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Author Topic: Individual riding predictions?
Stephen Gordon
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Babbler # 4600

posted 21 June 2004 01:10 PM      Profile for Stephen Gordon        Edit/Delete Post
Anyone doing riding-by-riding predictions? I've been doing them since 1984 (the Mulroney landslide). I congratulated myself for did pretty well that year, until I realised I would have attained the same level of accuracy by simply assuming that the tories would win every seat.

It's easier now, of course. Many more poll results, and resources such as electionprediction.org.


From: . | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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Babbler # 4717

posted 21 June 2004 01:15 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I just dumped my riding-by-riding for the west and north in the seat prediction thread. What are your predictions?
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stephen Gordon
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4600

posted 21 June 2004 01:19 PM      Profile for Stephen Gordon        Edit/Delete Post
Yes, I saw that, which is why I thought it might be worth seeing if others were taking the trouble to do it as well. I was going to work on mine this week.

Hidden agenda: a babble pool?


From: . | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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Babbler # 4717

posted 21 June 2004 01:21 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, the thought of a babble pool occurred to me too.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Proaxiom
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Babbler # 6188

posted 21 June 2004 01:28 PM      Profile for Proaxiom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that site is being too generous to the Liberals in Ontario. They are saying the Liberals will hold onto almost all of Toronto except for 2 seats lost to the NDP (Layton's being one). I think it will be more.

And there are no safe Liberal seats in the 905 belt, with the possible exception of the Hamilton to St. Catharine's area. A whole bunch of predicted Liberal seats (especially in the Mississauga area) are too close to call.


From: East of the Sun, West of the Moon | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
JeffWells
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Babbler # 4761

posted 21 June 2004 01:40 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I organized an election pool for '93. First time I'd done close to a riding-by-riding prediction. I won the pool, largely because I generously guessed the Tories would win seven seats.

Even accounting for partisanship, I'm expecting wonderful news June 28 for the NDP. Polls are showing us at 26% in Ontario, with neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives running away with the province. If something like this is the picture next week, a lot of otherwise unlikely ridings come into play for us.


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
heme
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Babbler # 6074

posted 21 June 2004 02:54 PM      Profile for heme     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the NPD poll at 26% on the 28th, my guess is that they could come out with more seats then libs. This is also a benifit to the CPC as some of the NPD would allow more CPC members to overtake the libs in close ridings. Works in reverse as the CPC would allow NPD to overtake the liberals in a whole pile of ridings.
From: Canada | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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Babbler # 5089

posted 21 June 2004 03:27 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Predictions for GTA:

6 NDP:

Toronto-Danforth
Trinity Spadina
Toronto Centre
Parkdale-High Park
Beeches-East York
Davenport

3 CPC:

Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Etobicoke Lakeshore

Rest for Liberals.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Maxx
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Babbler # 4819

posted 21 June 2004 03:43 PM      Profile for Maxx     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Libs took Don Valley East with 66% of the vote in 2000, when the party was at 41% nationally. Assuming the Liberals end up with 33% nationally this election, they should get around 53% of the vote in Don Valley East.

And I just can't imagine Torontonians voting for Harper.


From: Don't blame me... I voted Liberal. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Olly
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Babbler # 3401

posted 21 June 2004 03:49 PM      Profile for Olly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Etobicoke Lakeshore

Don Valley West will hold for the Liberals. I can't see them voting out Godfrey, one of the best MPs the Liberals have for a recycled provincial cabinet minister they just booted out.

I agree with Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Don Valley East will be close.


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Polunatic
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posted 21 June 2004 03:55 PM      Profile for Polunatic   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Such short memories. I hope you're wrong. The two Don Valleys are being challenged by Harris Tory has-beens David Turnbull and David "prince of darkness" Johnson.
From: middle of nowhere | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Olly
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posted 21 June 2004 03:56 PM      Profile for Olly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
David "prince of darkness" Johnson.

Isn't it David "we need to create a crisis in the education system" Johnson?


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
charlessumner
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Babbler # 2914

posted 21 June 2004 04:04 PM      Profile for charlessumner     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That was John "the Hon. Member for Oklahoma" Snobelen.

Johnson was dispatched sent Education to not-quite-clean-up his mess; with redistribution in '99, he was pitted against David "the Not-So-Prodigal Son" Caplan, a race arguably dominated by the sustained intervention of teacher's unions on behalf of Caplan.


From: closer everyday | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 21 June 2004 04:05 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I see DV West going CPC before DV East, as it tends to be the Torier of the two seats. DV East is somewhat less wealthy and has more tenants. The Conservatives might also be able to win seats like Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough Southwest and Etobicoke Centre, though these are definitely more iffy.
From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Polunatic
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posted 21 June 2004 04:07 PM      Profile for Polunatic   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Don't shoot the messenger but I think Liberal Carolyn Bennett will retake my riding of St. Pauls. Saving grace? I'm wrong more often than I'm right.
From: middle of nowhere | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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Babbler # 44

posted 21 June 2004 04:16 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Non-partisan partisan:
Don't shoot the messenger but I think Liberal Carolyn Bennett will retake my riding of St. Pauls. Saving grace? I'm wrong more often than I'm right.

Nah...the NDP can win with the campaign slogan: Vote NDP and Norm Tobias won't show up at your door at 3 in the morning.


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
charlessumner
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Babbler # 2914

posted 21 June 2004 04:30 PM      Profile for charlessumner     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Scarborough Southwest is the only 416 riding in which a third-place Liberal finish is a not-quite-outside chance.

On the other side, even if the Liberal Party is reduced to a Charest-Waynesian rump, this time around it would be hard not to see it including Judy Sgro in York West, Ken Dryden in York Centre (both should be NDP targets, but for riding-level resource issues) and Carolyn Bennett in St. Paul's.

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: charlessumner ]


From: closer everyday | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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Babbler # 3052

posted 21 June 2004 04:42 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by charlessumner:
Scarborough Southwest is the only 416 riding in which a third-place Liberal finish is a not-quite-outside chance.
Maybe there's an outside shot at 3rd place for the Liberals in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
charlessumner
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posted 21 June 2004 04:51 PM      Profile for charlessumner     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That's also very true. Probably as good and maybe a slight bit better confluence of strong NDP and Conservative bases and ground campaigns than SSW, come to think…
From: closer everyday | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Erik Pool
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Babbler # 6137

posted 21 June 2004 05:00 PM      Profile for Erik Pool     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Maxx:
And I just can't imagine Torontonians voting for Harper.


Neither can I, Maxx. The GTA-905 region is going to be the stopping ground for the Harper Tories.

One theory I heard, a bit lame, was that the Conservatives brought up the child pornography issue because they think that, in the wake of the Holly Jones case anc confession, that this 'wedge issue" will let them suddenly break out and sweep a ton of suburban GTA-905 ridings where the margin between Liberals and Conservatives (NDP a zero factor in the burbs) is close on all other issues, and one party or the other needs to find a "clincher".

These dumbell "Martin supports kiddie porn" press releases was the Conservative machine's attempt to find that clincher.


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Olly
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Babbler # 3401

posted 21 June 2004 05:12 PM      Profile for Olly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Johnson was dispatched sent Education to not-quite-clean-up his mess; with redistribution in '99, he was pitted against David "the Not-So-Prodigal Son" Caplan, a race arguably dominated by the sustained intervention of teacher's unions on behalf of Caplan.

Ah, yes. I stand corrected.


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Liberaler
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Babbler # 5674

posted 21 June 2004 06:33 PM      Profile for Liberaler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by NDP Newbie:
Predictions for GTA:

6 NDP:

Toronto-Danforth
Trinity Spadina
Toronto Centre
Parkdale-High Park
Beeches-East York
Davenport

3 CPC:

Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Etobicoke Lakeshore

Rest for Liberals.


I am sorry to burst your bubble but Davenport will be going to Mario Silva.


From: Toronto Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 21 June 2004 06:38 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does that mean you concede the other 5?

If a hateful pig like Tom Wappel can be flushed down the toilet on election night, i could even live with a Tory in SSW.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 21 June 2004 06:44 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Looks like the NDP could just about do a clean sweep of ridings with the word "centre" in thier names. Think about it...

Winnipeg Centre
Vancouver Centre
Hamilton Centre
Ottawa Centre
Toronto Centre

All either sure things or poetntial upsets.

All we need is to take Edmonton Centre (fat chance) and we will have the complete collection. Gee this is like collecting Royal Copenhagen porcelain!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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Babbler # 3052

posted 21 June 2004 06:47 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
But not:

Etobicoke-Centre
Scarborough-Centre
York Centre


From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 21 June 2004 06:54 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
party-pooper! Well those seats don't count since they are actually suburban seats with "centre" in their names. I mean ridings that are actually the centres of their respective cities. i guess we could throw in Halifax and Windsor West for good measure.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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Babbler # 3446

posted 21 June 2004 08:57 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's a great article that indicates a possible NDP gain in West Nova:
http://www.herald.ns.ca/stories/2004/06/21/fNovaScotia111.raw.html

great quote:
"The only one we haven't tried yet is the NDP, and I think that's the only alternative we have," he says.(a lobster fisher)

Says NDP candidate Art Bull:
"Someone told me you can be born Liberal or born Tory, but you have to decide to be an NDPer," says Mr. Bull, who lives in Digby Neck.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mel Skiller
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Babbler # 5448

posted 21 June 2004 10:32 PM      Profile for Mel Skiller     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Don't tell anybody, but Art Bull was raised in Toronto. That sort of news could sink him out East.

Oh, by the way Liberaler, where were the Liberal scrutineers in Davenport today? Not one showed up at any advance poll. What happend? Too much herding the vote on the weekend?

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Mel Skiller ]

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Mel Skiller ]


From: toronto | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged

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