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Author Topic: Liberals Lose Another Candidate
KenS
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posted 06 August 2008 02:46 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In PEI, of all places- where Liberal wins are cakewalks.

Morrissey exits race for Egmont

I'm not assuming this is another wheels falling off the wagon thing.

Anyone know or heard any rumours why this guy is bowing out?


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 06 August 2008 07:23 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ken, the spin even around the Conservatives' ad buy down east (notwithstanding Peter MacKay messing up his lines) is that they believe there are a few rural Atlantic seats ripe for poaching from the Libs, especially over the Green Shift/Carbon Tax proposal. The Atlantic Truckers just came out against it, I read.

Also, I gather from some of the commenters (probably mostly partisan spinners, but still) that the Conservative candidate in that riding, Gail Shea, may be a bit more formidable.

Anyways, I forget where I read the speculation, but it seems the Conservatives feel they can pick up a couple of seats in Nova Scotia (West Nova and Kings Hants where you live), perhaps one or two in PEI (I guess we're saying Egmont at least), and maybe one in New Brunswick (no idea which one, but I notice Dion included a trip there on his Green Shift tour).

How do you like their chances against Brison the way things stand now?

ETA: By the way, downloading that article on dialup was brutal! (and yes, I've been dying to say that to you for months !) ;-)

[ 06 August 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 06 August 2008 07:43 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's hard to imagine Brison getting picked off. He works the constituency well and has avoided defeat despite the challenges he faced when a) he switched parties and b) he came out as gay. The Conservatives hold the local provincial seats.
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largeheartedboy
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posted 06 August 2008 08:15 PM      Profile for largeheartedboy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
As I was born and raised in Egmont, I think I can speak about the riding with some authority.

I would think that Morrissey quit, at least partly, because he is increasingly skeptical of his chances of winning.

We can debate the Green Shift till the cows come home, but I think it's clear that it will be a tough sell in Atlantic Canada where everyone heats their home with oil, a car is seen as a necessity and public transit is mostly non existent. Egmont meets all three of these criteria.

Gail Shea (who incidentally, is from Tignish, the same town as Morrissey) was a two-term provincial cabinet minister and before that worked in Premier Binns' office. She's certainly a formidable candidate, who may be able to overcome the enmity that most Islanders have for Harper.

I wonder if Dr. Herb Dickieson would be interested in running. He runs the perfect campaign, he might even have a shot at this riding. I think he could get at least 25%.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
largeheartedboy
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posted 06 August 2008 08:16 PM      Profile for largeheartedboy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

ETA: By the way, downloading that article on dialup was brutal! (and yes, I've been dying to say that to you for months !) ;-)

[ 06 August 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


The Transcontinental Media web sites are SOOOOO bad lately. Must be all the fricking ads and crap in the layout.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Sombrero Jack
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posted 07 August 2008 05:27 AM      Profile for Sombrero Jack     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Having also been born and raised in Egmont, as well as living there now, I'd say largeheartedboy's analysis is fairly sound. Neither Dion nor the Green Shift are particularly popular around Egmont, though there remains a strong wariness towards Harper and his party.

Gail Shea is probably the best candidate the Conservatives could field in this riding. She's familiar and unthreatening to the electorate, if a little too based in the Western part of the riding. It would have been a good fight between her and Morrissey - in 1996, the one time they faced off provincially, Morrissey won by a 53%-43% margin. Unless the Liberals find a similarly strong candidate (former premier Keith Milligan lost the nomination to Morrissey last fall), this probably makes Shea a slight favorite to win the seat. A Dr. Herb candidacy is intriguing, but I'd say his ceiling is right around that 25% figure.

I expect the big pitch from the Shea campaign to be that in electing her, the Island will get a voice at the cabinet table. Right now, with all 4 Island MPs being Liberals, Peter MacKay is the putative representative of PEI's interests in Harper's inner circle.


From: PEI | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 07 August 2008 05:29 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There isn't a hope in hell the Cons could knock off Scott Brison. and th So I have to think that the source you are speaking of was in the wingnut cheerleader category.

I don't live on the Island, or even hear the kind of scuttlebutt at ground level that I hear from around NS and NB. But I find it difficult to imagine that conditions have changed enough that the Liberals don't have a lock for now even on a seat without an incumbent.

That said, campaigns in PEI are pretty minimally organized- and big shifts happen every several years. Less often federally, but still happen. So both the Libs and Cons may have polling that tells them there will be some races- especially Egmont.

But I don't think that having unexpectedly to fight for the seat- or a strong candidate- would in itself explain the Lib candidate dropping out.

So I'm fishing to hear if there is something else going on.

There aren't many seats in Maritimes with close margins, and this is steadily infertile ground for the Cons. I can't see the Green Shift suspicions overcoming that. So I think more likely that we're hearing spinning hot air surrounding a strategy that is really about seeing if they can stand still here- or close to it- despite the reasonable expectation of them dropping seats here.

Thibault in West Nova is a real target for them, for sure. And the PEI seats are easy to make a pass at and the most potentially volatile at any time, so theres that.

There is not another seat in NS they have a remote chance to pick up. I don't remember the margins of all the Lib NB MPs, so maybe there is one there.

But they can always create mischief for the Liberals: at least get them to expend resources to make their gains here, and hold the Libs to zero net if the Cons are lucky. They have the money to make it easy to try, and now is the time to do it. During the election they will be much more cautious about putting resources here because of the spending limit.

What we may be seeing is the dry runs for softening up campaigns that target particular ridings across Canada. The hot air spinning being a deliberate adjunct... getting the buzz going.

I speculated about that last week in the thread on party financing and spending.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
alisea
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posted 07 August 2008 05:40 AM      Profile for alisea     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree with Ken re Scott Brison. The man owns that riding for as long as he wants it. He is incredibly popular - he could run for the [insert name of lunatic fringe party] there and get in with 50%+.
From: Halifax, Nova Scotia | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 07 August 2008 05:54 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's another article on Morissey quiting.

But nothing there other than the Cons working to spin it for as much as they can. That said, its a multi-pronged regional approach getting attention. So it can be said to working even if there is nothing to it but hot air at this point.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
sgm
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posted 07 August 2008 06:55 AM      Profile for sgm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I don't remember the margins of all the Lib NB MPs, so maybe there is one there.

There is, if I recall correctly, more than one close seat in NB (e.g. Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi).

Besides, margins don't tell the whole tale: Andy Scott isn't running again, so F'ton may be in play this time as well.


From: I have welcomed the dawn from the fields of Saskatchewan | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 07 August 2008 10:21 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Madawaska-Restigouche is probably within reach for the Cons. [And did the MP retire?]

Not really Miriamichi, and I think Fredricton is a long shot as long as Harper is around, even with Scott retiring.

But again, the Cons have enough money and organizational resources to at least tie the Liberals up in these places the Libs can't take for granted. And the 'lucky breaks' go those who are pushing hard in campaigns.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 07 August 2008 11:17 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ken, I think you're on to something since it would be a win for the Conservatives just to force the Libs into spending precious resources to keep the seats they have ... it's hard to grow that way.

The Liberal M.P. in Madawaska-Restigouche, J.C. d'Amours, is apparently renominated. I've seen him up in the House from time to time ... he seems young enough to qualify as a serious Liberal candidate (joke, eh, Robert Thibault!).

Unfortunately for the Conservatives there, their candidate has just run into a bit of a bad news cycle over some former business dealings (a story in last week's Chronicle-Herald, so I doubt it's online anymore).


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Northern54
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posted 07 August 2008 03:12 PM      Profile for Northern54     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And another candidate throwing in the towel... in Saskatchewan this time... Regina-Palliser?
From: Yellowknife | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
NorthReport
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posted 07 August 2008 04:22 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Garry Oledzki is the latest candidate to bite the dust.

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1108&Itemid=26

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:wanttbCCFjIJ:www.garryoledzki.liberal.ca/+Garry+Oledzki&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ca


From: From sea to sea to sea | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 07 August 2008 11:01 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The departure of Oledski, following on the mysterious hospitalization of Tory incumbent Dave Batters, really changes the dynamic in Palliser. I tmay just serve to make the seat more winnable for the NDP.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 08 August 2008 05:24 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
You have to think that the Liberals having candidate trouble is not going to encourage Batters.

The Liberal vote in the riding has already been dropping across elections. So the more they are seen as cannot possibly win, the better for the NDP, Batters only real worry.

As to Batters health. You have to think that the reason they are not talking is because his health issues are very serious... and they are hoping to wait to announce good enough news to quash any public sense he cannot go full tilt as MP and during an election.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 08 August 2008 03:46 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
As to Batters health. You have to think that the reason they are not talking is because his health issues are very serious... and they are hoping to wait to announce good enough news to quash any public sense he cannot go full tilt as MP and during an election.

There's another possibility. In 2003 in Ontario the Liberals just shut up about Dominic Agostino.

Agostino had been battling liver cancer and came close to death from pneumonia during last fall's provincial election campaign. He had served in the front ranks of the Liberal opposition for nine years, but when the party came to power he was too ill to serve in the cabinet. Despite this, few people outside his family and his staff even knew that he was seriously ill. Less than six months later he succumbed to the cancer they had hidden.

Not that I think Batters has cancer, but you never know.

[ 08 August 2008: Message edited by: Wilf Day ]


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 08 August 2008 05:12 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
But there's a big difference.

For whatever reason, Batters dissapeared from sight. And he has to run in a tightrace. So the questions of his health WILL come up.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 08 August 2008 05:31 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Less than six months later he succumbed to the cancer they had hidden.

I heard it wasn't actually cancer, but i digress.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
pebbles
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posted 08 August 2008 07:39 PM      Profile for pebbles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Question: How many candidates have the TORIES lost in Atlantic Canada?

Answer: More than any other party.


From: Canada | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 08 August 2008 08:06 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
When it comes to Liberals clamming up, don't forget the case of John Richardson over in Perth-Middlesex...
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landon
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posted 09 August 2008 04:55 AM      Profile for landon     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Morrissy was offered a lucrative job in the private sector and felt it was too good an oppurtunity to pass up. his dropping out had nothing to do with his chances of winning. don't for a minute believe the rhetoric spouted by tory supporters. why would anyone vote for a cpc candidate to have them go to ottawa and be muzzled.cpc will lose seats in the east not gain.
From: p.e.i. | Registered: Aug 2008  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 09 August 2008 05:19 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think anyone beleives the predictable nonsense coming from the Harper Crew.

But 'job in the private sector' and 'family reasons'- while they are sometimes the real reason for stepping out- are also the most common smoke screens when something else is going on.

So as far as I'm concerned there may be something else going on- even if fears of not winning are highly unliklely to be that 'something else'.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
largeheartedboy
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posted 09 August 2008 08:28 PM      Profile for largeheartedboy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If any Liberal MP on PEI, save Shawn Murphy in Charlottetown, isn't a little worried about losing, then they will definitely lose.

Because I don't think anyone with knowledge of PEI politics can pretend for a second that the Green Shift isn't going to go over like a lead balloon in rural PEI.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 09 August 2008 10:30 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm among those who expect that the Liberals are going to pay for the 'Green Shift'.

But I see no evidence that it will be any more than A stick for the Cons to beat them with, rather than THE stick.

And least of all likely that the stick will be huge in Atlantic Canada, where there is still a lot of Harper emnity to overcome.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
NorthReport
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posted 15 August 2008 05:03 PM      Profile for NorthReport     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
These Liberal candidate resignations just keep coming, this time, for the second time, in Maple Ridge. BC.

quote:
The Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge–Mission federal Liberals have lost yet another candidate, after Parrissa Aujla stepped down from the post after receiving the party’s nomination in April.

Aujla, a Maple Ridge mom of three and owner of the Billy Miner Pub and Liquor Store with her husband, Am, accepted the nomination to represent the Liberal Party of Canada in the next federal election after the previous candidate, Rani Bellwood, pulled out in February.


http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/mapleridgenews/news/26892454.html


From: From sea to sea to sea | Registered: Jul 2008  |  IP: Logged
janfromthebruce
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posted 15 August 2008 06:25 PM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
As Accidental Deliberations stated "word comes out today that at least one of the candidates whose withdrawal was claimed by some to be a reaction to Dion's policies had entirely different reasons to step down."law society of Sask.

Hat trick to Accidental Deliberations


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 17 August 2008 10:56 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Pretty serious stuff. Presuming this hurts the Liberals (which it ought to do, even if only in terms of having a second choice candidate later on the ground), combined with the mysterious disappearance of Tory MP Dave Batters (surely the rumours are worse than the truth would have been) - Palliser is shaping up to be a wide-open race and a much better potential NDP pick.
From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
David Young
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posted 19 August 2008 04:15 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For a list of all of the candidates for all parties who have been nominated, then dropped out as candidates, go to the PUNDIT'S ELECTION GUIDE 2009 at www.punditsguide.ca/ for the complete (so far) list.
From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged

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