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Author Topic: Argentina: Oh, when will they ever learn?
Mandos
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posted 21 December 2001 01:00 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
So, what do you think the outcome will be of this present unrest in Argentina? My prediction:

1) They will attempt to take actions they should have taken long ago to avoid their current situation, in thrall to the global financial system.
2) One of two things will happen thereafter:
a) The leader who attempts that will be threatened and coopted, putting Argentina back where it began.
b) The leader who attempts that will be Allende'd. And we will have a brutal regime installed.
3) Lots of suffering, lots of stopgap measures.

I'm not all that optimistic. But we can hope that instead people will realize that IMF prescriptions are so much quackery. That ultimately, it was Hayek who was the quack economist, not Keynes.


From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 01:06 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
How many people on this board are experts in Argentine political economy?
From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
agent007
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posted 21 December 2001 01:14 PM      Profile for agent007     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
That ultimately, it was Hayek who was the quack economist, not Keynes.

All economists are quacks!
(Personally, I'd much rather prefer Voodoo -- much more colourful.)

From: Niagara Falls ON | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Apemantus
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posted 21 December 2001 01:22 PM      Profile for Apemantus        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Said one quack to another...


From: Brighton, UK | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 21 December 2001 01:26 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Yes, but the question is, who is quackier. If all economists are quacks, and yet we rely on the advice of economists for some measure, then I would prefer to rely on economists with more humane sensibilities (ie, not ones that would be worshipped by Lady Maggie).

My reference was, however, to Hayek calling Keynes the "last great quack economist" or something, suggesting that Hayek himself was not a quack.

I don't think we need to discuss the intricate details of Argentine political economy to be able to discuss some aspects of what's going on there, thought it would be nice. I think I once read someone (Linda McQuaig a year ago was it?) saying that Argentina should have saved itself this pain and defaulted a while ago, before this kind of chaos. Even if it wasn't Linda McQuaig, I hope she writes about it soon--lots of material to give Peter Foster a whipping.


From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 21 December 2001 02:30 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Suddenly, it all makes sense:

"Enron Actually Argentina" - http://www.satirewire.com/news/0111/enron.shtml


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 02:38 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Methinks The Onion has an on-line newspaper war on their hands...
From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Captaffy
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posted 21 December 2001 02:39 PM      Profile for Captaffy        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I predict a military coup.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Archimedes2000
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posted 21 December 2001 02:41 PM      Profile for Archimedes2000        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Von Hayek never said any such thing as calling Keynes a "quack." Didn't happen.
From: America | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 21 December 2001 02:49 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Are you confusing Hayek and von Mises?
From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Archimedes2000
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posted 21 December 2001 02:52 PM      Profile for Archimedes2000        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
No, it's Frederick Von Hayek and Ludwig von Mises.
From: America | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Pankaj
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posted 21 December 2001 03:00 PM      Profile for Pankaj   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
[sarcasm mode] Let's tie more countries to the needs of global capital rather than their own civic priorities. Can't let this busted experiment stop us. At least things couldn't possibly get worse.
From: London, ON | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 21 December 2001 03:07 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/boettke/hayek.htm

There is no "von". I do not see it anywhere. You are confused, though enjoy the site (I'm sure you'll agree with it).

Hayek and Keynes did fight indeed. I don't have the exact quote with me, but the spirit is pretty clear.


From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Archimedes2000
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posted 21 December 2001 03:15 PM      Profile for Archimedes2000        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
http://www.mises.org/hayekbio.asp

2) Born Friedrich August von Hayek in 1899 to a distinguished family of Viennese intellectuals,(3) Hayek attended the University of Vienna, earning doctorates in 1921 and 1923.

I'm sorry, who is confused?

[ December 21, 2001: Message edited by: Archimedes2000 ]


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Pankaj
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posted 21 December 2001 03:21 PM      Profile for Pankaj   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The confused guy is the one who, knowing his approach would work, anyhow ran Argentina into the ground.
From: London, ON | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 21 December 2001 03:26 PM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I'm sorry, almost nobody refers to Hayek with the "von." Lots of people talk about "von Mises," however. In any case, this is developing into trivialities. It's clear to me that there was a Hayek vs Keynes conflict, Keynes won for a couple of decades, Hayek won for another couple, and now I want to get back to Keynes, please.
From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 03:28 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I really wish we were still allowed to change are names on Babble. Now I want to be known as "Von MediaBoy"!
From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Pankaj
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posted 21 December 2001 03:30 PM      Profile for Pankaj   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Fear not, from now on you will be Von Mediaboy in my books. I hope you do not regret your wish.
From: London, ON | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 03:36 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Can I be known as Victor Von MediaBoy and wear a metal mask and green cape?



[ December 21, 2001: Message edited by: Kneel before MediaBoy ]


From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Pankaj
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posted 21 December 2001 03:38 PM      Profile for Pankaj   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
You are beginning to sound like a superhero. What do you want to do, revive Argentina's economy in a single bound?
From: London, ON | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 03:41 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
No no no. I want to rule with an iron (literally!) fist it from my mountain stronghold!!! Mwahahahaha!

But, you need a doctorate for that job, and I can't afford the interest on the student loans.


From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
clockwork
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posted 21 December 2001 04:38 PM      Profile for clockwork     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, if you skip the country, I don't think you have to worry about OSAP or collection agency worker trying to phone you all the time.
From: Pokaroo! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Victor Von Mediaboy
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posted 21 December 2001 04:41 PM      Profile for Victor Von Mediaboy   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
And if they do, I can always sent my Von MediaBoy robots to destroy them!!! Thanks for the encouragement!!!
From: A thread has merit only if I post to it. So sayeth VVMB! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
dan
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posted 21 December 2001 08:35 PM      Profile for dan        Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
As amusing as the fantastical visions of Victor Von Mediaboy are, I am sorely puzzled by a few things and perhaps the local wizards can help. Argentina is deeply in debt and incapable of making their payments. Okay. Now is that just the payments on the interest on the debt? or the debt itself because they can't get any more leeway from their creditors? And who are these creditors? Canada's in debt... the US is in debt... most every state I hear of has payments to make on their DEBT! Who is getting all these payments? And what part of the universe do they need to own that they can't realize that their insistence that poor nations continue honouring agreements are leading to disagreements which are apt to spawn vengeful creatures akin to those which walk into shopping centres swaddled in TNT? Did Argentina overextend itself? Is Canada overextended? The US? As a species are we giving ourselves too much credit?
From: outside the loop | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 31 December 2001 05:13 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, Victor Von Mediaboy, here is your chance! Argentina is in need of a new president (again) and I can't imagine that anyone else wants that job.
From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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posted 31 December 2001 07:47 PM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Well, if they don't pay off their debt, no one will lend them money any more.

That's a bad thing.

I'm told.


From: The Alley, Behind Montgomery's Tavern | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 02 January 2002 05:35 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Lending money is a gamble. As long as someone thinks they can make money off it, they will lend. It might be hard for Argentina for a while, but eventually its credit will improve.

Meanwhile, in case you didn't know that Argentina was a darling of neoliberal ideologues in the 1990's: it privatized and liberalized everything up the butt, and followed the most fashionable monetary policy the US had to offer. Presto! A f*cked-up country!!!

Argentina's Crisis is a US Failure -- Paul Krugman


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
clockwork
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posted 02 January 2002 05:41 AM      Profile for clockwork     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I thought New Zealand was the epitome of neo-liberal thought. You know, the country that just nationalized their airline industry,
From: Pokaroo! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 02 January 2002 05:45 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
DrConway, if you could find that link I sent you on New Zealand? Wait, let me look...

http://www.johnkay.com/articles/search.php?action=view&doc_id=158&date=&title=&topic=


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
WingNut
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posted 02 January 2002 08:38 AM      Profile for WingNut   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
And somewhere in the offices of Ireland's Parliament:

"Sir, the New York Times is saying Ireland, the Celtic Tiger, is the darling of the neo-liberal economists and the Chicago School of Business."
"Christ, its all over. Have a helicopter for London standing ready and begin transferring as much as you can to Swiss bank accounts."


From: Out There | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
rasmus
malcontent
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posted 03 January 2002 03:53 AM      Profile for rasmus   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Argentine Crisis, IMF Fingerprints

quote:

The IMF now claims that it was against the fixed exchange rate, and the massive loans to support it, all along. Fund officials say they went along with these policies to please the Argentine government. So now Argentina tells the U.S. government what to do! This is not a very credible story, but of course verifying who made what decision is a little like tracking the chain of command at al Qaeda. IMF board meetings, consultations with government ministers and other deliberations are secret.

[ January 03, 2002: Message edited by: rasmus_raven ]


From: Fortune favours the bold | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
audra trower williams
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posted 03 January 2002 03:48 PM      Profile for audra trower williams   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
Can I be known as Victor Von MediaBoy and wear a metal mask and green cape?

The cape is up to you


From: And I'm a look you in the eye for every bar of the chorus | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
clockwork
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posted 09 January 2002 01:45 PM      Profile for clockwork     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
the root causes of Argentina's crisis are unbridled public spending, corrupt politicians, poor tax revenues and widespread disdain for the local currency -- none of which can be remedied by devaluation, analysts say.

What finally pushed Argentina over the edge, they add, was the greed of international investors and bad timing by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury.

``Argentina was Washington's star pupil, and Wall Street's best client. The goose that laid the golden eggs,'' explained Walter Molano, Latin American economist at BCP Securities in Greenwich, Conn.


Analysts Describe Argentine Crisis


From: Pokaroo! | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged

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