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Author Topic: I wonder if we can do this to National Post polsters
clockwork
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posted 03 October 2002 02:39 PM      Profile for clockwork     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Iran showed its divided face yesterday when an unprecedented public-opinion poll revealed a strong vein of pro-American sentiment, so strong that the pollster was arrested.

The poll, which had been ordered by Iran's parliament, queried 1,500 people across the country about their opinions on the United States. The results found 74 per cent of respondents over the age of 15 in favour of opening political talks with Washington; 46 per cent said they think U.S. policies on Iran are "to some extent correct."


Iran jails head of polling agency over pro-American survey results


From: Pokaroo! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 03 October 2002 02:52 PM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The tone of that story makes it seem (to me) that the ruling mullahs will be thrown out of office within the next few years. Growing public dissatisfaction with the pace of reform (or the lack of reform) is building in Iran. The fact that Khatami openly criticises many of the mullah's decisions is a good sign, too. I'm crossing my fingers that the eventual ouster of the mullahs and the Ayatollah will be relatively peaceful.
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
quelar
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posted 03 October 2002 03:16 PM      Profile for quelar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
"eventual ouster" are you kidding me?

Iran has lots of oil too, and they're #2 in the Axis of Evil.

I give them less then 6 months before talk of "regime change" happens.


From: In Dig Nation | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
WingNut
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posted 03 October 2002 03:33 PM      Profile for WingNut   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Before we get all too excited there was an interesting interview with an Iranian offical a few weeks back. maybe some one else seen it.

He said that Iranians unofficially worked with Americans for months planning to overthrow the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. He said Iran was helpful during the Afghanistan campaign offering rescue assistance, opening its borders to refugees and capturing Al Qaeda fighters who sought to flee through that country.

They were hoping that all the contacts and assistance would pay off with warmer US relations. And then W gave is "axis of evil" speech. The interview ended with the Irani official saying, in effect, you can't trust Americans.


From: Out There | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Briguy
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posted 03 October 2002 03:35 PM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm talking about democratization from within. Very different from a "regime change". The phrase "regime change" implies switching out one dictator for another, more brandable dictator. Democratization is more hopeful, to my mind.
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 03 October 2002 04:59 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I think Quelar means that the US will be invading Iran soon.

I think that is very likely. Here is how it may happen. After the US attacks Iraq,governmental authority in the south of Iraq falls apart. The Shiite people do not accept an American-approved
government which retains Sunni control of Iraq.

They rise up, and the US pours weaponry in for its client. Iran then methodically begins to build up a Shiite force to keep the Americans away from their border, and to support their co-religionists.

President Bush gives a speech saying Iran is meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq, and gives a seven day deadline....


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
ronb
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posted 03 October 2002 05:06 PM      Profile for ronb     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
War without end, amen.
From: gone | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 03 October 2002 05:47 PM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Which is just another good reason to oppose an invasion of Iraq. Unless the US has its momentum halted, it will just continue to steamroller the planet, precipitating backlashes too horrible to contemplate.

It's sad, because this news snippet does actually point to some major changes bubbling beneath Iran's surface. Changes that will only happen if the Bush administration is prevented from foiling them, and this will only happen if they are stopped right here, right now, at Iraq.


From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
quelar
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posted 03 October 2002 06:16 PM      Profile for quelar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
But Bush doesn't seem to see that the world is changing positively, because it's not changing the way he wants. The democracies that are springing up are true democracies, not the dual monarchy system of the US.

His push is not to help the world, his plan is to help himself. He wants an American Oil Company friendly government in place.

BTW, did everyone know that Hamid Karzai is a former paid consultant for Unocal (the group building the pipeline across Afghanistan).


From: In Dig Nation | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Arch Stanton
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posted 03 October 2002 06:17 PM      Profile for Arch Stanton     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I recognise this!!!

It's the DOMINO THEORY!!!

It's true, it's true!!


From: Borrioboola-Gha | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
ronb
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posted 03 October 2002 06:24 PM      Profile for ronb     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I certainly remember commenting on the marked increase in negative press coverage of Afghanistan immediately after Bush was appointed to the White House. Not that I'm a suspicious guy...
From: gone | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
clockwork
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posted 03 October 2002 08:00 PM      Profile for clockwork     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You mean Dubya told the Taliban that he didn't like the Buddha either?
From: Pokaroo! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
'lance
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posted 03 October 2002 08:09 PM      Profile for 'lance     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
I'm talking about democratization from within. Very different from a "regime change". The phrase "regime change" implies switching out one dictator for another, more brandable dictator.

"Regime change" also means, to speak plainly, overthrowing a government one doesn't like (in favour, I grant, of a government one is also bound not to like within a very few years).

It's a euphemism, in short, and I think we should point that out on every opportunity, and refuse to use it.

Edited to add:

quote:
It's the DOMINO THEORY!!!

It's true, it's true!!


Yes! So Eisenhower was right, sort of, just about the wrong country!

Perhaps he started to get an inkling of the truth toward the end of his term, when he warned about a 'military-industrial complex.' Hmmm....

[ October 03, 2002: Message edited by: 'lance ]


From: that enchanted place on the top of the Forest | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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posted 03 October 2002 08:46 PM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I can't believe the U.S. would seriously consider attacking Iran. The poll might indicate some slackening of anti-U.S. feeling in that country, but these things are pretty volitile.

I make a joke about fanaticism in some countries, and say "See what happens when you don't have cable?". But there's a kernel of observation in this.

In dismanteling the Cold War, Gorbachev remarked on the impossibility of steming the tide of information.

And, it's this control of information that has enabled some nations to polarize and fanatasize their populations.

I've read about how the roof tops in urban Iran and now bristling with satelite dishes. The poll-- if accurate-- may indicate that Iranians are being exposed to many different views, and there is no longer a homogenous, uncountered propoganda machine there.

I do not think that even George W. Bush is stupid enough to use force where time alone will accomplish American ends.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mohamad Khan
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posted 03 October 2002 09:06 PM      Profile for Mohamad Khan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
i'm extremely apprehensive about Iran as well. i think it's fabulous that Iranians have not been entirely brainwashed by the repression of the mullahs, and i also hope that they also remember the lessons of the Shah's rule. what i fear is History's tendency to repeat itself (well, not really "repeat"...).
From: "Glorified Harlem": Morningside Heights, NYC | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 03 October 2002 09:11 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
I recognise this!!!
It's the DOMINO THEORY!!!

In the case of Iraq/Iran, you have a very specific reason why instability in Iraq would lead to Iranian intervention: the existence of a Shi-ite majority in Iraq, and a Shi-ite government in Iran.

When the Domino theory is lossed from any moorings, it is a caricature. But where borders were made by imperialism and do not reflect the realities of ethnicity and religion, instability is built in.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mohamad Khan
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posted 03 October 2002 09:12 PM      Profile for Mohamad Khan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
i'm extremely apprehensive about Iran as well. i think it's fabulous that Iranians have not been entirely brainwashed by the repression of the mullahs, and i also hope that they also remember the lessons of the Shah's rule. what i fear is History's tendency to repeat itself (well, not really "repeat"...).
From: "Glorified Harlem": Morningside Heights, NYC | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 03 October 2002 09:13 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I don't agree, Tommy - I think Bush WOULD be stupid enough, because American "ends" aren't what they claim they are. The don't want democracy in Iran. They want their OIL. A democracy in Iran might be the worst thing that could happen to the US government, because I'm willing to bet that the majority of Iranians strongly support the nationalization of their oil.

What the Americans need in Iran is a dictator-puppet, and that's what scares me.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mohamad Khan
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posted 03 October 2002 10:17 PM      Profile for Mohamad Khan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
why does my post appear twice?!
From: "Glorified Harlem": Morningside Heights, NYC | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mohamad Khan
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posted 03 October 2002 10:21 PM      Profile for Mohamad Khan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
why does my post appear twice?!
From: "Glorified Harlem": Morningside Heights, NYC | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 03 October 2002 10:22 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are you pressing "Add Reply" more than once? You have to be patient with it sometimes.

If not, then I have no idea why.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mohamad Khan
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posted 03 October 2002 10:24 PM      Profile for Mohamad Khan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
why does my post appear twice?!
From: "Glorified Harlem": Morningside Heights, NYC | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 03 October 2002 10:26 PM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
um, that would be 3 times now. strange!
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
GulfAlien
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posted 03 October 2002 10:33 PM      Profile for GulfAlien   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Wouldn't it be great if all the countries in the world were democracies like we have in Canada?

I mean, wouldn't that be great!

US geopolitical hegemony would be cemented if this were the case. So would its security and economic opportunity.

Can the ends justify the means though?


From: Vancouver | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
WingNut
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posted 03 October 2002 10:58 PM      Profile for WingNut   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
It's the DOMINO THEORY!!!

It's true, it's true!!



I have thought this myself. In fact, when the US went into Vietnam they did so citing the "domino effect" which was largely a self-serving theory. In the current circumstance, their is a real opportunity for a domino effect and it has nothing to do with Iran.

First, the US would be seriously over extended if it tried to occupy both Iraq and Iean. Given the occupation of Iraq would have to run into years if any stabilty is to be maintained. US success in the Gulf, over the long term, is hardly assured. Because of the domino effect, it might really turn out to be a failure unmatched in history.

I know I am going out on a limb here, but bear with me. Should the US invade Iraq with the Palestinian issue unresolved, which is the only scenario available, there will be massive demonstrations in Arab streets. These demonstrations and raised emotions will exacerbated if Sharon moves against Arafat or if, as it will, the Palestinian issues flares again.

At that time, in any number of Arab nations,
there will exist a window of opportunity, however narrow, for Islamic extremist parties to turn popular anger in discontent into open revolt. If Islamic extremists could gain control of one important Arab nation or more, the domino effect would see a complete destabilization throughout the region and US troops currently stationed in countries with friendly governments could find themselves surrounded by hostiles and may be forced to abandon their forward bases.

This is entirely speculation, of course. But the region is a powderkeg. And lighting a match here has absolutley nothing to do with democracy.


From: Out There | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged

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