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Author Topic: Fed NDP lessons from ONDP election
V. Jara
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posted 11 October 2007 02:20 PM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1) Peter Ferreira, John Rafferty, Paul Ferreira are all A-list poaches.

2) The NDP has a serious fight on its hands in Hamilton Mountain. If the NDP holds Parkdale High-Park against Kennedy then it will probably hold it forever. London-Fanshawe and Ottawa Centre also appear vulnerable.

3) The North (4 seats) + Welland, Beaches East-York, Guelph, Oshawa and on a sunny day York South-Weston and Davenport are the only places where the NDP could win a 1 on 1 race. Everything else requires 3-way splits or star candidates. So in a sucessful campaign the NDP is hoping for a gain of 7/107 seats. Note to Jack, start recruiting star candidates or be prepared to make very short tours.

4) Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley is in play with a four-way split (Bill Casey announced on e-day that he would run as an independent). It's time to get some NDP star candidates in Nova Scotia!

5) Sid Ryan can't win an election

Are there any other lessons to be had?


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 11 October 2007 03:23 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
With Bill Casey running as an independent in North Nova, our vote share will dive, even if we come in second. Casey will win easily.
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Charles
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posted 11 October 2007 04:56 PM      Profile for Charles   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm not sure I'd agree with #2. Totally different personalities, leaders, splits, local dynamics, issues around incumbancy, etc etc.

Ottawa Centre for example with an incumbant NDP MP, won twice by the party, with the hapless Dion as Liberal leader, (ie. not as the incumbant Premier on the way to a landslide election win), and jack instead of Howard as NDP leader (sorry Howard fans) makes for an entirely different situation than Will Murray trying to snatch a Liberal-held seat in the wake of a landslide. I don't think we can read much of anything into the ON results vis a vis the federal campaign. Too many variables.


From: Halifax, NS | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
candle
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posted 11 October 2007 05:12 PM      Profile for candle     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:

3) The North (4 seats) + Welland, Beaches East-York, Guelph, Oshawa and on a sunny day York South-Weston and Davenport are the only places where the NDP could win a 1 on 1 race. Everything else requires 3-way splits or star candidates. So in a sucessful campaign the NDP is hoping for a gain of 7/107 seats. Note to Jack, start recruiting star candidates or be prepared to make very short tours.

Guelph??????? What dreamland are you in.
Oshawa would require a split -
Welland requires a star candidate (Kormos/Swart)
I think Trinity is a much better 1 on 1 seat than YSW or Davenport.


From: Ontario | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
ocsi
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posted 11 October 2007 05:13 PM      Profile for ocsi     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Charles wrote:

quote:
Too many variables.

Yes, but the NDP should be careful not to dismiss Dion as "hapless," or whatever. Remember that Chretien was called "yesterday's man" when he won the Liberal leadership after Turner resigned.


From: somewhere over the rainbow | Registered: Jan 2007  |  IP: Logged
babblerwannabe
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posted 11 October 2007 06:12 PM      Profile for babblerwannabe     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Paul Ferreira all the way.
From: toronto | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Malcolm
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posted 11 October 2007 09:59 PM      Profile for Malcolm   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"Hapless" may not be the best word.

I occasionally refer to the Liberal leader as "Dr. Donothing" in recognition of his record as Environment Minister.


From: Regina, SK | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 12 October 2007 05:00 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP has a star candidate in Guelph and already holds Trinity-Spadina.
From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Scarberian
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posted 12 October 2007 08:33 AM      Profile for Scarberian     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The greatest potential for growth is in the North of the province, and the party should be putting some resources there. Churchill, right next store, is also very winable and many of the same issues and policies would also apply there.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jul 2007  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 12 October 2007 10:49 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It wonder if Mohamed Boudjenane would run federally, and if the NDP could find a suitable and winnable riding for him.

His background is more in Ontario politics, since he covered it for a decade on TFO, and before that was political staff / EA for NDP ministers. He lost the NDP nomination for Parkdale - High Park to Cheri DiNovo prior to her winning the by-election, then ran in this past election in Etobicoke North, a tough riding for the NDP, but with a demographic where the NDP should be trying to build).

But he'd be great federally, with his complete fluency in both French and English (and presumably Arabic), and background in human rights, political broadcasting, and policy.

[ 12 October 2007: Message edited by: Albireo ]


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V. Jara
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posted 14 October 2007 12:09 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't know how winnable it would be, but it would be interesting to run Mohamed in Missisauga-Streetsville. Wajid Khan may run again, although this time for the conservatives, the Liberal riding association was suspended by Elections Canada for financial reasons (do they have any money at all?), and the demographics are in some ways friendlier to Mohamed than Etobicoke North. The NDP could also probably get away with calling Mohamed a star candidate and with votes defecting left and right I expect the NDP could make some decent gains.

The 2006 riding results were:

LIB Wajid Khan 45.9% 23,913
CON Raminder Gill 34.8% 18,121
NDP James Caron 13.3% 6,929
GRN Otto Casanova 4.5% 2,334


From: - | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 October 2007 05:36 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
What makes you think that Mississauga-Streetsville has friendlier NDP demographics than Etobicoke North. I thought Etob. North was one of the poorest and most Muslim ridings in the province... and federally the Liberal MP is a social conservative WASP Roy Cullen with a very low profile.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 14 October 2007 06:07 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does anyone know whether Davenport is trying to get Ferreira to run federally? I'm just about to send off an e-mail to him now, encouraging him to run.

Ruprecht got something like 58% support in 2003, but this year he got 41%! That's a damn strong campaign. And if the election is called next month or even sometime in 2008, he now has name recognition in this riding among the 36% of people here who voted for him. And of course he has a ton of signs. It would be a shame for them to go to waste.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
V. Jara
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posted 14 October 2007 07:00 AM      Profile for V. Jara     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I was using a reverse logic, that being that with equal numbers of Arabs and a larger non-minority population, the NDP might do better there. Weak logic I admit, but the more important point remains, that barring some major shift, the NDP is simply not in the race in Etobicoke North.

The NDP can at least make a case for being a contedner in Khan's riding what with past vote totals and the voting shifts that are bound to take place. It is also potentially a high interest campaign for the local media as it will involve a lot of drama over betrayal, financial shenangians, nominations, ethnic representation, etc.

Otherwise, what would you suggest for a "winnable" riding that Mohamed could be enticed to run in?


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janfromthebruce
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posted 14 October 2007 07:07 AM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Michelle:
And of course he has a ton of signs. It would be a shame for them to go to waste.

A slight problem, they are provincial signs which are different than federal signs. They have the provincial logo on them, don't they?


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
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posted 14 October 2007 07:14 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh, do they? I thought they just said "NDP" and that the feds and provincial use the same colours. I didn't look at them closely, though. Still, I don't see why they couldn't recycle the signs, people likely would notice. I saw lots of people putting out old municipal Olivia signs during her federal run, and I don't think they were even the right colour!

[ 14 October 2007: Message edited by: Michelle ]


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 October 2007 07:59 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Otherwise, what would you suggest for a "winnable" riding that Mohamed could be enticed to run in?

I have a novel idea...maybe Mohammed wants to move to Montreal and run for the NDP in one of the ridings there that has a very large allophone/north African population and be part of the Mulcair-inspired wave. Mohamed is Moroccan and French is his mother tongue - I think that the problem in the GTA is that all the winnable NDP seats are kinda sewn up - but in Montreal there could be all kinds of potentially low hanging fruit.

I should add that the NDP has never won a seat anywhere in Mississauga at any level in its history. In contrast, the northern part of Etobicoke was an NDP stronghold from 1971 to 1995.

[ 14 October 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
adma
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posted 14 October 2007 09:07 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by V. Jara:
I don't know how winnable it would be, but it would be interesting to run Mohamed in Missisauga-Streetsville. Wajid Khan may run again, although this time for the conservatives, the Liberal riding association was suspended by Elections Canada for financial reasons (do they have any money at all?), and the demographics are in some ways friendlier to Mohamed than Etobicoke North. The NDP could also probably get away with calling Mohamed a star candidate and with votes defecting left and right I expect the NDP could make some decent gains.

The 2006 riding results were:

LIB Wajid Khan 45.9% 23,913
CON Raminder Gill 34.8% 18,121
NDP James Caron 13.3% 6,929
GRN Otto Casanova 4.5% 2,334


Though, don't be fooled by that high-for-Mississauga-in-2006 NDP result. My feeling is that James Caron artificially benefited from being the top "white Euro" contender.

Rather obviously, Mohamed B. won't have that same, er, "advantage"...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 14 October 2007 09:10 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yup, reminds me of how in the 1997 federal election Jim Jones won Markham for the PCs - rumour has it that the main reason he won was that he was the only candidate on the ballot who was white.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
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posted 14 October 2007 06:05 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I heard that Jim Jones actually had a huge cult following.
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adma
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posted 14 October 2007 06:23 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Yup, reminds me of how in the 1997 federal election Jim Jones won Markham for the PCs - rumour has it that the main reason he won was that he was the only candidate on the ballot who was white.

Well, a little more complicated still: after all, that was Jag Bhaduria's seat, and Jag was running as an independent after being tossed out of the Liberal caucus. So it wasn't just a matter of Jim Jones being white, it's also that "non-white + Liberal" was stigmatized in this particular seat in this particular year--and PC was practically a palatably "Liberal" enough alternative...

[ 14 October 2007: Message edited by: adma ]


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged

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