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Author Topic: Province Level Results - A Historical Comparison.
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 21 June 2004 05:10 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I couldn't find the provincial vote breakdown for '93 and '97, but here's a look at the results from the 80's elections in the west, with the NDP at it's peak.

BC
1988
NDP - 37%, 19 seats
PC - 34%, 12 seats
Lib - 21%, 1 seat
Other - 7%

1984
PC - 47%, 19 seats
NDP - 35%, 8 seats
Lib - 16%, 1 seat

1980
PC - 41%, 16 seats
NDP - 35% - 12 seats
Lib - 22% - 0 seats

Alberta

1988
PC - 52%, 25 seats
NDP - 17%, 1 seat
Lib - 14%, 0 seat
Other - 17% (Reform, mostly)

1984
PC - 69%, 21 seats
NDP - 14%, 0 seats
Lib - 13%, 0 seats

1980
PC - 65%, 21 seats
Lib - 22%, 0 seats
NDP - 10%, 0 seats

Saskatchewan

1988
NDP - 44%, 10 seats
PC - 36%, 4 seats
Lib - 18%, 0 seats

1984
PC - 42%, 9 seats
NDP - 38%, 5 seats
Lib - 18%, 0 seats

1980
PC - 39%, 7 seats
NDP - 36%, 7 seats
Lib - 24%, 0 seats

Manitoba

1988
PC - 37%, 7 seats
Lib - 36%, 5 seats
NDP - 21%, 2 seats

1984
PC - 43%, 9 seats
NDP - 27%, 4 seats
Libs - 22%, 1 seat

1980
PC - 36%, 5 seats
NDP - 33%, 5 seats
Lib - 28%, 2 seats

Notice how the NDP vote in BC was remarkable consistent (35%, 35%, 37%) but the party went from 12 seats to 8 seats to 19 seats, depending on other parties. In Alberta, there is a consistent rise in NDP vote up to 17% in 1988. In Saskatchewan, the party gained votes and lost seats between 1980 and 1984 (36% and 7, 38% and 5) and surprisingly declined throughout the decade in Manitoba.
Also notice how ineffective the Liberal vote is below a certain level, depending on strategic voting which was clearly in use against the party throughout the decade.

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Krago
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posted 21 June 2004 05:31 PM      Profile for Krago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
B.C.
2000
PC -- 117,614 votes -- 7% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 446,624 votes -- 28% -- 5 seats
NDP -- 182,993 votes -- 11% -- 2 seats
CA -- 797,518 votes -- 49% -- 27 seats
Oth -- 69,972 votes -- 4% -- 0 seats

1997
PC -- 94,550 votes -- 6% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 438,769 votes -- 29% -- 6 seats
NDP -- 277,006 votes -- 18% -- 3 seats
Ref -- 655,699 votes -- 43% -- 25 seats
Oth -- 56,500 votes -- 4% -- 0 seats

1993
PC -- 219,838 votes -- 13% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 458,802 votes -- 28% -- 6 seats
NDP -- 252,257 votes -- 15% -- 2 seats
Ref -- 593,599 votes -- 36% -- 24 seats
Oth -- 107,498 votes -- 7% -- 0 seats


Alberta
2000
PC -- 169,093 votes -- 13% -- 1 seat
Lib -- 263,008 votes -- 21% -- 2 seats
NDP -- 68,363 votes -- 5% -- 0 seats
CA -- 739,514 votes -- 59% -- 23 seats
Oth -- 16,021 votes -- 1% -- 0 seats

1997
PC -- 152,309 votes -- 14% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 253,983 votes -- 24% -- 2 seats
NDP -- 60,633 votes -- 6% -- 0 seats
Ref -- 577,551 votes -- 55% -- 24 seats
Oth -- 12,444 votes -- 1% -- 0 seats

1993
PC -- 175,556 votes -- 15% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 301,774 votes -- 25% -- 4 seats
NDP -- 49,097 votes -- 4% -- 0 seats
Ref -- 629,402 votes -- 52% -- 22 seats
Oth -- 48,000 votes -- 4% -- 0 seats


Saskatchewan
2000
PC -- 20,855 votes -- 5% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 89,697 votes -- 21% -- 2 seats
NDP -- 113,626 votes -- 26% -- 2 seats
CA -- 207,004 votes -- 48% -- 10 seats
Oth -- 2,515 votes -- 1% -- 0 seats

1997
PC -- 34,460 votes -- 8% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 109,200 votes -- 25% -- 1 seat
NDP -- 136,555 votes -- 31% -- 5 seats
Ref -- 159,332 votes -- 36% -- 8 seats
Oth -- 2,739 votes -- 1% -- 0 seats

1993
PC -- 55,197 votes -- 11% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 156,216 votes -- 32% -- 5 seats
NDP -- 129,649 votes -- 27% -- 5 seats
Ref -- 132,587 votes -- 27% -- 4 seats
Oth -- 13,223 votes -- 3% -- 0 seats


Manitoba
2000
PC -- 70,635 votes -- 14% -- 1 seat
Lib -- 158,713 votes -- 33% -- 5 seats
NDP -- 101,741 votes -- 21% -- 4 seats
CA -- 148,293 votes -- 30% -- 4 seats
Oth -- 8,450 votes -- 2% -- 0 seats

1997
PC -- 84,511 votes -- 18% -- 1 seat
Lib -- 163,226 votes -- 34% -- 6 seats
NDP -- 110,181 votes -- 23% -- 4 seats
Ref -- 112,863 votes -- 24% -- 3 seats
Oth -- 5,162 votes -- 1% -- 0 seats

1993
PC -- 64,515 votes -- 12% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 243,214 votes -- 45% -- 12 seats
NDP -- 90,091 votes -- 17% -- 1 seat
Ref -- 120,934 votes -- 22% -- 1 seat
Oth -- 22,302 votes -- 4% -- 0 seats


From: The Royal City | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 21 June 2004 05:33 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks, Krago.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 June 2004 05:44 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I would like to see the corresponding seats/votes numbers for Ontario 1980-2000
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 21 June 2004 05:49 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ontario
1988

PC - 38%, 46 seats
Lib - 39%, 43 seats
NDP - 20%, 10 seats

1984
PC - 48%, 67 seats
Lib - 30%, 14 seats
NDP - 21%, 13 seats

1980
PC - 35%, 38 seats
Lib - 42%, 52 seats
NDP - 22%, 5 seats

Perhaps Krago has the 90's figures. I don't.


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Proaxiom
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posted 21 June 2004 06:06 PM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hmmm, the recent figures I found much more easily.

Ontario

2000
PC -- 642,438 votes -- 14.4% -- 0 seats
CA -- 1,051,209 votes -- 23.6% -- 2 seats
Lib -- 2,292,075 votes -- 51.5% -- 100 seats
NDP -- 368,709 votes -- 8.3% -- 1 seat

1997
PC -- 871,616 votes -- 18.8% -- 1 seat
Ref -- 886,797 votes -- 19.1% -- 0 seats
Lib -- 2,294,593 votes -- 49.5% -- 101 seats
NDP -- 495,155 votes -- 10.7% -- 0 seats

1993
PC -- 859,596 votes -- 17.6% -- 0 seats
Ref -- 982,691 votes -- 20.1% -- 1 seat
Lib -- 2,583,065 votes -- 52.9% -- 98 seats
NDP -- 291,658 votes -- 6% -- 0 seats


Also, it would be worthwhile to compare the 1999 and 2003 provincial election results, since Ontario has been using the federal riding map in provincial elections since then.


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Tim
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posted 21 June 2004 06:07 PM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For up to 1997, the Political Database of the Americas is a good source. But they don't have the regional vote percentages for 1993, which I found at Wikipedia (presumably there are more authoritative sources, but these are probably correct!)

Elections Canada has the 1997 and 2000 results.

Finally, the Library of Parliament has national results to the beginning of time (or at least Confederation), but no regional results as far as I can tell.


From: Paris of the Prairies | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Proaxiom
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posted 21 June 2004 06:10 PM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1993-2000 results:

http://electionresources.org/ca/house.php?election=1993


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 June 2004 06:18 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It is interesting to note that in 1993, 1997 and 2000 the Reform/CA+PC vote was a perfectly consistent 38%. The Liberal was also a perfectly consistent 51/52%. All that has really happened in that the PC/CA vote has more or less united and the NDP vote has returned to 20%+. The Liberals never knew how good they had it.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Rufus Polson
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posted 21 June 2004 06:27 PM      Profile for Rufus Polson     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interesting figures.
The 80-88 ones seem more relevant than the more recent ones, actually, since NDP numbers are currently more in the ranges of 80-88 and the Conservatives have now reunited, leaving the competing groups more like the 80-88 field.

I have to say, things are looking rather good.
In BC, I notice that with a given level of NDP support, the NDP did best when the other two parties were relatively close to one another, making 3-way races. That's how things are looking here this time out, so we may expect a fair number of ridings, depending perhaps on whether the Greens end up draining significant support or not.

In Ontario on the other hand, it looks as though the consistent trend is, the worse the Liberals did, the better for the NDP. The Liberals look like doing very badly this time, and NDP support in Ontario may actually be higher than in any of the 80-88 elections. Based on that, we could beat the 13-seat tally from 1984.

Alberta (shrug).

Saskatchewan and Manitoba I don't feel qualified to comment; haven't really seen the current polls to compare.


From: Caithnard College | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Proaxiom
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posted 21 June 2004 06:38 PM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ontario provincial results:

2003
PC -- 1,559,181 votes -- 34.7% -- 24 seats
Lib -- 2,090,001 votes -- 46.5% -- 72 seats
NDP -- 660,730 votes -- 14.7% -- 7 seats

1999
PC -- 1,978,059 votes -- 45.1% -- 59 seats
Lib -- 1,751,472 votes -- 39.9% -- 35 seats
NDP -- 551,009 votes -- 12.6% -- 9 seats

Again, these use the same boundaries as the 1997 and 2000 federal elections. They may be more relevant because the numbers are [a little bit] closer to current federal polling levels.


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged

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