babble home
rabble.ca - news for the rest of us
today's active topics


  
FAQ | Forum Home
  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» babble   » current events   » canadian politics   » Election Prediction Project revisited

Email this thread to someone!    
Author Topic: Election Prediction Project revisited
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 06 May 2007 07:17 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
...since the other thread closed for length ages ago, I thought I might like to remind everyone that Parkdale-High Park is now shown as Too Close rather than Liberal.

Thank you.


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6874

posted 06 May 2007 08:26 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd call it Liberal. *ducks*
From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 07 May 2007 03:51 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, it *had* been called as Liberal; which was a talking point here because EPP doesn't/shouldn't usually give sitting incumbent seats to the opposition this early the game, Milton Chan's a Grit flunky, etc. So now that it's switched to "too close" might be saying something...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 07 May 2007 04:59 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe it says that Milton Chan reads babble and is sensitive to accusations of his site being biased.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
hatman
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12839

posted 07 May 2007 07:37 PM      Profile for hatman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Unless the NDP is up over 20% in the polls, Kennedy will win. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.
From: Ottawa South | Registered: Jul 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 01 March 2008 04:57 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If anyone's been keeping up with EPP, I'd certainly like to know the identity of whomever's posting under the pseudonyms "I'm Always Right", "Quick Draw", "Doug the Slug", "Peg Leg Pete", and maybe one or two others...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
spincycle
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14767

posted 01 March 2008 06:16 PM      Profile for spincycle     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by adma:
...since the other thread closed for length ages ago, I thought I might like to remind everyone that Parkdale-High Park is now shown as Too Close rather than Liberal.

Maybe something to do with the LPC's treatment of female candidates in Don Valley-West? Bulte stood down so the 'man who would be leader' would have a free ride in P-HP. Now she and Deborah Coyne have seen their hopes dashed as the LPC paves the way for another favourite son in DV-W.


From: 416 | Registered: Nov 2007  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6640

posted 01 March 2008 06:35 PM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Election Prediction Project? That's so 2003 I see Milton isn't even bothering with the Alberta election.
From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 02 March 2008 05:20 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by spincycle:

Maybe something to do with the LPC's treatment of female candidates in Don Valley-West? Bulte stood down so the 'man who would be leader' would have a free ride in P-HP. Now she and Deborah Coyne have seen their hopes dashed as the LPC paves the way for another favourite son in DV-W.


Note that this thread started way back in May 2007...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 02 March 2008 05:46 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by aka Mycroft:
Election Prediction Project? That's so 2003 I see Milton isn't even bothering with the Alberta election.

Well, Milton hasn't bothered with any election but federal and Ontario in about five years or so. But it's still a useful place for a Friday-morning-quarterbacking buzz--maybe more so than democraticSPACE, in its funny way.

As for the I'm Always Right et al individual, I'm suspecting it's some kind of obnoxiously belligerent Liberal insider slime that's trolling/spamming the place. He's the sort who claims the NDP is "over", yet insists Peggy Nash will defeat Gerard Kennedy regardless (methinks he's got a serious hate-on for Gerard). He's also prone to uttering tedious mantras about inbread[sic] mouth-breathers/rednecks/knuckle-draggers in seats and rural zones presently held by Tories, or even an NDP counterpart to that demo in Hamilton Centre--perhaps it's his convenient trash-talking testosterone alibi for seats where the Liberals are toast, or where (as w/Gerard) they aren't in "his" camp. And now, this individual is taking to multiple entries under various pseudonyms--yeah, like we wouldn't recognize it's the same goof posting...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
aka Mycroft
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6640

posted 02 March 2008 07:13 AM      Profile for aka Mycroft     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by adma:

Well, Milton hasn't bothered with any election but federal and Ontario in about five years or so. But it's still a useful place for a Friday-morning-quarterbacking buzz--maybe more so than democraticSPACE, in its funny way.
.


Yes, party hacks and amateur spin doctors (some anyway) still use the site though this day blogs are preferred. My point is the day when anyone looks at EPP as a serious prognosticating tool has long passed.

[ 02 March 2008: Message edited by: aka Mycroft ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 16 March 2008 09:13 AM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't know if even Milton takes it seriously as a prognosticating tool anymore--he almost certianly knows that democraticSPACE has outclassed him--but he's just happy to keep it going as a armchair-quarterbacking forum. (Though as far as "blogs are preferred" goes, I find that in practice, newer-model prognostication-oriented blogs tend to generate awfully dreary, drudgy "vote for x" or "I went to this debate and bla bla bla" type comments pages.)

Anyway, to return...

Doug The Slug, 08/03/13:For the record, I have nothing to do with anyone else posting opinions on this site.

And notice the similarity of the 08/03/13 Doug The Slug and 08/03/10 Peg Leg Pete entries here.


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 16 March 2008 09:40 AM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Lib hacks are really coming out in full force in Trinity-Spadina as well.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 16 March 2008 01:34 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re "Liberal hacks", I suspect it's singular rather than plural; and rather ineptly transparent at that--let's say, the goof makes Mike Klander look like Mike Pearson. Even the goof's non-Liberal predictions read as inside politicking (cf. the Kennedy-can't-win blab re Parkdale-High Park) or heavy-handed overcompensating trash-talk (check out Niagara West-Glanbrook or Haldimand-Norfolk; it's like those so-called knuckle-dragging rednecks are a metaphor for girl who wouldn't give him the time of day, i.e. a riding, or a Grit candidate in place, which wouldn't give him the
time of day).

Worst case scenario (and I don't want to start *rumours*, mind you--even I don't want to believe it) might be that the clod's a Milton Chan plant in charge of astroturfing EPP--not that EPP (for all its yesteryearness) needed such juicing-up, and it would seem almost like suicidal guilt on Milton's part. A better/ideal case scenario is that it's a Liberal-insider buddy with a bad case of overactive testosterone and underactive brain cells, and even Milton's quietly embarrassed--after all, such bush-league antics are *exactly* the stuff to reinforce the impression that his site's an obsolete, degraded relic of Web 1.0.

Sure, any display of obvious Liberal partisanship on top of Milton Chan's own affiliations might read as "party hackery" within a Babble context; but on the whole, things have balanced out even t/w the present on EPP--obvious Tory and NDP and even Green partisans have all had their say, too, and the tone's been generally civil and Voltairean. What's happening right now is more atypical than typical of the way EPP's operated all this time.


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 25 March 2008 01:05 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And now there's "Curly, Larry and Moe"...

[ 25 March 2008: Message edited by: Lord Palmerston ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 25 March 2008 04:36 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, and I traced one of those CL&M addresses to the St. Catharines Public Library, so that gives a hint as to where he might be posting from (perhaps explains his hoisting the banner for Lastewka, etc).

I speculate there may be a heavy bit of revenge-against-his-critics involved, too--all that aliasing and multi-entering happened after I needled him thusly...

Er, you didn't get my point, I'm Always Right: while they might form a sizeable and winning constituency, ‘inbreed/inbread/inbred bible belt folk’ aren't anything like NWG's vast majority. And yes, this site is about Election Predictioneering, but if you want your predictions to have any authority and grounding upon reality, there's also a finesse involved. There's no finesse in ignoring my, or Bear & Ape's, or whomever's pertinent points on behalf of convenient heavy-handed landslide predictions based upon heavy-handed demographic readings couched in heavy-handed mantras about ‘inbre(a)(e)d bible belt’, ‘rednecks’, ‘hicks’, ‘knuckle dragging right wingers’ et al. In which case, you might as well be painting Toronto/Vancouver Centre with a uniform ‘limp-wristed pansy’ brush as well. You really need sensitivity training--and not just in terms of psephological technique...

Such are the perils when you tell an abusive jerk that he needs sensitivity training.


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 25 March 2008 04:47 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It will be amusing to see them flood Trinity-Spadina with Liberal predictions and watch EP predict it for Ianno (and get it wrong). Hopefully they're right about Parkdale-High Park though...
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 25 March 2008 06:02 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd still say "him" rather than "them"--the writing style's too recognizable. And it'll take more than that to move Milton's ticker...
From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 10 April 2008 04:57 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, he of the many sock puppets is still posting away--I copied two of his opportunistic nom de plume entries for Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre in one of the Babble Lukiwski threads.

I'm tempted to think of him as the Dimitri the Lover of election forecasting...

[note: Babblers may need a strong stomach to go through the above links, you've been forewarned]

[ 10 April 2008: Message edited by: adma ]

[ 10 April 2008: Message edited by: adma ]


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 21 May 2008 04:44 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Latest sock puppet, "Hannah Montana". And here's a couple of doozy entries...

In Essex agriculture is suffering badly from the high Canadian dollar and out of control gas prices. People in the west end of the riding who in the past drove to Windsor for high paying auto sector jobs now can't find work. What's happened is an explosion of bible belt churches in Essex as people turn to religion because they have nothing else. You'll also find a much higher than average number of hunters in this riding too. All of this makes Essex Stephen Harper country where bible belt voters are told on Sunday to vote Conservative. Jeff Watson is the ideal MP for this type of riding and will still be the MP here 26 years from now.

26 years?!? Yeah, right...

And...

David Sweet didn't earn the name 'Pastor Sweet’ for nothing. He is one of the most devoted old time Christians in the Conservative caucus. The Sweet family has very deep roots in the church community in Flamborough, Ancaster and Dundas and thanks to the religious vote and the farm vote, Sweet will win every poll in those three towns. The NDP will win every poll in the very left wing Westdale area that surrounds Mac U but will finish a weak third because the Liberals will end up second in the small towns and second in Westdale. Pastor Sweet will have even a bigger win in this riding than he had in 2006.

Dundas?!? (among other things) Yeah, right. At this point, he's *really* trolling.

Re the "Milton Chan conspiracy theory" notion, I guess it's of relevance that Milton was in Iggy's leadership camp (thus, perhaps, the hangup about Gerard Kennedy, who, after all, helped coldcock Iggy's leadership bid). And re all the obsessing about bible belters/rednecks/knuckle-draggers; well, Milton's had his personal run-ins with party neanderthal homophobes such as Paul Steckle before, so perhaps there's a kind of sublimation or letting-out-steam involved...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged
Lord Palmerston
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4901

posted 21 May 2008 05:07 PM      Profile for Lord Palmerston     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah. It's quite comical to read his hate-on for Kennedy though. But some of his the NDP has no chance predictions would be more credible if he didn't exaggerate so much - i.e., the NDP will be in fourth place in Westmount-Ville Marie, or that Maria Minna will beat Marilyn Churley by 10,000 votes.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
thorin_bane
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6194

posted 21 May 2008 05:55 PM      Profile for thorin_bane     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Watson may lose hios seat as he has done less than nothing for his riding, it all depends on who the NDP and lib run...I suspect sue whalen again.
From: Looking at the despair of Detroit from across the river! | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
David Young
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14805

posted 21 May 2008 06:28 PM      Profile for David Young     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
According to the Pundit's Guide, Sue Whelan has been nominated again as Liberal candidate.

Taras Natyshak is once again the NDP candidate.

No (so-called) Green candidate yet, but Jim Brown is the C.A.P. candidate.


From: Liverpool, N.S. | Registered: Dec 2007  |  IP: Logged
ottawaobserver
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 14981

posted 21 May 2008 08:22 PM      Profile for ottawaobserver     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by David Young:
No (so-called) Green candidate yet

Well, if you're interested, they're looking ... they need one in time for the nomination meeting being held later today ...


From: Ottawa | Registered: Feb 2008  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1299

posted 21 May 2008 09:05 PM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by ottawaobserver:
Well, if you're interested, they're looking ... they need one in time for the nomination meeting being held later today ...

In my experience, that's usually considered a bit late to be starting your candidate search process.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sean in Ottawa
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4173

posted 21 May 2008 09:26 PM      Profile for Sean in Ottawa     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I was very interested in the election prediction project when it first came out but it really is quite useless. They do not call any of the close seats which is the point - this means the site is only worth something on the eve of an election. they do not use any methodology related to the collection of the data - they spend the energy to collect the data and then over-rule it without any explanation.
From: Ottawa | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
adma
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11856

posted 22 May 2008 04:42 PM      Profile for adma     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Sean in Ottawa:
I was very interested in the election prediction project when it first came out but it really is quite useless. They do not call any of the close seats which is the point - this means the site is only worth something on the eve of an election. they do not use any methodology related to the collection of the data - they spend the energy to collect the data and then over-rule it without any explanation.

Well, it isn't like there was ever anything scientific/systematic about the data collection process--basically, what mattered (note past tense) is that it (picking up where David Savitt left off in '97) translated the idea of seat-by-seat election-predictioneering into a reasonably legitimate web-discussion-forum context, at all. Otherwise, there was as much "methodology" to it as there was to those old radio-station hit-parade surveys (i.e. the ones compiled through a mystery formula of "sales, requests, and the station's judgment of the record's appeal", or something like that).

And if anything proves the pre-Y2K primitivism of the EPP formula, it's democraticSPACE. At the same time, with primitivism can come a certain homespun web-forum charm; as scientifically refined as democraticSPACE is, it hasn't been, for some reason (science cancelling out will, or simply EPP's seniority?), the same kind of magnet for armchair psephologists who want to spout off. (Note the lack or absence of comments for a lot of '07 Ontario election ridings in dS, compared to EPP.) Though maybe it will be the default spot now that EPP's being tripped up by Liberal-insider psychodrama, or whatever it is.

One other interesting thing about I'm Always Right et al: assuming that he's a Milton Chan toady/wannabe rather than Milton Chan himself, and assuming he's based around St. Catharines, it's noteworthy that there's been *no* comments on his part yet re Niagara Falls--a seat where, theoretically, the Liberals could be in a relatively good position to knock out Rob Nicholson. So, if anyone out there in Babbleland knows who's who and what's what in NF Liberaldom, perhaps that may help clarify the picture...


From: toronto | Registered: Jan 2006  |  IP: Logged

All times are Pacific Time  

   Close Topic    Move Topic    Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
Hop To:

Contact Us | rabble.ca | Policy Statement

Copyright 2001-2008 rabble.ca