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Author Topic: Most Accurate Pollster
Malcolm
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posted 14 October 2008 11:27 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Despite the praising of Nanos and the dissing of Angus Reid as an "online poll,"

Most accurate 2008 election pollster ?
Angus-Reid: Con 38% Lib 28% Ndp 18% Bloc 9% Grn 6%
Actual: Con 37.4% Lib 27.3% Ndp 18.3% Bloc 9.2% Grn 6.5%


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 October 2008 11:40 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Then again Angus Reid also did an online poll in Saskatchewan that said 40% CPC and 35% NDP ended up being off by a mile!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 14 October 2008 11:43 PM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, Nanos really let me down. It was because of them that I was getting excited about the election for a few days there. The honeymoon is over.
From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 15 October 2008 08:29 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In fact, my consistent position has been that all the pollsters are as accurate as the rest. In a given election, someone's final numbers are going to be closer to the actual results than everyone else's.

I was tired of the constant BS that Nanos was right and the rest were crap.

But Angus Reid was getting particular grief because lying Liberals liked to compare it to an online survey,

I just wanted to rub their noses in it.


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Brian White
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posted 15 October 2008 09:11 PM      Profile for Brian White   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In the first past the post system, these figures have nothing to do with the number of seats gained.
In many ridings in alberta, the conservative won with thousands of votes to spare. Some ridings elsewhere were decided by a few hundred votes.
Polling cannot measure this.
Polling must be riding specific to be useful.
quote:
Originally posted by Malcolm:
Despite the praising of Nanos and the dissing of Angus Reid as an "online poll,"

Most accurate 2008 election pollster ?
Angus-Reid: Con 38% Lib 28% Ndp 18% Bloc 9% Grn 6%
Actual: Con 37.4% Lib 27.3% Ndp 18.3% Bloc 9.2% Grn 6.5%



From: Victoria Bc | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 15 October 2008 09:12 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think that when all the poll have the Conservatives about 10% ahead of the Liberals in national popular vote - its a pretty safe bet that the Conservatives will get the most seats - and they did.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 15 October 2008 09:24 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Brian White:
In the first past the post system, these figures have nothing to do with the number of seats gained.

Who said they did?

It was a comment about which poll came closest to the popular vote.

Have you considered Valium?


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 15 October 2008 09:25 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Too bad Nanos didn't get Ontario right!
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 15 October 2008 09:31 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
BT, by way of curiosity, I ran the popular vote figures through the Hill and Knowlton predictor. It came up with:

Conservatives - 143 (143)
Liberals - 75 (76)
New Democrats - 38 (37)
Bloc Quebecois - 51 (50)
Independent - 1 (2)

The individual seat projections were utterly screwed, of course, but I thought it was amusing that it came so close to being correct despite a completely BS methodology.


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RedRover
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posted 15 October 2008 11:32 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Angus Reid appears to be the closest, and much to my surprise. Credit is due.

I think Angus Reid still produces some unusual results from time to time, like the 21-21 tie b/t the Liberals and NDP in week 2 or 3, but being the pollster with the closest result in the end has quelled my criticism for the time being.

Internet based polling in general is becoming more accurate via weighting - assigning respondents views a value based upon demographic characteristics. Angus Reid is improving, clearly, in this respect.

In the future, I still expect to see some unusual results from this pollster from time to time, but they are certainly beyond the mocking stage with this result. They should be considered a serious pollster just as any other telephone based pollster, and should even improve along with their weighting methods as time moves on.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


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RedRover
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posted 15 October 2008 11:36 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
As for Nanos, I always thought his status was, wrongly, elevated to mythical levels because of his 2006 'slot machine' type predication. I use that term because his regional numbers were off, substantially, but his national numbers came up all 7's. One lucky result.

I do like the daily tracking format though, also used by Decima this time out. It allows for a constant feedback loop and shows any national trend quite well...even the Conservative uptick at the end. Bulk up the sample size and this method would be more accurate in a general sense as well.

[ 15 October 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


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Parkdale High Park
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posted 16 October 2008 01:59 AM      Profile for Parkdale High Park     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Possible explanation: the shy Tory factor. The Conservatives have big negatives so people are more likely to identify as undecideds or Greens (the other vote-parking party) on telephone polls. Online polls don't have that issue.
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nicky
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posted 16 October 2008 06:06 AM      Profile for nicky     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here are the final polls. Except for the final day Nanos I have rounded off all fractions.


Con Lib NDP Green BQ
Leger 36 27 20 9 8
Error 9 -2 +1 +2 -2 -2
Segma 35 23 21 10 10
Error 12 -3 -3 +3 +3 =
Strategic Cn 33 28 19 11 10
Error 12 -5 +2 +1 +4 =
Robinson 34 26 22 8 9
Error 10 -4 = +4 +1 -1
Ekos 34 26 18 11 10
Error -4 = = +4 =
Harris Dec 34 25 19 9 11
Error 9 -4 -1 +1 +2 +1
Nanos 34 26 21 8 10
Error 8 -4 = +3 +1 =
Nanos
Oct 12 37.1 26.7 20.3 7.1 8.7
Error 4.7 -0.5 +0.5 +2.1 +0.3 -1.3

Overall I think the polls were quite accurate.

I suspect that the low turnout skewered the numbers towards the Conservatives and against the Greens and NDP. All the polls showed the Conservative vote was the firmest and the Green and NDP the weakest.

The final day Nanos was closest to the actual result, particularly in detecting a last minute swing to the Conservatives.

It is noteworthy that 42% for the Bloq in Quebec in 2006 yielded 10.5 % of the nationwide total. A sharp drop of 4% (to 38%) only reduced its national vote to 10.0. This is obviously a matter of greater turnout in Quebec.

I also expect there were some minor last minute crossovers. Lib to Con, Green to Lib and NDP, NDP to Lib


From: toronto | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 16 October 2008 06:29 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Keep in mind also that since the NDP vote tends to skew towards younger people and to people with lower incomes - we get affected a bit by a lower turnout.
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Mojoroad1
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posted 16 October 2008 09:31 AM      Profile for Mojoroad1     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Keep in mind also that since the NDP vote tends to skew towards younger people and to people with lower incomes - we get affected a bit by a lower turnout.

That is an understatement. If nothing else - and it seems I am a contrairian(sp) to most NDP - and for that matter, other party orthodoxy- that there should be significant focus on the youth vote, & Quebec. Throw money at it. Get those university associations not only financial support, but support from NDP in every way shape and form. Get popular, high profile NDP MP/MPP's in the schools to talk about the issues that matter to them. Heck, Get Charlie Angus on Much Music to reform a band and swing through the schools. Jack can play a pretty good guitar too!

Also Re: low income people- this is THE challenge. They're the NDP's natural consistency ..and they don't vote we all know that. and of course we also have to fight off "Blue Collar" Conservative MSM - like the Sun Chain pravda - at the same time...remember, and this is important IMV.. people read the Sun (at least in Toronto) not for their politics/news. By and large the consensus is they have the BEST SPORTS SECTION.

Furthermore: The net & digital media. The Orange Room was a brilliant move. The NDP is no longer bringing knives to a gun fight. Layton was the only Canadian Pol on slashdot. Great move. Also Charlie Angus is the standard barer for progressive copyright laws. The NDP should be trumpeting this far and wide. I also believe FIRMLY that there should be an NDP presence on second life and any other virtual media ...heck Reuters and Rabble are already there!

There was a thread earlier about the National post being up for sale.... if the left could get a consortium to buy it they should (with a greatly expanded sports section ) even though it's hemorrhaging money (at about 10 mil a year) it still has market penetration you could salivate over.

just my thoughts.

[end thread drift)


From: Muskoka | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
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posted 16 October 2008 09:44 AM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Mojoroad1:

That is an understatement. If nothing else - and it seems I am a contrairian(sp) to most NDP - and for that matter, other party orthodoxy- that there should be significant focus on the youth vote, & Quebec. Throw money at it. Get those university associations not only financial support, but support from NDP in every way shape and form. Get popular, high profile NDP MP/MPP's in the schools to talk about the issues that matter to them. Heck, Get Charlie Angus on Much Music to reform a band and swing through the schools. Jack can play a pretty good guitar too!

Also Re: low income people- this is THE challenge. They're the NDP's natural consistency ..and they don't vote we all know that. and of course we also have to fight off "Blue Collar" Conservative MSM - like the Sun Chain pravda - at the same time...remember, and this is important IMV.. people read the Sun (at least in Toronto) not for their politics/news. By and large the consensus is they have the BEST SPORTS SECTION.

Furthermore: The net & digital media. The Orange Room was a brilliant move. The NDP is no longer bringing knives to a gun fight. Layton was the only Canadian Pol on slashdot. Great move. Also Charlie Angus is the standard barer for progressive copyright laws. The NDP should be trumpeting this far and wide. I also believe FIRMLY that there should be an NDP presence on second life and any other virtual media ...heck Reuters and Rabble are already there!

There was a thread earlier about the National post being up for sale.... if the left could get a consortium to buy it they should (with a greatly expanded sports section ) even though it's hemorrhaging money (at about 10 mil a year) it still has market penetration you could salivate over.

just my thoughts.

[end thread drift)


Thread drift continued - now that would be interesting. finally a national newspaper of the left.


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
It's Me D
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posted 16 October 2008 09:56 AM      Profile for It's Me D     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
you don't read the socialist worker?
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josh
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posted 16 October 2008 10:05 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The problem is that none of the pollsters polled on Monday. They might have detected the shift to the Conservatives that Nanos picked up on Sunday. Because of that, it's difficult to come up with a definite judgment on the pollsters' performance.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 16 October 2008 10:17 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Malcolm:
Have you considered Valium?

This was completely unprovoked by anything Brian said. Please refrain.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 16 October 2008 10:20 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I like the idea about funding college and university NDP associations. At Ryerson, I see all sorts of posters and flyers about the student Green Party association. I've never seen anything about the NDP.
From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
brookmere
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posted 16 October 2008 10:41 AM      Profile for brookmere     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Keep in mind also that since the NDP vote tends to skew towards younger people and to people with lower incomes - we get affected a bit by a lower turnout.

But it also skews toward people with more education, and urban voters, both of whom I'd expect to be more likely to turn out. Don't know how that all nets out.

Con vote skews towards higher incomes and against education and urban voters (no surprise there), and the Liberal vote skews toward urban but is about neutral across both education and income.


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Stockholm
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posted 16 October 2008 10:48 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not sure that the NDP vote skews urban. We seem to do better in northern Ontario than we do in Toronto or Montreal.

Also, don't be so sure that turnout is higher in the cities. Some of the lowest turnout levels are in ridings in Toronto while totally rural PEI always has the highest turnout in the country!


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brookmere
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posted 16 October 2008 12:10 PM      Profile for brookmere     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
On the Prairies, both East and West coasts and in Quebec, the NDP vote definitely skews urban. In Quebec of course that's mainly because it's skewed Anglo.

And I think that's true in Ontario too. It may not appear that way just by looking at a map, but big does not necessarily mean rural. Many Northern Ontario ridings are more urban than those in Southern Ontario outside the major cities. Almost all their population lives in centres such as Thunder Bay or Sudbury. Also many Northern Ontario races are 3 way which allows the NDP to carry them with little over 1/3 of the vote (e.g. Sudbury).


From: BC (sort of) | Registered: Jun 2005  |  IP: Logged

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