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Author Topic: From Russia, with accuracy
uh clem
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posted 07 April 2003 04:51 PM      Profile for uh clem   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
There is a surfeit of war news, but reliable intelligence is hard to come by. The canny trader in these parlous days has a first port of call - GRU (Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravleniye), the espionage arm of the Russian military.

From the Guardian

And what are the Russians saying about the war?

quote:
All the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general Michael Mosley, about “…Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting of large units, exists no longer…” are contrary to fact and, according to analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their numerical strength and military equipment. Most of those losses were due to bombardments and not land combats. The total losses of Iraqi army since the beginning of the war have not exceeded 5-8% of their defensive potential. This means the main battles are still to be seen.

Read the full article here...

[ 07 April 2003: Message edited by: uh clem ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Willowdale Wizard
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posted 07 April 2003 05:44 PM      Profile for Willowdale Wizard   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
i agree, the GRU reports are interesting reads. they even detail which US commanders are being relieved of their command for being too timid at nasiraya, and which marines are being sent out of iraq due to incidents of rape.
From: england (hometown of toronto) | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
Pathe Eton Hogg
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posted 07 April 2003 08:37 PM      Profile for Pathe Eton Hogg     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
This means the main battles are still to be seen.

I wonder if they will wait till the end of the war to join in on the fighting?


From: Iraqistan suburbs | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
sheep
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posted 07 April 2003 10:07 PM      Profile for sheep     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The thing is, they sound believable, but they seem to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Plus there's a real political agenda. They don't want to see the US succeed and that colours their reporting.

Even if they're as accurate as some people really want to believe they are I have no doubt the war would be over by now if the US adopted a more traditional approach and bombed the hell out of the place at every show of resistance.


From: Vancouver | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Lard Tunderin' Jeezus
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posted 07 April 2003 10:51 PM      Profile for Lard Tunderin' Jeezus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Whose "traditional approach" might that have been, sheep?

Adolph Hitler's, perhaps?

[ 07 April 2003: Message edited by: Lard tunderin' jeesus ]


From: ... | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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posted 07 April 2003 11:23 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
That Guardian article on iraqwar.ru is excellent. Very interesting to see how traders are relying on it as the best source of information on what's really going on in Iraq...

quote:
From its neutral stance, GRU offers detailed, top-grade, and wholly unspun analysis. The bulletins are in Russian (bilingualism is suddenly in demand on Wall Street). You can get English translations a day later on Venik's Aviation website (www.aeronautics.ru).

Excellent as Suzanne Goldenberg's dispatches and Dan Chung's pictures are, anyone who wants to know what is really going on at the gates of Baghdad should click on to Venik (it's a pseudonym) before reading their newspaper. Check it out. GRU has been absolutely right about every pendulum swing in the fighting. It gave, for example, the true picture of the ambiguous on-off "occupation" of Basra as it happened. Traders made a killing using that GRU intelligence intelligently rather than sucking up the generals' lies and politicians' spin.

On GRU you will find the sobering information that the supply of Tomahawk missiles on US warships is at 25% "criticality" level (the arsenal they have to reserve for the North Koreans). The US can't bomb smart any more.

There are other sources of high-grade intelligence available to the trader wanting to be two days' head-up on the opposition. You can buy bootlegged Chinese intelligence reports in Hong Kong (apparently the Chinese have bought that downed Apache helicopter the Iraqis were dancing on) and Israeli analysis in Tel Aviv.

But why waste money when the Russians are giving away the best stuff free? Invest intelligently and get rich.


drg


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Moredreads
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posted 08 April 2003 06:50 AM      Profile for Moredreads     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I am ambivalent about the accuracy of this source. the source may be Russian but how accurate are those sources themselves. I think that the casualty reports are probablay guestimates based on Iraqi official statements, which are inflated.

Sheep's commentary about the bias of the site are also relevant.

Here is something from the latest bulletin for you conspiracy buffs. It is within the range of the palusible, but the who will ever know:

quote:
The coalition special operations HQ were sure that the embassy column would contain secret devices taken from military equipment captured by Iraqis. In this connection one cannot shut out the possibility of “revenge” from the coalition command.
Moreover, experts claim that the purpose of this armed assault could be to damage a few cars where the Russians would have to leave some of the salvage. This is also indicated by the fact that neither the ambassador himself nor journalists in the column were among the injured. In this case we can expect that this action was committed by coalition special forces and the column was shot using Russian-made weapons to conceal the origin of the attackers to blame the Iraqis afterwards.
According to the most recent data the column got ambushed almost 30 km to the west from the city on the territory occupied by the coalition, but moving fast it escaped from fire and made a few more kilometers where it was blocked by military jeeps. On attempting to establish contact with their crews it received fire again, then the jeeps vanished.


Over the top...


From: Canada | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Whazzup?
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posted 08 April 2003 11:58 AM      Profile for Whazzup?     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Very interesting to see how traders are relying on it as the best source of information on what's really going on in Iraq...

This suggestion is demonstrably untrue.

Consider the "accuracy" of the first report on this thread. We "learn" from it that

a. the Iraqi army retains up to 95% of its fighting potential
b. the "main battles" are still to be seen
c. the Baghdad International Airport is still partially controlled by Iraqi forces

No trader believes this. (Check the markets.) No sensible person believes this.

Even the weather forecast is wrong. He talks about a rapid turn for the worse, with visibility down to 200m. Current actual conditions in Baghdad: a little breezy, visibility 7km.

Moredreads, do you still stand by your statement, over on this thread, that "This guy, aside from casualty reports that are uncomfirmable, seems pretty on the money."


From: Under the Rubble | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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posted 08 April 2003 12:28 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
This suggestion is demonstrably untrue.

Perhaps you should contact The Guardian and challenge them on the accuracy of their article reporting that "traders made a killing using that GRU intelligence intelligently rather than sucking up the generals' lies and politicians' spin."

And I'm interested to see your demonstration to the contrary.

Do you have a link to post, or direct contact with traders who've found the GRU reports unuseful?

drg

[ 08 April 2003: Message edited by: drgoodword ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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posted 08 April 2003 12:49 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Radio GRU is off the air:

quote:
RAMZAJ DISCONTINUES OPERATION
08.04.2003 [18:46]

Events of the last 2 days have made further work of Ramzaj group in its current format impossible.

With the embassy personnel and journalists having left Iraq and most of Iraqi information services evacuated from Baghdad, analysis of the situation in Baghdad and Iraq as a whole becomes ineffective.

The quickly changing course of street fights leaves any informational updates far behind. Direct TV broadcasts are far more evident than any analytics.

At the same time, we do not have the right to reveal classified, “top secret” information.
Apart from that, our actions meet increasing opposition from the official quarts and in fact are turning into confrontation the outcome of which is not difficult to forecast.
Therefore we have to discontinue our work and thank everybody for taking part in the project.


drg


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Whazzup?
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posted 08 April 2003 12:50 PM      Profile for Whazzup?     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The Guardian reporter based his entire interpretation on the comments of one single unnamed "mathematician trader." I would think you'd want to ask the Guardian for a demonstration of its argument -- not me.

But since you asked, it's demonstrably untrue that traders are relying on alleged "GRU intelligence," since such intelligence is predicting a long and bloody war to come, and the markets remain either growing or flat. (They declined early in the war not because of iraqwar's reporting, but because "unilateral" [non-embedded] Western and Al Jazeera reporters had shown that coalition claims in Basra and Umm Qasr had been exaggerated. They have since rebounded.)


From: Under the Rubble | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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posted 08 April 2003 01:04 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
The Guardian reporter based his entire interpretation on the comments of one single unnamed "mathematician trader." I would think you'd want to ask the Guardian for a demonstration of its argument -- not me.

I'm not the one challenging this article...you are. And it is not clear if the journalist spoke with other traders or not.

quote:
They declined early in the war not because of iraqwar's reporting, but because "unilateral" [non-embedded] Western and Al Jazeera reporters had shown that coalition claims in Basra and Umm Qasr had been exaggerated. They have since rebounded.

Link? Or is this your analysis?

drg


From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
ronb
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posted 08 April 2003 03:23 PM      Profile for ronb     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
iraqwar.ru signs off.

quote:
With the embassy personnel and journalists having left Iraq and most of Iraqi information services evacuated from Baghdad, analysis of the situation in Baghdad and Iraq as a whole becomes ineffective.

From: gone | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
drgoodword
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Babbler # 3214

posted 25 March 2006 01:57 PM      Profile for drgoodword   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Remember the "Ramzaj Files" at iraqwar.ru during the invasion?

quote:
He said a unit affiliated with the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Department, known by its abbreviation GRU, was actively working in Iraq at the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The unit apparently was shut down after the fall of Baghdad.

He said at that time a Russian Internet site called "The Ramzay Files" was causing a stir in Moscow's military and diplomatic community. The site, which was shut down after the invasion, posted striking insights, predictions and analysis into U.S. military activities as well Iraqi military and intelligence activities, he said.

He said former GRU officials told him that the type of information that was being posted -- both on the Iraqis and on the Americans -- appeared to be the kind of information that only highly placed Russian intelligence officials in Iraq would have had access to.



From: Toronto | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged

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