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Author Topic: Stephen Lewis to run??
Stockholm
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posted 19 December 2003 04:20 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I just heard on the radio that Jack Layton is approaching Stephen Lewis about running federally in Beaches-East York. No word on what the answer is. I tend to think that party leaders do not usually go public when they are wooing a big name unless they are reasonably confident that the answer will be YES.

I think that with a team of Olivia Chow, Jack himself and Stephen Lewis - three Toronto seats are in the bag and we have the makings of a real NDP dream team in Parliament (I'm counting on Ed too).

The news just keeps getting better and better. This is the best Christmas present we could ever get.

I don't like to be a sore winner a year after the fact, but as someone who backed Layton for leader from the very, very beginning - BOY DID THE NDP EVER DO THE RIGHT THING IN CHOOSING HIM!! Its hard to imagine the NDP having anywhere near this much momentum under the leadership of any of the other candidates.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 19 December 2003 04:25 PM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Stephen Lewis is very committed to his job as the UN's envoy to Africa on AIDS. I really doubt he'd turn his back on that in order to become an opposition MP.
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Stockholm
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posted 19 December 2003 04:36 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Stephen Lewis is very committed to his job as the UN's envoy to Africa on AIDS. I really doubt he'd turn his back on that in order to become an opposition MP.

I would have said the same thing. But, I also think that it would be odd for Jack to actually say on national television that he wants Lewis to run unless he had some reason to believe that it was actually going to happen. Otherwise, if Lewis says no it looks like a rejection.


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Sharon
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posted 19 December 2003 04:51 PM      Profile for Sharon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It also was odd for Jack to say he had proof that Scott Brison was going to challenge Alexa for the Halifax seat. The only explanation I can think of is that Jack heard something and decided to speak out, hoping it would chase Brison away. If that's why he did it, it worked. And it's unlikely that Scott could have defeated Alexa anyway.

I also can't imagine Stephen leaving his current post -- but maybe I'm wrong.


From: Halifax, Nova Scotia | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
terra1st
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posted 19 December 2003 04:52 PM      Profile for terra1st     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
*watching intently*

What would SL's natural ridings be? where does he live?

He'll be in saskatoon on jan 24th-25th, and if he hasn't gone public by then, I'll ask him and report back the *crosses fingers* good news!


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Michelle
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posted 19 December 2003 04:55 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Wow. That WOULD be pretty cool.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
spatrioter
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posted 19 December 2003 04:57 PM      Profile for spatrioter     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Now I know how sports fans feel when good players are drafted to their team!
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JeffWells
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posted 19 December 2003 05:00 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd read a few weeks ago that Lewis was approached, but no word yet on which way he was leaning.

I would welcome his return enthusiastically, but I think it's doubtful. Even in the 1970s, he seemed only half-hearted about the legislature, and seemed to burn out long before most career politicians. And as has been said, his life post-politics has been very fruitful.

And since we're speaking of Lewis, how about his daughter-in-law Naomi Klein? There's a trade critic I'd like to see.


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Sammy D
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posted 19 December 2003 05:19 PM      Profile for Sammy D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I would have thought that a Lewis run was probably not going to happen, but the other day I was told by a very reliable source that the chances are good. Who knows...
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that-girl
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posted 19 December 2003 05:41 PM      Profile for that-girl        Edit/Delete Post
um, I don't want to seem disrespectful but Jack Layton, Ed Broadbent, Micahel Shapcott, Stephen Lewis... anyone see a pattern? I havn't heard of a single person running who is young and aside from the CUPE president (Judy Darcy?) I havn't heard to many names of women. Seems like the same old same old to me! Are any young people, women, people of colour, activists running in ridings where there is a decent chance of winning?
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Doug
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posted 19 December 2003 05:45 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm a bit uncomfortable with running both Ed Broadbent and Stephen Lewis. This is the 2004 campaign, not a 1980s retro party. If I was a Liberal strategist looking at this, I'd think it sets up the situation nicely for the "NDP politicians are mired in the past" line.
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folker
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posted 19 December 2003 05:52 PM      Profile for folker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
On "The Current" today Judy Rebick was saying that she's very impressed with the drive the NDP is putting on recruiting women candidates. People who have been nominated or are seeking nominations include:

Mary Woo-Sims (former BC Human Rights Commissioner) in Vancouver-Kingsway;

Peggy Nash (labour leader);

Judy D'Arcy (labour leader).

For some reason the NDP, as Gerry Kaplan acknowledged today on "The Current," has always had some trouble attracting people of colour to the party (this issue deserves its own thread), but it may make some inroads this time around, with the likes of Woo-Sims (a Chinese-Canadian) and probably Olivia Chow (has she actually confirmed that she's running?).


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terra1st
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posted 19 December 2003 05:55 PM      Profile for terra1st     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I keep saying it, Nettie Weibe is running!

She's a prof at the U of S, and a former president of the National Farmers Union, and some sort of religious leader, and a whole lot of other stuff...


From: saskatoon | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
that-girl
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posted 19 December 2003 05:59 PM      Profile for that-girl        Edit/Delete Post
ok. so there are some women (but not a lot in Ontario). What about people under 40? Are any of the people mentioned "youthful". I still hear some people refer to Svend Robinson as youthful but I don't think he is anymore!

Is that NDP president guy Adam Giambrone running? I want to see a few good young people get elected.


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Guêpe
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posted 19 December 2003 05:59 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Umm other then Olivia Chow I can,t think of any women or minaurities.

*** From what I gather *** they are trying to draw several "very big names" to certain key ridings. A nucleous of sorts that would give the potential for an Orange Wave if there was to be some sort of sizemic shift, in the polls. And if not, someplace to build on, with young blood in subsequent elections.

Jack said that he approached Stephen Lewis ?

Maybe that's a way of trying to encourage him to run. Get a flood of letters from New Democrats from across the country. ... just a thought.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
JeffWells
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posted 19 December 2003 06:04 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's the story today from the CBC:

Layton asks Lewis to run for Parliament

TORONTO - Federal NDP Leader Jack Layton wants Stephen Lewis, the former leader of Ontario's New Democrats, to run for the party in the next national election.

Layton confirmed Friday that he's asked Lewis to seek a spot in his caucus. But Lewis, the UN special envoy for combating AIDS in Africa, may be too busy, the NDP leader said.

"I've raised it with him," Layton said. "However … he's very, very active in his current vitally important project in Africa, and so I wouldn't suggest that there's a strong likelihood that he would make that switch."

Rumours surfaced recently that Lewis, Canada's former ambassador to the United Nations, would run for the NDP in a Toronto riding.

If he agrees to go after an MP's job, Lewis will add even more political star power to the NDP's slate of candidates.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/12/19/layton_031219


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
folker
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posted 19 December 2003 06:09 PM      Profile for folker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Apparently Glenn Murray has been approached by both the Liberals and the NDP.

Now I'm confused. Up until now I was 100% certain that if he were to run he would do so as a Liberal.


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that-girl
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posted 19 December 2003 06:20 PM      Profile for that-girl        Edit/Delete Post
" *** From what I gather *** they are trying to draw several "very big names" to certain key ridings. A nucleous of sorts that would give the potential for an Orange Wave if there was to be some sort of sizemic shift, in the polls. And if not, someplace to build on, with young blood in subsequent elections."


Yikes! that sounds pretty dangerous and uninspiring. "let's re-buid the party with mostly old white guys and then hand it over to the kids!" no thanks! if this is the way the ndp is going than no thanks! I think there needs to be young (and old) blood now! Liek it would be cool if Judy Rebick and someone like Naomi Klein were to run and Ed Broadbent AND some young activist. I think especially when there is a white, male leader, you have to have even more diversity in the caucus and Olivia can't be the woman and the minority. There needs to be diversity not a diverse person. And is she even running?


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Guêpe
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posted 19 December 2003 06:20 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ok that makes sense...he's saying he approached him but he doesnt think its likely.

He's trying to recruit him. Get the NDP fanmail going.

Just because two parties approach someone to run it doesn't mean the person is of that political stripe. I don't know about Glen Murray, if he is a die in the wool Liberal.It happens all the time that .


From: Ottawa | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 19 December 2003 06:24 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The report on the CBC said that if Lewis ran it would be in Beaches-East York. Makes sense to me. There are three truly winnable seats for the NDP in Toronto and two out of three of them are probably spoken for by Jack himslef and Olivia Chow. Beaches-EY is the one other highly winnable Toronto seat where the NDP has a chance to get a major star candidate.

With regard to youthful candidates, I agree we need some. We also need very well known star candidates. Most people who are 25-35 years old are not all that famous YET - unless they are athletes or entertainers.


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folker
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posted 19 December 2003 06:24 PM      Profile for folker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A (fairly) reliable source told me that Glenn Murray was a card-carrying Liberal.

[ 19 December 2003: Message edited by: folker ]


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Stockholm
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posted 19 December 2003 06:32 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
A (fairly) reliable source told me that Glenn Murray was a card-carrying Liberal.

Why doesn't someone ask him?? Being a member of a party should not be some deep dark secret. Its not like being a Freemason.


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terra1st
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posted 19 December 2003 06:40 PM      Profile for terra1st     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
glenn murray... the old hockey player? didn't he play for the oilers a while back? *confused*
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Guêpe
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posted 19 December 2003 06:51 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
With regard to youthful candidates, I agree we need some. We also need very well known star candidates. Most people who are 25-35 years old are not all that famous YET - unless they are athletes or entertainers.

Just like most political personalities youthful ones get in on the coattails of a party wave. That's how Robinson and Nystrom did it. But in turn they build up a reputation and that got them back in. (or kept them in as is the case for Svend)


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folker
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posted 19 December 2003 06:52 PM      Profile for folker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think it may be "Glen" with one "n."

[ 19 December 2003: Message edited by: folker ]


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Mycroft_
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posted 19 December 2003 07:00 PM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
My understanding from people who know him is that Stephen Lewis despises today's sound-bite, gimmicky politics and that he's more likely to stick hot needles in his eyes than run for office. Now I heard this a few months ago and he could have changed his mind but I doubt it, especially given his commitments in Africa which are very close to his heart (he first went to Africa in 1959) and which are arguably far more important in the scheme of things than whether the NDP wins one more seat.
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Robo
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posted 19 December 2003 07:06 PM      Profile for Robo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by that-girl:
ok. so there are some women (but not a lot in Ontario). What about people under 40? Are any of the people mentioned "youthful". I still hear some people refer to Svend Robinson as youthful but I don't think he is anymore!

The most recent edition of The Democrat (the party newspaer in BC) has an article entitled "NDP candidates in B.C. first out of the gate", whose first paragraph reads: "Popular North Cowichan councillor Jean Crowder was named the NDP candidate in Nanaimo-Cowichan in the next federal election." The article later notes: "Federal NDP leader Jack Layton was enthusiastic in his praise for Crowder. 'I think Jean Crowder is just the sort of person we need', said Layton. 'She is young, energetic, articulate, and she has deep roots in her community."


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Guêpe
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posted 19 December 2003 07:36 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
My understanding from people who know him is that Stephen Lewis despises today's sound-bite, gimmicky politics and that he's more likely to stick hot needles in his eyes than run for office.

If this is the case, that means Fed Office hasnt done it's homework.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Leftistness
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posted 19 December 2003 09:38 PM      Profile for Leftistness     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This is excerpted from the Deceber 6 Edmonton Journal:

quote:
Edmonton teacher, writer, community broadcaster and unionist Malcolm Azania wants to add one more job title to his list - New Democratic Party MP for Edmonton-Strathcona.

Azania, known on the radio as "Minister Faust", says he believes Edmontonians and Canadians are ready for a change from the "arch-conservative bent of the Liberal party and the (Canadian) Alliance."

That's why the 34-year old activist is running for the NDP nomination in the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, currently held by Canadian Alliance MP Rahim Jaffer.


Malcolm hosts two shows on CJSR, the U of Alberta's campus radio station. One "features global African musics and hip hop", and the other is an African news show.

I don't personally know Mr. Azania (I'm new to the city), but from those in the know here I have heard nothing but good things about him and he will almost certainly win the nomination.

Edmonton Strathcona is probably the most winnable riding in Alberta. Provincially the area is held by ND leader Raj Pannu, and municipally one of its councillors is NDPer Michael Phair (who is seriously considering a run for Mayor next election - go Michael!!!).


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JeffWells
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posted 19 December 2003 10:29 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If I had my way, I'd run Lewis in Toronto Centre-Rosedale and Frances Lankin in Beaches-East York.

Of course Rosedale would be high risk, but one of the virtues of a star candidate is gaining a chance in a riding that would otherwise be unwinnable. And I can't think of anyone with a better chance in Rosedale than Lewis.

[ 19 December 2003: Message edited by: JeffWells ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 19 December 2003 10:50 PM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
He'd certainly be a great candidate, and particularly apt to face off against Bill Graham, as I can hardly imagine a more logical foreign minister in an NDP government than Stephen Lewis.

And yes, he'd almost certainly lose. He could get 40% of the vote and still lose, because the ConservaTories will get well under 20%.

If Stephen Lewis wishes to raise the profile/credibility/votes/finances of the party, while taking little risk of having to serve as an opposition MP for four years, Toronto Centre would be an excellent place to do it.

On the other hand, Michael Shapcott has announced his intention to run in Toronto Centre. Perhaps the same effect could be achieved by Lewis running in Toronto - St. Paul.


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Sine Ziegler
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posted 19 December 2003 10:58 PM      Profile for Sine Ziegler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
, sucessful people ( and young women ) running in Alberta.

Of course... it's Alberta.


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Marc
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posted 19 December 2003 11:47 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Glen Murray spoke at the NDP convention in Winnipeg in 2001...if he was a New Democrat in 2000 (one of the low points in Party history) he most certainly should still be today!

[ 19 December 2003: Message edited by: Marc ]


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Albireo
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posted 20 December 2003 12:14 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Guêpe:
If this is the case, that means Fed Office hasnt done it's homework.
I don't think that Layton made any kind of announcement that they had approached Stephen Lewis. From the CBC source linked above, it sounds like some reporter ask him if he had approached Lewis, and the answer was essentially "Yes, but it's unlikely".

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majorvictory
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posted 20 December 2003 12:20 AM      Profile for majorvictory     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Murphy Brown, a woman of colour, is running for the nomination in Toronto-Centre. Like the paratroops in Normandy, Michael Shapcott may find serious resistance when his parachute hits the ground!
From: Toronto | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 20 December 2003 01:30 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Mary Woo-Sims (former BC Human Rights Commissioner) in Vancouver-Kingsway;

Peggy Nash (labour leader);

Judy D'Arcy (labour leader).


That's great news about Woo-Sims and Nash, but I don't think Darcy has announced that she is seeking a nomination. I saw Judy at the BC NDP convention and asked her about running federally - she was pretty lukewarm about it and seemed more inclined to run in the 2005 provincial election. I doubt we'll see Judy run with Jack next spring, she has just moved to BC and is not eager for the extensive travel that being a federal MP would entail.

I do agree with other babblers that the slate of candidates is leaning too much towards middle-aged white men. We need to have more diversity, especially in high-profile winnable seats. What's Maude Barlow doing these days?


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butterfly grrl
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posted 20 December 2003 02:11 AM      Profile for butterfly grrl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hmmmm.

Well I agree that it seems as though most of the declared candidates in high profile ridings are middle aged white men and this poses a serious problem for the NDP in terms of gaining legitimacy among young activists and people who supported the NPI.

I listened to the Current this morning and was disappointed that Jack's answer was to point to Adam being the president of the party. I think that maybe the party is so excited about their momentum and regaining legitimacy, that they are forgetting to court a really important constituency (youth).

I am not really a youth anymore (28) put am going to seek the nomination in Davenport because I *do* have hope for the party and want to see more young people running. (As of yet, I have no received any encouragement from people high up in the party but have lots of support from acticvists across the board).

I have not officially launched the campaign for the nomination yet but will be doing so in the next few weeks and hope that I can help make a demographic shift in who the candidates are.

Look for my website www.kimfry.ca to go up in the New Year!

(BTW---I ran in the 2000 election in my hometown and have been active in the anti-globalization movement, on environmental issues and was on the NPI coordinating committee.)


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radiorahim
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posted 20 December 2003 02:38 AM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
On "The Current" today Judy Rebick was saying that she's very impressed with the drive the NDP is putting on recruiting women candidates. People who have been nominated or are seeking nominations include:

Well, speaking of Judy Rebick ... and women candidates, I think that Judy would be a fantastic candidate herself.


From: a Micro$oft-free computer | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 20 December 2003 11:05 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, I'd like to see her run for office too.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
audra trower williams
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posted 20 December 2003 07:04 PM      Profile for audra trower williams   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah. And she sure doesn't have enough to do
From: And I'm a look you in the eye for every bar of the chorus | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Guêpe
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posted 20 December 2003 08:28 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I don't think that Layton made any kind of announcement that they had approached Stephen Lewis. From the CBC source linked above, it sounds like some reporter ask him if he had approached Lewis, and the answer was essentially "Yes, but it's unlikely".

He obviously wanted to answer the question. Layton is no slouch when it comes to reporters. He knew the headlines would be "Lewis might run in next election." as they have been.

If this type of approach pisses S.L. off, then he would not have done it or he didn't know it would pîss him off.

It's not hard to avoid reporters questions, Layton answered that way on purpose, to get the headlines.


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Guêpe
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posted 20 December 2003 08:29 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What is Francis Lankin up to these days? Might she run?
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Mycroft_
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posted 20 December 2003 08:39 PM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Guêpe:
What is Francis Lankin up to these days? Might she run?


She's CEO of the Toronto United Way and given that she's only been at the job for two or three years it's unlikely she'd give it up any time soon. If she ran it would be in Beaches-East York. Given that Layton has said he wants Stephen Lewis to run in the riding it's likely Lankin has either already said no or Layton otherwise knows she wouldn't be interested.


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Stockholm
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posted 20 December 2003 09:32 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Its interesting that the speculation is about Lewis running in Beaches-East York. All things being equal, Trinity-Spadina would be a more natural constituency for him. I think he either lives there or very close by and he probably has more ties there. But, there are unspoken assumptions about who the NDP candidate in Trinity-Spadina will be making it unnecessary to speculate on who would be the candiadte there.
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Stockholm
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posted 20 December 2003 09:36 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I'm a bit uncomfortable with running both Ed Broadbent and Stephen Lewis. This is the 2004 campaign, not a 1980s retro party. If I was a Liberal strategist looking at this, I'd think it sets up the situation nicely for the "NDP politicians are mired in the past" line.

The Liberals could use this line at their own risk. They seem to be hunting down a bunch of old retreads themselves. If old hacks like Frank McKenna etc... are on the Liberal roster it will be truly the pot calling the kettle black to complain about Broadbent making a comeback! Martin himself is no spring chicken either. I hope he gets checked regularly for prostate cancer.


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Newbie
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posted 20 December 2003 09:40 PM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I hope Stephen Harper gets checked for it daily.
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Sammy D
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posted 20 December 2003 10:27 PM      Profile for Sammy D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Most people here seem to think that a Lewis candidacy is unlikely, but let's just remember that Broadbent was a "very remote" possibility before he jumped on board this week.
From: Stratford ON | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 20 December 2003 10:55 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Newbie:
I hope Stephen Harper gets checked for it daily.

rotfl!


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Schmillis
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posted 21 December 2003 06:21 AM      Profile for Schmillis     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Speaking of young activists, Malcom Azania (better known as "Minister Faust", CJSR 88.5 radio personality from "The Terrordome") is running for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona against incumbent Alliance MP Rahim Jaffer (radio faker) and current do-nothing Liberal MLA Debbie Carlson. I don't know what his chances are (this IS Alberta, which is bad, but it's also Edmonton, which is good, Edmontonians think a little differently than other Albertans), but if he were to win, he would be an AMAZING MP.

Six months ago I would have said he had no chance, but the way things are going federally (the Conservative collapse, the Martin takeover of the "Liberals", the NDP's sudden rise in profile), I'm really not sure what might happen, even here in Alberta. I mean, realisticly, outide Edmonton the best we can hope for is a good showing, but inside Edmonton, we might even win one or two. Edm. Strathcona and Edm. East are out best chances, I'd say.

This is our best chance in decades! I think it's time we put away our natural pessimism and concentrate on going out there and slugging it out and winning as many seats as we can possibly win!! If we can't do it this time, then when, really? Come on everyone, I know pessimism is easier (I've been in the NDP for 8 years, believe me, I know), but this is our chance! The puzzle pieces are all falling into place! The Conservatives are utterly in dis-array and vulnerable as hell, Paul Martin has stolen the Liberals and moved then drastically rightward, the centre-left is wide open, and Jack Layton is bringing attention to our party like never before, now it's our job to go out there and do the groundwork and win seat by seat.

Wow, I got a little carried away there. My apologies, maybe a few too many beers at the company Christmas Party tonight. But nonetheless, I'm sick to death of pessimism, it kills our spirit, our drive, and we're way too young to be this pessimistic anyways. Let's go out there and make history! And most of all, let's not screw it up, because remember, our kids and grandkids will look back on this election as our "big chance", so do we want to be remembered as the architects of a whole new path for Canada? Or do we want to be remembered as the group who took our best chance in decades and blew it because we were too pessimistic to sense the winds changing?

I'll take the first option, myself.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 21 December 2003 09:15 AM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Bringing back former prominent NDPers successfully is all a matter of proper marketing...


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Geneva
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posted 21 December 2003 11:13 AM      Profile for Geneva     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
for Lewis, who has loudly and repeatedly said that the AIDS campaign in Africa would be his signature issue for the next 4-5 years, even for the rest of his life, to then drop it to a great degree and campaign in Canadian federal politics would be astounding. Really, a U-turn.

Sounds very unlikely to me; what would he say to Kofi -- We really HAVE to settle that softwood lumber dispute, once and for all ?

[ 21 December 2003: Message edited by: Geneva ]


From: um, well | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 21 December 2003 11:38 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Haha, Newbie!
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sine Ziegler
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posted 21 December 2003 12:46 PM      Profile for Sine Ziegler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think Maude Barlow would run for us either. I read her biography and she is quite against party politics and more into changing Canada the interest group way. It SUCKS but some people just think that way...
From: Calgary | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Steve N
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posted 21 December 2003 01:39 PM      Profile for Steve N     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by JeffWells:
If I had my way, I'd run Lewis in Toronto Centre-Rosedale and Frances Lankin in Beaches-East York.

Of course Rosedale would be high risk, but one of the virtues of a star candidate is gaining a chance in a riding that would otherwise be unwinnable. And I can't think of anyone with a better chance in Rosedale than Lewis.


David Macdonald, a former Tory cabinet minister under Mulroney ran in TCR a few years ago, and got maybe 4 or 5 votes. He was known to Rosedale, had the connections, spoke the language and emphasised what he could of NDP policies that were attractive there. There really aren't all that many north of Bloor who would vote NDP no matter who ran. There's a few rental buildings and some progressive-artsy types (ie Margaret Atwood) but not enough to win a poll.

Graham has a good presence among the riding's co-ops (the riding has the largest number of co-ops of any riding in Canada afaik) due to the fight against downloading co-ops to the province a few years back. Shapcott has a "winnable" fight for the co-ops, he was also deep in that downloading fight.

Graham also has presence in Church/Wellesley, he is obviously perceived as an advocate for gay/lesbian issues in cabinet. The only candidate who could challenge him around C/W is one who's been active on gay issues and worked with gay community groups. I can't think of anyone besides Layton himself who could mount a challenge there.

Lewis would have very little to offer directly in any of the riding's neighbourhoods.


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 21 December 2003 01:55 PM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The only way I see Lewis running is if it was in a riding he was almost certain to lose in (like Toronto Centre Rosedale) but through which he could garner a lot of media attention for the NDP and help boost its fortuntes elsewhere (and perhaps also force the Liberals to divert resources from Toronto Danforth).

That way, he'd be helping the party and doing his bit as a loyal soldier without having to commit the next four years to parliamentary politics in the place of his real passion, Africa.

[ 21 December 2003: Message edited by: Mycroft ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Guêpe
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posted 21 December 2003 02:28 PM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Wouldn't running for Parliament force Lewis to give up his UN job?
From: Ottawa | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 21 December 2003 02:39 PM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I expect one can take a leave of absence.
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 21 December 2003 03:49 PM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Steve N:
David Macdonald, a former Tory cabinet minister under Mulroney ran in TCR a few years ago, and got maybe 4 or 5 votes.

Actually, he was under Clark, not Mulroney (didn't make cabinet under Mulroney). He got 20.6% of the vote and finished second, slightly ahead of the PCs (19.3%) and well ahead of Reform (7.8%). Graham got 49.2% of the vote.

In 2000, Graham got 55.3% of the vote. The Tories went down to 17.2% and the Canadian Alliance went up to 10.7. The NDP vote collapsed, going down to 11.2%.

A star candidate like Lewis, coupled with the end of the PCs, could definitely take 20%, possibly 30% (like Brent Hawkes did) or more, but that's not enough. Graham had a majority in a four-way race and will likely do at least 60% this time. I really can't see him not taking at least half that Tory vote, which means our success depends on dissaffected Liberals.

Fortunately, the riding DOES contain a number of Liberals with good reason to find Paul Martin a less palatable prime minister than Jean Chrétien. However, that would require a candidate with credentials on gay issues, which the potential candidates lack (I am not implying they are unsupportive in any way, merely that it hasn't been an issue they've been involved with)

One thing we have to keep remembering is that not only is this is no longer a 4-party system, but in many places the Alliance is so weak that we will need percentages in the mid-to-high 40s to win seats. There will be fewer seats won with around 40% of the vote.

Sometimes I've been wondering if Martin is playing up the NDP just so he's not left in the unpalatable position of having no real opposition at all. So far all regional numbers indicate a real collapse in the right outside of Alberta and the Maritimes -- and I'm not buying the Maritimes yet.


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Geneva
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posted 21 December 2003 04:54 PM      Profile for Geneva     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lewsi's UN gig is not strictly a "job", more an assignment with pay for prominent ex-official, like Joe Clark's Cyprus mediator post
From: um, well | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Steve N
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posted 21 December 2003 05:50 PM      Profile for Steve N     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Newbie:

Actually, he was under Clark, not Mulroney (didn't make cabinet under Mulroney). He got 20.6% of the vote and finished second, slightly ahead of the PCs (19.3%) and well ahead of Reform (7.8%). Graham got 49.2% of the vote.

When I said 4 or 5 votes, I meant NoB. The theory was he could make a breakthrough there, he didn't.

I agree with all you said though.


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 December 2003 07:54 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I actually think that Toronto-Centre Rosedale could be winnable for the NDP, but only under the folloiwng circumstances:

1. Graham would have to step down opening up the way to a very divisive Liberal nomination battle. Ideally a Liberal community activist with roots in the gay community gets DEFEATED by an elitist corporate type (someone like Stephen LeDrew).

2. The NDP gets a really stellar star candidate who can appeal to disaaffected Liberals and errant Red Tories.

3. The NDP has a great national campaign that sees the popular vote in Ontario get over the 20% mark, coupled with a relatively weak Liberal campaign

4. A strong Conservative candiadte who can also eat into the Liberal vote (ie: a John Tory type).

If every single one of these things happened simultaneously, the NDP could win TCR. But it would be like an eclipse of the sun.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Steve N
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posted 21 December 2003 08:50 PM      Profile for Steve N     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
I actually think that Toronto-Centre Rosedale could be winnable for the NDP, but only under the folloiwng circumstances:

I more or less agree with all your points, but I'd break it down differantly. T-C has 4-5 very differant constituancies:
-Rosedale/Yorkville are mostly people who make their living by "owning" rather than working, and never support the NDP.
-Church/Wellesly/Cabbagetown is predominantly gay-lesbian and will support a candidate who has a strong presence in the community regardless of party.
-St. Jamestown/Regent/Moss are poor, mostly can't or don't vote, but can be coaxed to bring in about 3k or so votes with the right candidate.
-Co-ops will go NDP if Graham leaves, but if he runs it will be a fight, maybe we can win, maybe not.
-The new condos are a newish demographic that hasn't necessarily focused on local riding issues yet. They will probably go with strongest national campaign for now. They can be appealed to with the right approach, ie helping the homeless means less homeless on the street and less "trade" and nuisance in the neighbourhood.

Any candidate that expects to win has to appeal to at least three, and preferably four of these demographics. At the moment, Graham can do well with at least four of them. I can't see Lewis doing all that well with any of them.

[ 21 December 2003: Message edited by: Steve N ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 21 December 2003 08:51 PM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
If every single one of these things happened simultaneously, the NDP could win TCR. But it would be like an eclipse of the sun.

That's true. Graham may well step down before the 2008 election, the nomination fight could be divisive, the NDP could have a stellar candidate and run a strong national campaign against a weak Liberal campaign leading to over 20% in Ontario, but that talk about a strong Conservative candidate, now that's just pie-in-the-sky foolishness.

[ 21 December 2003: Message edited by: Newbie ]


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 21 December 2003 09:00 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
-Rosedale/Yorkville are mostly people who make their living by "owning" rather than working, and never support the NDP.

YOu'd be surprised how many NDP lawn signs have popped up in Rosedale and it was a forest of David Miller signs there in the mayoral election. The NDP will never carry that part of the riding, but every extra vote counts no matter where it comes from. Remember people like Clayton Ruby live in Rosedale too!! There are also some people who made a fortune in entertainment etc... who may be very small "l" liberal and radical chic!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
JeffWells
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posted 05 January 2004 10:29 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Anyone have an update on Lewis's decision? Has he ruled it out? It seems increasingly unlikely that he'd jump in, but it's too wonderful a fantasy to let go entirely.

And I saw a rumour in the Globe on the weekend that Olivia Chow may not be running after all. What's up with that?


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Tommy
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posted 07 January 2004 02:56 AM      Profile for Tommy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I have been told by a very reliable source that David Lewis won't run unfortunately. As for Olivia, it is better if she doesn't run quite frankly because of bad perception of a husband/wife tandum, monopolizing the party that may create.
From: Edmonton | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 07 January 2004 03:53 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Tommy:
I have been told by a very reliable source that David Lewis won't run unfortunately.

I don't think David Lewis would be quite up to the task of running for office at this point. Now Stephen on the other hand


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Tommy
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posted 07 January 2004 04:08 AM      Profile for Tommy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
gee, that was embarassing! I meant Stephen!
how dumb of me!!

From: Edmonton | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 07 January 2004 05:57 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Tommy:
As for Olivia, it is better if she doesn't run quite frankly because of bad perception of a husband/wife tandum, monopolizing the party.

Olivia Chow is an exception to every rule in the book. We need her. We want her.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 07 January 2004 06:32 AM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
i find the tone of this thread really unsettling.

i mean, what do we consider to be more important:

stephen lewis mobilising world resources against AIDS or stephen lewis being a backbench NDP federal politician?


From: england (hometown of toronto) | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Geneva
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posted 07 January 2004 06:44 AM      Profile for Geneva     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
precisely

well, Lewis would be very front-bench, and a quasi-leader, but still ...

[ 07 January 2004: Message edited by: Geneva ]


From: um, well | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 07 January 2004 06:51 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

I have been told by a very reliable source that David Lewis won't run unfortunately. As for Olivia, it is better if she doesn't run quite frankly because of bad perception of a husband/wife tandum, monopolizing the party that may create.

Then again, the NDP dearly needs some non-white representation in caucus, and Olivia will surely win in Trinity Spadina if she does run. Of course if the NDP wants to free up easier win seats like T-S and Beaches-East York for lesser known candidates, they might want to plunk Olivia Chow in a riding like Davenport or Etobicoke Centre. Likewise with Stephen Lewis, as people have already suggested, run him in T-C or in his old Scarborough stomping grounds.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 07 January 2004 09:37 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Olivia Chow couldn't win in Etobicoke Centre. No NDPer could.
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 07 January 2004 10:28 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yes! Davenport would be lovely, thanks! Come to mama, Olivia!
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 07 January 2004 08:24 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Olivia's mama lives at Jack and Olivia'v house, which is in Trinity-Spadina.

My serious point is that the key attraction of Olivia running is the incredible base of support that she's gained in her ward/riding, through years and years of hard work (between elections and during elections). Why would we even consider squandering that work to run her somewhere other than T-S?

[ 08 January 2004: Message edited by: Scott Piatkowski ]


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
jrootham
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posted 08 January 2004 03:55 AM      Profile for jrootham     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
To be blunt, Olivia winning T-S is not a lock. the Liberal margin here has been quite stable over the last three elections. Don Heap held the seat before that in significant measure on personal popularity.

This is not to say it is not winnable, but it will be a tough fight and a small margin.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 08 January 2004 05:39 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

Olivia Chow couldn't win in Etobicoke Centre. No NDPer could.

Why not? If the NDP can't win Etobicoke Centre, I guess the NDP can't win 80-90% of Ontario ridings. I guess the NDP can't ever be official opposition, or form a government.

Unless 80% of Etobicoke residents are Christian Fundamentalists/Evangelicals or the median income is $100,000, I think this riding like most is winnable in ideal circumstances.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 08 January 2004 05:46 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

To be blunt, Olivia winning T-S is not a lock. the Liberal margin here has been quite stable over the last three elections. Don Heap held the seat before that in significant measure on personal popularity.

Who was leader of the NDP when Don Heap was MP?

Ontario-based Ed Broadbent.

Who was leader of the NDP the previous 3 elections?

Yukon-based Audrey McLaughlin and Halifax-based Alexa McDonough

Who is the leader of the NDP now?

Ontario-based Jack Layton.

The moral of the story, people prefer leaders that live in their home province or region. The NDP is going to do better and win more seats in Ontario just by virtue of having an Ontario-based leader. Of course Ontario is a very seat-rich province, so how successful the NDP will be is the great unknown.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mycroft_
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posted 08 January 2004 06:34 AM      Profile for Mycroft_     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by LukeVanc:

Why not? If the NDP can't win Etobicoke Centre, I guess the NDP can't win 80-90% of Ontario ridings. I guess the NDP can't ever be official opposition, or form a government.


Quite the contrary, in Ontario the NDP won governent in 1990 and opposition in 1975 and 1987 without winning Etobicoke Centre or its predecessors.

quote:

Unless 80% of Etobicoke residents are Christian Fundamentalists/Evangelicals or the median income is $100,000, I think this riding like most is winnable in ideal circumstances.

It's an upper middle class riding and one where the NDP has never even come close. Etobicoke North and Etobicoke Centre on the other hand...


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 08 January 2004 10:38 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Mycroft:
Etobicoke North and Etobicoke Centre on the other hand...

Not to mention Etobicoke Lakeshore


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Holy Holy Holy
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posted 08 January 2004 02:11 PM      Profile for Holy Holy Holy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If Olivia can break through in the west-end working class section of Trinity Spadina she can win easy. If not, it will be tough, if not impossible. Rosario Marchese does it election after election provincially. Federally it never happens. Dan Heap used to win without those votes but demographically that doesn't work anymore.
From: Holy | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 08 January 2004 03:09 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Don Heap held the seat before that in significant measure on personal popularity

I first started working on Dan Heap's campaigns in 1971. I don't think I ever missed one. Dan Heap originally won the riding against Liberal favorite Jim Coutts after having put about twelve years in as local city councillor for that area. Just like Olivia. And Dan Heap used the party identification heavily in winning each and every time.

Sure, after 20 plus years, he also had significant personal popularity. But so does Olivia. Of course one has to agree that it will be a "tough fight". But if Michael Valpy can come close, with insignificant "real" roots in the community, then Olivia Chow has an excellent chance to win.

In fact, I agree with the poster who said, above, that this election gives us the best chance in decades of putting some numbers on the board.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Kloch
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posted 08 January 2004 03:10 PM      Profile for Kloch   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Scott Piatkowski:

Not to mention Etobicoke Lakeshore


Etobicoke-Lakeshore, my home base, is in a state of flux. There's alot of development going on in those areas and new people are moving in. It's still too early to tell whether or not E-L becomes another Beaches or another Burlington. As for Etobicoke-Centre, I suggest you look at the average cost of housing in that area. Predominantly wealthy, older, upper-class anglo-saxon protestants. Not that there aren't poor people living there (in fact, plenty of immigrants boxed in high-rise apartments where they can't bother anyone) but they don't vote.

Centre has been represented by Cabinet Ministers the last two governments. Whichever way the country goes, so goes Etobicoke-Centre, except for the NDP.


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Olly
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posted 08 January 2004 03:39 PM      Profile for Olly     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I posted in another thread a National Post article which quotes a Liberal source as saying their internal polling shows Maria Minna, Jean Augustine, Tony Ianno and Dennis Mills would all lose to an NDP candidate if the election were held today. I don't know if they were testing particular candidates or not (presumably they would be). The link:

http://makeashorterlink.com/?Z13524107


From: Toronto | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
marcy
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posted 09 January 2004 12:49 AM      Profile for marcy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm really glad to see such optimism and some plausible analyses of places in Toronto that I don't have a clue about. Here in BC, let's hope this ever-more mysterious Liberal-Liberal scandal knocks the Martinets for a loop. Along with this stupid Star Wars idea (here we go agin) I do believe that the early predictions of a Martin juggernaut will prove to be way off base. Here in BC we need some electable high profile candidates.
From: vancouver | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Peacefulnotion
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posted 09 January 2004 12:56 AM      Profile for Peacefulnotion     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
At Stephen's age, I would hope he walks first, works up to a jog and then runs. Otherwise he may be inviting a heart attack.

But seriously, this would be great news. He is one of the finest men Canada has produced. It would be great if his lovely wife would also run for the NDP. They have been living apart for so long due to his job committments that it would be splendid if she would represent the people in another Toronto riding.


From: Guyville | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 09 January 2004 06:44 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

It's an upper middle class riding and one where the NDP has never even come close. Etobicoke North and Etobicoke Centre on the other hand...

Okay, so you're saying I was right then?


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 09 January 2004 11:19 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm sure Mycroft meant Lakeshore there instead of Centre. The day the NDP wins Etobicoke Centre is the day that the NDP sweeps almost every riding in Toronto. That is to say: never.
From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged

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