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Author Topic: Babble Space: Lorefice could win in Central Nova
mark_alfred
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posted 16 April 2007 11:04 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The NDP came second last time, and have closed the gap each time over the last couple of elections. Louise Lorefice, a retired history teacher and mother of eight, will be running for the NDP this time.

Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay is running for the Conservatives. He has history in the region, and a high profile, but there are economic issues there which could be his achilles' heel.

The Liberals, who came third last time, have decided they could never win the riding, and instead are apparently supporting some fringe candidate.

[ 16 April 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cameron W
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posted 16 April 2007 11:19 AM      Profile for Cameron W   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Already being discussed in THIS THREAD.
From: Left Coast | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged
Catchfire
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posted 16 April 2007 11:20 AM      Profile for Catchfire   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This is embarrassing. There is already a thread on this Central Nova riding (and a million others on May, and several others on McKay vs May). The NDP have about as much chance to win this riding as the Green Party. Move on.
From: On the heather | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
Jacob Two-Two
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posted 16 April 2007 11:45 AM      Profile for Jacob Two-Two     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nonsense. The most likely outcome is still a Con victory, true, but the NDP have a fair chance of taking it as well. All those drifting Liberal voters with nowhere to go have made this race rife with possibilities. If they go disproportionately to the NDP, the game is ours. I think that's a distinct possibility.
From: There is but one Gord and Moolah is his profit | Registered: Jan 2002  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
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posted 16 April 2007 11:53 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Agreed. A MacKay victory is most likely, but there's been a history of NDP growth, and how the former Liberal voters react to Dion's endorsed candidate in the riding is anyone's guess.
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Catchfire
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posted 16 April 2007 11:56 AM      Profile for Catchfire   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree. It is nonsense that the first three threads in TAT are about the Central Nova riding.
From: On the heather | Registered: Apr 2003  |  IP: Logged
BitWhys
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posted 16 April 2007 12:04 PM      Profile for BitWhys     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
give him a break. once the polls slip out from the PC backbench there'll be no amount of jawboning that's going to turn her into contender.
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mark_alfred
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posted 16 April 2007 12:25 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The election prediction project has had a pretty high accuracy rate. They currently haven't called this riding yet (which if it was a definite slam-dunk, they would have). See Central Nova election prediction.

[ 16 April 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


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Stockholm
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posted 16 April 2007 07:11 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The "election prediction" site is run by a card carrying Liberal who makes predictions based on his PERSONAL opinions. He is no better informed than any of us - he is just a person who has created a website where he can make his own PERSONAL predictions based on a combination of wishful thinking (from a Liberal perspective), some superficial analysis of national trends and bit of spin the bottle.

Given that no election has even been called, he tends only to be aclling races that are 100% slam dunks for one party or another.


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mark_alfred
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posted 16 April 2007 07:39 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
That's interesting to know, Stockholm. I realize it's probably biased, with votes arbitrarily accepted or rejected, but I still enjoy the site.

Anyway, here's a bit of my own superficial analysis: I feel that Lorefice's focus on economic development for Central Nova will resonate more with the disaffected voters who want to see MacKay out of office then will her competitor's focus on the environment (and statements such as "the environment and the economy are the same issue" won't wash with people there).


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Red Partisan
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posted 16 April 2007 07:59 PM      Profile for Red Partisan        Edit/Delete Post
The main question will be "Does this government deserve to continue to exist?" If the answer is yes, they will vote in McKay.

Down the list from that will be personal party affiliations, perceptions of the leaders, and then finally, way down the list, the local candidates themselves.

At best, a local candidate can only hope to move 20% of the vote. Normally it would be more like 10% or 15%. I think MacKay will win in this department because he is the local candidate and May is not.


From: Toronto | Registered: Feb 2007  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
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posted 16 April 2007 09:38 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Interesting, RP. I think the order you give as to what determines a vote (should gov't exist, party affiliation, perception of leader, then, local candidate) is accurate.

I think MacKay will come first, but I'm not sure who'll come second. I'm guessing NDP, since they came second last time, and Lorefice is a local entity. Still, May is reasonably charismatic, and has some roots in Nova Scotia. So, who knows.

However, I'm still gonna follow my gut feeling and call it
1.) MacKay
2.) Lorefice
3.) May (which would be an improvement over the Greens' previous fourth position in 2006 after the third placed Liberals.... oh, right, the Liberals aren't there this time.)

Note: I don't think it's impossible for Lorefice to win, though. Depends how things unwind.

[ 16 April 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 April 2007 05:11 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Still, May is reasonably charismatic, and has some roots in Nova Scotia.

Whether or not she is "charismatic" is a matter of opinion. 99% of Canadians don't know her yet and seeing her being grilled by the media this weekend I found that she came across like she had just finished blowing up a balloon..

Her roots in Nova Scotia are very very shallow. She was born and raised in Connecticut and has lived in Ottawa for most of her adult life. Having a cottage on Cape Breton that you visit now and then is not likely to impress anyone in mainland Nova Scotia.


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kylebailey260
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posted 17 April 2007 07:59 AM      Profile for kylebailey260     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:

Her roots in Nova Scotia are very very shallow. She was born and raised in Connecticut and has lived in Ottawa for most of her adult life. Having a cottage on Cape Breton that you visit now and then is not likely to impress anyone in mainland Nova Scotia.



From Wikipedia:

"Her family moved to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, in 1972.

Once in Cape Breton, her family suffered a reversal of fortune due directly to involvement in protest against an environmental abuse. May waited on tables for eleven years to put herself through university. She graduated from Dalhousie Law School in 1983. She began work as an environmental lawyer advising Tom McMillan, Brian Mulroney's Environment minister. She resigned from her post after learning of the government's plan to grant permits for the Rafferty-Alameda Dams in Saskatchewan without performing environmental assessments.

May's family home is in Margaree Harbour, Cape Breton, Nova Scotia but she has lived in Ottawa since 1985."


From: Montreal | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
kylebailey260
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posted 17 April 2007 08:02 AM      Profile for kylebailey260     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Mind you, Wikipedia can be alittle crazy.

Article on the Green Party of Canada
"The party's support has ranged between 4.5% and 13% since the 2006 federal election and has not polled below 7% in any opinion poll in 2007"

This is untrue is it not? A recent poll placed the Greens at 5% right?

No better thread to find evidence of small support for the Green party than one with Stockholm


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Stockholm
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posted 17 April 2007 08:05 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So she lived in Cape Breton from 1972 to 1985 - and there is not one square inch of Cape Breton Island in the riding of Central Nova.

The fact that her family still has a vacation property in Cape Breton is a pretty tenuous connection and if I lived in Stellarton, i would not be impressed at all.

BTW: This all brings me back to my question of why Elizabeth May didn't choose to run in Ottawa-West-Nepean. I mean, she has painted her deal with Dion as being SINGULARLY about "saving the planet" etc... so why not run in her hometown of Ottawa against John Baird - a hard right ideologue if ever there was one AND Minister of the Environment???

But there would be a slight complication there. The Liberals were a strong second to Baird and probably told her that Ottawa West was a bit too rich for them to give up.

Does anyone SERIOUSLY think for one second that May would have chosen to run in Central Nova without having been in close communications with Dion's people to make sure that they had a "deal".


From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
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posted 17 April 2007 08:10 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Does anyone SERIOUSLY think for one second that May would have chosen to run in Central Nova without having been in close communications with Dion's people to make sure that they had a "deal".

Given the level of delusion I've seen in these forums, nothing will surprise me now.

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Briguy
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posted 17 April 2007 08:19 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Stock, her home really is the Margaree area, despite your protests. She did a lot of work there in her youth blocking the spraying of various hazardous chemicals. She does have some real environmental credentials, and a real claim to being a Cape Bretoner. This particular tack of yours is rather silly (although the other criticisms are pretty much correct).

That doesn't change the fact that she is currently a political disaster, but she does deserve some credit for her past (or rather, doesn't deserve her past to be factlessly slagged).


From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 17 April 2007 08:23 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Stock, her home really is the Margaree area, despite your protests.

How many nights a year does she actually sleep there? (my guess is a couple of weeks in late July and early August of every year when the weather is nice)

My point remains that Central Nova is not now, nor has it ever been Cape Breton Island. Close only counts in horsehoes.

If she has such a claim to being a "real Cape Bretoner" why pray tel is she not running for a seat in (drum roll please) Cape Breton Island???

In fact, I have often heard that mainland Nova Scotians regard Cape Breton as being practically another province.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: Stockholm ]


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mark_alfred
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posted 17 April 2007 09:46 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Whether or not May has any claim to an association with the Central Nova riding, there is no doubt that it pales with how connected Louise Lorefice is to the riding. See New Glasgow news article.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 April 2007 10:37 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
After 25 years spent working on campaigns for the New Democratic Party, Louise Lorefice is seeking the NDP Central Nova nomination.

...Lorefice is a retired teacher from Antigonish who says she is "aware of the important issues facing youth, young families, and seniors in our communities in rural Nova Scotia."

She said some of those issues include economic and social security for working families, health care and the environment.

"The NDP has a clear and responsible plan to deal with these issue and I want to be part of the team that builds a better, healthier, more inclusive Canada," she said.


quote:
Originally posted by mark_alfred:
Whether or not May has any claim to an association with the Central Nova riding, there is no doubt that it pales with how connected Louise Lorefice is to the riding. See New Glasgow news article.

From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDPundit
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posted 17 April 2007 10:46 AM      Profile for NDPundit     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Does anyone SERIOUSLY think for one second that May would have chosen to run in Central Nova without having been in close communications with Dion's people to make sure that they had a "deal".

I completely agree with Stockholm here. In May's justification for this deal, she says that she promises to be a truth-teller in politics. I would like o see a reporter ask her some tough questions for once: When was the first time you talked to a Liberal about where you would run for a seat? Did you talk to any senior Liberals before announcing that you would run in Central Nova?

Then we would find out what kind of truth-teller she is.


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Briguy
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posted 17 April 2007 11:07 AM      Profile for Briguy     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
You so missed my point. She deserves to be slagged for running in Central Nova, no question. The summer-home bullshit about Margaree is just pointless, so don't bother with it.
From: No one is arguing that we should run the space program based on Physics 101. | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
scott
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posted 17 April 2007 01:08 PM      Profile for scott   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
How many nights a year does she actually sleep there? (my guess is a couple of weeks in late July and early August of every year when the weather is nice)

How many nights a year does Jack Layton sleep in Toronto—Danforth? My guess would be 0, and I would be right.


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quelar
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posted 17 April 2007 01:16 PM      Profile for quelar     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yeah, but if you hang out there long enough you'll eventually run into Jack in his riding, usually at a bar as my experience has been.... although I do spend a lot of time at bars
From: In Dig Nation | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 17 April 2007 02:19 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It's not a real good point though, because there's a bit of a difference between "parachuting" into urban ridings and "parachuting" into rural ones. Central Nova is a pretty rural riding, and most of the riding is much further away from Cape Breton than Toronto-Danforth is from Trinity-Spadina. Besides Layton's riding is pretty much right next door to where he actually lives, not to mention the fact that his connection to the riding is a lot more solid having represented it federally and municipally for years, when compared to May who hasn't lived or worked in Nova Scotia for years. It would be like if I grew up in Prince George, went to Ottawa for twenty years, then decided that I should become the MP for Prince Rupert.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 April 2007 02:53 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
...there's a bit of a difference between "parachuting" into urban ridings and "parachuting" into rural ones. Central Nova is a pretty rural riding, and most of the riding is much further away from Cape Breton

Parachuting into rural ridings is much more difficult, rural ridings are closed and resistent to change, they will vote local before they vote external.

This will give both the Lorefice and MacKay better fortunes, than May.

None of Central Nova in in Cape Breton.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Trevormkidd
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posted 17 April 2007 05:24 PM      Profile for Trevormkidd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
It's not a real good point though, because there's a bit of a difference between "parachuting" into urban ridings and "parachuting" into rural ones.

I guess no one told the voters of mostly rural Timmins - James Bay that when they gave parachute candidate Charlie Angus 41% in 2004 (and then 51% in 2006) despite the riding being held by a Liberal previously. (Incidently he could have easily ran in home riding as the position was open when he decided to run in TJB. He would have won the nomination with ease, being the head of riding association at the time and incredibly popular among NDPers).


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redflag
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posted 17 April 2007 07:00 PM      Profile for redflag     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Babble really needs to get ourselves a person from Central Nova for us to pique their brains. It'd be a lot more reassuring than all of our idle speculation...

Not that I have a problem with the idle speculation, just that I'm really wishing that we could have someone from the area we've all been fixated on spell stuff out for us.


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Vansterdam Kid
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posted 17 April 2007 08:35 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Trevormkidd:

I guess no one told the voters of mostly rural Timmins - James Bay that when they gave parachute candidate Charlie Angus 41% in 2004 (and then 51% in 2006) despite the riding being held by a Liberal previously. (Incidently he could have easily ran in home riding as the position was open when he decided to run in TJB. He would have won the nomination with ease, being the head of riding association at the time and incredibly popular among NDPers).


Really? I'm not an expert on the riding but according to wikipedia Angus lives in Cobalt, Ontario. In another article it also says that the district of Cobalt is in TJB for the most part. So if you want to split hairs, I suppose it's possible that he doesn't live directly in the riding. But it's pretty obvious that since Cobalt is in both ridings, he'd have had a connection to it - especially since he's lived there since 1990. As for Elizabeth May wikipedia says that she was born in Cape Breton, but has not lived there since 1985. Making her connection a lot more tenuous.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 17 April 2007 08:47 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Trevormkidd:
I guess no one told the voters of mostly rural Timmins - James Bay that when they gave parachute candidate Charlie Angus 41% in 2004 (and then 51% in 2006) despite the riding being held by a Liberal previously. (Incidently he could have easily ran in home riding as the position was open when he decided to run in TJB. He would have won the nomination with ease, being the head of riding association at the time and incredibly popular among NDPers).

Well, actually one can hardly parchute twice into the same riding can one in 2 back to back elections?

But aisde from that, let's have a look at voter numbers:

Central Nova: 12,002

TJB: 35,092

TJB is hardly considered to be 'rural' with x3 voters more than Central Nova. And it would seem Mr Angus, is a "local" to the both of the riding's areas.

The more 'rural' the area the more closed. This could very well play out quite, quite fine for the NDP and Ms Lorefice.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 17 April 2007 08:59 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I live fairly close, and in an area with a lot of cultural and demograhic similarities. And I know the on the ground situation in the riding well.

Even if I lived in the riding, I don't think it would give me much authority.

With that caveat, I'll make a couple points.

I don't think May will be seen as a parachute. On the other hand, she's not even 'sort of local'. She would be that if in the most general way, she was seen as Nova Scotian. But she is not.

The other thing is that her greatest chance to make inroads was in Antigonish town and county- away from MacKay's prime turf and around the university.

But that is also Louise's home turf.

Long time teachers do VERY well in small town Nova Scotia as candidates. A lot of your students are around, they cover a number of age brackets, they have a lot of place identification that they share with the candidate, and a lot of shared and known social networking.

It is a qualitatively and categorically different phenomena than what it means to have been a teacher in Metro [which still helps], let alone in the GTA or Greater Vancouver.... or small town Ontario [where I have also lived] for that matter.

Louise also has Alexis MacDonald's personal network to draw on [Antigonish as well], and extensive NDP organization and networks in Pictou County where 2 of 3 MLAs are NDP and get elected / re-elected only by having very strong organizations.

Then there are the Conservative organizations and personal networking. The last election was already a wake up call to MacKay that he had to pay more attention. I'm sure they took note loud and clear.

Something very similar happened to Alexa McDonough. After years of coasting she only won by under 2,000 votes in 2004. Not close, but sobering. The 2006 campaign was different- blew the competition out of the water and had resources to contribute to other ridings.

MacKay isn't going to be able to blow May away in the same fashion- but the point about 'mindfulness' of organization is apropos.

Against this you have the Green forces.

The media circus around May will count for something. I don't think it will be resented. And when people meet her or hear of someone who has [which they will], I think they will be inclined to be charitable and generally warm to her. But liking or being generally favourably disposed to candidates doesn't tip the balance for too many voters.

And what Green forces can there possibly be? Halifaz is 2 to 3 hours drive away and home to no more than a few dozen Green activists- most of whom have little or no campaign experience, and I doubt more than a handful will even come. There won't be more than a dozen POTENTIAL in the riding or within an hour.

Not that a fair number of inspired folks won't walk in the door of the HQ.

If people fly in for volunteer stints in the riding, I don't think they will be looked at askance. But they are going to sticl out and be looked at with some amusement more than the Deaniacs in Iowa... whose impressive numbers made almost no impact.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
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posted 17 April 2007 09:05 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
12002 voters? There were 61137 eligible voters, of which about 42000 voted. The results from the last Central Nova election were:

Peter G. MacKay (CPC)
17134

Alexis MacDonald (NDP)
13861

Dan Walsh (Lib)
10349

David Orton (Green Party)
671

Allan H. Bezanson (other)
124

Hmm. Perhaps the Green Party will be able to break 1000 votes this time.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 17 April 2007 09:09 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
As for Elizabeth May wikipedia says that she was born in Cape Breton

No. It says: "May was born in Connecticut to affluent parents ... Her family moved to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, in 1972."

Her official bio skips birth and growing up.

According to Library and Archives Canada: "Elizabeth May, writer, activist, lawyer and mother, was born in Connecticut in 1954, eventually settling in Cape Breton in 1972."

This confirms the wikipedia info.


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
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posted 17 April 2007 09:13 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks KenS. Some interesting information.
From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 17 April 2007 09:54 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by writer:

No. It says: "May was born in Connecticut to affluent parents ... Her family moved to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, in 1972."

Her official bio skips birth and growing up.

According to Library and Archives Canada: "Elizabeth May, writer, activist, lawyer and mother, was born in Connecticut in 1954, eventually settling in Cape Breton in 1972."

This confirms the wikipedia info.


Oops, that's what I meant to say - that she lived (not born) there, and hasn't lived there in a long time.

Anyways, that's some interesting information Ken. But I don't understand how you can say that McKay won't blow her away, by beefing up his organization to beat off a surprisingly close challenge similar to what Alexa McDonough faced. It sounds like you're saying May has a chance to put in a very respectable result, yet that likely won't tip too many votes because it isn't that important on a local level? So how exactly would she get her votes without a bump from the media, or from a local machine? So I'm not sure where you're going with that. It seems like the two points are mutual exclusive. Would the local Liberal machine, such that it exists, follow Dion's advice and support her? Because it sounds like some of them, tip of the hat to Kuri btw, might decide to run an 'independent' Liberal campaign instead.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 17 April 2007 10:34 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I made the point that will follow in another thread. I didn't say it here so as not to rain on the parade: "Louise Loefice can beat MacKay."

The point I made was that not surprisingly, the NDP cannot throw big time resources into every riding. The vote share is high across Nova Scotia, but when resources are allocated across the country that still doesn't leave it likely even half the 11 ridings get top funding.

There are 2 incumbent ridings, and 3 that easily come ahead of Central Nova for potential this time around [South Shore, Halifax West, and Dartmouth].

So a lot of outside resources for Central Nova in unlikely.

BUT, level of resources put in are to a large degree a reflection of what is deveoped in money and volunteers locally. IE, if you show strong local campaign development you'll move up the ranking of resource allocation even if your 'objective' potential is less.

AND, the NDP is pretty good at mid-campaign shifting of resources into a riding that is showing surprising potential. And there is a deep pool of experienced campaigners in Nova Scotia.

So if there are lots of volunteers avaliable, extra experienced organizing help can be tapped- a fair bit of which is already in that riding.

In other words, build it and they will come.

Who knows what will develop in the run up to a campaign. It is even possible that May's participation and the attention that goes with her will give Louise a better crack at MacKay.

Its a very unusual trype of 3 way split. But 3 way splits produce surprising outcomes.

It's also worth noting that Louise Lorefice is not just keeping the seat warm for alexis MacDonald to come back to.

I don't know this, but I'll bet Louise does not see this as a one time deal. May will not be around next time, and she'll have another crack at MacKay.

We're good at both sudden and creeping victories in Nova Scotia. And if MacKay is still standing the following election, he and his government will be getting ragged.

======================

To donate to Louise Lorefice's NDP campaign in Central Nova:
Make the cheque out to "Central Nova NDP"

Mail to:

Wayne Pierce
RR#2
Scotsburn, NS B0K 1R0


For those who don't know how tax credits work:

- donation up to $400 you get a 75% tax credit.

That is total of ALL donations to any federal political entity, party or riding association.

- anything over $400 your tax credit declines to 50% and declines again before you hit the maximum donation level.


Thanks to Unionist for the tips on how to search Babble, which is how I found this info I posted 4 days ago in a thread I would never have remembered.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: KenS ]

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174

posted 17 April 2007 11:01 PM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Answering VK:

When Alexa blew away the competition after taking it more seriously in 2006 she didn't have an opponent who could give as much of a run at MacKay as May can.

As to the local Liberals, at best, they don't amount to much in the riding... let alone that most of them will stay home rather than help May.

My account of what the Gliberal / May campaign is up against is not to say they won't be able to achieve a lot. Just that the chances of them overcoming everything and winning are remote.

[I made the point elsewhere that even if they run a bang up high energy campaign with momentum, the chances of the Greens going good local voter identification and pulling the vote on election day are remote. They don't have and won't have the infrastructure for it. And IF they do get with in striking distance of winning, they will need that to put them over the top.]

And if Louise and the NDP run even a half serious campaign, May doesn't even have a prayer of catching MacKay. In that case, she will most likely place third even if the Greens outspend the NDP 3 to 1.

Did that answer your questions?


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4806

posted 17 April 2007 11:19 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:
I made the point that will follow in another thread. I didn't say it here so as not to rain on the parade: "Louise Loefice can beat MacKay."

Don't worry about raining on the parade here. No one's deluded in this thread.

[ 17 April 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5474

posted 17 April 2007 11:30 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yep, thanks.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Trevormkidd
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12720

posted 18 April 2007 03:46 AM      Profile for Trevormkidd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
Really? I'm not an expert on the riding but according to wikipedia Angus lives in Cobalt, Ontario.

Angus does live in Cobalt.


quote:
In another article it also says that the district of Cobalt is in TJB for the most part.

Cobalt is in southern Timiskaming which is part of Nipissing-Timiskaming. I grew up a half hour drive north of Angus and that is still in the district of Nipissing-Timiskaming.

quote:
So if you want to split hairs, I suppose it's possible that he doesn't live directly in the riding. But it's pretty obvious that since Cobalt is in both ridings, he'd have had a connection to it - especially since he's lived there since 1990.

Cobalt is not in both ridings. I am not saying that Angus has no connection to his riding. His magazine "Highgrader" is respected throughout Northern Ontario. But everyone considered him to be a parachute candidate especially seeing as the nomination in his home riding was open. There were letters to the editor wondering why a riding that is almost 300,000 square km couldn't find a "local" candidate.


From: SL | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Trevormkidd
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12720

posted 18 April 2007 03:57 AM      Profile for Trevormkidd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by remind:
But aisde from that, let's have a look at voter numbers:

Central Nova: 12,002

TJB: 35,092

TJB is hardly considered to be 'rural' with x3 voters more than Central Nova. And it would seem Mr Angus, is a "local" to the both of the riding's areas.

The more 'rural' the area the more closed. This could very well play out quite, quite fine for the NDP and Ms Lorefice.


Not sure where you got your voter numbers but 42,139 voted in Central Nova in 2006 (according to wikipedia) vesus 37,952 in Timmins James Bay.

The population of Timmins James Bay is 84,000 versus 73,000 in Central Nova. TJB is about 35 times the size of CN and in fact that 84,000 people live in a riding that dwarfs all of southern ontario with its population of 12 million.

The population density of TJB is 0.2 or 0.3 people per square kilometer with many tiny isolated communities without road access. Which makes central nova's 9 people per square kilometer look like a metropolis.


From: SL | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Scott Piatkowski
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1299

posted 18 April 2007 10:47 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by writer:
No. It says: "May was born in Connecticut to affluent parents ... Her family moved to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, in 1972."

Given her views on ensouled fetuses, I'm surprised that her bio doesn't start in the womb.


From: Kitchener-Waterloo | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 3138

posted 18 April 2007 11:12 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Maybe Charlie Angus would be comparable to EMAY, if he had been born in the US, spent a few years as a teen and young adult in Cobalt, then moved to Vancouver and lived there for the past 20-odd years and THEN suddenly chose to run for Parliament from TJB.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 18 April 2007 01:02 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Trevormkidd:
Not sure where you got your voter numbers


From the elections Canada web sitebelow:

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2006/default.html

Perhaps I misread the numbers.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
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posted 18 April 2007 01:21 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think 12002 was some indexing number from the table.

For instance,

12000 some riding's data
12001 another riding's data
12002 Central Nova's data
12003 another riding's data

I saw the site myself, and found its layout a bit confusing.


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 5474

posted 18 April 2007 01:28 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Trevor, I'm just getting the information from the article the TJB article, including this:

quote:
The district [TJB] includes the extreme eastern part of the District of Kenora, all of the District of Cochrane except for the central western part, and a small part south of Timmins, and all of the District of Timiskaming except for the extreme southeastern part.

So I suggest you change that if it's wrong.

Anyhow, how about that May? Does anyone know where in Cape Breton she lived, when she lived there?

[ 18 April 2007: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Trevormkidd
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12720

posted 18 April 2007 04:35 PM      Profile for Trevormkidd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
Trevor, I'm just getting the information from the article the TJB article, including this:

The district [TJB] includes the extreme eastern part of the District of Kenora, all of the District of Cochrane except for the central western part, and a small part south of Timmins, and all of the District of Timiskaming except for the extreme southeastern part.


I think the confusion is people are thinking that Cobalt is in the District of Cochrane. It is not. Cobalt along with Latchford are the two most southerly communities in the District of Timiskaming.

I do take issue with the statement in the article that only the extreme southeastern part of Timiskaming is included in Nipissing-Timiskaming. The area is still relatively large and half the population of Timiskaming lives in the southern part of the district which was added to Nipissing. The northern border of Dymond township (which is part of Nipissing-Timiskaming) would be pretty close to the halfway point from north to south in Timiskaming.


From: SL | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Trevormkidd
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 12720

posted 18 April 2007 05:15 PM      Profile for Trevormkidd     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Stockholm:
Maybe Charlie Angus would be comparable to EMAY, if he had been born in the US, spent a few years as a teen and young adult in Cobalt, then moved to Vancouver and lived there for the past 20-odd years and THEN suddenly chose to run for Parliament from TJB.

Stockholm, I wasn't comparing May to Angus, in fact I didn't mention her. I do not believe the widely accepted opinion that rural voters are less likely to vote for parachute candidates.

There are many stereotypes which people have of rural populations (including ones which rural people hold of themselves) which are exaggerated (like any other kind of stereotype).

The stereotype that the voters of TJB would not vote for a parachute candidate was a very prevalent opinion when Angus was first running. The reason? Rural people were less likely to accept a candidate who did not live there. Friends and relatives that I know in the riding had no issue with voting for such a candidate, but suspected Angus wouldn't win because most "other people" would have an issue. It turned out that even though many people and the press thought that not living in the riding would be an issue, voting day showed that opinion to be completely wrong.

That was a good thing too. Rejecting Angus because he didn't live in the riding would have been rejecting someone who has turned out to be one of the best MPs in the house.

I don't live in Central Nova, but I have lived in many rural communities and each time found that the overwhelming majority of them do not match the many stereotypes. I believe that Elizabeth May will win or lose based on how well she connects with voters and whether or not they view the ideas and platform of the Green Party to match their values etc. I doubt that the fact that she does not live in the riding will play a part in the voting decision for many CN voters. If May loses it is because voters rejected her or her party, not her place of residence.


From: SL | Registered: Jun 2006  |  IP: Logged
Dave Mann
recent-rabble-rouser
Babbler # 9314

posted 21 April 2007 10:56 PM      Profile for Dave Mann   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Belinda Stronach should support New Democrat Louise Lorefice in Central Nova. Two reasons:

1) She supports more women in politics;

2.1) Speaking of government funding for women's groups such as REAL Women Canada which are pro-life, Stronach said, Toronto Star (September 21, 2006) "They should be rejected because they're anti-choice and they're also anti-equal rights. They don't support equality."

2.2) Elizabeth May (National Post December 15, 2006) "I don't think a woman has a frivolous right to choose.[...] Nobody in their right mind is for abortions. I've talked women out of having abortions. I would never have an abortion myself, not in a million years. I can't imagine the circumstances that would have ever induced me to it."

The choice, Belinda is clear. The situation deserves another bold, unexpected move.


From: Brantford | Registered: May 2005  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 24 April 2007 05:05 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Lorefice more than just a token candidate

"I wasn't surprised. I think we had been hearing rumblings of that kind of a deal going for a while on the street – My first response has been, kind of sadness that it has come to this."

The News



From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 6289

posted 24 April 2007 10:04 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A great analogy about the May-Dionember relationship by Lorefice:
quote:
If you have a hockey tournament, one team withdraws because they want a weaker team to win, you lose your fans pretty fast – to say nothing of team morale. I think you could apply that comparison...
Because this riding has now become more high profile, Lorefice is going to get much more coverage than she might have gotten, had this "relationship" not occured.

Combine that with the response to the article by an area resident:

quote:
Considering that the NDP only missed being elected by about 3000 votes and now that 10,000 liberal votes have to find a new home... the NDP may very well be able to pull off the upset.

The NDP are extremely lucky to have attracted a local candidate as respected in the community as Louise is. Someone with roots and a record of service to the area.


And the recent poll showing disfavour of the May-Dionember relationship and it would seem the NDP could well pick up this riding.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
kylebailey260
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11330

posted 24 April 2007 11:46 AM      Profile for kylebailey260     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Uhhh....Central Nova involves more than two teams!

Anyway, from someone who is rooting for the Greens very hard in this particular riding- congratulations to the dippers for mounting an excellent campaign. If EMAY loses, I'm not gonna be terribly upset if Lorefice gets in. Personally, I don't think there is a very strong chance, but its great to see the NDP machine getting revved up.

Trevormkidd- I like your thoughts on rural ridings. I grew up in a fairly rural riding (and stil live in 40% of the time)- which had Helena Guergis parachuted in. The LIberal, an incumbent who had a pretty good relatinship with almost everybody, got booted out in a fairly tight election.

Vansterdamkid, her hometown is Margeree Harbour (its on her facebook profile ). I think the time she lived there is on her wikipedia article- I mentioned it in an earlier thread.

In terms of connecting with the riding, I think it'll be great to see the three candidates compete for it. It is not inconceivable that EMAY and Lorefice tag-team Mackay in some of the debates- his recored on not bringing economic prosperity (and equity) in Central Nova will be a tempting target for both of them.

Wouldn't be amazing if the race became a two-way run between Mackay and Lorefice?

Does anyone know what kind of debator Lorefice is? it would be so nice to see them both marginalize of Peter, to clear the field for a rivalry between them.


From: Montreal | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
kylebailey260
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 11330

posted 24 April 2007 11:47 AM      Profile for kylebailey260     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by kylebailey260:
Uhhh....Central Nova involves more than two teams!

Anyway, from someone who is rooting for the Greens very hard in this particular riding- congratulations to the dippers for mounting an excellent campaign. If EMAY loses, I'm not gonna be terribly upset if Lorefice gets in. Personally, I don't think there is a very strong chance, but its great to see the NDP machine getting revved up.

Trevormkidd- I like your thoughts on rural ridings. I grew up in a fairly rural riding (and stil live in 40% of the time)- which had Helena Guergis parachuted in. The LIberal, an incumbent who had a pretty good relatinship with almost everybody, got booted out in a fairly tight election.

Vansterdamkid, her hometown is Margeree Harbour (its on her facebook profile ). I think the time she lived there is on her wikipedia article- I mentioned it in an earlier thread.

In terms of connecting with the riding, I think it'll be great to see the three candidates compete for it. It is not inconceivable that EMAY and Lorefice tag-team Mackay in some of the debates- his recored on not bringing economic prosperity (and equity) in Central Nova will be a tempting target for both of them.

Wouldn't be amazing if the race became a two-way run between Mackay and Lorefice?

Does anyone know what kind of debator Lorefice is? it would be so nice to see them both marginalize of Peter, to clear the field for a rivalry between them.

I think my babble postings have a direct negative relationship with my GPA.



From: Montreal | Registered: Dec 2005  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 24 April 2007 01:19 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So a saintly nuanced pranti-choice environmentalist party leader who wants to save the world goes into a bar for a social drink and a giggle - setting aside her singular mission to avenge the murder of her adored Progressive Conservative Party of Canada for just one light-hearted evening.

She gets there, and who is waiting for her but the evil anti-environment environmental minister of the dastardly government set to destroy all good things!

So she sits down, and the two of them have a social drink and a giggle together. Maybe they mug for the cameras one more time while they don't take themselves too seriously.

[Sorry, no punch line.]

quote:
By 6 PM I was at a popular local vegetarian restaurant, The Green Door, to give a scheduled talk to the Harvard Club on the “Business Case for Kyoto.” As a large crowd milled about with trays overflowing from the yummy organic gourmet smorgasbord, who wandered in looking for his “take out” dinner, but John Baird. To the vast amusement of the gathering, I urged him to stay for my speech, but told him it was pretty much a systematic attack on his policies. He said he didn’t want to crowd in on my event. We mugged for the cameras a bit and agreed to get together soon.

We do get along, which is weird. He does not take himself too seriously and I don’t take myself seriously, no matter how intensely we each pursue our goals. His goal: get Harper a majority. My goal: save Kyoto, save Canada and get to policies that protect my daughter’s future. Call it maternal instinct.

Meanwhile, we are booked for a social drink and a giggle or two as soon as we can squeeze it in.

Surrealistic Days
Elizabeth May


[ 24 April 2007: Message edited by: writer ]


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
pencil-skirt
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4612

posted 25 April 2007 07:25 PM      Profile for pencil-skirt     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Has any one heard any updates about the potential for a "liberal" (note small L) to run in this election? I had heard some disgruntled Liberals were considering the move...
From: Saturn | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4806

posted 29 April 2007 08:10 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by pencil-skirt:
Has any one heard any updates about the potential for a "liberal" (note small L) to run in this election? I had heard some disgruntled Liberals were considering the move...

I'd be surprised if this happened. It's not a wealthy riding, and this would be an expensive way to protest.

From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 02 May 2007 08:46 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Has any one heard any updates about the potential for a "liberal" (note small L) to run in this election? I had heard some disgruntled Liberals were considering the move...

No, but:

quote:
As will likely become evident in time, I am a member of the Green Party of Nova Scotia. My membership with the GPNS is very conditional as I have only recently become a member after a 20-year hiatus from "Green" politics. To date, I am not overly impressed with the internal political and questionable democratic conduct of the GPNS. On political principle I am not, nor have ever been, a member of the Green Party of Canada. Please see my letter to the GPNS announcing my boycott of the Party's AGM, May 4-6, 2007, due to Elizabeth May's having been invited to address the membership.

Signed,
Sebastian Ronin
The guy who has decided to run as an independent in Central Nova

His Website
The News

His letter to the Green Party of Nova Scotia (Word document): "By issuing an invitation to Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party of Canada, to address the GPNS AGM, May 4-6, 2007, I can only assume that the GPNS endorses Ms. May’s highly unethical political conduct in Central Nova. I refer, of course, to the unconscionable and undemocratic May-Dion pact of withdrawing the Liberal candidate from Central Nova for the pending Federal election. I consider this action to be an act of electoral theft from the Liberal voters in the riding. I believe the political consequences shall reflect the motives and the action of the May-Dion pact."

[ 02 May 2007: Message edited by: writer ]


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 03 May 2007 01:36 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Long time Green running as independent in Central Nova, upset with Betty May: Socialist Gulag

"I've been following the letters to the editor sections in the various newspapers & a lotta Greens aren't too happy either about this backroom deal & I figured, sooner or later, we'd see something of this sort. As well, a potential independent candidacy from a disgruntled Liberal is more likely than not, so the Red Green show here in Central Nova may not have the desired results one may think."

[ 03 May 2007: Message edited by: writer ]


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 04 May 2007 03:22 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Independent to run in Central Nova, Maxwell's House: "I am intrigued by your candidacy, but I am confounded by your reasoning for doing so. As best as I can tell, the catalyst for your decision to run is the Liberal Party's agreement not to nominate a candidate in Central Nova. I would have thought that you, as someone who has apparently been pursuing a 'green' agenda for so many years, would jump at the opportunity of having a Green Party presence in the House of Commons. Let's be frank and admit that the Party's odds of electing an MP would otherwise be extremely slim."
From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4806

posted 04 May 2007 04:36 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
A provincial Green, who opposed the creation of a federal Green party, is now proposing to run federally "For those Liberal voters who are opposed to having their freedom of political expression denied." (?)

Not sure what to make of this guy. I feel he should just support Lorefice. But, he's free to do as he wishes.

It is a sign that the RedGreen show is not wholly impressive to some Nova Scotians.

[ 04 May 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4806

posted 04 May 2007 04:37 AM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Argh. This bulletin board program should move the quote function away from the edit function.

[ 04 May 2007: Message edited by: mark_alfred ]


From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 04 May 2007 05:09 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post

[ 04 May 2007: Message edited by: writer ]


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
writer
editor emeritus
Babbler # 2513

posted 04 May 2007 02:00 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Central Nova Will Have A Real 'Green' Candidate, Right in Manitoba

Well, this is awkward, Creekside


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
mark_alfred
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 4806

posted 05 May 2007 09:27 PM      Profile for mark_alfred     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
From the Chronical Herald
Most Canadians don’t think much of the Green-Liberal non-aggression pact unveiled in Stellarton two weeks ago, a new poll suggests....In Atlantic Canada, though, 30 per cent said they would vote for Ms. Lorefice, while 21 per cent would opt for Mr. MacKay and 16 per cent for Ms. May. (The margin of error for the Atlantic sample is larger at 9.8 percentage points, so those numbers are not as reliable as the national numbers.)

Lorefice could definitely take the riding.

From: Toronto | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
ForestGreen
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 13611

posted 05 May 2007 09:59 PM      Profile for ForestGreen     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by KenS:

And if Louise and the NDP run even a half serious campaign, May doesn't even have a prayer of catching MacKay. In that case, she will most likely place third even if the Greens outspend the NDP 3 to 1.


I don't think Peter MacKay is out of reach of either of the other two candidates (May and Lorifice, that is). I looked at the polls, and the Conservatives have lost about 20% of their support in the polls since the last election - or about 7% of the total throughout the Maritimes. That could put MacKay down around the low-mid thirties, leaving the possibility of a three-way race.
I find the Lorifice-May race harder to predict, not knowing anything about Lorifice. (I'm at the opposite end of the country). Traditionally, in this riding, Liberal support has exceeded NDP support, and I think the Alexa McDonald levels of support (35%) were more an exception than the rule, at least in this riding. Often, in the past, NDP pulled in somewhere around 15% of the vote. I suppose you'd have to compare that to Canada-wide voting patterns, and then Nova Scotia voting patterns to get a clearer picture. Most of the non-Tory vote, though, has usually gone to the Liberals, and in the days of the Tory-Alliance split, the riding actually went Liberal for a few years.
Basically, what the Angus Reid poll showed was that NDP was as likely to gain as much from disenchanted Liberals as they were to lose support to people migrating to the Greens. The big factor here is how many Liberals stay at home, or decide to vote for May.


From: Alberta | Registered: Nov 2006  |  IP: Logged
KenS
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 1174

posted 06 May 2007 01:28 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In case you didn't see it, I gave a more systematic description of politics in the ridng before that one you quoted from. It was at
17 April 2007 08:59 PM

I didn't say that MacKay was out of reach of either of the other candidates.

The odds against either one of them are very long. And the odds are zero if both the other candidates do fairly well.

As I already said and you quoted, if the NDP runs a half way serious campaign, then May cannot win, and it's only a question of whether she comes second or third.

If May's campaign fizzles despite the Greens spending a fortune on the race, then MacKay MIGHT barely be in reach for Lorefice.

If both the others run reasonably strong campaigns, there is only a remote chance one of them could win, say if child porn was found on MacKay's laptop.

It doesn't seem likely the NDP is going to run a weak campaign, so May barely even has long odds.

While I wouldn't say it is a real high probability, I can see May tanking badly from a combination of poor local image, ineffective ground campaign, and poor national image.

If that were to happen,that would put MacKay potentially within reach of Lorefice, and it would depend primarily on how the NDP and Conservative national campaigns are doing.

When going from a national/regional poll you can't extrapolate exacly the same percentage of movement to where a popular incumbent and senior Minister is running.

The Conservatives aren't in the range yet of dropping 7% in that kind of riding. We won't see the possibility of those kind of numbers until an election. And keep in mind that MacKay is going to pick up a chunk of those loose Libewal votes.

quote:
Traditionally, in this riding, Liberal support has exceeded NDP support, and I think the Alexa McDonald levels of support (35%) were more an exception than the rule, at least in this riding. Often, in the past, NDP pulled in somewhere around 15% of the vote. I suppose you'd have to compare that to Canada-wide voting patterns,

Over the weeks there have been a number of discussions, not sure if it was in this thread, of why this is not true.

Summarizing: it isn't an anomalay. The NDP now has a strong and solid base in the riding, provincially and federally. The old history is irrelavent, the Liberals are very much has beens in the riding.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 06 May 2007 06:08 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
AS a matter of fact, the NDP didn't do all that well in Central Nova in the 1997 and 2000 elections when Alexa MacDonough was leader. The NDP popular vote in Central Nova really took off in the 2004 and 2006 elections when Jack Layton was leader and Alexis McDonald was the candidate.
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janfromthebruce
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posted 06 May 2007 06:49 AM      Profile for janfromthebruce     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Election results 2006

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share Elected
Peter G. MacKay CON 17134 40.66% X
Alexis MacDonald NDP 13861 32.89%
Dan Walsh LIB 10349 24.56%
David Orton GRN 671 1.59%
Allan H. Bezanson ML 124 0.29%

Election results 2004
DISTRICT: Central Nova
Peter G. MacKay ** CONS 16376 43.3 5906 15.6
Alexis MacDonald NDP 10470 27.7
Susan L. Green LIB 9986 26.4
Rebecca Mosher GRN 1015 2.7

As you can see, the NDP came 2nd in 2004, 2006. The libs came a distant 3rd in 2006, and both times the Greens were not even in the race.


From: cow country | Registered: Apr 2007  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 09 May 2007 04:02 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Analysis from independent candidate for Central Nova Sebastian Ronin, The Opportunity:

quote:
The very intent of the May-Dion pact, i.e. the gagging of the Liberal Central Nova constituency, could back-fire and be inverted by the electoral voice of a small portion of that very constituency to determine some serious political consequences at the federal level...

The NDP candidate, Louise Lorefice, is on record as saying that the May-Dion pact is "a gift" for the NDP. When one looks at the electoral numbers, this could very well be the case. Actually, an NDP victory in Central Nova could be the intent behind the May-Dion pact, a gesture of appeasement to Jack Layton and the Federal NDP to pave the way for an attempt to unite the left. When reports first surfaced that the Greens and Liberals were hunkered down behind closed doors, the reported item on the table was how to unseat Peter MacKay, not necessarily how to elect Ms. May.

As for Peter MacKay and the Conservatives, well, in all likelihood Mr. MacKay holds the seat of Central Nova, if the Liberal vote does not swarm over to the NDP.



From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 09 May 2007 04:12 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
since you posted it writer, do you have a comment on its relevance?
From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 09 May 2007 04:29 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
His interpretation of the deal is refreshingly original. His potential role as a spoiler in this riding may be quite interesting to watch. His writing ability is far superior to Elizabeth May's.

He may be a bit of an eccentric: a smart local eccentric with insight about the fluid movement of voters and a compelling story of how he got to where and how he lives now.

And it's got nothing to do with shopping at Frenchy's.

Clearly, he is no leftist. He sees a level of cooperation between the Liberals, Greens and NDP that I don't see - because the NDP doesn't actually consider the Liberal and Green parties as being on the left.

Ronin might be a very good illustration of the strong libertarian tendency within the grassroots of the Green Party.

I'm glad he's joined the race.

You?


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KenS
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posted 09 May 2007 04:37 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Sure, I like the make-it-intersting factor he adds... if he pulls together the steep deposit, and if anyone notices him.

For that matter, interesting grist for us junkies even if he isn't noticed.

But I wouldn't call his theory about the deal 'original' or even eccentric.

Flat out loopy.

Now does it matter which? I don't know.

He won't have the kind of following he would if it was Quebec. And I mean 'following' in the sense of interest levels in what he says/does, not in the sense of people who agree with him.

More plain head scratching here.


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 09 May 2007 05:08 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So far, I can't see how he's any loopier than May, who has claimed that Harper's policies are THE BIGGEST THREAT to the planet (and the country), and who has annointed herself a "relentless truth-teller."

I don't write this to minimize Harper's policies. Or to claim that May never tells the truth. But a sense of proportion is always handy.

There's this grandiose visionary martyr/saint thing she seems to be trying to pull off that I'm hoping will wear thin, fast.

[ 09 May 2007: Message edited by: writer ]


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KenS
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posted 09 May 2007 05:22 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The more I'm on Babble the worse my spelling and attention to what I am writing gets. Have to edit the simplest stuff:

I just read Ronin's blog. so I should say that my 'loopy' comment was just directed at what writer had quoted: his take on why the Dion/May deal happened.

Overall he is more confusing to follow than he is loopy.

He wants to ba a spoiler on a point of principle, and I can't argue with that.

And his theory that I called 'loopy' is just the common problem people have when they interpret politicians' words where there is obviously more going on than the words themselves.

Sometimes people run in puzzling directions when filling in the blanks.

But I wasn't illuminated on the reason I went to his blog: how does Frenchy's come into the picture?

[ 09 May 2007: Message edited by: KenS ]


From: Minasville, NS | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
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posted 09 May 2007 05:25 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Elizabeth's Top Ten reasons for choosing Central Nova

See #1.


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
KenS
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posted 09 May 2007 05:36 AM      Profile for KenS     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
But I wasn't illuminated on the reason I went to his blog: how does Frenchy's come into the picture?

writer:

Elizabeth's Top Ten reasons for choosing Central Nova . See #1


...which takes us to the Green log:

quote:

And my number one (slightly tongue in cheek reason) Drum roll please: How could I live anywhere without a Frenchy's?

Now I was ready to agree with Elizabeth that FINALLY she had given a real reason for running there.

Only one problem, there are numerous Frenchy's in every Nova Scotia riding.


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Scott Piatkowski
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posted 09 May 2007 05:52 AM      Profile for Scott Piatkowski   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
10. Nova Scotia, and Atlantic Canada in general, are increasingly forgotten and un-represented. It is time to have a national leader of a political party in the House of Commons working for the people of Atlantic Canada.

COUGH * Alexa McDonough * COUGH


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Stockholm
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posted 09 May 2007 06:11 AM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Claiming that Elizabeth is a "party leader from Atlantic Canada" is like the Liberals trying to claim that John Turner was a British Columbian in 1984 and 1988.
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posted 15 June 2007 06:09 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Doug Corbett of Pictou, who ran for the Green party in the last provincial election, said in his opinion MacKay will be largely unaffected. "I don't think this will hurt Peter, this is a Tory riding," he said.

However, he isn't confident May will be able to win much support. He said he believes the deal the Liberals made with May will turn people off.

"I don't think May has a prayer with the way she has gone about this."

Peter MacKay might have a fight on his hands over his support of the budget


Blogging a Dead Horse: Liberals fuming over Dion’s free-ride for MacKay

hfxnews.ca: Layton set to take on MacKay NDP meeting in Antigonish slam 'betrayal' over Atlantic Accord


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 15 June 2007 08:04 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Dion’s backroom deal with the Liberal-spokesperson-who-runs-the-Green-Party (LSRGP) was poorly thought-out from the get-go.

And Jack calls it as it is!
quote:
I believe that people - not only in that riding but all across Nova Scotia - first of all, understand that the New Democrats have a very strong environmental record, but that we're not a one-issue party. This election isn't going to be about one issue," Layton said.

And the former Green Party Canadidate in Central Nova calls it as it is.
quote:
But Doug Corbett of Pictou, who ran for the Green party..isn't confident May will be able to win much support. He said he believes the deal the Liberals made with May will turn people off.

"I don't think May has a prayer with the way she has gone about this."


http://www.newglasgownews.com/index.cfm?sid=37194&sc=49


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 15 June 2007 12:52 PM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
NDP gather on a high note
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posted 16 June 2007 06:00 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
"We have to take on the promise-breakers," he said. "We’ve got to take on Stephen Harper. We’ve got to take on (Peter) MacKay.

"I’m here in support of the people of Nova Scotia who feel that they’ve been betrayed, and New Democrats, whether it’s in the House of Commons, whether it’s here in Nova Scotia, whether it’s in this riding (are) going to make sure that our voice is there with the voice of the people."

Mr. Layton was speaking in Central Nova, the seat held by Mr. MacKay, the foreign affairs minister. Federal NDP candidate Louise Lorefice got a standing ovation at the convention.

About 300 people were on hand to hear Mr. Layton’s speech Friday night. The convention continues today with a speech from provincial NDP Leader Darrell Dexter and debate on policy resolutions.

Don’t give up fight for accord, Layton says


quote:
“They don’t care about jobs,” said United Steel Workers District 6 vice-president Marie Kelly after a four-kilometre protest march from TrentonWorks to New Glasgow’s Carmichael Park.

“Our country is for sale. Our province is for sale. Our jobs have been for sale for a long time.”

Applause from hundreds of marchers greeted her scathing comments about Mr. MacDonald’s and Mr. MacKay’s apparent inability to do anything about job losses at TrentonWorks and other Nova Scotia factories.

... Politicians that can’t deliver should “get the hell out of the way” for the NDP, she added.

The NDP were highly visible at the rally. Opposition Leader Darrell Dexter, Central Nova candidate Louise Lorefice, Pictou West MLA Charlie Parker, and Pictou East MLA Clarrie MacKinnon attended as did Conservative Pictou Centre MLA Pat Dunn and Liberal labour critic Keith Colwell.

... Studies show that jobs draining southward will leave 83 per cent of the Nova Scotia population as seniors within 15 years, and just 34 per cent of them will have pensions, Mr. Dexter said. The lack of jobs means there won’t be a tax base to cover the necessary social programs, he added.

The United Steel Workers Local 1231 organized the march, joined by members of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, Nova Scotia Government Employees Union, the Canadian Auto Workers, teens skipping school — “for a good cause,” they said, tiny kids waving placards, people in wheelchairs, men in suits and ties, clergy, moms pushing strollers, and other concerned citizens.

“If you’ve never been without a salary you don’t know what these people are going through,” said Fred Jeffery of the Salvation Army, who attended to show solidarity with the workers.

MacDonald, MacKay slammed at Nova Scotia labour protest


quote:
Few Canadians west of the Atlantic ever consider the immense contributions made by residents of Atlantic Canada to the “have” provinces. For many decades workers from the Atlantic provinces helped to build western cities and towns, and currentlythey make up a large proportion of the oil patch workforce in Alberta.

However, this province has been on the cutting edge of technology for years and will continue to pursue that tack, provided there are enough skilled workers left to carry out the projects.

Boasting the highest tides in the world has been a hallmark. Currently, there are several companies floating ideas on how best to capitalize on our incredible potential as a major producer of renewable “green” electricity. Not only is the Bay of Fundy a prime place for tidal turbines, Nova Scotia's windswept coastline is ideal for wind-generated electricity.

It's high time the provincial government concentrated on ways to keep our workforce here. Providing incentives for future generations of workers to live and raise a family in this province many would prefer to call home would be a good place for our lame duck premier to start.

Too much posturing, not enough action



From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 16 June 2007 12:26 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
“They don’t care about jobs,” said United Steel Workers District 6 vice-president Marie Kelly...“Our country is for sale... Politicians that can’t deliver should “get the hell out of the way” for the NDP, she added.

The NDP were highly visible at the rally. Opposition Leader Darrell Dexter, Central Nova candidate Louise Lorefice, Pictou West MLA Charlie Parker, and Pictou East MLA Clarrie MacKinnon attended


The NDP certainly seem to have a growing momentum in NS. Those stats about population in 15 years and 34% only having a pension blew my mind!

No wonder Nova Scotians are demanding change.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
writer
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posted 18 June 2007 07:05 AM      Profile for writer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nova Scotia NDP believe they can defeat Peter MacKay cbc.ca

NDP candidate says support building in Central Nova riding thechronicleherald.ca


From: tentative | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged

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