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Author Topic: US Headed for Recession?
Kindred
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posted 08 April 2003 03:20 PM      Profile for Kindred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
A number of economists are warning — based on recent weaker-than-expected economic data — that the economy is faltering. A few go as far as to say that we are close to another recession.

"Investors could be in for a rude awakening" once the war comes to an end, according to David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch in New York. In a report to clients of Merrill Lynch Monday, he warned, "the economy is back on the precipice of recession."

Investors have been trading on war news and ignoring the economic data, believes Rosenberg. "The markets do not seem to be priced for the weakness that we expect in the economy."

The economist also argued another month of significant job losses would likely push the economy over the edge.


http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/business/WorldNewsTonight/iraq_USeconomy_030408.html

What does that mean for our own economy? Things are just getting more and more depressing every day


From: British Columbia | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 08 April 2003 03:41 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
We're experiencing mild inflationary pressures here in Canada, primarily due to higher consumption taxes and energy prices. This means we may experience recession in our own way - a stagflation due to high prices and a lowering of demand caused by them.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Kindred
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posted 08 April 2003 04:12 PM      Profile for Kindred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
The US sneezes and we catch a cold?
From: British Columbia | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Scout
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posted 08 April 2003 04:23 PM      Profile for Scout     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Now how do convince some Canadians that our economy isn't being tanked because we didn't sign up for war but because the US has ignored it's own problems. That it was going happen either way.
From: Toronto, ON Canada | Registered: Oct 2001  |  IP: Logged
Adam Smith
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posted 09 April 2003 05:11 AM      Profile for Adam Smith     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
US Headed for Recession?

When were they on the way out.


From: Manitoba | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Kindred
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posted 10 April 2003 06:06 PM      Profile for Kindred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
If we are hearing grumblings of recession and having already lived through one I would suggest that people consider what happened last time - mortgage rates went as high as 18% so if you arent locked in you might want to consider locking in now for a ten year term. If you are planning on staying put and pay out penalties arent an issue .. or make sure your mortgage is portable in case you do sell .. get that in writing because banks wont be anxious to port a low interest rate mortgage if a recession hits.
A recession can last longer than 5 years, so when we know for sure lock in for more than that.

Other bank rates can sky rockets as well - so take a look at debt you have - it might be worth consolidating and locking in at a low rate now. Make sure any loans, financing have a locked in rate - I believe credit card rates can fluctuate if not locked in at a certain rate.

Dont tie up investments in long terms right now, stay fairly fluid, during the last recession my uncle locked in at a lifetime return of 18% on his annuities and has been reaping the benefits ever since.

I would advise everyone to keep a close eye on bank rates and the market and if it looks like we are heading for a recession take steps to protect yourself asap -


From: British Columbia | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 10 April 2003 09:28 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
I must post an errata to Kindred's point: The advice given is good *if* the recession will be inflationary, as in 1974 or 1981.
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
R. J. Dunnill
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posted 24 April 2003 05:25 PM      Profile for R. J. Dunnill   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
quote:
We're experiencing mild inflationary pressures here in Canada, primarily due to higher consumption taxes and energy prices. This means we may experience recession in our own way - a stagflation due to high prices and a lowering of demand caused by them.
Which reminds me of something I read in Schlesinger's book, "1000 Days," which was that in the early Sixties, economists believed that the highest structural unemployment rate acceptable was 4%. Here, in Canada of 2003, we have a Bank of Canada governor who believes that 10%-plus structural unemployment is TOO LOW!

My how times change.

RD


From: Surrey, B.C. | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 24 April 2003 06:08 PM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
Used to be 9% unemployment would get a government turfed out of office so hard you could hear the explosion in Tuktoyaktuk.

Now people are just resigned to it.

That's the sort of thing I rail against when I accuse my elders at the levers of power today of having made a bargain in bad faith with people of my generation.


From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
R. J. Dunnill
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posted 25 April 2003 03:49 AM      Profile for R. J. Dunnill   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post  Reply With Quote 
My hypothesis is that it's a combination of a monetarist fiscal policy and a quiet strategy to compete on the basis of wages rather than state-of-the-art productivity.

RD


From: Surrey, B.C. | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged

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