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Author Topic: Reaching 50 seats: Ridings to target?
mijawara
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posted 15 December 2003 12:41 AM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
First-time babbler, long-time babble voyeur here.

Interested in comments from the crowd on this proposition: If Jack's serious about besting the party's '88 showing and reaching 50 seats, he's going to have to ignore those much-commented-upon polls showing strong national numbers and focus on the scores of riding-level battles that will deliver New Democrats to Parliament.

Toronto-Danforth is a must for obvious reasons. A few GTA seats (TS, Davenport, Beaches-East York, etc.) should be at the top of the list; same for Ottawa Centre and Vancouver-Kingsway, maybe Halifax West. Question is, where else should the party be concentrating its efforts? And who is/should it be running in those places to win?

[ 15 December 2003: Message edited by: mijawara ]


From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 15 December 2003 07:46 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hello mijawara.

These kind of threads are always fun. It's always interesting to speculate. I'll just stick to B.C. and let others comment on the other provinces. I have put the ridings in order of probability that the NDP can win them in 2004 under Jack Layton.

1)Burnaby Douglas: Svend Robinson vs some young, obnoxious, flakey Liberal party hack by the name of Bill Cunningham (puke).

2)Vancouver-East: Libby Davies vs ?

3)Burnaby New Westminister: Demographically, a perfect riding for the NDP to contest. The NDP is traditionally very strong in these neighbourhoods. I don't know who would be interested in contesting the riding, honestly. Maybe Gerry Scott.

4)Kingsway: Mary Woo Simms of the NDP vs ?

5) New West-Coquitlam: Demographically, a very good riding for the NDP. Incorporates the working class neighbourhoods of Coquitlam and New West. Perhaps a former provincial MLA, e.g. Mike Farnworth, could contest this riding.

6)Kamloops-Thompson: The former NDP stronghold. With Nelson Riis out of the picture, the NDP needs to get in a strong populist who can hold this riding for another few decades.

7)Vancouver Island North: Definite maybe for the NDP. Possible candidate? I don't know.

8)Nanaimo Cowichan: will be contested by NDP's Jean Crowder, currenty a town councillor. Strong possibility for the NDP.

9)Nanaimo Alberni: Definite maybe. Candidate: how about Leonard Krog!

10)Surrey North: Solidly working class NDP territory. Would be nice to see one of the several NDP city councillors take a crack at Surrey North.

11)Newton-North Delta: Working class, very multicultural. Again, we can draw from municipal or provincial political circles.

12)Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: The NDP will have a good shot. I am guessing lots of people will be contesting the NDP nomination. Who would be a good pick, I really don't know. I don't think Moe is going to put his hat in the ring.

13)Vancouver-Centre: incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry is being challanged by former NPA councillor Lynne Kennedy and a 27 year old political novice. If Hedy Fry loses to Lynne Kennedy, this will definetly create an opening for the NDP. Even if Hedy does run, the NDP with Jack as leader has a good shot. The NDP could run Ian Waddell, Jim Diva, or (hopefully not) Marijuana Party leader Marc Emery.

14)Port Moody-Westwood- Port Coquitlam: A very interesting riding. Very diverse jumble of neighbourhoods. Porty Moody is solidly middle class, Port Coquitlam is solidly working class NDP, and Westwood is solidly upper middle class. James Moore will probably be the incumbent. My guess is that a Liberal will take this riding, but a strong NDP showing in B.C. and a recognizable NDP candidate could push this riding in our favour. Poco Mayor Scott Young would be a good choice for the NDP.

15)Skeena Bulkley Valley: good possibility for the NDP. I'm sure quite a few people will contest the NDP nomination.

16)Fleetwood-Port Kells: not as sure a bet as the other north Surrey ridings, but the NDP needs a strong candidate here nonetheless.

17)Dewdney-Alouette: previously strong NDP territory at the provincial level. Would need a very strong federal candidate to go anywhere federally.

18)Saanich Gulf Islands: A more remote possibility. Would require a very strong candidate.

19)Southern Interior: A long shot, but the NDP could take it in a good election.

20)Cariboo-Prince George: A long shot, but the NDP could take it in a good election.

21)North Okanagan-Shuswap: A long shot, but the NDP could take it in a good election.

22,23) Kootney-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla: if the CPC completely falls apart in 2004, by electing say Peter MacKay as leader, the NDP could take these final two ridings.

That leaves only 13 ridings where the NDP really, truly, doesn't have a chance in hell. These ridings range from Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, and North Vancouver (too wealthy) to Abbotsford, Langely, Chilliwack, and Kelowna (too Christian), to Victoria (incumbent is too strong), to PG-Peace River and Richmond (just plain anti NDP).

5 ridings most likely to stay CPC: Abby, Langely, Chilli, Kelowna, & PG-Peace River (darn right wing Christians!).

5 ridings most likely to stay or go red: Victoria, Richmond Centre, Richmond East/South Delta, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Centre.

I'm not putting Vancouver-South on the list of safe Liberal seats only because the riding consists mainly of Christian fundamentalist Chinese and a large Sikh community. If same sex marriage becomes an election issue, this is a riding that will go to the CPC. The CA did very well here in 2000.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
terra1st
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posted 15 December 2003 08:36 AM      Profile for terra1st     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by LukeVanc:
22,23) Kootney-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla: if the CPC completely falls apart in 2004, by electing say Peter MacKay as leader, the NDP could take these final two ridings.


I think the odds that the communist party will elect mackay as leader are pretty long, so don't count on their vote to collapse...

I can comment on saskatchewan, though I don't know much about the whole province...

I think Nettie has a chance to knock off pankiw... His voters are just jerks, and no matter what happens they will support him... that said, the star phoenix has been taking pot-shots at him in nearly every article they wrote during his run for mayor... Nettie ran for the leadership of the provincial NDP, and is a past president of the NFU, so she has a good profile... SHe is also really bright, and will beat anyone in a debate. THe one wildcard is how the Starphoenix will portray her in their editorials - when she ran for Provincial NDP leadership they kept calling her "nutty nettie" cause she's about as left as svend robinson... I think this one seat stands a good shot, depending on the Conservative running there. (seat is Saskatoon Humbolt)

I also think that Denis G. should stand a good shot at taking his seat back. He lost it last election, but I think he will win it now. (seat is Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar)

Don't know about many of the other seats, but I hope that someone can take out the homophobe in the CPC... It would be nice to kick the conserves out of saskatchewan this election.


From: saskatoon | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
JeffWells
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posted 15 December 2003 12:59 PM      Profile for JeffWells     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
First post for me, too. Thanks for just the right topic to bring me out of my shell!

Ottawa Centre - Has Ed announced yet his decision?

Trinity Spadina - Ianno's snub by Martin is a great plus. Is Olivia Chow definitely running?

Beaches-East York

Toronto-Danforth - Should be easier with Mills still shut out of cabinet.

Niagra Centre - Wishful thinking? But Kormos is so strong here provincially. But if the campaign really takes flight, I'm looking for a pick up here.

Windsor West

St. John's West - Will Greg Malone give it another go?

Bras-d'Or-Cape Breton

Halifax West

Churchill River - Laliberte seems even more a liability to the Liberals than before.

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

Yukon: Good chance to take it back. Jack visited recently, and definitely a target riding.


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Tim
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posted 15 December 2003 01:07 PM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think we'll do better overall in Saskatchewan. The 2000 election came on the heels of a near-death experience in the provincial election of 1999. And I believe strategic voting (to stop the Alliance) also played a role.

I agree with terra1st, in the Saskatoon area two seats are winnable:
- Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Dennis Gruending, former MP - nominated candidate). Gruending won this in the 1999 by-election, relatively easily, but lost by about 70 votes in 2000.
- Saskatoon-Humboldt (Nettie Wiebe, former president of the National Farmers Union, provincial leadership candidate - declared candidate). Chances are Jim Pankiw will run as an independent, so the right-wing vote should be split. Nettie's candidacy, assuming she wins the nomination (I'm not aware of any other high-profile candidates), should also bring out an army of lapsed members and progressives who aren't necessarily members to work on the campaign. The NDP (with Dennis Gruending as the candidate) almost won this seat in 1997.

In the Regina area, our two incumbents, who won by very narrow margins last time, should be able to hold their seats (with increased majorities):
Palliser (Dick Proctor)
Regina-Qu'Appelle (Lorne Nystrom)

In addition, as discussed earlier in the Larry Spencer thread, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre should also be winnable. This was a really narrow loss in 2000. (Though I doubt if Larry Spencer will be the Tory candidate!) I don't know anything about potential candidates.

(The fourth Regina seat, Wascana, is held by Ralph Goodale, who will be untouchable.)

So, I think there are five reasonable targets in SK.

I wouldn't count on any other seats, although I suppose anything can happen, with the new Tory party, and momentum in the polls (the latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows a 3-way split in SK/MB). One longshot:

- Prince Albert: the city of Prince Albert is strong provincially, and we also won the provincial riding of Saskatchewan Rivers in November. Another factor will be how the David Orchard/PC supporters vote this time (David Orchard was the PC candidate in this riding last time). This was an NDP seat in the 1980s (after Diefenbaker's death), though I'm not sure how substantially the boundaries have changed since then.

If the Tory vote does collapse substantially, two other longshots (and I mean longshots) would be Battlefords-Lloydminster, and Yorkton-Melville. Unfortunately provincial NDP votes in SK have a nasty habit of turning into Liberal or Tory votes federally.


From: Paris of the Prairies | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 15 December 2003 05:27 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What about knocking off Laliberte in Churchill River? That area is spuer-safe NDP proivincially and Laliberte is pretty lackluster!

My list of realistic new acquisitions would be as follows:

St. John's East (only with the right candidate such as Malone)
Saint John - if Elsie Wayne retires and Elizabeth decides to go federal (just me musing)
Sydney-Victoria - just because
Manicouagan - if Ducasse really gets rolling

Ottawa Centre - obvious reasons
Trinity-Spadina
Danforth
Beaches - East York - all for obvious reasons
Nickel Belt
Timmins
Kenora - we have them provincially so there should be some infrastructure
Hamilton Centre - ???
Selkirk-Interlake in MB
all the seats mentioned above in Sask
BC

Van-Kingsway
Van Centre - under the right circumstances
Burnaby-New West
New West Coquitlam
North Surrey
Esquimalt etc...
Nanaimo
Comox-Alberni
North Island
Skeena
Kootenay-Boundary etc...- if a star candiadte runs

Pardon me if I got a lot of riding names wrong - gotta get used to the new map.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Political Will
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posted 16 December 2003 10:00 AM      Profile for Political Will     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hi all, this is my first time posting on babble.

I'm not sure about individual ridings outside of NL, but I think we can definitely target at least one of the seven seats here.

Which seats will depend in large part on the candidates we can attract. Voters here often vote for the candidate.

We have a good shot at either or both of the St. John's seats. With the former St. John's E and W (soon to be N and S) being held by Tories, and much of the more rural (and Tory) parts of the district cut off. Plus a strong dislike of the Reform/Alliance, puts both incumbents in a difficult position. People here are also much more likely to remember budget slashing Martin than many more prosperous regions.

I don't see Greg running in St. John's S, and after a failed Mayoral bid, since the last election, he may not be as strong.

That said, he would have won last time under the proposed St. John's S boundaries.

We have come consistently close to taking a federal seat in St. john's and now a number of factors are working in our favor. New boundaries, broken Tories, right of center Liberals, and a better provincial showing.

I think it would be a real failure for the Central Campaign to not seriously target at least one seat here. The ground is ripe for a serious NDP swing if we can run a strong campaign.


From: Red Square, The Rock | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
vickyinottawa
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posted 16 December 2003 10:07 AM      Profile for vickyinottawa   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
welcome to the new babblers!

quote:
Originally posted by JeffWells:

Ottawa Centre - Has Ed announced yet his decision?

[/QB]


This week.


From: lost in the supermarket | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Tim
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posted 16 December 2003 10:46 AM      Profile for Tim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
What about knocking off Laliberte in Churchill River? That area is spuer-safe NDP proivincially and Laliberte is pretty lackluster!
Actually, I gather that Laliberte is a formidable organizer, especially in the more remote areas of the riding (reserves, etc.) - and that he will be hard to beat if he wins the Liberal nomination. All that travelling seems to pay off...

From: Paris of the Prairies | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Dan Minkin
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posted 16 December 2003 10:57 AM      Profile for Dan Minkin     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
All three territories (one riding each) are relatively strong for us and were all second place finishes in 2000; the problem in Nunavut is that the incumbent Liberal was returned with almost 70% of the vote in 2000. On the other hand, there are so few votes there that one might say it's anyone's game... the 50-point difference between the Lib and NDP candidates was under 4000 votes. "Western Arctic" (ie NWT) is a better shot by virtue of being more of a 3-way race, and Yukon has gotta be a pickup, we only lost it by 70 votes in 2000 and had held it for a long time before that.

I'm surprised that in discussion of Ontario, only Stockholm has mentioned the north. I'd think Kenora-Rainy River would be our best shot, Nault having become unpopular among the Native population. Of course they're planning to divide it into Kenora and Rainy River, so I don't know where we'll fair better... Rainy River is the half Hampton's held provincially since 87 or so. After that, yeah, Nickle Belt and Timmins-James Bay are probably our best. Anyone know if Tony Martin might run in Sault Ste Marie?

Having said all this, I somewhat disagree with the premise of this thread. Ignoring poll numbers and fighting by-election style in the A ridings is the strategy for when you're trying to keep party status, not for when you're aiming for 50 seats. You only get 50 seats when you get a few regional sweeps going, and the poll numbers are high enough to spill out of the key ridings. Then again, we can't just assume that we're in the running for such regional sweeps just cause we say we are...


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Marc
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posted 16 December 2003 01:53 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Ignoring poll numbers and fighting by-election style in the A ridings is the strategy for when you're trying to keep party status, not for when you're aiming for 50 seats. You only get 50 seats when you get a few regional sweeps going, and the poll numbers are high enough to spill out of the key ridings. Then again, we can't just assume that we're in the running for such regional sweeps just cause we say we are...

I think you have a good point but I believe we need to also have strong candidates and individual riding by riding campaigns which will tale some of the pressure off of Jack and win some seemingly unlikely ridings. If we always assume that some ridings will never turn NDP...they never will. It is important to create a base in riding so that we can build on them in the future. We will be much less financially constrained in the next election which should allow us to target many more ridings and funnel money towards establishing a base there.

From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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posted 16 December 2003 05:54 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Two quick notes:

1. If Ducasse contests Manicouagan again, it will be a vanity project and a serious waste of the party's best asset in Quebec. The 2000 candidate there won 386 votes, and even Ducasse himself took less than 1% in '97. Whether the NDP can win seats in Quebec is a topic for another thread (any takers?), but Ducasse is crucial to any meaningful strategy in that province, and should be shopping for a riding in francophone Montreal (Laurier, Hochelaga, etc.)

2. Except Yukon, the North will not be in play for the NDP next year. Liberals have traditionally owned the aboriginal vote, and if Stephen Kakfwi makes his federal debut in Martin's Cabinet, Nunavut and Western Arctic will be locked down. Nor is Kenora a likely pickup, with AFN vice-chair Charles Fox likely to oust Nault with Martin's blessing. Better to focus on the other northern Ontario ridings previously mentioned that lean NDP provincially.

Appreciate the comment on the rationale for this thread, more on that soon.


From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 16 December 2003 06:14 PM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

I'm surprised that in discussion of Ontario, only Stockholm has mentioned the north. I'd think Kenora-Rainy River would be our best shot, Nault having become unpopular among the Native population.

Although Martin may be trying (for opportunism sake) to court the aboriginal vote, this man simply does not have the same currency and credibility as Jean Chretien. Jean Chretien has been dealing with First Nations issues for the better of 4 decades. Paul Martin is the finance minister that First Nations communities can point to for slashing all of Canadians' social services.

Although Paul Martin may be able to pull in a few big names, the northern vote is going to be very vulnerable for the Liberals. The NDP needs to have a comprehensive northern plan that can be negotiated with northern communities that we can take to them in the 2004 election.

Ridings like Kenora, Churchill, Yukon, NWT, and Skeena Bulkley Valley should all be within the NDP's reach. Nunavut, I have my reservations about... this riding was created by the Liberals as a home for immense government largesse and I think people here are too comfy with the money provided in the Chretien era to switch to the NDP, even if we would provide more money.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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posted 16 December 2003 06:25 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Not sure Skeena-Bulkley Valley should be considered a likely pickup, LakeVanc; the riding created by redistribution joins a lot of CA/CPC-friendly territory to the old Skeena seat.

Met one of the prospective NDP candidates last night, a young Smithers guy named Nathan Cullen. If he was running in TO, I'd bet my next paycheque on him; as it is, only a sea change in the popular vote could win him his coveted seat across from PM & Co. Guess we'll see.


From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 16 December 2003 08:06 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Political Will:
We have a good shot at either or both of the St. John's seats.

Is there a reason not to mention Humber - St. Barbe - Baie Verte? It was the best NDP seat in 2000, both in percentage terms (26.1%) and in total votes (8,297), and the only one where the NDP stood a serious second (no disrespect to Amanda Will who came second in Labrador, but she had only 12.4%.)

And since the NDP got 13.1% of the vote in Newfoundland as a whole, proportional representation would entitle the NDP to one of Newfoundland's seven seats. No way can the party write it off.

[ 16 December 2003: Message edited by: Wilfred Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 16 December 2003 10:07 PM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's important to remember that the 50 targeted seats are actually in addition to our incumbants, so really we're targeting 63. My guess at new targets:

Newfoundland & Labrador:
St. John's South

PEI:
Charlottetown

Nova Scotia:
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour (technically not an incumbant, since Lill is retiring)
Sydney--Victoria
Halifax West

New Brunswick:
Saint John
Beauséjour

Québec: (I'm pretty sure there's more than one targeted riding. My guesses are as good - or bad - as anybody's)
Manicouagan
Nunavik--Eeyou
Saint-Lambert
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert
Rosemont--La Petite Patrie

Ontario:
Ottawa Centre
Oshawa
Beaches--East York
Toronto--Danforth
Trinity--Spadina
Davenport
Parkdale--High Park
Kitchener--Waterloo
London--Fanshawe
London North Centre
Hamilton West
Welland
Timmins--James Bay
Sault Ste. Marie (the new riding reflects very much the old Algoma provincial boundaries. Jack has asked Bud Wildman, former Natural Resources minister and Algoma MPP to run, and rumour has it Bud hasn't said no to Jack. With the new boundaries, there's a great potential for a pickup)
Nickel-Belt
Kenora

Manitoba:
Selkirk--Interlake
Brandon--Souris

Saskatchewan:
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre
Saskatoon--Humboldt

Alberta:
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton--Strathcona
Calgary South (or North) Centre

BC:
Burnaby--New Westminster
Kamloops--Thompson
Victoria
Surrey North
Newton--North Delta
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver Island North
Vancouver Centre
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
New Westminster--Coquitlam
Nanaimo--Cowichan
Nanaimo--Alberni

Territories:
Yukon
Western Arctic

Also bare in mind there's a big difference between targeted ridings, and ridings where we can expect New Democrat MP's.

quote:
Is there a reason not to mention Humber - St. Barbe - Baie Verte?

Historically, it's not a strong area for the NDP, and the only reason we did so well was because of the candidate: who I believe is now a Liberal.

[ 17 December 2003: Message edited by: meades ]


From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 16 December 2003 10:17 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm so glad someone listed Davenport. No, don't say it, Stockholm and others. I know. Just let me have my fantasy in peace.

Welcome to the new babblers - I guess this thread hit the right spot or something!


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 16 December 2003 11:22 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A few comments:

1. If Pierre Ducasse wants to run in Manicouagan all the more power to him. There is NO riding in Quebec with any natural base of NDP support so running in a totally working class northern Quebec seat where Ducasse has local connections and would face off against a totally lackluster BQ incumbent makes more sense than running in a Montreal seat where Ducasse has no personal following and where the BQ incumbents tend to be much more formidable. Manicouagan is much like seats in Northern Ontario and Northern Manitoba that the NDP does well in.

2. Forget about anything in the NWT. The NDp struggled to run two candiadtes in the recent territorial election and each won a pathetic 5% of the vote. Not exactly a good sign for the federal election!

3. some seats listed above make no sense at all. There is no chance in hell of the NDP even saving its deposit in such seats as Brandon-Souris, Calgary South-Centre and Vancouver South. Meantime Esquimalt-Metchosin is not listed which should be first rung target.

4. Someone mentioned that Skeena-Bulkley Valley could only be won by the NDP with a seismic shift in the BC popular vote. Well, the CA took 48% in BC in 2000 and the lastest poll has them (CPC) down to 20%. The NDP took just 11% in BC in 2000 and the latest poll now has us at 30%. How much more of a seismic shift do we need to win back an old stronghold like Skeena??? If those numbers hold the CPC may end up with just 3-4 seats in all of BC!!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 17 December 2003 04:46 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

3. some seats listed above make no sense at all. There is no chance in hell of the NDP even saving its deposit in such seats as Brandon-Souris, Calgary South-Centre and Vancouver South. Meantime Esquimalt-Metchosin is not listed which should be first rung target.

I mentioned Esquimalt, and I agree. I think meades ignored my comments re: Vancouver South. The neighbourhoods comprising Vancouver south are too conservative to possibly vote for the NDP. All of the NDP vote in the old riding is tucked away in south Burnaby in the new Burnaby South-New West riding.

mijawara: That's unfortunate. It would be nice to see someone in the IWA or fisheries or other resource sector run in Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's certainly not a top 5 riding for the Conservatives, and I don't expect the Liberals to pick it up.

All of the top ridings for the Cons to hold on to in my list are the ones with the largest evangelical Christian populations. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is a pretty secular and a highly unionized part of the province, so I am fairly optimistic about our prospects, whereas in a place like Chilliwack or Kelowna union levels are low and the number of practising evangelical Christians is high.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 17 December 2003 04:38 PM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think meades ignored my comments re: Vancouver South. The neighbourhoods comprising Vancouver south are too conservative to possibly vote for the NDP.

Sorry, I misread. I don't know much about BC or Alberta, so I was basing those pics mostly on what other people said, and I misread what you'd written. I changed it for Newton--North Delta

quote:
Esquimalt-Metchosin

This wasn't mentioned in my list because, if this is now Esquimalt--Juan da Fuca, I think Keith Martin is too strong an MP for us to oust just yet.

From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 December 2003 04:42 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
This wasn't mentioned in my list because, if this is now Esquimalt--Juan da Fuca, I think Keith Martin is too strong an MP for us to oust just yet.

Before 1993, this area was one of the most rock solid NDP areas in the country. I think keith Martin's star may have faded a lot. He ran for the leadership of the CA and got a humiliating 2% of the vote and you never hear much from him anymore. He muses about being socially liberal but then votes a 100% socially conservative line. If the CPC vote in BC drops to 20% as it shows every sign of doing, I think he will be flushed down the toilet like everyone else. The only thing that would really make this seat unwinnable wouold be if Martin switched to the Liberals and they won big in BC.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 17 December 2003 04:44 PM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I believe there were rumours going around about Martin going to the Liberals not too long ago, and they were vehemently denied.

Not that that necessarily means they weren't true, of course.


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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posted 17 December 2003 07:57 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks to everyone for their contributions on this thread.

What got me thinking about ridings in the first place was an outstanding US-based website I came across, www.swingstates.org. The idea behind that initiative is to have volunteers in states where the '04 presidential outcome is a foregone conclusion (for better or worse) vote by absentee ballot and travel to Democratic swing states to campaign.

Let me float this idea out: What sort of impact could an initiative like that have here? We know the NDP is not going to take Mount-Royal or Wild Rose or Vancouver South-Burnaby, and we can be reasonably sure a proportion of the party's incumbents are safe. So why not mobilize the party activists in no-hope and safe ridings to target some of the 50+ seats identified in this thread? Voter registration, GOTV, etc. and other efforts would be maximized in the places where they will have the greatest impact.

With all due respect to some of the previously posted babblers, diffuse national campaigns brought the NDP within a few seats of losing official party status, thanks to FPTP. Layton is an enormous asset, but he has to be strategic about where he pitches his message. A "swing seats" solution could never be official party policy for lots of reasons, but what do progressives have to lose by giving it a shot?


From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 December 2003 08:08 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
With all due respect to some of the previously posted babblers, diffuse national campaigns brought the NDP within a few seats of losing official party status, thanks to FPTP. Layton is an enormous asset, but he has to be strategic about where he pitches his message. A "swing seats" solution could never be official party policy for lots of reasons, but what do progressives have to lose by giving it a shot?


With all due respect, this is precvisely what the NDP has always done. In every election since the NDP was founded, the strategy has been to identify 30-60 (depending on the election) key ridings and concentrate all resources there. This is the norm. Of course some elements of the campaign are going to national. Layton will campaign, it will be covered on the news - we cannot prevent people in unwinnable seats from seeing the coverage. Similarly, when you run TV and radio ads, they will be seen by a whole city - not just by people in targeted ridings. But I think that anyone who has had any involvement in the NDP will agree that it is standard operating procedure for the NDP to carefully choose high priority seats and funnel resources there. What gave you the impression that it was otherwise.

For that matter I think all parties do that unless they think they are heading for such a huge landlside that every seat becomes winnable.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
spindoctor
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posted 17 December 2003 08:09 PM      Profile for spindoctor   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
So why not mobilize the party activists in no-hope and safe ridings to target some of the 50+ seats identified in this thread? Voter registration, GOTV, etc. and other efforts would be maximized in the places where they will have the greatest impact.

But what exactly does that mean? Do you mean have party activists move to more winnable ridings to cast their vote there? That scheme seems untenable and frankly illegal.

Do you mean to have party activists move to more winnable ridings just to pound on doors? Again, you'd be asking activists to move to other parts of the country just to work an election. There's a hard core of people who do that, but not most volunteers. And, frankly, there are often strong ties to home that keep activists wanting to stick to their own, unwinnable ridings.

I suppose one scenario that could happen is to have a storing house of NDP - Liberal voters, whereby Liberal voters in an NDP, leaning riding would vote for the NDP on the consideration that an NDP voter in a Liberal riding would vote for the Liberal there. This is reminiscent of the Gore/Nader vote trading scheme in 2000. That never worked.

I don't think it would be feasible here either. I suspect that Liberal voters in Burnaby-Douglas have as much of a hate-on for the NDP as NDP voters do for Liberals in general.

Not to mention that I find the idea somewhat repugnant...

Sorry, mate....I just don't see how this could work.

P.s. This is not to suggest that the central party won't be allocating its resources of paid activists, money, labour support and leader's tour attention on certain ridings. But that's happened every single campaign and will happen until the day we get rid of this god-awful electoral system.


From: Kingston, Jamaica.....oh alright....Kingston, Ontario | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
BugBear
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posted 17 December 2003 11:14 PM      Profile for BugBear   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Dan Minkin:

Having said all this, I somewhat disagree with the premise of this thread. Ignoring poll numbers and fighting by-election style in the A ridings is the strategy for when you're trying to keep party status, not for when you're aiming for 50 seats. You only get 50 seats when you get a few regional sweeps going, and the poll numbers are high enough to spill out of the key ridings. Then again, we can't just assume that we're in the running for such regional sweeps just cause we say we are...


At below 8% you are running a series of by-elections. Between 8 and 18% more of the same only more (of the same). 18 to 28% you are a major player. Now because of lumping: 5% Que, 30% BC, in one area you will do the by-elections on spead routine and in another fight a general election.


From: 2nd London Tractor Factory | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
BugBear
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posted 17 December 2003 11:27 PM      Profile for BugBear   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
They say that there is a priority "A" list of 50 seats and a priority "B" list the size of which I don't know but it is safe to assume that it is about the same size and then the rest. It has to do with money and the Leader's time. Some activists will shift one riding over as required but, as everyone knows from experience, this is always a small group of junkies. Most people work close to home which is as it should be.

Don't forget that in the US everything is professional: the boiler rooms, the get the vote out people, the envelope stuffers: are all paid. Their own personal politics have nothing to do with it. They are temps working for whichever agency was hired. Only the bosses politics count. Which is how his company got the contract.

The United States does not have politics like any other country in the world. Real world voters on a mass level don't matter. The Riding Club as we know it does not matter.


From: 2nd London Tractor Factory | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 17 December 2003 11:45 PM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Before 1993, this area was one of the most rock solid NDP areas in the country. I think keith Martin's star may have faded a lot. He ran for the leadership of the CA and got a humiliating 2% of the vote and you never hear much from him anymore. He muses about being socially liberal but then votes a 100% socially conservative line. If the CPC vote in BC drops to 20% as it shows every sign of doing, I think he will be flushed down the toilet like everyone else. The only thing that would really make this seat unwinnable wouold be if Martin switched to the Liberals and they won big in BC.

With respect, Stockholm, this is the riding next to mine and Keith Martin has a lock on it. He is hugely popular locally and it doesn't matter what stupid thing the Reform/CA/CP leader/MPs/members do or say, Martin still has very strong local support in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.

The federal NDP nomination for Esquimalt is January 25 and the 3 candidates for the nomination are well-meaning but with very little profile in the riding. The most "well-known" is Julian West because he has recently switched to the NDP from the Greens (the Greens are not that strong in Esquimalt, BTW).

If former mayor Ray Rice or councillor Maurine Karaganis jumped in, there might be a slight chance of the NDP squeaking in on a 3-way split, but even that would be very unlikely. This is not a winnable seat for the NDP unless we get a massive 30%+ wave in popular support.

[ 17 December 2003: Message edited by: West Coast Lefty ]


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
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posted 18 December 2003 12:04 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Meades, I like your riding list a lot, but that won't stop me from making a few constructive critiques, of course

quote:
Québec: (I'm pretty sure there's more than one targeted riding. My guesses are as good - or bad - as anybody's)
Manicouagan
Nunavik--Eeyou
Saint-Lambert
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert
Rosemont--La Petite Patrie

I respect Ducasse's choice to run in his home riding, but as others have said, he would be much better off in a major media market like Montreal or Quebec City. I don't think there is any hope in Manicougan or Nunavik. The other 3 ridings are very heavily francophone and we'd need a very strong candidate to be competitive there. The NDP is simply not a known quantity among most Quebec francophones and it will take more than 4 months to change that.

Typically, the NDP in Quebec does best in mixed anglo/francophone ridings like Outremont or Hull-Aylmer. If Martin goes right-wing and starts really pissing off civil servants, a strong local candidate in Hull-Aylmer could do well, (maybe Nycole Turmel from PSAC?) and even a riding like NDG could be in play with a strong local activist running under our banner. We should target 2-3 seats and just hit the major media markets (Montreal, Quebec City, Trois-Rivieres, Sherbrooke) with Jack visits and rallies.

quote:
BC:
Burnaby--New Westminster
Kamloops--Thompson
Victoria
Surrey North
Newton--North Delta
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver Island North
Vancouver Centre
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
New Westminster--Coquitlam
Nanaimo--Cowichan
Nanaimo--Alberni

I like this list - especially because Victoria is on it Former Victoria mayor David Turner has already declared for the NDP nomination and there are apparently several other big names considering running as well. David Anderson is beatable since he won't be able to use the CA-scare argument this time. His riding presence is abysmal and he has no record on any local issues apart from the environment, and even there Paul Martin is flip-flopping on Kyoto all over the place.

I'd question the Surrey and Delta seats - those are federal Liberal all the way with Paul Martin. We might have a chance in the Kootenay seats (Corky Evans would be a great federal candidate). Otherwise, this targetting is pretty dead-on for BC federal seats.


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
kyall glennie
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posted 18 December 2003 12:06 AM      Profile for kyall glennie   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think Nettie has a chance to knock off pankiw... His voters are just jerks, and no matter what happens they will support him... that said, the star phoenix has been taking pot-shots at him in nearly every article they wrote during his run for mayor... Nettie ran for the leadership of the provincial NDP, and is a past president of the NFU, so she has a good profile... SHe is also really bright, and will beat anyone in a debate. THe one wildcard is how the Starphoenix will portray her in their editorials - when she ran for Provincial NDP leadership they kept calling her "nutty nettie" cause she's about as left as svend robinson... I think this one seat stands a good shot, depending on the Conservative running there. (seat is Saskatoon Humboldt)

I am especially happy to hear about Nettie in my home riding. This gives me further reason to help with that campaign - Jim Pankiw must be stopped. That was our plan in 2000 and yet he won by a very sizeable majority over Armand Roy. I'm hoping Armand doesn't believe he should challenge Nettie for the nomination.

As for Wascana (Ralph Goodale's riding) I think we still need to run someone good against him. Goodale, in a high student population riding (being the University of Regina) must be challenged legitimately. Just because he's Finance doesn't mean he deserves the seat.

Not that that person would win, but it should be heavily challenged - considering provincially the constituencies all went heavy NDP, there is a possibility of a strong showing.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged
NED
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posted 18 December 2003 01:25 AM      Profile for NED        Edit/Delete Post
I may be wrong on this, but I remember hearing that with redistribution Dick Proctor no longer has a seat to run in and would have to run against Goodale. Does anyone know if this is true?
From: Formerly Sask | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 18 December 2003 01:51 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Does anyone know if this is true?

It's not. Most Sask. seats stay exactly the same, and Palliser is one of them. In the initial plan, the ridings became very different, but lots of people complained (like, everyone!) so they scrapped it for more moderate proposals.

quote:
I respect Ducasse's choice to run in his home riding, but as others have said, he would be much better off in a major media market like Montreal or Quebec City. I don't think there is any hope in Manicougan or Nunavik.

I understand that reasoning, but I think that the NDP should really start trying to appeal more to First Nations and Inuit peoples, largely because they deserve better than the lies and treachery of the Martin Liberals. Heaven knows Fontaine won't stand up to the man... But anyway, I recall a babbler (I think it was Sara Mayo) explaining that while we do good in ridings such as Outremont, those ridings have too high concentrations of upper-class, died-in-the-wool Liberals for us to have much room to grow beyond the 5-10% we garnered last time. I think the non-rural ridings I listed are predominantly working class, and that (though we haven't done well there in the past) they provide us with much more growing room than Outremont, for example (two of them are actually quite close to Chambly, which is the seat the NDP won in a 1990 by-election) again, I think. I may (and probably will) stand corrected. In the case of Saint-Bruno, if Pierrette Venne insists on running as an independent, that could severely split the vote and give us a better chance.

I agree with you about Hull.

[ 18 December 2003: Message edited by: meades ]


From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
kingblake
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posted 18 December 2003 03:01 AM      Profile for kingblake     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by meades:
I recall a babbler (I think it was Sara Mayo) explaining that while we do good in ridings such as Outremont, those ridings have too high concentrations of upper-class, died-in-the-wool Liberals for us to have much room to grow beyond the 5-10% we garnered last time.

I think Outremont could be a really interesting riding for us. The whole eastern ear of the riding is part of the "plateau", a trendy student/artistic part of town. This part of the riding also coincides with the provincial boundaries making up "Mercier", the riding where the UFP got its highest support (18%) in the recent provincials.

Outremont also has a fairly low income area along Van Horne, with many muslim Montrealers who possibly be convinced to turn to the NDP. Then we can throw in the fact that Martin Cauchon was thrown out of cabinet. Do we yet know if Cauchon is running again? So the riding may well have no incumbent.

Also, it happens to be the riding i'm living in, and i'd love to work on a targeted campaign


From: In Regina, the land of Exotica | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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posted 18 December 2003 03:16 AM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm just wondering how the Martin snub against long time London North Center M.P. Joe Fontana might play out. Many expected Fontana to be a shoe in for a cabinet position.

In fact, the whole London area, strongly Liberal both Federally and Provincially, got shut out of Cabinet entirely, and inexplicably.

If Joe retires because of this (not that I've read or heard anything, just speculating) then it's anyone's ridding-- IF Marion Boyd decides to run for us again.

Former Councilor Sandy Levin, who I met while working for the NDP in the election that brought Volderae to office, should be someone the NDP should be talking to about running.

Talking to? Begging incesantly.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
NED
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posted 18 December 2003 04:34 AM      Profile for NED        Edit/Delete Post
Thanks meades. I must have heard that rumour a while ago, when the initial boundaries to which you refer were still in play.
From: Formerly Sask | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
LukeVanc
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posted 18 December 2003 06:26 AM      Profile for LukeVanc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, I have to say that I disagree with all of your comments WCL!

I'm pretty sure the numbers for the CPC are going to be very low on Vancouver Island. Meanwhile, the Liberals are going to be doing well in BC in the 2004 election, rest assured. Incumbents, especially those lefty Liberals like Anderson, should win easily (Of course, Anderson and Owen may very well be the only incumbents running!). Former mayor Turner may be well known, but he certainly flopped in the 2000 election. My money is on the NDP taking Esquimalt, instead.

First of all, Keith Martin may not win his own riding nomination (according to the newspaper rumours). Second, with the CPC numbers so low across BC, this is not a riding the CPC is going to focus its resources on retaining. Harper knows that the NDP and the Liberals will both be targetting Esquimalt. Also, I was under the impression that it was a sure thing that Maurine was going to contest the nomination in Esquimalt.

Either way, I can't see the CPC retaining Esquimalt anymore than I can see David Anderson being knocked off in Victoria.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 18 December 2003 07:08 AM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by LukeVanc:
First of all, Keith Martin may not win his own riding nomination (according to the newspaper rumours).

Do the rumours go into details of whether he's being challenged from the right or from the left? I'd imagine he's the kind of Reform MP the Tories find quite acceptable.

Regardless of who wins the leadership I confess I'm fascinated to see how the turf wars are going to play out and whether they'll nominate Tories or Reformers in the ridings that are currently Liberal or NDP.

Frankly, were I the type of person who'd be desirable as a Toronto Conservative MP I'd be saying to myself, "Do I really want to make this sacrifice when I'm going to lose, possibly even lose my deposit, and be forever associated with a party where I have no idea what they believe in or who my fellow candidates are?"

I imagine being a Tory these days is rather like being an NDPer who has suddenly discovered we've merged with a communist party whose leader once proposed putting a Berlin/Great wall around Alberta!


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 18 December 2003 07:23 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Newbie:
I imagine being a Tory these days is rather like being an NDPer who has suddenly discovered we've merged with a communist party whose leader once proposed putting a Berlin/Great wall around Alberta!

You say that like it's a bad idea.

Kidding, kidding!


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 18 December 2003 08:58 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
It's not. Most Sask. seats stay exactly the same, and Palliser is one of them. In the initial plan, the ridings became very different, but lots of people complained (like, everyone!) so they scrapped it for more moderate proposals.


THis incidentally was a real shame. Yes, under that propoised new map it might have created problems for Proctor, but overall it would have been way better for the NDP than the current Sask. map is. There would have been three purely urban seats in each of Regina and Saskatoon, instead of four mixed urban/rural seats in each as we have now. The NDP is so mkuch stronger in cities in Sask., that if we had lobbied in favour of the new map, we would have had (for example), three total shoe-ins in Saskatoon instead opf two-toss-ups and two unwinnables as we have now.

The NDP shoudl have done a better job of pushing for the more favourable boundaries.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 18 December 2003 09:14 AM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:

You say that like it's a bad idea.


No, you interpreted it like I say it like it's a bad idea.


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 18 December 2003 09:25 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ha! Good point!
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Newbie
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posted 18 December 2003 09:59 AM      Profile for Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
Ha! Good point!

When it comes to Alberta I'm reminded of the mother who said to her rambunctious little boy, "Johnny, I wouldn't give you up for a million dollars, but I wouldn't give a dime for a dozen more just like you."


From: Toronto, Ontario | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged
Guêpe
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posted 18 December 2003 10:15 AM      Profile for Guêpe   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I'm just wondering how the Martin snub against long time London North Center M.P. Joe Fontana might play out. Many expected Fontana to be a shoe in for a cabinet position.
In fact, the whole London area, strongly Liberal both Federally and Provincially, got shut out of Cabinet entirely, and inexplicably.

If Joe retires because of this (not that I've read or heard anything, just speculating) then it's anyone's ridding-- IF Marion Boyd decides to run for us again.

Former Councilor Sandy Levin, who I met while working for the NDP in the election that brought Volderae to office, should be someone the NDP should be talking to about running.

Talking to? Begging incesantly.


For London, ON. London North Centre and London Fanshawe will only be in play if there is a ground swell of NDP votes. When Marion Boyd, unseated David Peterson, and then kept her riding in 1995, the boundaries were different. Making London North, (solid Tory country) London Centre NDP and London South also strong NDP (just barely lost it in 1995). Since the redistribution.... though, it makes things "close" in LNC and LF...but the national average will need to be higher to win it.


I agree that Sandy Levin (I didnt know he was a New Democrat) and David Winninger would be two very strong candidates for those ridings.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Dan Minkin
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posted 18 December 2003 10:29 AM      Profile for Dan Minkin     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
2. Forget about anything in the NWT. The NDp struggled to run two candiadtes in the recent territorial election and each won a pathetic 5% of the vote. Not exactly a good sign for the federal election!

PLEASE note that the Northwest Territories and Nunavut both have non-partisan legislatures, and the NDP was trying unsuccessfully to create a party slate election system in the NWT. People didn't like the idea. It's not like the territorial NDP is struggling behind much more massive Liberal territorial machines -- territorial party machines don't exist, as far as I know. For "signs" regarding the federal election, refer to the strong second we pulled off in the NWT (called Western Arctic as a riding) in 2000.

In other news, Broadbent has made up his mind to run in Ottawa Center.

In other news, Dennis Mills is now suggesting that he may or may not seek re-election in Toronto-Danforth this time around; him not doing so would obviously calm us down a lot about Jack winning the seat. Mills says that his thoughts of retirement have nothing to do with either Layton running against him, or Martin locking him out of cabinet. Ha.


From: Toronto | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
MacD
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posted 18 December 2003 10:48 AM      Profile for MacD     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does the NDP have any potential candidates for Edmonton-SE? David Kilgour ran on a pro-Martin platform last time. His ejection from cabinet and his comments on SSM will cause him some trouble. It isn't unlikely that Kilgour and whoever the Reformatories run will spend much of the campaign arguing over who is more against SSM. A credible, high-profile NDP could post some significant gains, although I don't know about the likelihood of actually winning the seat.
From: Redmonton, Alberta | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
BradWest
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posted 18 December 2003 09:24 PM      Profile for BradWest     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Just saw this:

Charley King to challenge MP Moore in
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Vows to put concerns of middle class Canadians on national agenda

December 18 2003

Port Coquitlam, B.C. — Local elementary school teacher and community advocate Charley King today announced his intention to seek election as Member of Parliament for the newly-created riding of Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam. King says his campaign will offer voters a moderate, balanced approach that puts people first.

“While the wealthiest Canadians get richer, middle-class Canadians work harder and earn less while paying higher taxes to a government that fails to produce what we need: good jobs in a growing economy, top-quality health care, and safe streets and neighbourhoods,” says King.

King, who will seek the NDP nomination to run in the election expected next spring, says Tri-City residents want a moderate, thoughtful MP who will focus on the real, everyday concerns of Tri-City residents. King says a consensus-builder is needed to get on with the issues of the day. “I will work each day to bring together all Canadians and all interests to get this country moving. The politics of the past are out. I will be a moderate MP, who works to get Government investing in communities. No more tax and spend. No more slash and burn. It’s time to grow and invest.”

Winning the trust of voters is going to be key, says King. “Decades of Liberal and Conservative neglect have left voters disillusioned and disappointed. Our political system has failed us. Our government doesn't work. Hard-working British Columbians who play by the rules have no voice in Ottawa.”

King says MP James Moore has a lot to answer for. “It’s disappointing that Mr. Moore has forgotten the people who elected him. He’s ‘gone Ottawa’. While Tri-City residents are struggling to pay their mortgages, Moore is busy trying to advance his partisan career by ducking controversial votes and flip-flopping on important issues in an attempt to appease Conservative party bosses. My priority is our community. I’ll take my orders from voters.”

King was pleased to receive support for his candidacy from former Port Coquitlam MLA Mike Farnworth, Port Moody City Councillor Karen Rockwell and Port Coquitlam Mayor Scott Young.

Charley King, 29, lives in Port Coquitlam with wife Debra Burton, a Port Coquitlam School Trustee. He teaches Grades 4 and 5 in the Coquitlam School District. King is also a member of the City of Port Coquitlam’s Official Community Plan Taskforce.

—30—


-I think Charley is wise to set this up as a contest between himself the moderate and Moore the extreme. The Lib candidate is not impressive and with this moderate msg King will pick up Lib votes. (I hope atleast, we need to get rid of Moore)


From: Port Coquitlam, BC | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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Babbler # 4590

posted 18 December 2003 10:02 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So, the "swing seats" notion? Apparently not so popular with the babble crowd. Quick note to spindoctor: the suggestion was for volunteers to vote by absentee ballot, not swarm en masse to vote in lean-to NDP ridings, which would be illegal. At the end of the day, was useful just to see the opinions expressed on ridings that might be winnable. Cheers.
From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 19 December 2003 12:14 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
So, the "swing seats" notion? Apparently not so popular with the babble crowd. Quick note to spindoctor: the suggestion was for volunteers to vote by absentee ballot, not swarm en masse to vote in lean-to NDP ridings, which would be illegal. At the end of the day, was useful just to see the opinions expressed on ridings that might be winnable. Cheers.

You don't seem to understand. The NDP already employs what you call the "swing seat model". This has been standard operating procedure since time immemorial. You are reinventing the wheel.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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Babbler # 214

posted 19 December 2003 05:47 AM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
For London, ON. London North Centre and London Fanshawe will only be in play if there is a ground swell of NDP votes. When Marion Boyd, unseated David Peterson, and then kept her riding in 1995, the boundaries were different. Making London North, (solid Tory country) London Centre NDP and London South also strong NDP (just barely lost it in 1995). Since the redistribution.... though, it makes things "close" in LNC and LF...but the national average will need to be higher to win it.


I agree that Sandy Levin (I didnt know he was a New Democrat) and David Winninger would be two very strong candidates for those ridings.


I'm not sure if Levin is a card carrying New Democrat or not. I became less active at about the time he entered London politics, so I've lost touch.

He'd make a great candidate though.


I'd agree with most of what you say about London North, except it's not so toryesque as what you may think. The voters there have been showing that they are no longer voting the way mom and dad told them to, and move from party to party. We have to remember that Marion almost unseated tory Dianne Cunningham, even after the ridding was gerrymandered.

A strong reputation for constituency work plays well here, and can drag voters across party lines.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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Babbler # 4590

posted 19 December 2003 02:34 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Looks like Hampton's staying on. Can we add Niagara Falls to the list if Peter Kormos now jumps to the federal scene?
From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
folker
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4731

posted 19 December 2003 04:09 PM      Profile for folker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Regarding the riding of Vancouver-Kingsway:

This SHOULD be a winnable riding for the NDP. Ujjal Dosanjh held it provincially for the NDP for many years; it's only been a federal riding since 1997, when the NDP ran a strong second. It fell to third in 2000, when many potential NDP supporters (like myself) voted Liberal to stop the Alliance.

It's a working-class riding, a natural constituency for the NDP. But it also boasts a huge Chinese population, which, in general, has never gravitated to the NDP. It's currently held by Sophia Leung, universally regarded as one of the weakest and most ineffective MPs in the House. I didn't mind voting for her in 2000, but now that she's come out against same-sex marriage I hope the NDP whips her butt.

I no longer live in that riding (Libby Davies is my MP now), but, if Libby seems safe enough, I'll seriously consider volunteering for Mary Woo-Sims or whoever gets the NDP nomination in Kingsway.

I hope Olivia accompanies Jack when he campaigns in this riding--the fact that she's Chinese can hopefully swing a substantial chunk of the Chinese vote the NDP's way.

Any thoughts from other Vancouverites about this riding?

[ 21 December 2003: Message edited by: folker ]


From: Vancouver | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 19 December 2003 04:15 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I hope Olivia accompanies Jack when he campaigns in this riding--the fact that she's Chinese can hopefully swing a substantial chunk of the Chinese vote the NDP's way.


For what its worth, Jack can also speak enough Cantonese to give a few minutes worth of exhortations at a banquet. He will certainly have more of a claim to being a "sinophile" than any other party leader!


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
FPTP
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4780

posted 19 December 2003 05:17 PM      Profile for FPTP        Edit/Delete Post
Mijawara approach to politics reminds me of an all too enthusiastic baseball fan. He seems like the kind of guy who stays at home to make Cabinet "dream teams". Which gives me an idea for a topic...

Hamilton East down to Niagara are as locked down for Martin as any area in Canada. Valeri et al respresent a camp of hard-core Martinites, and the heavy immigrant population represents a consistent voting base for the Libs. Sorry.

And can anyone explain to me the popularity of Mr. K. Martin? I've had the opportunity to get to know the man personally a little while ago, and I found his as pleasant as a plank of wood, except more concieted. I think there was a move afoot in the CA camp to get rid of the man, and he did want to join the Liberals. I'm not sure what happened. But, with the CPC wanting to put on a more moderate face, I think he's their man - even though he's a bit of a slut.


From: Lima | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Lefty
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3697

posted 20 December 2003 01:36 AM      Profile for West Coast Lefty     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
First of all, Keith Martin may not win his own riding nomination (according to the newspaper rumours). Second, with the CPC numbers so low across BC, this is not a riding the CPC is going to focus its resources on retaining. Harper knows that the NDP and the Liberals will both be targetting Esquimalt. Also, I was under the impression that it was a sure thing that Maurine was going to contest the nomination in Esquimalt.

On Maurine, it is not going to happen. The nomination is about 34 days away and there are already 3 other candidates running, and one of them I'm pretty sure is her life partner! So that's a pretty clear sign that she won't contest it...

LukeVanc, you're right that Anderson will be a tough opponent, but a lot of his past victories were due to the "Stop Manning/Day" strategy. With the CPC plummeting as you suggest, soft-Liberal supporters could switch to the NDP in Victoria. It will not be easy, but it is doable.

I think you are underestimating Keith Martin's personal popularity in the riding - he is a maverick, the party brass hate him, and that just makes him more admired by voters (kinda like Moe Sihota ) . He will win easily unless the Libs have a star candidate up their sleeve.


From: Victoria, B.C. | Registered: Feb 2003  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 20 December 2003 04:32 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think you are underestimating Keith Martin's personal popularity in the riding - he is a maverick, the party brass hate him, and that just makes him more admired by voters (kinda like Moe Sihota ) . He will win easily unless the Libs have a star candidate up their sleeve.


Maybe the NDP can get a star candidate. When there is a seismic shift in voting patterns even the most popular mavericks will go down. In 1993 when the NDP dropped from 19 seats in BC to 2, NO ONE would have predicted some of those losses. Something similar is about the happen to the CPC in BC and the demographics of Esquimalt do NOT make me think that if the COC is reduced to 3-4 seats in BC, it will be one of them.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4590

posted 20 December 2003 09:40 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Sadly, FPTP, you're right on both counts, and as soon as you start a Cabinet dream team thread I'll weigh in with my inspired picks for revenue and solicitor-general. Don't wait.
From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3052

posted 21 December 2003 01:28 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
mijawara, it's over here, in the Politics forum.
From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged

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