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Author Topic: Cabinet Ministers in trouble?
Mycroft_
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 2230

posted 20 June 2004 04:56 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So who is in danger of losing their seats?

Here is the current cabinet:

quote:
Portfolio Minister
Prime Minister of Canada Rt. Hon. Paul Martin
Deputy Prime Minister of Canada Hon. Anne McLellan
Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Hon. Bob Speller
Minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency Hon. Joe McGuire
Minister of Canadian Heritage Hon. Hélène Scherrer
Minister of Citizenship and Immigration Hon. Judy Sgro
Minister of the Environment Hon. David Anderson
Minister of Finance Hon. Ralph Goodale
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Hon. Geoff Regan
Minister of Foreign Affairs Hon. Bill Graham
Minister of Health Hon. Pierre Pettigrew
Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Hon. Joe Volpe
Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development Hon. Andy Mitchell
Minister of Industry Hon. Lucienne Robillard
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Hon. Pierre Pettigrew
Minister for International Cooperation Hon. Aileen Carroll
Minister of International Trade Hon. Jim Peterson
Minister of Justice and Attorney General Hon. Irwin Cotler
Minister of Labour Hon. Claudette Bradshaw
Leader of the Government in the House of Commons Hon. Jacques Saada
Leader of the Government in the Senate Hon. Jack Austin
Minister of National Defence Hon. David Pratt
Minister of National Revenue Hon. Stan Keyes
Minister of Natural Resources Hon. John Efford
Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Hon. Anne McLellan
Minister of Public Works and Government Services Hon. Stephen Owen
President of the Queen's Privy Council for Canada Hon. Denis Coderre
Minister of Social Development Hon. Liza Frulla
Minister of Transport Hon. Tony Valeri
President of the Treasury Board Hon. Reg Alcock
Minister of Veterans Affairs Hon. John McCallum
Minister of Western Economic Diversification Hon. Rey Pagtakhan
Minister of State and Deputy Leader of the Government in the House of Commons Hon. Mauril Bélanger
Minister of State (Children and Youth) Hon. Ethel Blondin-Andrew )
Minister of State (Civil Preparedness)
      and Associate Minister of National Defence Hon. Albina Guarnieri
Minister of State (FEDINO) Hon. Joe Comuzzi
Minister of State (Financial Institutions) Hon. Denis Paradis
Minister of State (Infrastructure) Hon. Andy Scott
Minister of State (Multiculturalism and Status of Women) Hon. Jean Augustine
Minister of State (New and Emerging Markets) Hon. Gar Knutson
Minister of State (Public Health) Hon. Carolyn Bennett
Minister of State (Sport) Hon. Stan Keyes

My pick to take a fall:
Anne McLellan
Dave Anderson
Geoff Regan
Jim Peterson
Tony Valeri
John McCallum
Albina Guarnieri
Jean Augustine

[ 20 June 2004: Message edited by: Mycroft ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
steam.machine
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Babbler # 4916

posted 20 June 2004 06:30 AM      Profile for steam.machine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Word is that Valeri and Keyes are in trouble in Hamilton. And "Landslide Annie" and David Kilgour are in for tough fights in Edmonton.
From: Calgary | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 20 June 2004 08:39 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Vicious homophobe Helene Scherrer is dead meat as well.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
Moderator
Babbler # 560

posted 20 June 2004 09:07 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I will get special satisfaction out of watching Valeri lose.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Gearhead
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Babbler # 5182

posted 20 June 2004 10:38 AM      Profile for Gearhead        Edit/Delete Post
Anne McLellan will lose. This is not a good thing since Alberta needs fewer Cons in office. But hey, maybe this will galvanize the left? Maybe?

Frankly, I find her unprincipled on health care, environment, and defence. Why didn't she take Klein to the cleaners on Bill 11? Why does she want to weaponize space? Why doesn't she insist on environmental impact studies on the Cheviot mine near Jasper?


From: Edmonton | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5089

posted 20 June 2004 11:25 AM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Vicious homophobe Helene Scherrer is dead meat as well.

Yep. Am I the only one here who would vote Bloc Québécois in that riding?


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Shane
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Babbler # 4328

posted 20 June 2004 12:10 PM      Profile for Shane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The following Paul Martin Cabinet Ministers will be defeated on June 28:

Hon. Bob Speller
Hon. Hélène Scherrer
Hon. David Anderson
Hon. Ralph Goodale (*Bold Prediction*)
Hon. Andy Mitchell
Hon. Aileen Carroll
Hon. Jacques Saada
Hon. David Pratt
Hon. Anne McLellan
Hon. Stephen Owen
Hon. Tony Valeri
Hon. Rey Pagtakhan
Hon. Andy Scott
Hon. Jean Augustine
Hon. Gar Knutson
Hon. Stan Keyes
Hon. John McCallum
Hon. Geoff Regan

[ 20 June 2004: Message edited by: Shane ]


From: Ontario | Registered: Aug 2003  |  IP: Logged
Northern54
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5325

posted 20 June 2004 12:22 PM      Profile for Northern54     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ethel-Blondin Andrew is in a tight race here in the Western Arctic. At this stage, I won't predict that she'll lose but I won't predict that she will win either.
From: Yellowknife | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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Babbler # 3697

posted 20 June 2004 08:07 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Hon. Bob Speller
Hon. Hélène Scherrer
Hon. David Anderson
Hon. Ralph Goodale (*Bold Prediction*)
Hon. Andy Mitchell
Hon. Aileen Carroll
Hon. Jacques Saada
Hon. David Pratt
Hon. Anne McLellan
Hon. Stephen Owen
Hon. Tony Valeri
Hon. Rey Pagtakhan
Hon. Andy Scott
Hon. Jean Augustine
Hon. Gar Knutson
Hon. Stan Keyes
Hon. John McCallum
Hon. Geoff Regan

Goodale and Owen will hang on, but Anderson is definitely gone From another babble thread, it appears that Bill Graham in Toronto Centre may lose his seat to the NDP candidate.


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
heme
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Babbler # 6074

posted 20 June 2004 08:14 PM      Profile for heme     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Gooddale is in trouble, the cpc has sent in some heavy weights into the riding which usally means the sitting member is in trouble.

Also Judy Sgro is in a fight of he live in a 3 way race. Should be intersting watching that one.


From: Canada | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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Babbler # 5758

posted 20 June 2004 08:45 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Also Judy Sgro is in a fight of he live in a 3 way race. Should be intersting watching that one.

What 3 way race are you talking about? At most it would be a two way race between Sgro and the NDP candidate.


From: Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rev. Phoenix
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5140

posted 20 June 2004 08:47 PM      Profile for Rev. Phoenix     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by NDP Newbie:

Yep. Am I the only one here who would vote Bloc Québécois in that riding?


I'd never vote for traitors to Canada, no matter what their policies.


From: Bradford | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Big Willy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5451

posted 20 June 2004 08:58 PM      Profile for Big Willy        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Shane:
The following Paul Martin Cabinet Ministers will be defeated on June 28:

Hon. Bob Speller
Hon. Hélène Scherrer
Hon. David Anderson
Hon. Ralph Goodale (*Bold Prediction*)
Hon. Andy Mitchell
Hon. Aileen Carroll
Hon. Jacques Saada
Hon. David Pratt
Hon. Anne McLellan
Hon. Stephen Owen
Hon. Tony Valeri
Hon. Rey Pagtakhan
Hon. Andy Scott
Hon. Jean Augustine
Hon. Gar Knutson
Hon. Stan Keyes
Hon. John McCallum
Hon. Geoff Regan

[ 20 June 2004: Message edited by: Shane ]



Now I must say that Ralph Goodale will win, I think that Anne McLellan will also win. I would also not count Rey Pagtakhan out, Judy W-L was on a local talk radio show and did pretty poorly, she was overly aggressive (like always) and just came off as a bit of a hot head.


From: The West | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
lagatta
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Babbler # 2534

posted 20 June 2004 09:02 PM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A lot of folks here would see centralists as traitors to Québec. I wish there could be some modicum of understanding of the national question and respect for our rights to self-determination. We have every right to form an independent country if we so choose. and it isn't treason to anyone or anything.

I don't think most Québécois these days, not even most Bloc supporters, are really interested in independence. It sure isn't high on my list of priorities, to put it mildly! But hearing Great Nation Chauvinist remarks like the Rev's above would sure rankle up the embers of national passion among many a Québécois I know - including some NDP candidates.

Unless Rev's post was simply a rehearsal for his expressed interest for the hobby of "plotting world domination", in his profile?

[ 20 June 2004: Message edited by: lagatta ]


From: Se non ora, quando? | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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Babbler # 3446

posted 20 June 2004 09:03 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Pagtakhan is toast, but McLellan and Goodale have a fighting chance...we won't know their fate until the polls close. Rumours are increasing around Halifax, verifying Regan's impending defeat.
From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Big Willy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5451

posted 20 June 2004 09:09 PM      Profile for Big Willy        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Privateer:
Pagtakhan is toast, but McLellan and Goodale have a fighting chance...we won't know their fate until the polls close. Rumours are increasing around Halifax, verifying Regan's impending defeat.

Rey has the backing of his own Filipino community, which is a big part of the vote in Winnipeg North, he has high name recognition, a proven campaign team that is one of the most efficient that I have ever seen operate. It should be noted that in 1993 many people predicated that he would loess to Judy, that did not happen then and it likely wont now.


From: The West | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 20 June 2004 11:45 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In 1993, the national NDP popular vote was 7% and the Liberals were winning the election in a landslide. Now the NDP is at 20% and the Liberals are at 29%. Under those circumstances there is no way that Pagtakhan can win. The proportion of voters in that riding who are Filipino is very exagerrated.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
candle
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Babbler # 3103

posted 20 June 2004 11:48 PM      Profile for candle     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by heme:
Also Judy Sgro is in a fight of he live in a 3 way race. Should be intersting watching that one.

Going from 78% to under 33% wouild be one hell of an accomplishment for Sgro. Somehow I find this hard to believe.

Any idea why Milton Chan would have put Halifax West from Too Close to Call to Regan winning today.


From: Ontario | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Big Willy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5451

posted 20 June 2004 11:59 PM      Profile for Big Willy        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
In 1993, the national NDP popular vote was 7% and the Liberals were winning the election in a landslide. Now the NDP is at 20% and the Liberals are at 29%. Under those circumstances there is no way that Pagtakhan can win. The proportion of voters in that riding who are Filipino is very exagerrated.

Buddy, do you know anything about Winnipeg North? This is Judy v. Rey not NDP v. Liberal. Old numbers, new numbers, mean nothing this is about local issues. The poor, elderly, and immigrant population of Winnipeg North does not care about national leadership and issues, they care about who has delivered the bacon home from Ottawa and since 1988 Rey is the man who has done that for the North End of Winnipeg. One of the most recent accomplishments of his was getting federal funding for a wellness center in the closed North End YMHA, which will be re-opened and is right across the street from Judy’s constituency office. Now that the vacant building on one side of the street is going to be filled, let’s hope that the only thing that needs to be done is to find a filler for Judy’s soon to be vacant office. It will be close but don’t count ether of them out just yet, Winnipeg North is an odd area.


From: The West | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sean Tisdall
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Babbler # 3465

posted 21 June 2004 12:13 AM      Profile for Sean Tisdall   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, of course Landslide Annie is doomed, I'm running against her!
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Dimension XY | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 21 June 2004 12:29 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Buddy, do you know anything about Winnipeg North? This is Judy v. Rey not NDP v. Liberal. Old numbers, new numbers, mean nothing this is about local issues. The poor, elderly, and immigrant population of Winnipeg North does not care about national leadership and issues, they care about who has delivered the bacon home from Ottawa and since 1988 Rey is the man who has done that for the North End of Winnipeg.

What's to know? Its an urban riding like any other where the vast majority vote according to national trends. It is common knowledge that the strongest local candidate (apart from a party leader or other such larger than life figure) will only add about 500 votes to the total for the party. 80% of that riding is Judy W-L's old turf and only about 20% was Paghtakan's so for the vast majority she is the incumbent and he is a parachute candidate. He is also as old of the hills, obviously in early stage Alzheinmer's Disease and is an anti-abortion fanatic - political euthanasia is clearly in order.

In any case, the only pitch these Liberal opportunists ever had was "vote for us because we will be the government and if you elect opposition MPs your raods will never be paved". Well it now seems unlikely that the Liberals will even form a government so that argument has gone out the window. Look for Judy W-L to win by about 7,000 votes.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Sine Ziegler
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Babbler # 225

posted 21 June 2004 12:36 AM      Profile for Sine Ziegler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What party are you running for Sean??
From: Calgary | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sine Ziegler
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 225

posted 21 June 2004 12:43 AM      Profile for Sine Ziegler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ah after a little googling, I found a link showing you are running for the "PC" party.

PC Party Candidate running in Edm Centre

Good Luck.


From: Calgary | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3446

posted 21 June 2004 01:02 AM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by candle:

Any idea why Milton Chan would have put Halifax West from Too Close to Call to Regan winning today.

Who knows? In another thread, I talked about how he going to have a low accuracy rate this time. His project has a hard time with the kind of vast changes that are happening right now.

He also isn't able to see Liberals in trouble in Cape Breton-Canso, Charlottetown, Random-Burin-St. Georges, Davenport, Scarborough SW, Toronto Centre, Hamilton Mountain, Kenora, etc., etc.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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Babbler # 3138

posted 21 June 2004 01:07 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Any idea why Milton Chan would have put Halifax West from Too Close to Call to Regan winning today.

Wishful thinking on his part.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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Babbler # 2230

posted 21 June 2004 01:28 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My prediction is that the Election Prediction Project will have a poor showing when the counting is done. Milton's already giving the Liberals 93 seats (compared to 66 for the Tories, 15 for the NDP, 31 for the BQ and103 "too close to call) even though by some counts 93 might be an optimistic number. That he still has the Tories 30 seats behind the Liberals at this late stage demonstrates Milton's reluctance to concede any Liberal losses.

His Quebec predictions are a joke, he has the BQ with 31 seats and the Liberals with 24 (with 20 "too close). 24 seats in Quebec for the Liberals seems quite optimistic to me.

[ 21 June 2004: Message edited by: Mycroft ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 2735

posted 21 June 2004 07:20 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re... Winnipeg North. The Liberals were looking to pick up extra seats in the West pre-election, so Rey decided to move over to Winnipeg North. Why? Because he is old and doesn't care if he loses, and because the Liberals would have incumbency advantage in a safe NDP seat while freeing up the Kildonan riding for a new candidate. According to the 2001 census, the filipino community is 18% of the total riding population of 79,000. Do you think that the filipino community, which is mostly newer immigrants, has the same voter turnout as the much more settled predominantly British and eastern European population that votes NDP every election? No, of course not. Judy W-L will win easily and Rey P will either retire and pass away or be given a token patronage appointment like Sophia Leung.

Re... Stephen Owen. He's still safe in Vancouver-Quadra, even though the NDP vote in the riding is way up over last election's numbers. The NDP candidate, David Askew, is popular in the riding but this riding is too wealthy to go NDP. Like Van South, the NDP has improved tremendously in Van Quadra. The Conservatives, however, are very weak in all five of the City of Vancouver ridings and will not finish remotely close to Owen. The Conservatives could finish in third place in four of the ridings and fourth place in Vancouver East (behind the Green).


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
vaudree
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1331

posted 21 June 2004 10:54 AM      Profile for vaudree     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Minister of Canadian Heritage Hon. Hélène Scherrer is in trouble. She basically admitted so on the CBC yesterday. Minister of the Environment Hon. David Anderson says that he will be lucky to win by one vote - and that sounds optimisitic.

Anyone see the CBC bus in a rural Manitoba church - this lady started arguing that even though she tended to have conservative values that it did not mean that she was going to vote conservative - and then the CBC went on to another story. I am wondering what happened to cause them to cut out like that.

Cross country polls tend not to be too accurate concerning Manitoba since Manitoba tends to make up such a small portion of the sample.


From: Just outside St. Boniface | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Big Willy
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5451

posted 21 June 2004 11:00 AM      Profile for Big Willy        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
[QB]
He is also as old of the hills, obviously in early stage Alzheinmer's Disease and is an anti-abortion fanatic - political euthanasia is clearly in order.
QB]

Yes Rey is getting on in age, but why does that matter because he is still active and energetic. To say that he is in the early stages of Alzheimer’s is a mean and false statement, I can tell you that he is still at on top of things as he was when first elected in 1988, in fact his younger staff often has trouble keeping up with him. It is very offensive to say that he has Alzheimer’s when he clearly does not. Since you seem to have such great knowledge of Rey when was the last time that you talked to him about abortion? Or where did you get this untrue idea that he has Alzheimer’s, is this a NDP smear tactic? Is Judy putting you up to this?

On the other hand Judy has been looking like a bit of a nut, going crazy on Alder Online and just being herself.


From: The West | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged

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