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Author Topic: Latest poll C36/L26/ND18/BQ9/Other9
Stockholm
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posted 01 April 2008 05:40 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
No wonder the Liberals will do ANYTHING to avoid an election ANYTHING.

Let's see if we can get Dion to crawl naked over a parking lot covered in broken glass to avoid an election??

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/407824


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
The Wizard of Socialism
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posted 01 April 2008 05:50 AM      Profile for The Wizard of Socialism   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
"Other." That's funny.
From: A Proud Canadian! | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 01 April 2008 06:00 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Angus Reid: "I can't recall a time when an opposition leader had a disapproval rating as high and an approval rating as low."

Is he managing to even outdo the hapless Stockwell Day?

I guess that's possible, since Chretien releived Day of his misery fairly quickly, while Dion is free to drag out his own misery.

quote:
"I can't remember a period when we had a prime minister who generally was not liked and a leader of the opposition who was as weak as Dion is," he said.

So Dion has an historically unique talent.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
The Wizard of Socialism
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posted 01 April 2008 06:31 AM      Profile for The Wizard of Socialism   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Maybe it's just me, but whenever I see Dion I think of the old BBC comedy "Are You Being Served?" There was one character on there named Mrs. Slocum, a nasty, sarcastic old lady - but she was funny. One of her catchphrases was "weak as water." THAT'S Stephane Dion - weak as water.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: The Wizard of Socialism ]


From: A Proud Canadian! | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 01 April 2008 07:03 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
another way of describing him would be "Milquetoast".
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mercy
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posted 01 April 2008 07:38 AM      Profile for Mercy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
10 per cent in Quebec for the NDP. Is that up or down?
From: Ontario, Canada | Registered: Feb 2007  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 01 April 2008 07:47 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The 10% Quebec wide number is consistent- but the error of margin for a regional sample of a national poll would be too large to be looking for any signs of movement.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 01 April 2008 07:59 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
When it comes to Quebec numbers, I tend to trust a province-wide poll by CROP of 1,000 Quebecers over the sub-sample of 240 or so Quebecers in a national survey of 1,000.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 01 April 2008 10:00 AM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
11% approval rating for Dion

That's gotta hurt LOL

Bad thing for Liberals is that they usually lose voters once an election is called. Maybe that had to do with being government... or maybe because they're a big wishy washy parking lot for voters pre-election who aren't paying attention.


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 01 April 2008 11:19 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Could it be his failure to bring down the Harper govenment at play against him?
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Frustrated Mess
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posted 01 April 2008 11:22 AM      Profile for Frustrated Mess   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think it could be. I know my personal opinion of him has gone from bad to worse.
From: doom without the gloom | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Uncle John
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posted 01 April 2008 01:58 PM      Profile for Uncle John     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Dion can't call an election until he has paid off his leadership campaign debts, no matter how good it looks for the Liberal Party

I wish there were a seat calculator on line somewhere. I'd love to plug these numbers in. It's looking like Harper has the same advantage Chretien did over all those years, facing a fractured opposition. I've a got a feeling this would produce a bloom of Tory blue.

Looks like Liberal 'core support' is going over to the NDP. Believe it or not, there are a number of Liberals who don't like the way the Harper government is going. I think every time Dion supports Harper, these voters flee.

It's very interesting there is a bigger spread between the Liberals and the Tories than there is between the Liberals and the NDP.

I can hear the sound of champagne corks in the Tory war room.


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Stephen Gordon
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posted 01 April 2008 04:00 PM      Profile for Stephen Gordon        Edit/Delete Post
I dunno - CPC support is still where it was in the 2006 election. Sure, they'd probably win an election with poll numbers like that, but it's hard to see how they could win a majority.

Until the CPC can reasonably expect a majority, it's hard to see why they'd want an election.


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Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 04:06 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
These are Turner '84 polling numbers for the Liberals, but their vote is so heavily concentrated in the GTA now (with tons of super-safe seats) that I can't see them dropping anywhere near their '84 seat distribution.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Hunky_Monkey
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posted 01 April 2008 04:26 PM      Profile for Hunky_Monkey     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Uncle John:

Looks like Liberal 'core support' is going over to the NDP. Believe it or not, there are a number of Liberals who don't like the way the Harper government is going. I think every time Dion supports Harper, these voters flee.

I would say with this poll, Liberal votes are going the the Greens.


From: Halifax | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 01 April 2008 05:01 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Until the CPC can reasonably expect a majority, it's hard to see why they'd want an election.

Agreed. But they're getting what they want.

They have the initiative at all times. If there's no election, they get their legislation passed in the House. Two birds with one shot there: get what they want, and solidfifying their image.

And since they have the initiative at all times, when an election comes it is always on their terms. Thay are parked in a position where at worst they are still governing, but where they have all the ammo to turn things sideways on the Liberals during the campaign and at least push the Libs closer to the edge even if they don't get to the majority.

And meanwhile, they keep governing.

[Repeat cycle.]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 05:03 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
With these numbers in Ontario, the following are very likely NDP pickups:

Algoma-Manitoulin
Beaches-East York
Kenora
Nickel Belt
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Welland


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 01 April 2008 05:16 PM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Uncle John:
I wish there were a seat calculator on line somewhere.

UBC's 2008 Federal Election Forecaster.

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 01 April 2008 05:20 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
...and don't forget Guelph too!
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 01 April 2008 05:21 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
With these numbers in Ontario, the following are very likely NDP pickups:

Algoma-Manitoulin
Beaches-East York
Kenora
Nickel Belt
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Welland


What about:

Brant
Guelph
Davenport
Scarborough SW
Sudbury
York South - Weston

... or would any of these others start to become viable:

Essex
Kingston and the Islands
Sarnia-Lambton
St. Catherines
Kitchener Centre
London North Centre
London West


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
FrankieK
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posted 01 April 2008 05:22 PM      Profile for FrankieK        Edit/Delete Post
L26+ND18+Other9 = 51%
According to last election, less than 0.3% opt for parties other than the 5 major parites.

So 26%+ 18%+ 8.5% = 52.5%.

It is looking more and more likely that a grand coalition will be the only chance for NDP to form a government.


From: BC | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 05:27 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
...and don't forget Guelph too!

Anyone willing to put up with abuse from Doug the Slug/Peg Leg Pete/I'm Always Right/I'm Never Wrong?


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 05:40 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

What about:

Brant
Guelph
Davenport
Scarborough SW
Sudbury
York South - Weston

... or would any of these others start to become viable:

Essex
Kingston and the Islands
Sarnia-Lambton
St. Catherines
Kitchener Centre
London North Centre
London West


In a byelection scenario with a star candidate like Tom King, I think Guelph is a very winnable for the NDP.

I don't think Davenport is in the cards this time. Tony Ruprecht was able to hang on despite tons of negative press and being just about the worst MP.
York South could be winnable if Tonks stepped aside and Ferreira ran again, but I don't believe either is occurring. Scarborough Southwest is an open seat but I think the NDP would have to have a very, very strong candidate to take it.

Essex is already held by the Conservatives and I don't see their vote dropping there by much. The same is true for Sarnia. Brant is more likely to go the Conservatives. Kingston could go NDP in a situation similar to the Guelph byelection. The rest would require better polling numbers for the NDP in Ontario.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 01 April 2008 05:44 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:

Anyone willing to put up with abuse from Doug the Slug/Peg Leg Pete/I'm Always Right/I'm Never Wrong?


Certainly, if you live in the St. Catharines area, you probably will have to deal with his dirty tricks...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 01 April 2008 05:44 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Okay, I so do not know how to use that UBC election predictor, tried several times for BC.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 01 April 2008 05:46 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
BTW, I feel it's significant that Oshawa hasn't turned up in any of these lists.

Ah, and remember Brant's apparent NDP candidate: one Ian Deans.


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 01 April 2008 05:47 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Also, interesting in those stats is that 22% of women support the NDP, while only 13% for men.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 05:57 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by adma:
BTW, I feel it's significant that Oshawa hasn't turned up in any of these lists.

Oshawa is a possiblity, but the NDP seems to always come up short. But at this point I'm not sure what effect Jim Flaherty will have there.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 01 April 2008 06:05 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by remind:
Okay, I so do not know how to use that UBC election predictor, tried several times for BC.

remind, I just tried it for BC ... just purely as an example, I worked on the row for the Liberal Party (row #2) ... I changed the 0.00 under CPC to 0.10, the 1.00 under Lib to 0.60, the 0.00 under NDP to 0.20, and the 0.00 under Oth to 0.10.

Then I selected show the results for constituencies, and BC, and hit "Forecast".

In English, this is supposed to mean that the Libs keep 60% of their vote, lose 10% to the CPC, 10% to the Greens, and 20% to the NDP.

The system has a small presentation bug, however, because it returns the long names of the parties in the wrong rows (compared with the abbreviations, which are in the same rows by presentation order as on the first page).


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 01 April 2008 06:45 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I don't think Davenport is in the cards this time. Tony Ruprecht was able to hang on despite tons of negative press and being just about the worst MP.

Yeah but Ruprecht also won in the context of the McGuinty Liberals getting re-elected in a landslide. I don't think the federal Liberals under Milquetoast Dion will do nearly as well.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 01 April 2008 07:10 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So that puts the NDP potentially ahead for a win in:

Juan de Fuca Esquimalt

Newton North Delta

and perhaps a close contender in Vancouver Centre

Oops forgot to say thank Ottawa.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: remind ]


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 01 April 2008 07:13 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And there was also a certain presupposition that since Ruprecht's efficiently disposed of stiff challenges in the past, he'd do so again--even moderator Michelle (a constituent?) thought as much, with resignation.

That it was as close as it was, was the real shocker. (And while not as "loathesome" as Ruprecht, Mario Silva's no star, either.)


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 07:43 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by remind:
So that puts the NDP potentially ahead for a win in:

Juan de Fuca Esquimalt

Newton North Delta

and perhaps a close contender in Vancouver Centre

Oops forgot to say thank Ottawa.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: remind ]


Let's hope the small sample size of this poll taken in BC isn't too accurate - it has the Tories at 39%, Liberals at 24%, NDP at 19% and Greens at 16%.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 01 April 2008 07:59 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Do not think it means much, from looking at the election results from 2006, when comparing stats, the CPC would not be in line to get any more seats than they have already.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 01 April 2008 08:14 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by remind:
Do not think it means much, from looking at the election results from 2006, when comparing stats, the CPC would not be in line to get any more seats than they have already.

Mmm ... I think they'll take WestVan-Sunshine Coast back, and it's probably significant that Harper went to a couple of places in the Kootenays a couple of visits back. This either means they'd like another crack at BC Southern Interior before Atamenenko gets too ensconced as an incumbent, or perhaps they believe that Jim Abbott may retire in Kootenay Columbia soon (although he's renominated). Also, I'm sure they'd like another try at Richmond and Newton North Delta (closest 3-way race last time). Finally, I suspect we'll wind up seeing Emerson (should he run again) as the next Conservative candidate in Quadra.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
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posted 01 April 2008 08:18 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think the Conservatives are very likely to take West Van-Sunshine Coast back. There is no evidence of the blue collar NDP vote swinging to the Greens (and that's what the NDP vote is in that riding), and it seems like the kind of riding where Liberals (in West Van and Whistler) will bleed to the Greens.

Richmond and North Van could flip from the Liberals to the Conservatives as well, and it's possible Vancouver Island North (which was very close between the NDP and Tories in the last two elections) could go either way.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 01 April 2008 09:26 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Even if the Cons pick up WV-Sunshine, I think the expectation is that unless they are doing quite well nationally, they'll at best end up with the same BC total seats.

Polling has indidcated that the 2004 and 2006 bleed of old Reform voters to the NDP appears not to have been finished. They could compensate by feasting on some Liberal votes, but in a lot of Cons held ridings Liberal support seems already to have sunk to the hard core supporter floor.

But I think there is a lot of wild card potential in the Liberals bleeding to the Greens, especially in BC. This could tip some seats to the Cons like North Van that otherwise could be expected to stay Liberal.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 01 April 2008 10:02 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
Even if the Cons pick up WV-Sunshine, I think the expectation is that unless they are doing quite well nationally, they'll at best end up with the same BC total seats.

I think that sounds right, because while they could pick up WestVan and NorthVan (it's more conservative than you think), I think the fact that Betty Hinton is retiring in Kamloops-North Thompson makes that seats a possible NDP pickup, along with another seat or two on the Island, and a decent fighting chance at Kingsway and/or Newton-North Delta. Plus, it's about time our friends in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission finally put it over the top.

[ 01 April 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 01 April 2008 10:44 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Lord Palmerston:
These are Turner '84 polling numbers for the Liberals, but their vote is so heavily concentrated in the GTA now (with tons of super-safe seats) that I can't see them dropping anywhere near their '84 seat distribution.


Of course, if they are so concentrated in the GTA, it could mean losing virtually every other seat in the country.

I still say the first step towards having a truly progressive government in Canada is the utter destruction of the Liberal Party as a viable elctoral force.


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 02 April 2008 06:08 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe the Liberals need to change their name to The Toronto Party since it's becoming increasingly difficult for them to elect anyone outside of the GTA.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 02 April 2008 06:22 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:
...I think the fact that Betty Hinton is retiring in Kamloops-North Thompson makes that seats a possible NDP pickup,
I certainly hope so, as this is my riding, and I have been talking up NDP, strategies and truths for awhile now, with people I know across the riding. But whoever the NDP candidate running in this constituency is, they are non-visible and a non-entity in the outlaying areas, at least.

From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 02 April 2008 07:18 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP candidate in Kamloops is Michael Crawford

http://michaelcrawford.ca/

He ran for the NDP in the 2006 election and increased the NDP vote significantly, came in a strong second only losing to the Conservative incumbent (who is retiring) 20,000 to 16,000 votes.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 02 April 2008 07:24 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thank you stockholm, I was living in another city at the time of the last election and had no idea who it was here, as I said pretty much invisible. But now I know, and have his webiste, I will use it and I will be in contact with him.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 02 April 2008 07:26 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:
Mmm ... I think they'll take WestVan-Sunshine Coast back.

Considering the Liberals have lost their MP there and have not nominated a new candidate yet, don't you think Elizabeth May settled a bit cheap? That's a seat the Greens could win if the Liberals and NDP (sorry, Dana) would let them; but of course I'm not serious. Never going to happen.

From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
Uncle John
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posted 02 April 2008 02:32 PM      Profile for Uncle John     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Toronto Party is already taken. It is a group of people opposed to the NDP.
From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 02 April 2008 08:24 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Maybe the Liberals need to change their name to The Toronto Party since it's becoming increasingly difficult for them to elect anyone outside of the GTA.

The Bloc Torontois?


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Marg Bedore
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posted 03 April 2008 04:13 AM      Profile for Marg Bedore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Latest Harris Decima
Cons 32
Libs 30
NDP 13
Bloc 9
Greens 12

From: Kingston | Registered: Jul 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 03 April 2008 05:04 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Has anyone ever noticed that the only time "Marg Bedore" ever posts on babble is when he/she digs up a poll result that makes the NDP look bad. Never a single post on any other topic. Last week, the same Decima poll had the NDP at 17% - where was "Marg Bedore"??
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 03 April 2008 07:14 AM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Who cares? You have a habit of posting polls which make the Liberals and Greens look bad and the NDP look good. I have a habit of pointing out numbers which make the Greens look good. Between all of the pessimists, optimists and partisans, we all get all the polling numbers we ever need.

I'm going to ignore that "other" slight.

Anywho, here's the full breakdown for the Decima poll:

National:
Party // 1 week // 3 week avg
CPC // 32% // 31%
LIB // 30% // 31%
NDP // 13% // 15%
GRN // 12% // 10%
BLQ // 9% // 10%

Quebec:
Party // 1 week // 3 week avg
BLQ // 37% // 39%
LIB // 21% // 23%
CPC // 21% // 18%
NDP // 9% // 9%
GRN // 10% // 7%

Ontario:
Party // 1 week // 3 week avg
LIB // 38% // 40%
CPC // 33% // 32%
NDP // 10% // 14%
GRN // 15% // 12%

BC (3 week avg):
CPC 33%
LIB 26%
NDP 22%
GRN 15%

Atlantic Canada (3 week avg):
LIB 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 21%
GRN 6%


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 03 April 2008 07:41 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Who cares? You have a habit of posting polls which make the Liberals and Greens look bad and the NDP look good. I have a habit of pointing out numbers which make the Greens look good. Between all of the pessimists, optimists and partisans, we all get all the polling numbers we ever need.

This is true, but you and I (to our credit) also frequently post on many, many other topics. I've probably had more postings about Robert Mugabe lately than I have about any polling numbers. But, I'll bet that if someone hunted down every single posting that "Marg Bedore" has ever had since joining babble - you'd be hard-pressed to find a single solitary one that wasn't gloating about a bad poll for the NDP. Nothing on any other topic at all.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 03 April 2008 07:42 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Greeny:
Atlantic Canada (3 week avg):
LIB 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 21%
GRN 6%

It's a surprise to me to see the CPC as high as 33% in Atlantic Canada, because they've treated this territory like dirt (I live in Quebec on the Gulf, right next door to Atlantic Canada). I thought by now Danny William's message to vote ABC ("Anybody But Conservative") would have sunk in.


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 03 April 2008 07:45 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Never under-estimate how many people in Atlantic Canada just automatically vote the way their grandparents and great grandparents did - or do the old Catholic=Liberal, Protestant=Tory formula to decide who to vote for.

What people like that personally think about the performance of the current federal parties is irrelevant.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Centrist
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posted 03 April 2008 09:25 AM      Profile for Centrist     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Compare the 3 week average for Harris Decima in Quebec and the CROP poll (with its 1,000 sample size) recently released:

BLQ: 39%/30%
LIB: 23%/20%
CPC: 18%/29%
NDP: 9%/15%

There's a huge gap with those H/D numbers.


From: BC | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 03 April 2008 09:31 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, at least the Green Party %'s are consistent.
From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 04 April 2008 12:50 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There is another thread going about the Decima poll in which I suggested people (I think Remind in particular) to look at the long term trend to determine what is actually happening rather than week to week numbers. Rolling averages (such as Decima's) over the long run are even better.

One thing that cannot be denied is that NDP is in a pronounced downward trend, and the Green Party in a pronounced upward trend since the last federal election until now. Numbers are hard to imagine, so just look at the trend lines of all the major pollsters (that don't poll exclusively on the internet).

Ipsos

SES Nanos

Decima

Strategic Counsel

This concerns me so far in that the NDP frame will certainly include a "stop Harper" aspect, but the polling numbers and trends (outside of Quebec) indicate the only party that can do that is the Liberals. Anecdotally, I also think people are tiring of the minority parliament. These are not good signs for New Democrats.

For the Greens, sadly (because I don't like or identify with the party or its Leader) the only way their vote will head is us up. In the last Ontario provincial election, where no one knew who the hell the leader of the Green Party was, that party doubled it's support to 8 percent flat. The federal party should be comforted knowing that 8 percent is now their base in Ontario. They may even win a seat, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, if they can run the same candidate again, pump in money, and maintain the organization. Also, with such little support it is hard to go down (no insult intended).

Either way sadly, the NDP is in trouble and heading down, and the Green Party is inevitably heading up. The long term polling trends of all the major pollsters reaffirm this.

It's time for NDP partisans, but especially the party elite (hello?), to accept this 'new reality' and come up with a different strategy to attract supporters than whatever they have doing up until now.

I would personally try to get non-voters to vote and attract marginal Conservative voters who will never vote Liberal. The latter group is small, maybe 5-7 percent overall, and are non-ideological soft Conservatives who are concerned about issues like democratic accountability, ethics, sovereingty and arctic sovereignty in particular, and personal tax cuts instead of corporate tax cuts. If the party can draw from these pools...the numbers could move towards 33 Liberal, 30 Conservative, 22 NDP (optimistic) and 10 Green and some undecideds. This is probably the best possible outcome in the near term (next election).

Either way folks...accept the new, often unpleasant, reality and adapt.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 04 April 2008 03:07 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I would personally try to get non-voters to vote and attract marginal Conservative voters who will never vote Liberal.

Isn't that interesting...sounds like exactly what partisan Liberals would want the NDP to do that would suit the Liberals and be suicidal for the NDP.

Maybe you can get the Green Party to drink cyanide laced Kool-Aid all to help the Liberals. The NDP won't be taken in.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 04 April 2008 09:50 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Isn't it interesting the NDP doesn't want to change strategies despite declining in the polls for two years?

Also, my suggestion would not require a revamp in policy - just emphasizing some over others - you know to not just curry favour with supporters, but to actually get new ones!

Breathtaking that a new, logical, suggestion is greeted with such hostility. But it may explain a lot.

Brother...the Liberals don't need my help. They are whipping our asses just fine without me.

Keep up the good work.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 04 April 2008 09:55 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If you think that your party (the Liberals) are doing so well these days - why are they so scared to have an election??? Obviously, the Liberal braintrust believes that catastrophic (for Liberals) Angus Reid poll and they don't believe the Decima poll.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 04 April 2008 10:08 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
If you think that your party (the Liberals) are doing so well these days - why are they so scared to have an election??? Obviously, the Liberal braintrust believes that catastrophic (for Liberals) Angus Reid poll and they don't believe the Decima poll.

First. The Liberals are closer to the Conservatives than election day in most polls. This despite Dion's stellar performance. The shock of how bad he is will eventually wear off. Like a stock that hits bottom, he and the Liberals will too and then proceed to rise. After millions in anti-Dion ads and a year and a half with the current leader, the only people who would vote Liberal now ARE their base.

Second. Angus Reid polls exclusively online, and are consistently producing outlier polls. They have not shown they are credible in the year or two they have been allowed to poll, and won't be taken seriously until they develop a formula to properly weight their sample. Ipsos does huge online panels (like out of 200,000 panelists) and produce consistently more reliable results when they do post results from their online polls.

Trust me, I am a partisan New Democrat who wants to see Jack as PM. But something has to change dramatically to make any gains in the next election, and position the party to implement a post-election strategy that will consolidate those gains and help grow support before the next campaign even begins.

I'm just being honest, sharing some insights, and offering a suggestion to help our party without diluting its ideology and policy.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 04 April 2008 10:16 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Angus Reid polls exclusively online, and are consistently producing outlier polls.

Actually they were almost dead-on accurate in forecasting the recent Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan elections - and they were off just a bit in Ontario (but some telephone polls were off by more). They didn't do so well in the Alberta election - but again, some phone polls also were off by a lot.

There is no evidence at all that on-line polls are any less accurate and in fact in the US and the UK they are increasingly becoming the norm.

quote:
I'm just being honest, sharing some insights, and offering a suggestion to help our party without diluting its ideology and policy.

I call it being DIShonest and the only party you are trying to "help" is the Liberal party.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 04 April 2008 10:50 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

I call it being DIShonest and the only party you are trying to "help" is the Liberal party.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


Wow. Stunning. I mean really baffling. As a New Democrat are you just terrified of changing a strategy, or broadening the support base?

What the hell do you think the party can do to win the Liberal votes that it hasn't already won? Maybe introducing another motion of non-confidence will do it? Wait for Dion to get worse and another $2 million in anti-Dion ads?

Scandals, 2 years of Harper Gov't, Dion, alliances with the Greenies, worsening economy, abstentions...if they ain't left the Liberals yet my friend, they ain't gonna leave before the next election.

The strategy being employed, whatever it is, has failed. The Liberals have survived. Dion is surviving. It's hard to believe, I know, but he is. Time to find a new way to grow before the next election comes so that the party can make some gains. Not holds. Not losses.

I also fail to see how, if I was a Liberal, my advice to the NDP would help the Libs. You would have to assume that whatever strategy the NDP is employing is having a negative effect on the fortunes of the Liberals and changing it would help them. Changing it wouldn't help the Libs because the strategy isn't hurting them.

Stunning.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 05 April 2008 12:07 AM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

There is no evidence at all that on-line polls are any less accurate and in fact in the US and the UK they are increasingly becoming the norm.

[ 04 April 2008: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


Actually, there is. For starters, internet polls are not random sample polls. You have to visit a particular site or sign up to a panel to participate. Respondent are often lured with prizes or money much like a focus group. The "self-select" aspect of these polls is troublesome to the methodology, as random sampling has been a hallmark of the polling industry since its founding and many models rely on the randomness of the sample.

The way around this for online polls is the weighting of respondents. Are greens more likely to self-select than Conservatives? If so, then maybe every Green respondent is worth 1.3 Conservaive respnse. You can see it gets complicated quickly, and frankly the field is still in its infancy.

Ipsos, the largest polling firm in the world, is the industry leader and has a self-select panel in Canada alone that is over 200,000 members. This is as good as online polling gets, and they generally only publish their phone polls so as to protect their reputation. Angus Reid on the other hand can do nothing BUT online polls due a legal agreement it has with Ipsos.

To your second point, online polling is becoming the norm because it is cheap. No interviewers, phone lines, etc. They don't even need a large office. Just a web template and a statistician.

Given the above, and more info I am choosing not to share, I do not believe that online polls are just as accurate as traditional polls that use in person or phone interviews. That is why I do not (yet) take Angus Reid seriously. Though I will concede their consistency is improving and will continue to do so for a while.

[ 05 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 05 April 2008 06:22 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I also fail to see how, if I was a Liberal, my advice to the NDP would help the Libs.

Do you think I was born yesterday??? Who but a Liberal would give advice to the NDP along the lines of "don't do anything to try to get people of thinking of voting Liberal to vote NDP. Instead try to get non-voters and core Conservative supporters to vote NDP".

Maybe I should go into a Liberal-friendly website and tell everyone that I was a dyed in the wool Liberal and then start dispensing helpful "advice" like "try to outflank the Conservatives on the far right and concede the entire progressive side of the Canadian political spectrum to the NDP."

I don't have any problem with Liberal supporters openly identifying themselves as such and telling us why they think their party ought to be considered - or even offering strategic advice to their party etc...But if you are a Liberal - why not be open about it instead of using the oldest trick in the book of posing as a supporter or a party and then offering totally destructive "advice" and gloating about any scrap of bad news you can find.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 05 April 2008 06:40 AM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

I don't have any problem with Liberal supporters openly identifying themselves as such and telling us why they think their party ought to be considered - or even offering strategic advice to their party etc...But if you are a Liberal - why not be open about it instead of using the oldest trick in the book of posing as a supporter or a party and then offering totally destructive "advice" and gloating about any scrap of bad news you can find.


You know nothing about me, and evidently less about public opinion and politics.

You are a moron who interprets sound, principled, and learned advice about how the NDP can get more votes as "destructive" to that party.

I pray you are not anywhere near, in either time or space, to a position of power in the NDP.

[ 05 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 05 April 2008 07:07 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I've been participating in political blogs long enough to know that people who CLAIM to be NDPers, but then gloatingly and sneeringly post phrases like...


quote:
Either way folks...accept the new, often unpleasant, reality and adapt.

or

quote:
The strategy being employed, whatever it is, has failed. The Liberals have survived. Dion is surviving. It's hard to believe, I know, but he is.
(I wonder why then there are these endless conspiracies by Liberals to dump him and why the Liberals are so PETRIFIED of an election??)
are not actually NDP supporters - they are typically supporters of other parties who are trying to be demoralizing "agent provocateurs".

[ 05 April 2008: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 05 April 2008 08:27 AM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So what you're saying is that I disagree with you and thus I must be spy, and that there is no way for me to convince you that I am not a spy outside of changing my language pattern?

Why don't you try to evaluate my points instead of deconstructing my language patterns in search of a sinister motive?

[ 05 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 05 April 2008 08:58 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If I have misidentified you as a Liberal troll, I apologize. But I think that if you are actually here to make CONstructive (as opposed to DEstructive) criticism of the NDP's strategy, you might get a lot further if you didn't put it forth in such a negative, gloating tone. Quite frankly, when I read your earlier posts I had this image of you dancing a little jig of joy every time a poll came out that had the NDP down a few points - and probably being very glum feeling foiled when other polls show a different picture.

Forgive me for having a divining rod when it comes to Liberal sock-puppets. But, we have had other "agents provocateurs" here over the years who would start every posting with some fiction about being an NDP supporter - followed by a bunch of drivel that looked like it was cut and pasted from a blog run by some Liberal hack (hello Jason Cherniak) - You know the type I mean - "I used to be a dyed in the wool NDP supporter (and in a past life i was Mary Queen of Scots) - but then I was horrified when Jack Layton actually made a single solitary criticism of Paul Martin and now I can never forgive the NDP for having committed the unpardonable sin of giving Liberal/NDP swing voters - a reason to vote NDP and not Liberal". (sic.)

Honestly, if these people are on the Liberal payroll to do this stuff - the Liberals are really wasting what little money they have.


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 05 April 2008 09:38 AM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That's fairplay. Thanks for the clarification.

I understand what you mean. A somewhat related hobby I have is reading the comments section under CTV news stories. There is no question those people are on someone's payroll.

Moving forward, I will try to be more aware of the tone of my postings and also keep in mind that you are not opposed to vigorous debate.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 05 April 2008 08:57 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Years and years ago, George Gallup was the gold standard in public opinion research.

Gallup's people went door to door to ask people about issues / parties / products. (That's part of the reason Gallup tended to cluster his samples - they were going door to door.)

Then some bright young up&comer at another polling company had a bright idea. "Let's use the phone!"

At first, the polls conducted by phone had some problems - not least the fact that phone ownership was not evenly distributed across demographics.

But after some adjustments (ie, correcting for sample demographics), turned out that polling over the phone worked just fine - and today it has become the norm.

But I'm sure there was some pissed-off partisan whiner back then trying to discredit polling over the phone because he didn't like the results.

Telephone surveys are already having problems of self-selecting samples due to increasing numbers of contacts who decline to answer - not to mention the thousands who don't even bother to answer the phone when the caller ID says "XYZ Public Opinion."


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
David Young
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posted 06 April 2008 04:29 AM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I have only ever been contacted once by a polling company (Ipsos-Reid I believe), who wanted my opinion about how I thought the government was doing (2001).

I lied through my teeth!

I said that the Liberals were doing a fantastic job, etc.

Seeing the recent jump in support for the 'so-called' Greens makes me wonder if others are doing the same thing!


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 06 April 2008 05:27 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm doing the Angus Reid surveys by e-mail. It's actually kind of neat. When I see a new poll result come out, I think, "Hey, I did that one!" Just happened recently, actually.

I tell the truth on them. I think they're kind of fun.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
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posted 06 April 2008 06:33 AM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
One thing that cannot be denied is that NDP is in a pronounced downward trend, and the Green Party in a pronounced upward trend since the last federal election until now. Numbers are hard to imagine, so just look at the trend lines of all the major pollsters (that don't poll exclusively on the internet).

Not sure if you understand statistical significance. None of these indicate a pronounced downward trend for the NDP in the past year, except perhaps SES Nanos which might also be considered to show a recovery to the levels in the last election. People will point to the polls they like.

quote:
Either way sadly, the NDP is in trouble and heading down, and the Green Party is inevitably heading up. The long term polling trends of all the major pollsters reaffirm this.

The long term SES Nanos trend is up for the NDP. The only inevitable things are death and taxes.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 06 April 2008 06:34 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Policywonk:

The long term SES Nanos trend is up for the NDP. The only inevitable things are death and taxes.


Speaking of significance, on what information do make the above statement? When I argued that the NDP was in a "pronounced downward trend" it was based on the fact that all four charts I provided as a reference show the NDP losing support over the last two years.

Nanos' graph is a little different from the others in that it goes all the way back to 2001. That is why there is a nice upward trend for the NDP. The period I was concerned about, and was referring to, is the immediate pre-election period 2006 until today. In this time frame, all four graphs show this downward trend, with Nanos showing a nice upward trend in the last quarter.

I hope Nanos is showing the start of a shift in momentum, but my initial posting was made in the fear that the NDP is still heading down or flat, from the 17 to the low 20 percent range in the six months after the election to the 12 to 15 percent range we see today in many polls.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
The Wizard of Socialism
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posted 06 April 2008 06:55 PM      Profile for The Wizard of Socialism   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
What's that? I can't hear you over the din of our thirty Members of Parliament debating social reforms like medicare that benefit all Canadians. You'll have to manufacture a little more dissent if you want to be noticed. Or we can step into the so-called green caucus room. It's pretty quiet in there, what with it being empty and all.

[ 06 April 2008: Message edited by: The Wizard of Socialism ]


From: A Proud Canadian! | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 06 April 2008 07:20 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

Or we can step into the so-called green caucus room. It's pretty quiet in there, what with it being empty and all.


Shouldn't that be "the so-called green so-called caucus room"?


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Policywonk
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posted 06 April 2008 07:48 PM      Profile for Policywonk     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Speaking of significance, on what information do make the above statement? When I argued that the NDP was in a "pronounced downward trend" it was based on the fact that all four charts I provided as a reference show the NDP losing support over the last two years.

Trend analysis is not as simple as you seem to think. You could also say that the NDP lost support after the election but has held steady over the past year. You will have a point when the NDP polls consistently below 10 percent and the Green Party polls consistently above 10 percent (which it doesn't do yet).

As for the Greens, I wonder what effect Elizabeth May's ill-advised association with the Sea Shepard Society will have on her personal support and that of the Green Party.

Elizabeth May resigns from Sea Shephard advisory board


From: Edmonton | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 April 2008 07:57 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Ever since Ellie May decided to seek a seat in Nova Scotia she has been shedding inconvenient views she had on some environmental issues as fast as Salome doing a dance of the seven veils. She and the Green Party used to be very anti-seal hunt - until she realized that might not go over too well in rural Nova Scotia. She also used to be in favour of wind energy - until Anne Murray and few other wealthy cottagers decided that wind turbines were bad for their property values and then - boom - suddenly the leader of the so-called green party was there speaking out AGAINST wind energy!

Can there be anyone in Canadian politics today with less integrity than Elizabeth May???


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 06 April 2008 07:58 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Policywonk:
As for the Greens, I wonder what effect Elizabeth May's ill-advised association with the Sea Shepard Society will have on her personal support and that of the Green Party.

Elizabeth May resigns from Sea Shephard advisory board


She actually only decided to resign *in the middle of the interview*.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 06 April 2008 10:16 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by The Wizard of Socialism:
What's that? I can't hear you over the din of our thirty Members of Parliament debating social reforms like medicare that benefit all Canadians. You'll have to manufacture a little more dissent if you want to be noticed. Or we can step into the so-called green caucus room. It's pretty quiet in there, what with it being empty and all.

[ 06 April 2008: Message edited by: The Wizard of Socialism ]


We have the best MP's and the best staff on the Hill. Wouldn't it be great if after the next election we had 50 members and their staff in on the debate? Think we'll get there if the election is this spring?

I suppose I am trying to manufacture (a little) dissent, though I've never thought of it that way.

I'm frustrated at the fact that despite Dion, May, May and Dion together, and no Conservative increase in support that my party is still declining in polls since the last election.

I'm also trying to understand why others reject the argument that the party is in a period of gradual decline in popular support since the last election. The graphs I cited and posted links to really do illustrate a 5-7 point drop over two years. This is not good news, but is it really debatable?

I'm not trying to cause a mutiny, but simply raise some awareness to what I see as an urgent problem. Potential support is built, or at least primed, during the time between elections. If voters are primed for a switch and the world is as it should be then great, but only the NDP braintrust know that through their polling and research. However, I can say without that info, that this does not appear to be the case.

There is no denying that campaigns have an impact, but the table has to be set before dinner is served. I'm just concerned that we can't find the silverware.


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
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posted 07 April 2008 04:13 AM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by RedRover:
I'm frustrated at the fact that despite Dion, May, May and Dion together, and no Conservative increase in support that my party is still declining in polls since the last election.

I'm also trying to understand why others reject the argument that the party is in a period of gradual decline in popular support since the last election. The graphs I cited and posted links to really do illustrate a 5-7 point drop over two years. This is not good news, but is it really debatable?

I'm not trying to cause a mutiny, but simply raise some awareness to what I see as an urgent problem. Potential support is built, or at least primed, during the time between elections. If voters are primed for a switch and the world is as it should be then great, but only the NDP braintrust know that through their polling and research. However, I can say without that info, that this does not appear to be the case.

There is no denying that campaigns have an impact, but the table has to be set before dinner is served. I'm just concerned that we can't find the silverware.


Red Rover, you are letting yourself get concerned about horse-race numbers in tiny national samples between elections. They are trailing indicators, and vary widely depending on whether the leader's name is included in the question, the medium of conducting the poll (phone or online), and as was pointed out in another thread awhile back, how much expense the polling firm is prepared to invest in getting a properly representative sample given that core urban folks don't answer the phone anymore (and the younger ones only use cellphones).

Layton is running well in the polls, the party is well-organized and well-financed. It has increased its vote base in the last two elections, has young people showing up at meetings (BIG change from 1993, believe me), and people contesting nominations in ridings many think we should not win. The quality of candidates we're attracting in our next-tier seats is truly impressive if you take a look, too, and our current Caucus body-for-body is the strongest in the House (although the Bloc caucus is also strong), a fact that was recently recognized by Maclean's. We're relevant in Quebec for the first time since Phil Edmonston got elected in the by-election caused by Richard Grisé resigning after being charged, and we're at a pretty optimum point in the political cycle in most provinces.

You have been reading the press gallery too much, who (probably because they have to write about all those polls) seem to believe that the objective of a party's daily tactics and between-election strategy is to move the horse-race numbers now, and that the horse-race numbers now are somehow predictive of the outcome of a general election later. They're not. The old war-horses around here have ridden these things out before. Those of us around that long are surveying the landscape and thinking that this is the best set of conditions in a good long time.

What part of the country are you writing from, out of interest?

[ 07 April 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 07 April 2008 04:22 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I'm frustrated at the fact that despite Dion, May, May and Dion together, and no Conservative increase in support that my party is still declining in polls since the last election.

I'm also trying to understand why others reject the argument that the party is in a period of gradual decline in popular support since the last election. The graphs I cited and posted links to really do illustrate a 5-7 point drop over two years. This is not good news, but is it really debatable?


There are several of us who share the sense that more could be hped for given the circumstances, and maybe more expected even.

But you just haven's made the case for an actual drop. There certainly is no 5-7 point drop in the 2 year trend line. That would be the bottom folling out. But you'd have to go to high and low points to get that. That's not looking at trend lines.

Nor is there a continued rise in Green support- after it finished bumping up a bit a year and a half ago for whatever reasons.

Similarly, you might be able to argue that the NDP trend lin since the election is a couple points lower [5-7 is out of the question], but the NDP ahs had the same flat as everyone eles for that 1 and half years since things settled down.

The point about not cashing in on an opportunity doesn't require a supporting argument that the NDP is dropping- which people do not find credible.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Fidel
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posted 07 April 2008 09:13 AM      Profile for Fidel     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There's a democratic deficit in this country with an appointed old boys' club in Ottawa.

And then there's our overall malaise across Canada known as electoral dysfunction, or simply E.D. The good news is there is a cure for ED. But we have to keep the pressure on our two oldest political parties, in power and sharing power for the last 140 years in a row, if we want to change things. If things don't change, future Canadians will enjoy another 140 years in a row of the same-old same-old.


From: Viva La Revolución | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 07 April 2008 07:18 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by RedRover:

Wouldn't it be great if after the next election we had 50 members and their staff in on the debate?



No. That would be good.

Great would be 155 New Democrat MPs.

Why is it so many on the left think it is "impure" to aspire to government?

Letting the Liberals pretend to be progressive is a strategy for losers.


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
The Wizard of Socialism
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posted 07 April 2008 07:20 PM      Profile for The Wizard of Socialism   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Hey Malcolm - thanks for the props on my supercollider comment. It's good to see my humour isn't entirely wasted on the mob. But seriously, what's the APR stand for? The only place I see that is on loan applications.
From: A Proud Canadian! | Registered: Jul 2002  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 07 April 2008 10:03 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:

Red Rover, you are letting yourself get concerned about horse-race numbers in tiny national samples between elections.

...

What part of the country are you writing from, out of interest?

[ 07 April 2008: Message edited by: ottawaobserver ]


I'm from Southwestern Ontario originally. The horserace aspect is what the media plays up day to day, but frankly I'm more worried what I see as a gradual decline. I think the trend I see is far more troublesome than where the party stands today, in a given week, or even a given quarter.

I think we are probably at a standstill in the decline vs. no decline debate, so let's leave that for now. I think what I would feel more comfortable seeing in the future is a more positive,gradual swing, upwards over the next months to really give me confidence that a solid campaign has some momentum to build upon.

It's too bad more pollsters don't report momentum scores on a regular basis. I see them around, but they are hardly a staple and are quite good at predicting where ballot preference will go moving forward.

[ 07 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged
RedRover
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posted 07 April 2008 10:12 PM      Profile for RedRover     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Malcolm French, APR:


No. That would be good.

Great would be 155 New Democrat MPs.

Why is it so many on the left think it is "impure" to aspire to government?

Letting the Liberals pretend to be progressive is a strategy for losers.



Oh Malcolm...I completely agree, but realistically I don't see 155 seats materializing in the next election.

The goal in my mind, if not others, is certainly to govern and to do so with Jack Layton as the Leader. However, I am sure everyone here knows the NDP is unlikely to go from 30 seats to 155 in one election, and especially if it comes in the next 6 months.

I simply threw out 50 as a realistic goal for a spring or fall election this year. If the people are primed for a change, which wouldn't be obvious in most publicly released polls, then the number could increase if circumstances in a campaign allow.

I was just trying to be realistic about a very near term election outcome.

[ 07 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]

[ 08 April 2008: Message edited by: RedRover ]


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2006  |  IP: Logged

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