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Author Topic: What if... the NDP surpassed the Libs in seats?!
Rich L
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posted 16 June 2004 11:30 PM      Profile for Rich L     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A very unlikely scenario to be sure, but yet it wouldn't take that dramatic a shift in the polls to happen.

Take the 1984 federal election results, for example: Liberals won 40 seats with 28% of the vote and the NDP won 30 seats with 19%. The Liberals won 9% more than the NDP in terms of popular vote, but yet only led by 10 seats.

The 1984 numbers of 28% Lib and 19% NDP aren't very far at all from the current poll results we're seeing - I think the last poll I saw had the Libs at 32% and the NDP at 19%. If the Libs lost, say, 4% to the NDP and the results were 28% to 23%, it's very possible that the NDP would surpass the Liberals in seats (the seat count might look something like 55 NDP to 45 Liberal).

The consequences of this might be the actual demise of the Liberals as a governing party, like what happened in Manitoba, early B.C., or even in the U.K. Left-wing Liberals would likely start to shift to the NDP to stop the Conservatives, while right-wing Liberals would go Con to stop the NDP. If this had happened in 1984, the NDP might have gained substantially more in 1988 and then formed the government in 1993.

Again, I'm not expecting this to happen unless the Liberals find a way to lose more ground in the next couple of weeks, but it's interesting to imagine the possibilities.


From: Winnipeg | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 16 June 2004 11:35 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For it to happen, I think we'd have to see the following conditions -
NDP win more seats than Libs in the maritimes.
Bloc wins at least 60 seats
NDP and Con total in Ontario must exceed 80 seats.
Liberals would have to lose everything in the West except maybe one seat in BC and two in MB.

From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
BugBear
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posted 17 June 2004 12:25 AM      Profile for BugBear   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Screaming Lord Byron:
For it to happen, I think we'd have to see the following conditions -
NDP win more seats than Libs in the maritimes.
Bloc wins at least 60 seats
NDP and Con total in Ontario must exceed 80 seats.
Liberals would have to lose everything in the West except maybe one seat in BC and two in MB.

Your point being. . . ?


From: 2nd London Tractor Factory | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 17 June 2004 07:24 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What percentage of the vote did the Liberals have in 1988 when they had 80 some seats?
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
leftcoastguy
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posted 17 June 2004 07:31 AM      Profile for leftcoastguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1988.11.21
Progressive Conservative 169
295 5,667,563 43.02 %
Liberal 83
294 4,205,072 31.92 %
New Democratic Party 43
295 2,685,308 20.38 %
Social Credit
9 3,407 0.03 %
Other
681 719,841 4.65 %
Total 295 1,574 13,281,191 100 %
Government--169, Opposition--126, Majority--43

From: leftcoast | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 17 June 2004 07:38 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well then it seems quite likely the Liberals will get less than 100 seats unless Martin turns things around in the next two weeks. I don't see the Tories getting a majority however.
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
leftcoastguy
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posted 17 June 2004 07:40 AM      Profile for leftcoastguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
They may if Liberal supporters don't smarten up and switch to the New Democrats.

We will see this election what Liberal supporters are made of, whether they are prepared to abandon their Liberal ship, for the good of the Canadian fleet.

[ 17 June 2004: Message edited by: leftcoastguy ]


From: leftcoast | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 17 June 2004 09:57 AM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by BugBear:

Your point being. . . ?


My point being, those are the conditions which would likely have to be met for the NDP to surpass the Liberals in the seat totals.


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
heme
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posted 17 June 2004 11:15 AM      Profile for heme     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ed Broadbent has said that the NDP is leading or in 2nd in at least 60 ridings. My guess is that they are looking in the 40 seat range.
From: Canada | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sean in Ottawa
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posted 17 June 2004 11:37 AM      Profile for Sean in Ottawa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Broadbent's figures are highly credible by my own calculations.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
Kinetix
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posted 17 June 2004 01:24 PM      Profile for Kinetix     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If the NDP get more seats than the Liberals, I will go blind for three days..... three glorious days.
From: Montréal, Québec | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
kyliep
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posted 17 June 2004 01:24 PM      Profile for kyliep     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think a more credible call might be the NDP winning more seats than the Liberals in Ontario, but the Libs getting slightly more across the country (taking seats in Quebec, Atlantic provs). Does anyone out there know what % the Cons were polling at prior to their electoral shit-kicking in 1993? I'm trying to get a sense of just how low the Liberals could go.
According to most of the newspapers, the Liberals are hanging on, but 30% support in a poll may not translate to 30% on election day.

From: Toronto | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 June 2004 01:37 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think you can make ANY comparison between this election and 1993.

Remember that all though 1990, 1991, 1992 and the start of 1993, the Mulroney government was the most ridiculously unpopular in history. Mulroney had approval ratings in SINGLE DIGITS! The Tories were polling at under 20% for a three year period. The 16% they ended up with about the level of support they had had prior to their very brief "bounce" right after Campbell took over.

Are people pissed off at the Liberals? Yes!
Is it at all comparable to how pissed off people were at the Tories in 1993? (remember recession, GST, Meech lake and CHarlottetown collapses, high unemployment AND scandal) NO!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
matty
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posted 17 June 2004 01:41 PM      Profile for matty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rich L:

The consequences of this might be the actual demise of the Liberals as a governing party... Left-wing Liberals would likely start to shift to the NDP to stop the Conservatives, while right-wing Liberals would go Con to stop the NDP....
it's interesting to imagine the possibilities.

I'm not so sure all would be rosy if this happened.Regressing to a 2 party system, even one that includes the NDP is not my idea of progressing our democracy. Both parties would feel enormous pressure to move to the neo-liberal centre right... for all practical purposes that would be the end of the NDP as we know it.


From: Toronto, ON | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
robbie_dee
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posted 17 June 2004 01:44 PM      Profile for robbie_dee     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I don't think you can make ANY comparison between this election and 1993.

It might be possible to compare this election to 1984, though, with ascendant Harper and Duceppe leading the two branches of the old Mulroney coalition, and the NDP headed by a charismatic Ontario leader trying hard to make gains in that province. As someone else noted above, the NDP came within 10 seats of the Liberals then, mainly because the Libs were almost completely shut out of the West.

[ 17 June 2004: Message edited by: robbie_dee ]


From: Iron City | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 June 2004 01:52 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1984 was more like 1993 than this year. Again, the Liberals had been ridiculously unpopular during Trudeau's entire last term. They were routinely trailing the Tories by 20 points or more all through '82, '83 and '84. There had been a severe recession, interest rates were sky-high etc... and on top of that Turner was a total fiasco on the campaign trail in a way that Martin has not been.

The NDP took 32 seats in 1980 and was ecstatic to keep 30 of them in 1984 in the face of the Tory landslide.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged

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