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Author Topic: Brazil 2006 election
Wilf Day
Babbler # 3276

posted 07 October 2006 01:23 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
While Lula was forced into a second round, the Congress has shifted to the left.

How much so is hard to say; the multitude of parties are partly because of some parties being regionally-based. Brazilian deputies are inveterate party-hoppers; some deputies switch parties so fast that there are different versions of the 2002 results. But however you count them, the main conservative parties lost ground:

Federal deputies just elected compared with deputies elected in 2002:

Party, 2006, 2002
Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) 89, 87 or 76 (centrist, some are "governmental" Lula supporters)
Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) 83, 58 or 91 (Lula's party)
Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) 65, 94 or 70 (conservatives)
Partido da Frente Liberal (PFL) 65, 98 or 84 (conservatives)
Partido Progressista (PP) 42, 53 or 48(conservatives)
Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) 27, 22
Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) 24, 21
Partido Liberal (PL) 23, 26 (centre-left)
Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro (PTB) 22, 33 or 26
Partido Popular Socialista (PPS) 21, 15
Partido Verde (PV) 13, 5
Partido Comunista do Brasil (PC do B) 13, 12
Partido Social Cristão (PSC) 9, 1
Partido Trabalhista Cristão (PTC) 4, 0
Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL) 3, 0
Partido da Mobilização Nacional (PMN) 3, 1
Partido de Reedificação da Ordem Nacional (PRONA) 2, 6
Partido Humanista da Solidariedade (PHS) 2, 0
Partido Trabalhista do Brasil (PT do B) 1
Partido dos Aposentados da Nação (PAN) 1
Partido Republicano Brasileiro (PRB) 1

Note that Lula was forced into a second round by the splintering of his left-wing. In the second round, no doubt the voters for Heloísa Helena will come back to Lula:

Lula (PT/PRB/PC do B) 46,662,365 48.6
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB/PFL) 39,968,369 41.6
Heloísa Helena (PSTU/PCB/PSOL) 6,575,393 6.8
Cristovam Buarque (PDT) 2,538,844 2.6

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
a lonely worker
Babbler # 9893

posted 07 October 2006 06:53 AM      Profile for a lonely worker     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Have there been any new developments on that scandal that just conveniently broke before last week's vote? Since the election has Heloisa Helena said anything about supporting Lula?
From: Anywhere that annoys neo-lib tools | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
Babbler # 3276

posted 07 October 2006 09:50 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Originally posted by a lonely worker:
Since the election has Heloisa Helena said anything about supporting Lula?

Leftist candidate Heloísa Helena Lima de Moraes Carvalho has said she won't endorse either man.

The votes to the left of the PT came in at 6.75% for Heloísa Helena and her post-PT party, the PSOL.

The "HH Factor," as it's been dubbed in the media, no doubt made a difference in the contest, as one imagines PSOL voters would have otherwise voted for the PT. In a system with the possibility of run-off elections these hardly count as only protest votes. Unless these voters now vote for Lula's opponent and his center-right coalition and his platform of privatizing the remaining state-owned firms, many of these votes will go to the PT. And even if they cast blank ballots in protest, this would also help an eventual PT victory.

Lula had high acceptance rates from the poor, and very high rejection rates from those in upper income brackets. Some of it, no doubt, has to do with a kind of popular appeal that Lula has among the poorest electors, but much of it has to do with seeing the direct benefits of the administration's programs. Accordingly, regional votes that came in were very different. The South and Southeast rejected Lula (whereas at one point in time, a state like Rio Grande do Sul could have been counted on to vote to the left), and Lula had very high approval rates in the poorer North and Northeast. The PT elected three governors - in Piauí, Sergipe, and Bahia, states far from the traditional bases of support of the party, places rather known for the rule of notoriously conservative land-owners.

. . . it is this polarization of the electorate that makes this election interesting for the future of the PT - Lula's rejection by large portions of the middle class could mean that he's freed from having to play at a middle-class acceptability. A clear base of support among the poor at the same time the party is freed from electoral coalitions could mean new priorities. The lack of alliances this time around could mean a cohesive ruling coalition around issues of social justice and redistribution. And the regional weight of the North and Northeast in an eventual second Lula term could cause a real shake-up within a party almost always dominated by leaders from São Paulo state. A turn to the Northeast, to address Brazil's lonstanding regional disparities in human, economic, and social development, would be a new set of priorities for the PT and for Brazil's national government, and fulfill some longstanding desires for equity and social justice in the country. But it means more. Social movements in the North and Northeast have for a long time operated with different horizons of possibility - unlike the South or Southeast, being "part of government" is relatively new to the lexicon of social movements there, a basically uncommon occurrence until the last two municipal elections. This, of course, means social movement practices are more likely to be untainted by the bad habits of "being government" and used to more contestatory practices against ruling elites. Today the national leadership of the PT has very few Norheasterners or Northeners. Whether the PT wins this time around is one question. Whether the PT after the election (whether it wins or loses) is able to incorporate these new actors into its leadership structure and reshape itself is another.

Helena was among several legislators expelled from Lula's Workers Party (PT, according to its initials in Portuguese) in 2003 for challenging the government's turn to the right.
She has the support of the Party of Socialism and Liberation (PSOL), made up of groupings and individuals who were expelled from or quit the PT, as well as the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) and the Trotskyist Unified Socialist Workers Party (PSTU).

Her PSOL elected only 3 deputies, the PSTU and PCB none. The PSOL's were 1 from São Paulo, 1 from Rio de Janeiro, and 1 from Rio Grande do Sul, but none from her home state of Alagoas.

An inquiry ran by Datafolha gives Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading margin of 50 percent for the October 29 second round of the general elections.

Contender Geraldo Alckmin (Partido Social Demacrata Brasileno (PSDB), scores 43 percent. If blank, annulled votes and undecided were included, Lula would excel Alckmin 54 to 46 percent. . . of the people that backed Heloisa Helena (Partido Socialismo and Libertad), 48 percent follow Alckmin and Lula 32 percent.
While supporters of Cristovam Buarque (Partido Democratico Laborista) will vote for fifty-fifty for Lula and Alckmin.

Even Communists party-hop:
Thirteen Communists were elected deputies and, for the first time since 1946, a Communist was elected senator, from the northeastern state of Ceara. (Brazil’s national legislature is composed of a 513-member Chamber of Deputies and an 81-member Senate.) With another senator having joined the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) since his election on different ticket in 2002, Brazil will now have two Communist senators.

(The Partido Comunista do Brasil (PC do B) which elected 13 deputies and supports Lula is not to be confused with the Partido Comunista Brasileiro (PCB) which elected none and supported Heloísa Helena. But then again, Brazil has ten major parties, not counting the Green Party or either of the Communist parties, so it's hard to keep track. This is partly a legacy of the way democracy was restored after the last period of military rule: it started at the state level. Luckily for Brazil, the ten-plus parties often manage to work together nationally. )

[ 08 October 2006: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged

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