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Author Topic: How many seats will the Greens deliver to Harper?
Decker
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posted 19 June 2004 10:58 AM      Profile for Decker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I have tried to get a focus on the effect of a large Green vote on the overall seat distribution. It seems to me that the Greens stand to split the vote sufficiently to deliver perhaps 20 seats to the Conservatives . this might well mean that we will wake up to a Conservative majority government based on about a third of the popular vote.

By all accounts Vancouver Island is the strongest region for the Greens. Let's take the BC Ipsos poll of June 1 to 8. A sample of 1066. Overall results:


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 June 2004 11:06 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It snot really clear how many votes the Greens will actually get and where they are coming from? Some are people who would not vote otherwise or would vote for another fringe party. Some are ex-Reform Party types that are turned off by Harper's lack of populaism, some are people who just think it sounds chic to say you are voting Green. We can't really make any assumptions where their vote comes from.

Hopefully Jack made some impact with his visit to Vancouver Island this week when he trumpeted the fact that several major environmental organizations think the NDP has better environmental policies than does the Green Party!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Decker
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posted 19 June 2004 11:44 AM      Profile for Decker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
(continued) Sorry I hit the wrong key.

Ipsos overall results for BC:

C 33
L 27
N 27
G 10

I believe this is the largest sample so far for any BC polling and the numbers feel more correct than some of the other polls with smaller samples.

Now let's take the Vancouver Island subsample and compare it with the overall percentages for those six ridings in 2000 (combining CA and PC):

Poll 2000 Change

C 30 53 -23
L 22 26 -4
N 26 13 +13
G 18 5 +13

Next let's apply these results to the six ridings individully and assume a uniform regional swing. (Yes I know the arguments against this BUT on average this is what the numbers should reflect:

2000 Poll

C L N G C L N G

Esq- Jde F 57 24 13 5 34 16 26 18

Nan-Cow 54 21 17 8 31 15 30 21

Nan-Alb 61 21 15 4 38 15 28 17

Saan-G Is 53 32 8 6 30 26 21 19

Victoria 36 43 13 8 13 37 26 21

Van Is N 57 25 12 6 34 19 25 19

The Conservatives, despite enormous losses of votes, stand to win 5 out of six seats on a vote of 30%!!!!. Without the Greens running the NDP has the potential of taking all six seats.

As an illustration of how this can play out let's consider the 1990 Ontario election where rights wing splinter groups like the Family Coalition, Libertarians, Christian Heritage, Freedom Party and Confederation of Regions (RW in table below) took 5.4% of the vote.

The overall result was:

% seats

N 37.6 74
L 32.4 36
PC 23.5 20
RW 5.4 0

These numbers are not dissimilar to some of the current polling for the Federal election if we substitute the Cons, Libs, NDP and Greens in that order.

The 5.4% the right wing splinter parties obtained in 1990 clearly delivered a majority government to the NDP, Just as a 5% Green vote may give Stephen Harper his majority. 13 NDP seats and 5 Liberal seats would have been won by the PCs had the right wing splinter vote been consolidated behind them. The results would then have been:

NDP 60
Lib 31
PC 39

I think that the Greens may play a dangerous mischief on the electoral process, something about which the press seems quite oblivious.

The Greens threaten to do to Canada exactly what they did in Florida in 2000.

C


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 June 2004 11:51 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Two points:

1. As I mentioned, I think it is simplistic to assume that the Green Party only takes votes from the NDP. I think they actually take a lot of votes from ex-PCs, ex-Liberals, ex-Marijuana supporters etc... They may cut MORE into the NDP than other parties but it might only cost the NDP a net loss of 2 points or so.

There have been polls posted here in ridings like Victoria and Esquimalt-JUan de Fuca that each have GReen support at 10%. That is NOT consistent with 18% in the whole Island. Those should be their two best seats after Saanish-Gulf Islands. If the GReens get 10% or less in 5 out of 6 ridings on Vancouver Island, then the only way they culd really be at 18% in the whole region would be if their vote was 60% or so in Saanish (not in a million years).

We also don't know what last minute impact Jack's trip to Vancouver Island and all the publicity about how the NDP is rated as being better on the environment than the Greens has had.

The NDP should expose the Greens for the imposters that they are.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
BugBear
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posted 19 June 2004 11:53 AM      Profile for BugBear   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
no one owns votes. Votes don't split other parties votes. If someone wants to vote Green that's what they want. I understand that the GP in Canada is rather Conservative and pro business.

Just from anecdotal evidence Green votes seem to be young perhaps even first time voters. Good for them. Let's see what they might do on their second trip to the polls. At least they are voting. They also seem to be folks concerned about environmental damage and ecological disaster. Good for them. Very few would be core NDP support and many would not vote NDP under any circumstance.


From: 2nd London Tractor Factory | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 19 June 2004 01:04 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I heard some of the Green vote is former Orchardite PCs.

Regarding the young Green voters, there is a high likelihood of them not voting. Outside of Saanich and The Islands, I wonder if there is any Green get-out-the-vote machine. Anyone know?


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Sean in Ottawa
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posted 19 June 2004 01:39 PM      Profile for Sean in Ottawa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP is strong enough on the environment and by far the stronger national party such that anyone voting Green would likely not consider the NDP. Otherwise they would be voting NDP.

I suspect the Greens include people who otherwise would not vote, Liberals who can't vote for any other main party, PCs who have lost their party etc. they also may include people who are right wing but care about the environment. With the problems the environment is having it is not a big surprise that there could be both a right of centre and a left of centre view, placing the environment on the agenda.

If this is the source of the Green vote, it could just as likely be a reason why the NDP could take seats that otherwise it would not have been able to.

It is pretty arrogant to look at a party and presume that it is taking your votes and if only they would go those votes would come to you. Wasn't that the point all the unite the right people said? In spite of the destruction of that party (PC), major scandals, a weak Liberal leader and campaign, an NDP that still averages support in the teens (with low 20s from time to time), the Conservative Alliance cannot regroup the former support of both parties.

If there is a lesson there, it is that people should recognize that voters do what they do for many reasons including specific leaders, local campaigns, current regional and national issues etc.

Let us recognize that the Greens have some stuff in common with us that we agree with and other stuff where we differ. There is no point hating them because we think they are taking their vote. They are a party that can't beat us taking votes that we either have not or cannot take for ourselves. Period.

Also it is a Canadian right to form political parties. They are small, but they are legitimate. We can agree sometimes, fight sometimes but pretending they are not legitimate makes us look small.

I don't think they will be a factor in this campaign regarding seats.However, they have every right to be. They should challenge us and if we fail, like other parties, they can go up. That is politics.

I am tired of this Green hating thing and presumption that this is our vote.

Rather than repeat the above re the BQ, I'll let you draw those same conlcusions for yourselves there. It is just as bogus to add up the BQ, Green and NDP and talk about the progressive vote as it is to add the Cons and Libs and brag about the Regressive vote or whatever we want to call it. The differences and similarities between all parties are tangible.

Let's support our party and invite those supporting all other parties to change their minds. I am sure there are many more voting Liberal who have more in common with us than those voting Green. Perhaps we should be drinking out of a bigger bucket.

Another point on this: all this NDP-Green hostility, coming mostly from the NDP, is not constructive. If, some day the Greens have even a couple members in the house, we may want to work with them on some issues. Building a rivalry is counter-productive.

That being said, it would be fair to point out that it is absurd to vote Green for environmental policy given the platforms of the two parties. Let us attack all parties based on our platform and theirs. Let us stop questionning the legitimacy of other parties or trying to desperately, and pointlessly dismiss them. There are a number of reasons I think the Green vote will show up and it will not be a loss to the NDP.

Final note: most of what I have said, I think our own party leader would agree with. He has supported the Greens in the debate and has never dismissed them. He merely points out the strength of our platform and the weakness of theirs. That is a good example -- look closely.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 June 2004 01:51 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The NDP is strong enough on the environment and by far the stronger national party such that anyone voting Green would likely not consider the NDP. Otherwise they would be voting NDP.

Sean, I agree with much of what you wrote, BUT I think that are some very misinformed people who are voting Green for very bad reasons who could be pulled to the NDP. There are lots of trendy 20-somethings (esp. in BC) who don't know politics from a six foot hole in the ground and don't bother to learn about how good the NDP is on the environment. They know that it is "groovy" to be concerned about pollution and they just blithely assume that Greens must be the only environmentally friendly party because they have the name "Green". In other words, the hear the name "Green" and they project all kinds of qualities onto that party that don't really exist.

They also maybe assume that the Greens must be like those groovy Greens in Germany wearing tie dyes to the Bundestag and spearheading nuclear disarmanent campaigns. They like the IMAGE and the IDEA of a Green Party. They just don't realize that the NDP is actually the REAL Green party in Canada. We are actually very much like European Greens who tend to be very leftwing offshoots from social democratic parties who are able to exist thanks to proportional representation.

I think that if the NDP does what it can to subtly expose the Green party fraud and show that they are actually a party of Tories who like to see trees from their living room windows - many of the people I just described will drop the Green party like a hot potato.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Decker
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posted 19 June 2004 01:56 PM      Profile for Decker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm surprised that anyone could charaterize my post as Green hating.I am simply trying to point out some painful realities of the electoral process.

I also think that it is naive to think that the Green vote is a wash that will not signifiantly affect the distribution of seats in Parliament.

Does anyone seriously believe that the average Green voter would not be more disposed to vote NDP than Conservative? Or thatNader's 90,000 votes in Florida would not have erased Bush's 527 vote margin?

Perhaps the six NDP candidates on Vancouver Island should be asked if they think their chances would be better without Green candidates competing against them. I think I know what their answer would be.

I sent my post in order to open a discussion about the advantage the Greens will give the Conservatives. No one seems to focus on the consequences of voting Green in many ridings. Harper is rubbing his hands with glee and Green voters should ask themselves whether they really want to give him the keys to 24 Sussex.


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 June 2004 02:09 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Does anyone seriously believe that the average Green voter would not be more disposed to vote NDP than Conservative? Or thatNader's 90,000 votes in Florida would not have erased Bush's 527 vote margin?


There is a big difference. The US Greens under Nader were clearly to the left of Al Gore and had ZERO in common with Bush. The GReen Party of Canada is more of a hybrid that attracts votes from people who just don't like voting for establsihed parties. They are probably more like the kinds of people who supported Ross Perot in the US.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Tackaberry
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posted 19 June 2004 03:05 PM      Profile for Tackaberry   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A little odd to be in favour of Pr to solve the democratic deficit and then complain about this.
From: Tokyo | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 June 2004 03:13 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Who is complaining? If some people are right of centre eccentics who genuinely believe in the Green Party's odd ball mix of envioronmentalism and free market economics and tax cuts etc... then all the more power to them. My concern is about people who assume that just because a party is called "Green" it must be like the US Green Party that Ralph Nader led.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
radiorahim
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posted 19 June 2004 04:10 PM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Who is complaining? If some people are right of centre eccentics who genuinely believe in the Green Party's odd ball mix of envioronmentalism and free market economics and tax cuts etc... then all the more power to them. My concern is about people who assume that just because a party is called "Green" it must be like the US Green Party that Ralph Nader led.

Case in point. The Green Party canvasser who knocked on my door last night told me she was an ex-Tory.

Of course I did my usual routine of tying her up at the door for as long as possible. I managed about 15 minutes. I knew the Green platform much better than she did.

During the last federal election I managed to tie up the whole team of half a dozen Liberal canvassers for about half an hour.

My best one though was a couple of provincial elections ago when I had the Liberal candidate walk away from my door screaming at me


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Albireo
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posted 19 June 2004 05:22 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I also think that the polls are inflating Green numbers. They'll do better in BC than anywhere else, but I'd be surprised if they actually got 10% province-wide and 18% on Van Island.
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Guêpe
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posted 19 June 2004 06:28 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
you know the Greens don't deliver seats to Harper...the voters do.

I know quite a few people who are voting Green because they don't like the Liberals, Conservatives or NDP.

I have a feeling the Greens are going to get alot more protest votes - votes that wouldn't otherwise go NDP.


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Hawkins
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posted 19 June 2004 06:48 PM      Profile for Hawkins     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
many will complain about the Liberals saying "the NDP stole votes from us... this riding would have gone Liberal if the NDPers smartened up" and such. Why should not become hypocrates. If people vote Green its either our own fault, or that they wouldn't have voted NDP in the first place.
From: Burlington Ont | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Agent 204
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posted 20 June 2004 12:43 AM      Profile for Agent 204   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Fair point. And I think that if we get PR, the Greens will probably become a somewhat significant party- and that won't be a bad thing at all. A guy I was talking to while out campaigning today said that the Greens were "a good lobby group but they'd make a lousy government." Well, under PR they'd be a lobby group that was right in Parliament- which would be a good thing.

However, without PR, even a Green supporter ought to know that the best thing you could do for the Greens right now is to vote NDP.


From: home of the Guess Who | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
Erik Pool
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posted 20 June 2004 02:57 AM      Profile for Erik Pool     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Mike Keenan:
Fair point. And I think that if we get PR, the Greens will probably become a somewhat significant party- and that won't be a bad thing at all.

People are so naive, aren't they. There isn't going to be Proportional Representaiton at the federal level until it's in place in a majority of the provinces. Even if Jack Layton is in a position to demand a referendum, the public will turn it down flat, just like the split level federalism of Meech/Charlottetown.

What's more, if we do get PR, the major mass media won't be promoting the Greens anymore because they will no longer be just a siphon on the NDP, they'll be a kind of fringe threat to all parties. Or don't you see that? If you don't see that, there's no point in anyone trying to spell it out for you.


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
HellofaSandwich
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posted 20 June 2004 03:11 AM      Profile for HellofaSandwich   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Decker:
It seems to me that the Greens stand to split the vote sufficiently to deliver perhaps 20 seats to the Conservatives . this might well mean that we will wake up to a Conservative majority government based on about a third of the popular vote.

You do realize that you sound like a Liberal talking about the NDP, right?


From: Edmonton | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
fatal ruminate
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posted 20 June 2004 11:19 AM      Profile for fatal ruminate     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Actually, it seems to me that the Green Party seems to draw voters from all parties. I don't think that their presence is going to adversely affect any particular party and may, in fact, get some younger and/or reluctant voters to actually vote.
From: Toronto | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
robbie_dee
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posted 20 June 2004 03:36 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Posted by Stockholm, over on this thread, regarding the Ipsos and EKOS polls both released this weekend.

quote:
Those two polls are actually not that far apart. Ipsos has the Conservatives at 32%, EKOS has them at 31%

Both Ipsos and EKOS have the Liberals at 29%

Both have the BQ at 12% or 13%

Here is the only place that they differ significantly: EKOS has the NDP at 20.5% and has Greens/Others at 6%. Ipsos has the NDP at 16% and Greens/Others at 11%.

I hope EKOS is right about the NDP. One thing i do feel strongly about is that I would be shocked if 11% of the vote goes to Greens/Others as Ipsos suggests


I wonder if this is some evidence of where the Greens draw their support from. As I understand it, the main difference between Ipsos and EKOS's methods here is that Ipsos prompts for the Greens, whereas EKOS does not. Ipsos has consistently shown higher support for the Greens and lower support for the NDP.


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 20 June 2004 04:52 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't trust Ipsos-Reid.

They have the Greens at 10% in Atlantic Canada, 7% in Quebec, 7% in Ontario, 6% in Albera, and 7% in B.C.

The only province that should have the Greens at above 3% is B.C.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
robbie_dee
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posted 20 June 2004 05:07 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not saying that the Greens will get 11% on election day. I'm not even saying they'll get the 6% EKOS predicts.

What I am asking is whether you can use the differential result between the two polls to identify which parties the Green support is coming from (regardless of whatever level it actually winds up being on election day). Some people on this thread have suggested the Green vote comes more from the Liberals or Tories than from the NDP.

What I am saying is we have two polls from about the same time period, one of which prompts for the Green Party and one of which doesn't. When the Green Party was prompted, NDP support dropped 5% and GP support jumped 5% (doubling their total). That suggests to me that Green voters may well be people who would otherwise support the NDP.


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
leftcoastguy
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posted 20 June 2004 05:25 PM      Profile for leftcoastguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ipsos-Reid has already had one rogue poll, during this election in relation to the New Democrats. It was in BC. Who can say this is not another one?

I followed the SES CPAC polling figures for the New Democrats, from June 9th when they were at 15%, and saw them rising steadily to 22% two days ago. And then the EKOS poll came out yesterday showing the New Democrats at 21%. I am confident that EKOS is on the money with their current polling results.


From: leftcoast | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged

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