riding. I suspect the bottom may fall out of the Green vote this time and make it Liberal or NDP winnable.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 07 January 2006 09:54 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
There are a few ridings in BC that could be wild cards. One is Saanish-the Islands which went NDP in 1988 and is half made up of an NDP provincial riding. I suspect the bottom may fall out of the Green vote this time and make it Liberal or NDP winnable.

WIth the Greens taking over 10%, one of the other candidates could win with less than 30%. Imagine the NDP candidate winning with 28%. Let's hear it for FPTP.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
obscurantist
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posted 08 January 2006 02:33 AM      Profile for obscurantist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Faith, I defer to your more recent knowledge of the riding, and I hadn't factored in the impact that Grewal's recent escapades might have on the Tory vote. I hope you're right!

quote:
Originally posted by faith:
I appreciate the fact that you grew up in North Delta but it is a different riding than it was even 10 years ago.

From: an unweeded garden | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Euhemeros
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posted 08 January 2006 03:14 AM      Profile for Euhemeros     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've heard that recently Brenda Locke was on an Indo-Canadian radio show. Apparently she said that crime wasn't a big issue in Surrey and that set off the listeners esp. given the Bear Creek Park murders.
From: Surrey | Registered: Nov 2005  |  IP: Logged
faith
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posted 08 January 2006 04:04 AM      Profile for faith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Obscurationist I am going on what I have heard - people are thoroughly peeved at the libs - Grewal is the previous con and the choice to replace him, Eidsvik, has the first nations people requesting meetings with the leaders of the South Asian community to stop any votes going his way.
I am keeping my fingers crossed and volunteering on the campaign for Nancy Clegg, a wonderful candidate.

From: vancouver | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Left Turn
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posted 08 January 2006 04:48 AM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In Burnaby-New Westminster, NDP incumbent Peter Julian is in a tough fight against Liberal challenger Mary Pynenberg. Pynenburg, the Liberal Candidate in 2004,is back for a rematch. Peter won this riding by only 324 votes in 2004.

They profiled this riding on CPAC, and Mary Pynenburg had some disparaging comments. She said that in 2004 the Conservative candidate had more support than the Liberals until the last days of the campaign, when the conservative vote started collapsing to the Liberals. Pynenburg believes that had the election been a day later she would have come out on top. If Pynenburg's view is accurate, the Peter Julian may not have had the support of the plurality of the voters going into this election.

Two other factors could influence the vote. 47% of the population of the riding identifies itself as "new Canadian". This, among other factors, leads to a high level of transientcy in and out of the riding. So I figure that somewhere between a quarter to a third of the voters in the riding did not live in the riding in June 2004. Also the immigrant vote is more favorable towards the Liberals than the NDP, especially the asian/chinese immigrant population. Gabriel Yiu, 2005 provincial elction Canadidate for the NDP in Burnaby-Willingdon has helped Peter canvass the chinese voters. People do remember Gabriel, but I'm not convinced it can give us more than about half a percentage boost.

The rising popularity of the Conservatives in BC could help us by drawing some votes away from Pynenburg, but the Conservative candidate is an unknown political newcomer. Besides, how much support can the conservatives really be expected to gain in an urban riding like Burnaby-New Westminster?


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 08 January 2006 05:37 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Tiger:

Since I'm across the Pacific right now, I can't really see the signs in the ridings. Not sure if I should start another thread on this, or just ask you all here, but how are the lawn signs looking in your parts of BC??


Maybe, Van-Kingsway has a better shot of going NDP this time because A) the Conservative candidate isn't some unknown (Young-BC Con type partisan), and actually someone with a lot of community service experience with the local Chinese community, which will B) hurt the Liberals and C) even if Waddell treads water (ie: doesn't change or increase his vote) should help them as the NDP and Libs split about 80% of the vote last time in a two-way race. I've seen a lot more signs for the Con candidate, in a riding I KNOW won't go to them so that along with Emerson's comments about Layton probably makes him a little more vulnerable.

[ 08 January 2006: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
brookmere
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posted 08 January 2006 01:36 PM      Profile for brookmere     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
the trend outside the lower mainland can't be anything but downward for the liberals.

But there are only two seats to lose anyway (and how vulnerable is Martin?). More seats than that to possibly pick up in Greater Vancouver.

Of course, the political characteristics of the province are so variegated that province-wide numbers don't tell us much - one party might well be going in different directions in the GVRD and up-country.


From: BC (sort of) | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 08 January 2006 04:00 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
you've got a couple good points brookmere, on the second, i found this rather accurate point from cpc mp james moore's blog:

quote:
Dec 18/2005

It is quite the sad sight watching some "experts", virtually all non-British Columbians, trying to predict the lay of the political land in B.C. based on recent polls. The truth? B.C. IS a battleground, but support for the parties varies wildly from one area of B.C. to another, one campaign to another. There is a difference between the central island, the north shore, the valley, the north, the capitol region, south Vancouver, the wealthy suburbs, the Okanagan and elsewhere, but few 'analysts' seem to understand this. Polling province-wide, with the small sample sizes the large firms use, with virtually no meaningful or proportionate regional distribution, makes the results thoroughly dubious, and anyone who bases predictions on the numbers is playing a fools game.
Consider the following B.C. polls, ALL done in the last 3 days:

Leger Marketing (B.C.)
38% Conservative
28% NDP
26% Liberal

Ipsos Reid (B.C.)
33% Conservative
32% Liberal
25% NDP

SES Research (B.C.)
40% Liberal
35% Conservative
17% NDP

Strategic Council (B.C.)
35% Liberal
30% NDP
29% Conservative


on the other, the point on the downward trend for the liberals outside of the lower mainland wasn't about what seats they'd lose (aside from victoria and e-jf), rather, on the ex-liberal support the ndp can grab in outside of the lower mainland.


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 08 January 2006 04:09 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Again, crazy SES regional numbers.

Vaughn Palmer, who I highly respect, made the same observations as Moore.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Politics101
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posted 08 January 2006 07:52 PM      Profile for Politics101   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
So it looks like Stephen Harper wants to steal my tax dollars - the last Parliament passed the mini- budget which provided for some tax relief for most canadians and especially those of us making less than $35,000 and looking at my first pay cheque of 2006 it was a tax savings of about $20.00. The Conservatives voted against the changes - the other three parties voted in favor.
Now Harper says he will rescind the tax changes because we will be saving on the GST - how much do i have to spend to save $20.00 in GST.
Me thinks that this is the first break for the Liberals in the campaign and hopefully they will start to hammer away at the Conservatives that the tax cuts enacted earlier this year will benefit the lower income Canadians more while their GST cut will help the rich more because they tend to spend more.
Harper - leave my hard earned tax savings alone.

From: Vancouver | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
brookmere
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posted 11 January 2006 06:09 AM      Profile for brookmere     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
rather, on the ex-liberal support the ndp can grab in outside of the lower mainland.

Precisely, and this is what will result in NDP gains from Cons incumbents - convincing Liberal (AND Green) supporters that only the NDP can beat the Cons in their riding. Now more than ever, this is the key to winning - not the latest cerebral utterance from Layton.

[ 11 January 2006: Message edited by: brookmere ]


From: BC (sort of) | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 12 January 2006 12:26 AM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
the polls are starting to settle down in bc, and i'm going to make my second to last bc prediction.

i know, i know it sounds insane but:

NDP: 13
Con: 17
Lib: 6

1. vancouver-centre - hedy should hold this one.
2. vancouver-east - solid ndp, libby will embarrass haggard.
3. vancouver-kingsway - liberal emerson will narrowly lose to ndp's waddell.
4. vancouver-quadra - liberal owen by 10,000.
5. vancouver-south - liberal ujjal in a walk.

6. burnaby-douglas - siksay should eke out the 7th consecutive ndp win here.
7. burnaby-new westminster - a tight three way race that i still think dipper julian will win.
8. new westminster-coquitlam - ndper black should pick this one up, but not by much.
9. port moody-westwood-port coquitlam - cpc's james moore easily holds this one.
10. pitt meadows-maple ridge-mission - ndp's bocking will narrowly lose again, very sadly.

11. north vancouver - liberal bell will hold for the liberals against fundamentalist silver.
12. west vancouver-sunshine coast-seat to sky country - wilson for the liberals (for the first time ever, i believe).

13. richmond - popular liberal chan has no problem holding this one.
14. delta-richmond east - conservative cummins by a lot.
15. fleetwood-port kells - no problems for grewal to hold.
16. newton-north delta - ndp grabs the protest vote to win this squeaker.
17. south surrey-white rock-cloverdale - easy conservative hold.
18. surrey north - priddy gain for the ndp.

19. langley - never going anything but conservative.
20. abbotsford - riduculously solid conservative.
21. chilliwack-fraser canyon - unbreakably solid conservative.

22. british columbia southern interior - pretty easy ndp pickup, with zeisman a convicted felon before the end of the year.
23. kamloops-thomspson-cariboo - conservative hold (mostly on the votesplit).
24. kelowna-lake country - solid conservative
25. okanagan-coquihalla - solid conservative
26. okanagan-shuswap - solid conservative
27. prince george-peace river - solid conservative
28. cariboo-prince george - easy conservative hold
29. skeena-bulkley valley - ndp's cullen should hold this one.
30. kootenay columbia - solid conservative

31. esquimalt-juan de fuca - ndp gain.
32. nanaimo-alberni - conservative hold.
33. nanaimo-cowichan - safe ndp seat.
34. saanich-gulf islands - conservative hold.
35. vancouver island north - ndp gain as enough liberal voters start seeing orange.
36. victoria - fairly easy pickup for the popular ndp candidate.


From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 12 January 2006 12:28 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This should be in the election 2006 forum, so I'm moving it there.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 12 January 2006 12:40 AM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
ack! a crippling blow to the saskatchewan, bc, alberta ghetto! and we were so happy in the shadows!
From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
blacklisted
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posted 12 January 2006 01:58 AM      Profile for blacklisted     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
well the local conservative candidate decided to get a new car and a few beers to celebrate his new job,a little early. slipped his mind that he was across the border when he shopped.
http://tinyurl.com/a3y5w
a culture of entitlement, i think the ads said,no?

From: nelson,bc | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 12 January 2006 03:04 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh, I was hoping that was another Tory candidate. Sure one is nice, but can't they have more facing criminal charges?

Oh yeah, PS: Michelle, this move makes us sad. It encourages Western Alienation.

[ 12 January 2006: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 12 January 2006 03:36 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Van Centre Stuff:

quote:
Right now, there's two important dates in Vancouver Centre federal Conservative candidate Tony Fogarassy's calendar. The first is January 23 - election day. And the second is April 26 - when the prominent oil and gas lawyer is scheduled to speak about "Pacific Offshore Oil & Gas: Present Status and How to Move Forward" at the fourth annual Pacific Canada Oil and Gas Development Forum.

...

But one wonders how the latte sippers living in Mr. Fogarassy's riding would feel about drilling platforms in the Hecate Straight.


Public Eye Online


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 12 January 2006 03:43 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
New Westminster-Coquitlam News:

quote:
A tight race is shaping up in New Westminster-Coquitlam and Liberal candidate Joyce Murray says her party's latest poll shows her slightly ahead of NDP and Conservative candidates.

Murray, former BC Minister of Water, Land and Air Protection from 2001 to 2004, is running as a green candidate and champion of sustainability with endorsements and colleagues, but some environmental watchdogs say it's false branding, considering her record as environment minister for the BC Liberal Party.


http://thetyee.ca/News/2006/01/10/EcoCandidateBC/


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Kim Smith
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posted 12 January 2006 03:43 AM      Profile for Kim Smith        Edit/Delete Post
We have all read how the pollsters are finding it more and more difficult to get willing respondents, with more cells, call display, answering devices, etc., and just plain resistance. We all know that the quality of their data is not improving, to say the least. And we also know that even though voter turnout in Canada is falling to levels approaching that in the US, Canadian pollsters are still too lazy, too cheap and too amateurish to screen their samples for likely voters.

And yet, ... and yet, ... we must consume the polls, all of the polls, even when the contradict each other wildly, to the point where none have any credibility whatsoever. For if we don't believe and use the poll data, what raw material will we have for the overly ambitious seat projection models, based on thoroughly naive and mechanical assumptions that can never be tested except on election night, when it's too late! And if we don't use the largley phoney seat projection models, what kind of "data" will we have to use when doing strategic voting pitches to swing voters?

Such is political life in the age of the internet and information. As the quality of the polling data and the derived seat estimates goes down, the attention paid to it goes up. Why?


From: Vancouver Westside | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 12 January 2006 04:31 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think this is one good angle for fighting off the Cons in BC:

"Trail Mix: Tories disagree on natives"

quote:
John Cummins/Phil Eidsvik: Cummins, the Conservative MP from Delta-Richmond East has spent much of his twelve years in Ottawa fighting against native fisheries. Eidsvik, former head of the Fisheries Survival Coalition, is running next door in Newton-North Delta. The Straight ran a good wrap up of the fish issue and the Conservative candidates involved before Christmas.

B.C. is also home to a number of would-be Tory MPs openly critical of the treaty process. Mike Scott, the former Reform MP from Skeena-Bulkely valley, is running again in the riding and John Weston is trying to replace John Reynolds in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast. Both men openly opposed the Nisga’a treaty both in the press and in the courts.


Apologies if this was posted elsewhere on this thread. This article is a very good read and could help in fighting the Cons.


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 12 January 2006 04:35 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And this is interesting too:

"Mulroney locks down key demographic"

quote:
The battle to succeed David Anderson in Victoria is all about demographics. To win the city, you have to win the students, the civil servants and the raging grannies. But Liberal David Mulroney has already locked down one of the key groups in the riding: past presidents of the University of Victoria Young Liberals.

Three of the seven testimonials on Mulroney’s site are from past presidents of what Public Eye’s Sean Holman calls the Liberal Mafia, the organization that gave us David Basi, Erik Bornman and Bob Virk, the key players in the raid on the B.C. Legislature.

Shockingly, past presidents Ivan Watson, Lorne Phipps and Joshua Christensen are unanimous in their praise for Mulroney.



From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 12 January 2006 05:12 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Skeena-Bulkley Valley:

"Tory, NDP Prince Rupert candidates are in a tight race"


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 12 January 2006 09:44 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I would imagine that one thing that will help the NDP big time in Skeena is the implosion of the Liberal vote. Last election, it was more of a three way race as the Liberals ran a high profile Nisga'a chief. Now the Liberals are running a nobody and you have to figure that the Nisga'a vote will swing en masse to the NDP against a nTory whose biggest claimk to fame is opposition to the Nisga'a treaty!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 12 January 2006 09:59 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Prince George Peace River does not have to go solidly Conservative. If the NDP would have focused strongly on Mackenzie, which is actually the vote decider, for the most part, they may have been able to take it from the creepy Jay Hill. Gawd how I dislike that man, as Mackenzie holds their nose and votes for him because other candidates usually ignore them and they have a needy disposition and loved to be focused upon.

Nor do I believe that Dr Martin has a firm hold on Esquimalt Juan de Fucca, the same fellow for the NDP is running, Randall Garrison. And he only lost by 1200 and that was because of vote splitting on the left and Randall was basically a new name to the scene. They spend a little time in the western communties pushing Randall and he could easily get it. Sooke is key there.

If Nanaimo Port Alberni could get some public proof that the Conservatives in that area are backed by those who rabibly think Canada has no moral reason to exist Port Alberni could sway the heavily American influenced Qualicum Parksville that seem to be the deciders. North Naniamo could be convinced to go NDP if the correct message is put out IMO.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Michael Watkins
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posted 12 January 2006 12:13 PM      Profile for Michael Watkins   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Esquimalt may well shift NDP thanks to that disasterous Lib military ad.

The race has probably tightened up somewhat in Vancouver Kingsway but I think Emerson will still eek through, but look to him to fudge a big mistake at next week's all candidate's meeting if he decides he doesn't want to sit in opposition. If Harper looks to be poised for a majority, not a minority, I can't imagine Emerson sitting on the funny benches for 4-5 years. Waddell however would be perfectly comfortable there, since that's all he can ever expect in his lifetime.

Van South - Dosanjh in a walk.
Van Centre - Lib or NDP but I think Fry will hold it; Fogarassy is a non issue.
New West - tending to think it will go NDP from CPC.
Van Quadra - its possible that Owen will lose this time around but my read on the area is not very good any more.


From: Vancouver Kingway - Democracy In Peril | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
island empire
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posted 12 January 2006 04:39 PM      Profile for island empire     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
actually, i'm going to switch my prediction on newton-north delta to eidvik and the cons. unfortunately, my gut tells me they'll take it.
From: montréal, canada | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 12 January 2006 07:53 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Quadra was a pretty strong Liberal win last time for Stephen Owen, and let's not forget that John Turner won it in 1984 as the only Liberal west of Ontario. Stephen Rogers, the Conservative, had an unexpected gaffe by mailing out voting info that was incorrect to about 45,000 households in the riding (according to the Vancouver Courier). Intrestingly in the northern portion of the riding it seems like David Askew of the NDP is winning the sign war, although that contains "champaign socialist" areas like Point Grey, and Kitsilano which is always somewhat NDP friendly. Of course the NDP stands no chance because the riding also includes Marpole, Southlands, Kerrisdale etc. But if the NDP can get up to about 10-12K votes then maybe that'll probably mean that Rogers will go up in votes too as it'll mean that people are swining away from the Liberals.

I'm begging to think that Vancouver-Kingsway will go to Waddell and the NDP by default if the Liberals don't recover. The Cons are running a much stronger candidate this time, who still stands no chance of winning, but should hurt Emerson.

Unfortunatley, or rather fortunatley, Dosanjh will win again. But if the Libs don't he won't appreciate sitting on the opposition benches, heck he didn't even seem to care that much when he got beaten, badly, as Premier.

I don't know about that poll for Vancouver Centre showing Fry ahead of Robinson. Sure he has baggage, she does too, but the thing is if they're down from last time, why are the results mirroring what happened last time? I geuss I'd predict that Hedy will hold on, but it's not like she's such a star that she'd have such a personal appeal that should the Liberal vote go down to 30% nationally, she'd all the sudden hold at 42% in that riding.

And of course Libby Davies will coast to victory in Vancouver East.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
pebbles
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posted 12 January 2006 11:54 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
Quadra was a pretty strong Liberal win last time for Stephen Owen, and let's not forget that John Turner won it in 1984 as the only Liberal west of Ontario.

Isn't Manitoba west of Ontario?


From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 13 January 2006 02:12 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh, hmm...one of two.

[ 13 January 2006: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Political Junkie
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posted 13 January 2006 02:24 AM      Profile for Political Junkie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Layton just visited VI-North and his pressence breathed new life into the campaign up here. I know; I was in the room. Makes me feel confident of a win for us here.
From: BC, Canada | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 13 January 2006 02:58 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Mulroney's running a slick campaign in Victoria. He cleverly staged Larry Campbell showing up in the middle of an all-candidates debate tonight at the University of Victoria and spent the day before getting media coverage and mainstreeting at a very busy Club Days at Uvic. He's picked his issues carefully using questionable sewage treatment plant promises to reach out to the substantial green vote and started off the all-candidates debate with a dramatic rags to riches life story. He's also great at spinning the yarn about how much he cares about the progressive issues and is a much better public speaker than Denise Savoie. Unfortunately for the NDP, the Conservative is a non-starter and the Greens shoudl get at least 8% of the vote.

Translation: Don't assume this will go NDP- it will be close!


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 13 January 2006 03:41 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I heard he was a horrible public speaker, and someone said he was like a deer caught in the headlights when speaking about the issues. I suppose this is all an issue of optics though, and people will have diffrent views on the subject. But I would agree that the riding will be close, as it was for the Municipal elections, of which the centre-right ended out on top, after a major swing to the centre-left provincially. So Savoie and the NDP defenetly shouldn't be taking this riding for granted. Also, does anyone know why he switched ridings? Does he live in Victoria, or Saanich-Gulf Islands? I know that's usually not that big of a deal, but I don't know what that's all about.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 13 January 2006 09:57 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
With Liberal support across the country going into a total meltdown, it is hard to see how the Liberals can hang on to ANY seat that they won by a very narrow margin in 2004. In Victoria, the Liberals had a popular cabinet minister running (Anderson) and a rather weak NDP candidate in 2004. Now with Anderson gone and the Liberals in freefall, I'd be more concerned about the Tory in Victoria than Liberal deadmeat.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 13 January 2006 10:16 AM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Svend now has an official website page entitled The Ring that clears the air about that situation.
From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 13 January 2006 11:41 AM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Tiger:
Svend now has an official website page entitled The Ring that clears the air about that situation.

quote:
I also gave the judge letters from Liberal Cabinet Minister Stephen Owen, Liberal Senators Mobina Jaffer and Jerry Grafstein, and Conservative Deputy Leader Peter MacKay.

If nothing else, Svend deserves our praise for having faith and confidence in a letter from Peter MacKay. Not many people would forgive him for his previous mistakes and trust his word again. I mean Peter, not Svend.


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Tiger
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posted 13 January 2006 05:49 PM      Profile for West Coast Tiger     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Guilt by association

quote:
Blair Wilson is in the running for something. It isn't the Olympics. But that didn't stop the West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country Liberal candidate's campaign from putting a picture of Mr. Wilson, standing behind a bobsled prominently featuring the 2010 Winter Olympics logo, on the the back page of his campaign brochure. And, according to Renee Smith-Valade, communications vice-president for the Vancouver Organizing Committee for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, that's a no-no.

There's a little more to read.


From: I never was and never will be a Conservative | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Pogo
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posted 13 January 2006 05:56 PM      Profile for Pogo   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Darrell Reid is going to win in Richmond. Richmond has been waiting patiently for the Conservatives to nominate someone decent so they can get rid of Raymond Chan and his slimy ways. Darrell isn't decent any way you choose to define it, but he has run a vigorous campaign and the national Liberal campaign has pulled the rug out from under Raymond.
From: Richmond BC | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Rufus Polson
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posted 13 January 2006 06:13 PM      Profile for Rufus Polson     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michael Watkins:

Van Centre - Lib or NDP but I think Fry will hold it; Fogarassy is a non issue.

Maybe. But never count Svend Robinson out. Yeah, I know, ring, ring, radical, and all that. But while what everyone thinks about Svend is that he's an outspoken radical, what people often forget is that he wins elections. It's not a simple thing for a dipper to have been one of the longest serving MPs in the House. What I hear is, the man knows how to campaign.


From: Caithnard College | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michael Watkins
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posted 13 January 2006 06:22 PM      Profile for Michael Watkins   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rufus Polson:
What I hear is, the man knows how to campaign.

I'm sure he does. And you know what, I think you might be right -- the situation feels a little different today. As the Liberal campaign appears to buckle a little more under its own weight, Sven is probably best positioned to win, sneaking up the middle as some of Fry's votes are siphoned off to Fogarassy.


From: Vancouver Kingway - Democracy In Peril | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Michael Watkins
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posted 13 January 2006 06:25 PM      Profile for Michael Watkins   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by RealityBites:
If nothing else, Svend deserves our praise for having faith and confidence in a letter from Peter MacKay.

I wonder if Peter has dumped that Desmarais chick for Sven?


From: Vancouver Kingway - Democracy In Peril | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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Babbler # 6718

posted 13 January 2006 06:26 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michael Watkins:

I wonder if Peter has dumped that Desmarais chick for Sven?


Don't be stupid.

Svend isn't blond.


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
candle
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posted 13 January 2006 06:27 PM      Profile for candle     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Pogo:
Darrell Reid is going to win in Richmond. Richmond has been waiting patiently for the Conservatives to nominate someone decent so they can get rid of Raymond Chan and his slimy ways. Darrell isn't decent any way you choose to define it, but he has run a vigorous campaign and the national Liberal campaign has pulled the rug out from under Raymond.

Yesterday's Globe featured 5 BC ridings to watch. Richmond was one of them. Apparently Reid isn't allowed to talk to the national media - he refused to answer any questions


From: Ontario | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged

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