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Author Topic: Why Do France/Russia Oppose War?
wei-chi
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posted 08 March 2003 11:32 AM      Profile for wei-chi   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does anyone think that France and Russia, two states spearheading the anti-war movement at the UN, are being open about there reasons? Russia and France are equally guilty in their own international interferences over the years, why do they oppose this move?
From: Saskatoon | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
lagatta
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posted 08 March 2003 11:44 AM      Profile for lagatta     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I can't speak for any other babblers, but I doubt many of us have any illusions about French foreign policy in Africa or Russian policy with regard to its "breakaway states". For strictly tactical reasons of breaks in the imperialist front, I am very glad to see them opposing Bush and Blair.
From: Se non ora, quando? | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 08 March 2003 03:26 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree with Lagatta. Russian policy stinks on its periphery, and France is no bed of roses. Even Germany sucks from time to time. But so what? On this issue, for whatever reasons, they are right. They should be congratulated. And, even if Bush is ever-so-convinced of his moral muscle tone, he is committing aggression in violation of international law. He should be denounced.
From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
skdadl
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posted 08 March 2003 05:14 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It seems to me that the French and German positions have become more firm, less equivocal, over the last couple of months.

No doubt their original resistance to Bush's plans was self-interested, and that is no doubt still a big dollop of what Chirac is doing, anyway. But am I wrong to think that the massive public protests have actually had an effect (for the first time in a long time) on stiffening their spines? I really didn't think they would hold out past a certain point -- but now it looks as though they are staying the course. (Forgive the sort of mixed metaphor.)


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Zatamon
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posted 08 March 2003 06:16 PM      Profile for Zatamon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don’t want to sound cynical, and I am just guessing like everyone else, but…

Aren’t France and Germany utterly dependent on Mideast oil? If the US gets firmly established in the region (militarily), doesn’t it make them entirely dependent on US goodwill at the same time?

I listened very carefully to a CBC interview with French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin and the only comment of his that gave me a clue was: “We can’t accept that one Nation dictate to the whole world”. I think both pride and self interest play a very important role here.

[ 08 March 2003: Message edited by: Zatamon ]


From: where hope for 'hope' is contemplated | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
skdadl
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posted 08 March 2003 06:23 PM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well on the one hand, yes, Zatamon. That is, I think the original French equivocation arose from their wanting to assert their own interests, even as they recognized that by the endgame, they would have to be on side with the U.S., so as not to be excluded from the goodies when the inevitable inevits.

But I think something else has happened. I'm sure that, back before Christmas, the French were talking with the Americans very seriously. I wonder now. They are more entrenched than they started out to be. I wonder.


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
'lance
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posted 08 March 2003 06:28 PM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Aren’t France and Germany utterly dependent on Mideast oil?

Not utterly. The Russians are selling considerable oil. In fact, it's reportedly the only thing keeping their economy from utter collapse. There are also oil fields in Rumania I think -- at least, these were of strategic importance during the Second World War. And then, of course, there's oil from the North Sea.

What proportion of, say, French and German oil comes from the Middle East I don't know, but they certainly have some other options.


From: that enchanted place on the top of the Forest | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Zatamon
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posted 08 March 2003 06:43 PM      Profile for Zatamon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't have actual data either, but I think the bulk of their oil does come from the Middle East. Russia is an unreliable source due to their political and economic turmoil, Romania is pretty negligible at current demand levels and England is more likely to hang on to their own oil in case of shortages. This all makes France and Germany pretty vulnerable as far as I can see it.

And it is also possible that they know things we never heard of (and probably never will), happening behind the scenes.


From: where hope for 'hope' is contemplated | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
John Collins
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posted 08 March 2003 07:38 PM      Profile for John Collins     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
But I think something else has happened.

Me, too. I think that France and Germany are both uniquely placed in a position to understand what happens in one's country, and in the world, when its' population is swayed onto the path of war by the simplistic arguments of a self-interested, megalomaniacal dictator, who goes "the way that Providence dictates with the assurance of a sleepwalker."

They've seen this all before.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
marty raw
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posted 08 March 2003 07:50 PM      Profile for marty raw     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Churchill once said he would've made a deal with the Devil himself to stop Hitler.

True,Germany,Russia & France have all tasted war on their soil. No wonder thay have no stomach for it. Then again, Russia became Communist as a direct result of WWI, France lost all her colonies and Germany was very nearly utterly destroyed. Not a lot of pluses on the 'war:yes' side.


From: Toronto, baby | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
John Collins
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posted 08 March 2003 08:04 PM      Profile for John Collins     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Of course, speaking of megalomania, if anyone still doubts, look at this thread.

[ 08 March 2003: Message edited by: John Collins ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
bellows
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posted 08 March 2003 09:08 PM      Profile for bellows     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Where do you think Iraq gets all the material to build weapons. From France, germany and Russia. Now if you are making millions, would you want to lose this?
From: Corner Brook | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
wolfears
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posted 09 March 2003 04:05 PM      Profile for wolfears     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that Russia, France and Germany are big buisness partners to Iraq.
My guess would be that Saddam might even owe them some money, because usually not everything gets paid for right away.
If Saddam is gone, who's gonna pay the money back?

From: kitchener | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 09 March 2003 04:38 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A few weeks ago, the New York Times revealed that France imported and exported about the same percentage of GNP to Iraq. I believe it was 1.2%

Their economic interests would not, therefore, be substantially effected by tagging on to the war against Iraq.

While it is true that the Americans may use their military power to dislodge French companies from Iraq, that threat is not an argument in favour of French invasion; it is an argument against American invasion.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Markbo
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posted 11 March 2003 09:46 PM      Profile for Markbo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I love the blatant admission that the anti war movement's true motives are not peace but anti amaricanism. That you could care less about Russia or France's foreign policy except that the enemy of your enemy is now your friend.
From: Windsor | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
fatcalf
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posted 11 March 2003 11:55 PM      Profile for fatcalf        Edit/Delete Post
Pity poor France. Lost to Germany in the Franco-Prussian debacle. Stalemate in World War One (but vociferous in Versailles treaty). Over-run in the first months of WW2, then Vichy. Then troubles in French-Indo-China (Vietnam, big defeat), the Suez debacle, and then the Algerian nastiness. Increasing irrelance through the 60s, pouting about Nato, pouting about Britain's potential admittance to the Common Market. DeGaulle's stupidity in Quebec (Vive le Quebec libre, etc. etc. -- then kicked out of the country by Pearson - yay!)

Britain let them play when it came to the Concorde - slight blip upwards.

The seventies and eighties -- increasing irrlevance, but annoying nasty stuff in South Pacific (H-bombs, sinking protest ships, etc.)

In the nineties -- Germany poised to dominate euro zone at turn of the millenium, and Britain actually becoming the economic powerhouse during that period. Pound very dominant - franc irrelevant.

Christ -- no wonder Chirac wants a mood-enhancer for France these days!

Allons enfants de la patrie!

[ 12 March 2003: Message edited by: fatcalf ]


From: vancouver | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
fatcalf
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posted 12 March 2003 01:31 AM      Profile for fatcalf        Edit/Delete Post
Oops -- I left out Russia. Actually, I have far more sympathy for the Russians, so I won't go on a rant.
From: vancouver | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged

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