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Author Topic: Windsor riding polls
James
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Babbler # 5341

posted 05 June 2004 01:30 PM      Profile for James        Edit/Delete Post
The Windsor Star (now a Canwest rag) and some outfit called Essex Polling and Research have commissioned a 5 day rolling poll ofthe 3 local ridings; Windsor Tecumseh, Windsor West, and Essex. Apparently will run right through to the 28th.

Today they released the first results.

Joe Comartin looks safe in Windsor Tecumseh
28.4 % (and trending up) Libs 21% (trending down) Con 21 % (steady)

Windsor West - Brian Masse is surprisingly in tough Unknown Conman by name of Jordan Katz @ 34.2 %, Masse @ 31.5%, Lib Pollac 20.5% and dropping. Stategic voting as directed by C.A.W. should save it for Masse

Essex - Incumbent and former cabinet minister Susan Whelan is in big-time trouble. 3 time loser Con Jeff Watson polling 42.5%, Whalen 18.4, some Green dude @ 18%, NDP 16.1. Buzz and Kenny Lewenza will have to really hammer strategic votes for Whelan to save this one from going Con.

MoE +/- 4.4 % overall; 7.5 for individual ridings

[ 05 June 2004: Message edited by: JamesR ]


From: Windsor; ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
sgm
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Babbler # 5468

posted 07 June 2004 06:02 PM      Profile for sgm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ken Rockburn of CPAC mentioned this poll in his blog today. He put things this way:

quote:

The poll, commissioned by the Star to run the length of the campaign, says two no-name Tories are well ahead in voter favour than incumbent Liberal and former cabinet minister Susan Whelan, and NDP by-electon winner Brian Masse. It also says that once popular NDP MP Joe Comartin is in the fight of his life in his riding, just a hair ahead of the competition.

This doesn't sound promising for the NDP.

There's a link to the blog from the CPAC home page.


From: I have welcomed the dawn from the fields of Saskatchewan | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
James
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Babbler # 5341

posted 07 June 2004 08:06 PM      Profile for James        Edit/Delete Post
Well, that's quite a post. CPAC considers a polled lead of less than 3% to be "well ahead" in a sample that allows an almost 8% MoE ?

Joe Comartin in "the fight of his life" in Windsor Tecumseh ?

Joe, who lost by 90 votes to Lib Limoges in his first try, and then beat him by about 300 in 2000, has a 7.5% lead over both Limoges and whats'is name. A walk in the park.

With Masse, don't worry; strategic voting will be very strong here and the GOTV effort, with lots of "boots on the ground provided by the CAW makes his incumbancy safe.

Liberal Susan Whelan may be in trouble in Essex; though I suspect that a strategic vote in her favour may save her bacon.


From: Windsor; ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Krago
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posted 07 June 2004 09:11 PM      Profile for Krago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"The survey of 497 Windsor and Essex County residents was conducted from May 23 to June 3."

It works out to a sample of 166 per riding (or 14 per riding per night), which is ridiculously low. And they even had the nerve to include a tracking poll graph!

The Windsor Star did something similar in the 1980 election, which also showed the PCs quite high. In the end, the Tories lost their deposits. I wouldn't give this poll too much credence.


From: The Royal City | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
James
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Babbler # 5341

posted 07 June 2004 11:14 PM      Profile for James        Edit/Delete Post
Taling into account the small sample sizes ( I don't understand why any political science professor would be going with something so small ), the numbers are pretty reflective of what is being observed by workers and reporters on the ground.
From: Windsor; ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
rob mcguffin
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posted 08 June 2004 12:21 AM      Profile for rob mcguffin     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This poll should be taken with agrain of salt...there is no way in hell that Jordan Katz is ahead by this much...cause in my opinion he is third at most....There are hardly any Katz signs out on lawns and Masse and Pollock double and in some cases triple the amount that Katz has out there.....mind you Katz does have alot of signs on public property and on the side of our local expressway but you really don't see many on actual house lawns.As far as Joe goes he is getting tremendous response door to door and is exasporating his sign supply...i think he is a lock...Now Susan whelan is another story and is in deep trouble from the conservative and the NDP....The Windsor Star is a rag and shouldn't be referred to in any aspect of the election.
From: windsor | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
sgm
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posted 08 June 2004 01:52 AM      Profile for sgm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well I'm glad to read this stuff. You guys have made me feel better about the two Windsor seats.

Actually, if I'd read Rockburn's blog more closely, I'd have noticed this fact about the pollster:

quote:

Our first visit will be with Lydia Miljan. She's the University of Windsor professor, formerly with the Fraser Institute, who is conducting the surveys.

A Fraser-institute type is unlikely to come up with anything but a Conservative-friendly poll.


From: I have welcomed the dawn from the fields of Saskatchewan | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
candle
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posted 08 June 2004 02:13 AM      Profile for candle     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Don't worry about these polls for specific ridings by unknown pollsters. In the 1995 Ontario election I saw Liberal and Tory strategists on Studio 2 saying they had polls that Floyd Laughren and Peter Kormos were losing badly. Frances Lankin just looked at them incredously.
From: Ontario | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
rob mcguffin
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posted 08 June 2004 07:21 PM      Profile for rob mcguffin     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Just thought i would let everyone know that a grade school had an all candidates meeting in Windsor -West riding .Stiudents asked questions to all the candidates then the next day they actuallt voted for who they thought would be the best candidate...here are the results....Brian Masse NDP-179..Richard Pollock Liberal-89...Jordan Katz Conservative-39..Rob Spring green-6......They interviewed one student who said he thought Brian actually knew what he was talking about and was fluent on the situations in the riding.Lets hope the kid's parents will feel the same way..
From: windsor | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Thrasymachus
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posted 08 June 2004 10:17 PM      Profile for Thrasymachus     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My post was a bit nastier and personal than I would like. After all I did misspell sycophant so I shouldn't be casting too many stones. Let's just say that I've read Lydia's work and it has always come across as more editorial than academic.

[ 09 June 2004: Message edited by: fiberal sicophant ]


From: South of Hull | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
James
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Babbler # 5341

posted 08 June 2004 10:51 PM      Profile for James        Edit/Delete Post
As a matter of fact; Ms. Miljan was one of a number of "experts interviewed this morning on Paul Vasey's local C.B.C. morning show here.

She admitted that the polling numbers are so thin that they prove absolutely nothing except that Susan Whelan is probably in trouble in Essex. Her polling data in no way justifies the "tories surging" headline that topped it.

Mind you; we today have, From that esteemed rag, the inner heading "Polls Say Slim Majority", while the text of the story does not use the term majority once, and in fact says that a minority, one way or the other, is the only likely outcome. I have already sent my letter to the Editor.

We should all guard against letting the media (particularly Can-West) try to create a "herd mentality"

I think if I read the term "surge" in more more headline, I may puke. There is no surge. Basically, the Cons have hit a plateau, and the other side is coming right up.


From: Windsor; ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
clearview
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posted 08 June 2004 10:55 PM      Profile for clearview     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Also, journalists don't have final say on the headlines, so we shouldn't blame them for an over ambitious headline
From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
James
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5341

posted 08 June 2004 11:13 PM      Profile for James        Edit/Delete Post
I am not blaming the journalists; I am blaming the Aspers; the most putrid influence on Canadian society today.
From: Windsor; ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
clearview
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posted 08 June 2004 11:15 PM      Profile for clearview     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Sorry James, that wasn't directed to you, just a general comment I was throwing out.
From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged

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