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Author Topic: Latest Polling
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 08 April 2005 01:56 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I suppose a series of polls will be released as the possibility of an election call remains strong. Anyways I thought I'd start an omnibus polling thread on federal polling. Environics has just released a poll, it basically claims that everything is flat.

Environics Research Group - Press Release

quote:

Party Support. This latest survey shows that, nationally, 36 percent of eligible and decided Canadian voters would support the Liberal Party if an election were held today, compared with 37 percent in the December-January period (this difference falls well within the margin of sampling error). The Conservative Party now has the support of 30 percent (versus 29%), while the New Democratic Party is also holding steady at 19 percent (versus 20%). More than one in ten (13%) Canadian voters remain undecided about which party might deserve their support (up from 10%). These standings are remarkably similar to the actual result of last years federal election.[/snip]



From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 08 April 2005 02:03 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
Nice to see the poll (conducted between March 11 and April 6) showed no bump at all for the Conservatives from their dog and pony show in Montreal.

Liberals remain well in front in Atlantic Canada (up 6 and Cons down 4, NDP down 1)

Down in Quebec with no growth for Cons or NDP

Ontario has the Grits down by 3 and Cons up 4 (still well back)

In Manitoba, NDP and Cons are both up by 4, with Libs down 4

Saskatchewan (small sample) has the Liberals up by 11, in first place with 36 and the others in a virtual tie at 31/30

BC shows the Liberals up 6, Cons down 2 and NDP down 1.

[ 08 April 2005: Message edited by: RealityBites ]


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 08 April 2005 03:06 PM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The poll was released before the impact of Brault's testimony, so I expect another poll in a week would show a substantial decline for the Liberals.
From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 08 April 2005 03:59 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't know. I think the Liberals will take a hit, but probably a little later though. I think this needs to sink in first, and there's still the testimony and ruiling left. I think a lot of people will wait to pass judgement. Besides the Conservatives really haven't offered anyone anything yet, all they've done is say yeah the Liberals suck. The Bloc can at least say Yeah the Liberals suck, but we'll defend Quebec's intrests. This is something the NDP has done well on too cause they can say yeah the Liberals suck, but we're offering Canadians something.

This poll was just released today although, yeah BB you are right the Breau testimony wasn't released until the poll was finished and this slid through the public councioussness yet. Nonethless I think Canadians are reasonable in the sense that they want to wait and find out the results of the commision, cause lets not forget that 48% of people said No issues are worthy of going to an election on. That's still a very large number, and the issues that people did say were worthy of fighting an election on where far back, Gomery inquiry was only at 12% and was still outnumbered 31 to 27% in Quebec.

One thing I find strange is the way it took them four weeks to phone 2000 people!

[ 08 April 2005: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Cueball
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posted 08 April 2005 04:27 PM      Profile for Cueball   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
The poll was released before the impact of Brault's testimony, so I expect another poll in a week would show a substantial decline for the Liberals.

There will be no change. Canadians feel they have no alliegiance to any particular party, as none are actually expressing any really distinguishable policy differences. Again the main priority is to keep the Right out. The left is moribund.

[ 08 April 2005: Message edited by: Cueball ]


From: Out from under the bridge and out for a stroll | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 08 April 2005 04:39 PM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This poll is bullshit.

There's no way the Tories are at 34 in Toronto, higher than their national average, or that the NDP is only at 17 in Toronto, 3 points lower than in Ontario as a whole and only 2 points higher than in Alberta and only 6 points higher than in Quebec.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 08 April 2005 04:41 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Don't forget the only real important numbers are the national ones. Yet again the regional results have a high margin of error.
From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
knuckles
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posted 08 April 2005 11:03 PM      Profile for knuckles     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't know why they even bother with the regionals. The poll has 2000 respondants for the nation. When spilt, each region gets only 200 and a huge margin of error.

[ 08 April 2005: Message edited by: knuckles ]


From: US | Registered: Feb 2005  |  IP: Logged
Paul Gross
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posted 08 April 2005 11:39 PM      Profile for Paul Gross   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
globe and mail poll

quote:

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, found 34 per cent of respondents across Canada would vote for Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories. That's a dramatic shrink in the Liberal lead, from an 11-percentage point gap in February to only four points this week.
...
The Ipsos-Reid poll interviews began Tuesday, as rumours of explosive testimony under publication ban at the Gomery Commission were reported in the media and on the internet. A quarter of the interviews were conducted Thursday night, after the ban was lifted and the details of advertising executive Jean Brault's damning testimony hit television airwaves.
...
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives seemed to enjoy almost all of the gains from the Liberals' fall. Support from the New Democrats was at 15 per cent, down two percentage points from February.

From: central Centretown in central Canada | Registered: Jan 2003  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 09 April 2005 03:45 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
30% is the Cons level from the election. So while they may have gained from the previous poll, so far they haven't gained from the election, and the closing of the margin in Ontario is mostly due to the Liberals' drop rather than the Cons gain. And 8% in Quebec kind of puts the kabash on Leuca's fantasy of the Cons winning seats in that province.
From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
Boom Boom
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posted 09 April 2005 04:21 AM      Profile for Boom Boom     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'd just give the usual caveat - do not put too much faith in polls. Use them as a _guide_, not as a final authority or arbiter of politics. From this morning's _Mope and Wail_ :

_snip_

"The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, found 34 per cent of respondents across Canada would vote for Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories. That's a dramatic shrink in the Liberal lead, from an 11-percentage point gap in February to only four points this week.

The Liberals fell further behind the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, and the Conservatives almost wiped out the governing party's big lead in Ontario, the key swing region where shifts in support can cause changes in government."


From: Make the rich pay! | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 09 April 2005 07:11 AM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does anyone have the actual Ipsos numbers, rather than the select few given by that Globe article? It pitifully leaves out key items like the NDP and Bloc national numbers, and the levels of undecided.

Ipsos is now subscriber-only, so you can't just freely get details from their site.


From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 09 April 2005 07:35 AM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
The CTV website has NDP at 15 and BQ at 10. Green at 7 (yeah right) and other at 4. Don't know was at 11.

Ipsos has the largest Liberal drop in Alberta, where it could cause them to lose all of two seats (and no one would miss either of them).

These polling numbers look to me like we could see an election too close to call, with Liberals and Cons having similar amounts of seats totalling around 230 and the NDP not having enough seats to play kingmaker. A workable majority would require support from the Bloc or each other.

Perhaps the Liberal and Conservative parties should form a coalition. Maybe even a merger.

I can see only two issues they'd need to compromise on. If the Cons will agree to call something they don't believe is marriage, marriage, then the Liberals will agree to call something that isn't Kyoto, Kyoto.


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Hephaestion
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posted 09 April 2005 10:01 AM      Profile for Hephaestion   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Nuh-UH! Never work... they would deadlock over whether Paul Harper or Stephen Martin was the biggest, most uninspiring dud since Kim Turner...
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MasterDebator
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posted 09 April 2005 10:01 AM      Profile for MasterDebator        Edit/Delete Post
I have discussed this with many of my acquaintance, both male and female here in Prince George, which has been Reform/Tory country solid since 1993. But not among people I know, I hasten to add!

I would summarize it this way. Any thought of a Liberal upsurge in BC at this time is not on. It's basically the same thing that happened last June. Before Sheila Fraser's report there was some grounds for optimism that the Liberals would do really well in BC, and after than, all that could be hoped for was a modest gain. They did go up one or two seats overall, I think.

The NDP in BC cannot capitalize on scandals because of the record of Glen Clark, both his own dealings and the fast ferry fiasco.

But this further weighing down of the Liberal label may help Carole James to become the first woman to be elected as Premier of a major province, becuase the Liberals also have a provincial scandal around BC Rail and the raids on the Legislatur last year.


From: Goose Country Road, Prince George, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
capebretoner
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posted 09 April 2005 10:28 AM      Profile for capebretoner        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by MasterDebator:
[QB]But this further weighing down of the Liberal label may help Carole James to become the first woman to be elected as Premier of a major provinceQB]

just wondering...besides rita johnson in bc who wasnt elected, has any other woman been a premier in canadian history?


From: blah blah blah | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
Threads
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posted 09 April 2005 10:35 AM      Profile for Threads     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Catherine Callbeck (PEI) and Pat Duncan (Yukon) both became premier by winning a provincial/territorial election.
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AppleSeed
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posted 09 April 2005 10:44 AM      Profile for AppleSeed     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Only eleven percent?

I propose a massive vote swing to the Don't Know party.

After 4 yrs, when the lid blows off the pot and we're asked what happened, well we just Don't Know. The pollsters will head for the bar, ordering doubles.

And we'll not only be scratching our heads, but candidates as well.


From: In Dreams | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Rob8305
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posted 09 April 2005 12:28 PM      Profile for Rob8305     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So based on this new Ipsos poll.....

election next week or not?

Thoughts very welcome.


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MasterDebator
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posted 09 April 2005 01:40 PM      Profile for MasterDebator        Edit/Delete Post
I don't know how the insider strategists calculate these things, but I would think that for an immediate election call they would want to see the Liberal national number falling below 30% and staying there for a month or two.

Probably real life strategists are looking at answers to more sophisticated questions that just the party vote intention question. Such as "Is there any party for which you would NOT vote?", as an indicator of how much of the electorate is closed off to a particular party, and how much that amount has changed.

For the NDP to want an election, I think they would like to see the NDP national number over 20% for a month or two. Given the way the NDP positions itself, a financial scandal is most likely to push voters in the direction of the Conservatives. That's something the NDP needs to work on longer term, and stop falling into the trap of following a "strategy" that is nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophesy, where you don't talk about economic or financial issues, saying "we're not credible on those issues", and then on election nite saying "I told you so." That may make a party employee look terribly savvy, but it won't alter our vote totals in a hundred years.


From: Goose Country Road, Prince George, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Left Turn
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posted 09 April 2005 02:27 PM      Profile for Left Turn     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I propose a massive vote swing to the Don't Know party.

This is exactly what appears to be happening. Many cross-pressured voters do not seem willing to park their support with any one party at the moment. Support for the Liberal is slowly dwindling, but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. I predict that voter turnout will fall to new lows in the next election.


From: Burnaby, BC | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
sir_springer
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posted 09 April 2005 04:22 PM      Profile for sir_springer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by MasterDebator:
I have discussed this with many of my acquaintance, both male and female here in Prince George, which has been Reform/Tory country solid since 1993. But not among people I know, I hasten to add!

I would summarize it this way. Any thought of a Liberal upsurge in BC at this time is not on. It's basically the same thing that happened last June. Before Sheila Fraser's report there was some grounds for optimism that the Liberals would do really well in BC, and after than, all that could be hoped for was a modest gain. They did go up one or two seats overall, I think.

The NDP in BC cannot capitalize on scandals because of the record of Glen Clark, both his own dealings and the fast ferry fiasco.

But this further weighing down of the Liberal label may help Carole James to become the first woman to be elected as Premier of a major province, becuase the Liberals also have a provincial scandal around BC Rail and the raids on the Legislatur last year.



Pretty accurate assessment.

Paul Martin had convinced a considerable number in the Vancouver area, particularly in the business community, that he was going to be a different kind of Liberal...which turned into a few wins on June 28.

Close friend of mine in Vancouver and within the business ranks, had warned me of Martin's popularity down there prior to the election.
He now says that few believe that nonsense any longer. Martin is pretty much a bust.

And, apparently quite unlike Ontarians, British Columbians don't take kindly to corruption in government.

Our BC Liberal Party, for the most part, goes to great lengths to distance itself from the federal party...and I suspect will go to much greater lengths now.

Our own BC Liberal MLA is a strong supporter of our local CPC MP.


From: Kootenays, BC | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 09 April 2005 04:43 PM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Springer you are such a lying fake buffoon.

The BC Liberals are not Liberal, they are the old social credit and Reform, as you well know. Much like the new CPC, they stole a name thinking they could get elected. Yes, they did get elected here with the phoney brand, but have fooled no one for at least 3 years.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Tommy_Paine
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posted 09 April 2005 04:57 PM      Profile for Tommy_Paine     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
It would seem the Liberals are losing support, but no one is scooping it up.

The election, if and when, will go to the first party who comes up with the lightning rod plank.


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Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 09 April 2005 05:04 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
We're not going to see the impact of the Gomery revelations until the next round of polling - this may very well (and I hope I'm wrong) turn out to be a flash-in-the-pan, or the Liberals may be able to muddy the water by dropping some revelations of their own about Brault et al. One would hope that the Liberals will start to haemorrhage over this, but people may either not care, or just throw up their hands and say 'politicians - they're all at it'.
From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
dramaman
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posted 09 April 2005 06:51 PM      Profile for dramaman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
"We're not going to see the impact of the Gomery revelations until the next round of polling" -

Impact, if any. According to the conservative sites, Canadian voters are one of -

a) stupid
b) misinformed
c) idiots
d) morons
e) dumb

If 'none of the above', they are duped by the big bad CBC.

Same old mantra.


From: SW Ontario | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 09 April 2005 09:34 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Of course, dramaman, Canadian voters are only stupid misinformed idiotic dumb morons as long as they keep electing Liberal governments. Once they hand the Cons a slim artificial FPTP majority, Canadian voters will be considered quite wise.

[ 09 April 2005: Message edited by: Albireo ]


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Vansterdam Kid
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posted 09 April 2005 10:51 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by sir_springer:

Pretty accurate assessment.

Paul Martin had convinced a considerable number in the Vancouver area, particularly in the business community, that he was going to be a different kind of Liberal...which turned into a few wins on June 28.

Close friend of mine in Vancouver and within the business ranks, had warned me of Martin's popularity down there prior to the election.
He now says that few believe that nonsense any longer. Martin is pretty much a bust.


Umm no....

It's a little more complicated than that. As you get deeper into Vancouver the chances of the Conservatives winning anything decreases -- largely cause much of the Canadian Alliance populist vote went to the NDP and the new Conservatives are seen as really bleh. The Liberal vote pretty much stayed the same, as you know they only increased their vote by 1.5%! And they only picked up one seat in the Vancouver area, and where relativley close in a few other places. In the city itself the ridings are either Liberal strongholds, or Liberal vs NDP races (with one NDP stronghold). And I can't imagine them going Conservative anytime soon, although it's realistic to see the Cons pick up North Van, if they run a moderate. The suburbs are pretty much three-way races.

Anyhow the simple fact of the matter is that in Vancouver the Conservatives are yucky. Or a joke. For instance everyone I talked too, and most of them aren't particularly political either, thought the local Conservative candidate was a joke! The people I've talked to where going to A)vote NDP, B)vote Liberal or C) not vote. I know talked too two people who voted Conservative, clearly more did, nonethless, they are in a clear urban decline. They need to be more palatble to urban voters. And ignoring urban issues will ensure people won't vote for them in significant enough numbers for them to win any seats.


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Jughead
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posted 10 April 2005 10:34 PM      Profile for Jughead     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
EKOS out monday 11th lapresse 'n' torstar

Federal
Cons 36.2
Libs 25
NDP 20.5

Quebec
Bloc - 50
Cons - 18
Lib - 15
NDP - 10

Ont
Cons - 40
Lib - 33
NDP - 21


From: uhuh | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
sgm
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posted 10 April 2005 10:44 PM      Profile for sgm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Where's your link, Jughead?
From: I have welcomed the dawn from the fields of Saskatchewan | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 10 April 2005 10:56 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/article/article_complet.php?path=/actualites/article/11/1,63,0,042005,989618.php
From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:05 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
So its far worst than we thought, and Springer and Leuca were right. Leuca was espeically right, as 18% could get the Conseratives 1 seat in Quebec. I'm shocked that they were right.
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MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:06 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
Mind you these numbers would mean a minority government. And what are the numbers for the Atlantic? And out west for that matter?
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MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:22 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
You know I could be completely off on this, but my guess is that the 33% in Ontario is concentrated in certain areas. So I'm pretty sure that the Conservatives would not win a majority of seats in Ontario, just a pluarality with these types of numbers. If Olivia Chow ran she would win I think, and Jack Layton would have little to no trouble being re-elected with these numbers. Too bad Paul Martin said he believes only seats count, as with these numbers he may still be able to try to hold on as Prime Minister. But maybe not with what the popular vote projections are.
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Vansterdam Kid
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posted 10 April 2005 11:24 PM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
MIP23, don't say that just yet. Those numbers aren't intune with Ipsos or Environics. I'd like to see some trends develop, I think the Conservatives, and the NDP for that matter, will want to wait until they see their chances of getting more seats solidified before they pull the plug. That's why the Bloc wants to pull the plug, but the NDP and Cons are more leery.

I wonder when Pollra and Compass will be reporting? Also is there anyone else?


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
radiorahim
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posted 10 April 2005 11:38 PM      Profile for radiorahim     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
So its far worst than we thought, and Springer and Leuca were right. Leuca was espeically right, as 18% could get the Conseratives 1 seat in Quebec. I'm shocked that they were right.

A 50% vote for the BQ could result in perhaps as many as 70 seats going to the BQ ... maybe even all 75.

I see the Conservatives perhaps being competitive in a very small number of Liberal seats but that's about it. The Conservatives just don't have the "on the ground" organization that the Liberals have.

Also, in the regional breakdown an 18/15 figure is pretty much a tie considering that regional breakdowns are inaccurate.

[ 10 April 2005: Message edited by: radiorahim ]


From: a Micro$oft-free computer | Registered: Jun 2002  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:41 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
MIP23, don't say that just yet.

Okay. But I do want to point out that this is the first poll released and conducted after the revelations were offiicially released. In other words, this was the first poll to be released that was conducted after the revelations were officially released.

From: Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:42 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Also, in the regional breakdown an 18/15 figure is pretty much a tie considering that regional breakdowns are inaccurate.



Yes, but I've never seen the Cons as high as 18% before in Quebec.

From: Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 10 April 2005 11:42 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
A 50% vote for the BQ could result in perhaps as many as 70 seats going to the BQ ... maybe even all 75.


It could considering the low Liberal number. Makes you wonder what is going on here.


From: Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 10 April 2005 11:44 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The LaPresse article only mentions the NDP support in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba as 37% in each province. It doesn't have any other Western info for any of the parties.

Let me try to guess the BC numbers:
NDP 37
CON 34
LIB 20
GRN 8
OTH 1
(Please, please, please, let that be the breakdown)


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 10 April 2005 11:48 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by MonkeyIslanderPolical23:

It could considering the low Liberal number. Makes you wonder what is going on here.


I think about 60 seats will go BQ, some with the BQ vote in the 80% plus range. The other 15 seats are a mystery at this time.


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Vansterdam Kid
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posted 11 April 2005 12:26 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by radiorahim:

A 50% vote for the BQ could result in perhaps as many as 70 seats going to the BQ ... maybe even all 75.

I see the Conservatives perhaps being competitive in a very small number of Liberal seats but that's about it. The Conservatives just don't have the "on the ground" organization that the Liberals have.

[ 10 April 2005: Message edited by: radiorahim ]


I agree with you about the organization but disagree about the Bloc numbers. The Bloc could gain five seats if an election where held right now. Perhaps even another eleven with a good campaign. But the remaining ten seats are Liberal STRONGHOLDS! I would imagine, with a campaign, that strokes the fears of the possibility of a BQ sweep and/or Cons. gov't would easily save those other ten seats that are largely allophone or Anglophone. And I really can't see the Conservatives finishing ahead of the Liberals, I would guess both they and the NDP would get around 10% each in the province. That being said the Conservatives will make a very strong attempt to get their Quebec lieutenant, Josee Verner, elected. Unfortunately Pierre Ducasse finished so far behind in Manicougan, meaning the chances of him getting elected are relatively remote.

I know the Environics poll was complied almost completely before the revelations where revealed. But the Ipsos poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday. If the poll numbers where relatively good for the Liberals on Tuesday and Wednesday while suddenly dropping on Thursday that's bad for the Liberals and good for everyone else, since the details where "released" on Thursday (right?). If it's not the case then the Liberals don't need to worry, as much. Anyways I give credit where credit is due -- I think it’s folly to underestimate the Liberal campaign machine, they’re masters campaigners *in general* .

BTW if those NDP numbers in the West are true Privateer that would be great. In BC the NDP finished first or second in 21 of the ridings. And they could *relativley* easily pick up ten or so of them. And it would be great for them to get some representation in Saskatchewan back, it's completely ridiculous that they haven't. Perhaps the fact that Saskatchewan is a have province now is helping take some heat off Calvert (and by association the federal NDP too).

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 11 April 2005 02:30 AM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Actually, the NDP is ahead in three of four Western Provinces. CHA-CHING, SEATS BIG TIME.

Ducasse needs to run in our best possible Montreal seat.

This poll is now in the Toronto Star.


From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Hephaestion
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posted 11 April 2005 02:45 AM      Profile for Hephaestion   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Excerpts from TorStar story are over here...
From: goodbye... :-( | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Bookish Agrarian
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posted 11 April 2005 04:42 AM      Profile for Bookish Agrarian   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's a bit I figured out in another thread-

If you take out Quebec, in the rest of Canada the Liberals are at 27.2 % and the NDP is at 25.8%. That's pretty close to a dead heat. Time for progressive voters to get off the sinking ship and join the one that's cruising along quite nicely it would seem.

The Cons are hard to figure because 70% in Alberta skews the numbers so bad, especailly when you consider that at most it might mean 2 extra seats.


From: Home of this year's IPM | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rev. Phoenix
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posted 11 April 2005 04:52 AM      Profile for Rev. Phoenix     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Lets turn strategic voting against them
From: Bradford | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Hephaestion
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posted 11 April 2005 05:27 AM      Profile for Hephaestion   Author's Homepage        Edit/Delete Post
Heh heh heh... wouldn't that be rich!
From: goodbye... :-( | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Krago
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posted 11 April 2005 05:56 AM      Profile for Krago     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here are the EKOS regional breakdowns, based on the graphs in the Toronto Star (2004 results in brackets):

Atlantic
Con - 43% (30%)
Lib - 39% (44%)
NDP - 17% (23%)
Grn - 0% (3%)

Quebec
BQ - 50% (49%)
Con - 18% (9%)
Lib - 15% (34%)
NDP - 10% (5%)
Grn - 5% (3%)

Ontario
Con - 40% (32%)
Lib - 33% (45%)
NDP - 21% (18%)
Grn - 6% (4%)

Manitoba/Saskatchewan
NDP - 37% (23%)
Con - 35% (40%)
Lib - 23% (30%)
Grn - 6% (3%)

Alberta
Con - 70% (62%)
NDP - 15% (10%)
Lib - 10% (22%)
Grn - 5% (6%)

BC
NDP - 37% (27%)
Con - 29% (36%)
Lib - 28% (29%)
Grn - 7% (6%)

Canada outside Quebec
Con - 42% (37%)
Lib - 28% (38%)
NDP - 24% (19%)
Grn - 5% (5%)

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Krago ]


From: The Royal City | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Mandos
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posted 11 April 2005 06:12 AM      Profile for Mandos   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Wow from an NDP POV it really IS time for an election!
From: There, there. | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Bookish Agrarian
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posted 11 April 2005 06:20 AM      Profile for Bookish Agrarian   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The best news of the day, the NDP is ahead of the Fiberals in Alberta!
From: Home of this year's IPM | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Leuca
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posted 11 April 2005 06:26 AM      Profile for Leuca     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If these are the poll numbers right now, and there are still several weeks of bad news ahead as well as a bruising election campaign, the Liberal are looking like they are in for a crushing defeat, I mean they could be virtually wiped out.

What a legacy eh, Chretien, 'cause the proof is the proof is the proof and when it is proven it is proven'?


From: Toronto | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged
NDP Newbie
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posted 11 April 2005 07:35 AM      Profile for NDP Newbie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
In my opinion, there has never been a better time than now for the NDP to side with the Cons and the Blocheads in bringing down the Fiberals on ethics issues.

The NDP is polling very well, the election map is extremely volatile right now, and we have so many potential trump cards that my fingers are getting increasingly giddy.

1. George W. Bush: This is a bit of a dark horse, but save David Pratt, who was defeated by some Tory in 2004, there is no Fiberal more rabidly pro-American and more overtly supportive of the Bush agenda than Stephen Harper and the Canadian ass piece of the GOP. 80% of Canadians dislike and fear Bush and are not fond of his foreign policy: At least 20% of those must be Tory voters! Go get 'em tiger!

2. Same-sex marriage: Even if a narrow majority of Canadians leans against equal marriage, a vast majority oppose using the Charter to block it, and even more support marriage-in-all-but-name. The spectre of the Tories using the Charter combined with Liberal flip-flopping on this issue over the years can make for a potent one-two punch.

3. The soft-nationalist vote in Quebec: Leftish voters who lean towards sovereignty but consider other issues to be more important are very much up for grabs and are only convinced about one thing: They are not voting Liberal. If Harper is capable of silencing the extremists in his party, he may pick up a good chunk of these voters if we ignore them. Naturally, he won't do well as Mulroney, who had charisma, social moderation, a Quebec electorate that was extremely pro-American (which has since changed 180 degrees), support from hard nationalists, and Quebec roots...Ah fuck it. They'll just vote Bloc if we ignore them...Too many Tory negatives this time.

4. The charisma deficit: Intellectually, Layton is at least as big a heavyweight as Harper (and, not being locked in a thinktank for most of his life, is capable of applying to the real world far more readily), and both greatly surpass Martin on this capacity. Harper has 0 charisma though. Hmmm...

5. Ethics: Who was that Quebecois standing with Stephen Harper shortly after the leadership convention? It certainly wasn't Gilles Duceppe.


From: Cornwall, ON | Registered: Mar 2004  |  IP: Logged
Jimmy Brogan
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posted 11 April 2005 07:45 AM      Profile for Jimmy Brogan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The first chance to bring down the government will be Thursday, which is an opposition day. The Blocheads are pondering whether to bring a non-confidence motion at that time. We should know today if they plan to proceed with it.
From: The right choice - Iggy Thumbscrews for Liberal leader | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 11 April 2005 08:12 AM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I am one of those who thinks the Gomery inquiry hasn't revealed much we didn't already know, in theory if not with-names-attached.

And Harper's Party doesn't even believe in campaign contribution rules at all. If they had their way, bag men would be bumping into one another as they roamed the halls of government.

In Ontario, the Harris Reformatories were corrupt to the core. One Cabinet insider (and candidate for National Leader of the Reformatories!) got $80,000.00 for a talent search for a government position. What he did for the $80,000.00 was to swivel his chair and point to the woman sitting next to him for the previous six years.

If there is any risk of a Harper 40% majority government, then we should not bother. Otherwise,
the Liberals have misgoverned us since about 1993, so away with them.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Burns
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posted 11 April 2005 08:38 AM      Profile for Burns   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Jeff, this is way worse than anything the Tories were ever caught doing. I don't deny this sort of payola may have been happening - but no one was ever caught. No one ever stood before an in inquiry and said, "They demanded kickbacks. Here's where I made the drop."

The Liberal party of Canada established a system to funnel public money back to the party. This wasn't an occasional plum pork position. This wasn't an isolated kickback. This was a well-established, systemic enterprise designed to steal public money on an ongoing basis.

The public, to some extent, will say "They're all the same" but in a far more immediate way they will want to punish these particular wrong-doers - and the only means they have is an election.

My take is that the public wants revenge more than systemic change. This will be a "throw the bums out" election and the public won't care about the bums they put in.

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Burns ]


From: ... is everything. Location! Location! Location! | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
Michelle
Moderator
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posted 11 April 2005 08:41 AM      Profile for Michelle   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think it's worse than anything the Conservatives have done.

Read On The Take. If even half the stuff Cameron details in that book is true, Conservatives are corrupt to the core.


From: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more cowbell. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Burns
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posted 11 April 2005 08:51 AM      Profile for Burns   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think we are really really misreading the public mood if we try and argue that Stephen Harper is "just as bad". The guy's never held office. It's about as credible as linking Jack to Glen Clark. More importantly, I think the public is mad at Liberals. I think trying to redirect the anger people feel towards Harper is, at best, an exercise in futility.

I don't doubt that other parties are capable of (or have even tried) the exact same scams. I just don't think the public will care.


From: ... is everything. Location! Location! Location! | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
skdadl
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posted 11 April 2005 08:56 AM      Profile for skdadl     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I agree with both jeff house and Michelle, about both the Harris Tories and the Mulroney Tories.

Not that I expect that view to plug the dikes much longer.


From: gone | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Jimmy Brogan
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posted 11 April 2005 09:08 AM      Profile for Jimmy Brogan   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I don't think most voters in urban Ontario have forgotten Harris. On the contrary we live with the consequences of both his policies and his corruption everyday. Deteriorated schools, roads, and hospitals are a constant reminder of what the Tories wrought. If the Liberals wither the NDP can come up the middle and steal many urban ridings. There's never going to be a better time to take on both of our nemesis. And if not now, when?


With the Bloc winning 65 - 70 seats in Quebec, any party winning a majority is a slim chance at best.


From: The right choice - Iggy Thumbscrews for Liberal leader | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
Wilf Day
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posted 11 April 2005 09:19 AM      Profile for Wilf Day     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by jeff house:
I am one of those who thinks the Gomery inquiry hasn't revealed much we didn't already know, in theory if not with-names-attached.

Could be. I haven't read the transcripts, but there are two things Brault was talking about:

1. Tollgating, where the provincial bagman has a list of how much money you were paid by the government last year (for example, part-time crown prosecutors), and tries to see how grateful you may be. Some are more grateful than others. This smells bad, is perfectly legal, and has been done by Tories and Liberals for generations.

2. Kickbacks, where the bagman is in action BEFORE you get the money from the government, and gets you to promise a kickback in return for the contract. This is a criminal act.

We know Brault was tollgated. Whether he was incited to bribery is less clear.


From: Port Hope, Ontario | Registered: Oct 2002  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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Babbler # 518

posted 11 April 2005 09:31 AM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I think we are really really misreading the public mood if we try and argue that Stephen Harper is "just as bad". The guy's never held office. It's about as credible as linking Jack to Glen Clark.

Or, linking Jack to the Bob Rae government in Ontario, which was done repeatedly.

Harper and Martin lead the old, corrupt parties. Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien were birds of a feather.

The people of Canada should be angry at the Liberals. But that is no reason to vote for the other corrupt party.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Drinkmore
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Babbler # 7371

posted 11 April 2005 09:32 AM      Profile for Drinkmore     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by jeff house:
I am one of those who thinks the Gomery inquiry hasn't revealed much we didn't already know, in theory if not with-names-attached.

And Harper's Party doesn't even believe in campaign contribution rules at all. If they had their way, bag men would be bumping into one another as they roamed the halls of government.

In Ontario, the Harris Reformatories were corrupt to the core. One Cabinet insider (and candidate for National Leader of the Reformatories!) got $80,000.00 for a talent search for a government position. What he did for the $80,000.00 was to swivel his chair and point to the woman sitting next to him for the previous six years.

If there is any risk of a Harper 40% majority government, then we should not bother. Otherwise,
the Liberals have misgoverned us since about 1993, so away with them.



Exactly.

Didn't the details of this story, from CUPE, run in the Globe?

quote:
Tom Long, senior Conservative strategist, received $1.3 million through two of his companies. From all accounts, all Hydro One received in return was a memo recommending the utility deliberately underprice its stock to make the privatization more successful for investors – robbing citizens and taxpayers of its value.

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Drinkmore ]


From: the oyster to the eagle, from the swine to the tiger | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rob8305
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posted 11 April 2005 09:55 AM      Profile for Rob8305     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Does anyone have:

A) the final 1993 election polls when the Liberals won big? What was the Tory final number compared to popular vote? What was the liberal?
B) The 1984 landslide? What was thet tory final poll number/final vote, liberal final poll number/final vote, etc.

Thanks in advance.


From: Montrose | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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Babbler # 518

posted 11 April 2005 09:59 AM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Well, you are one wise fellow, Drinkmore!

And I had forgotten this one:

quote:
Mike Courley, former deputy finance minister and advisor to then premier Ernie Eves, (on behalf of either himself or his corporate entities) received a total of $3.7 million for his services. What did Hydro One have to show for this expense? A one-page e-mail, discussing the best ways to put forward arguments in favour of privatization.

Honestly, I do not think the Reformatories were any less systematic at looting the public purse than the Sponsorship Scandal Liberals were.


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Burns
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posted 11 April 2005 10:23 AM      Profile for Burns   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Not to be a raincloud - but to be a raincloud - I see a lot of people here falling into the same old NDP trap of thinking that because WE believe something everyone else will.

There's no evidence that people see any link between Harper and Harris. In fact, as their astronimical polling gains indicate, people see the Conservatives as the solution to the sponsorship problem.

I think accusations that the "tories are no better" will only resonate amongst complete cynics who don't believe the NDP are any better either (or people who only vote NDP).


From: ... is everything. Location! Location! Location! | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged
No Yards
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posted 11 April 2005 10:36 AM      Profile for No Yards   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Burns:
[QB]Jeff, this is way worse than anything the Tories were ever caught doing.

This depends on the definition of "caught doing".

First, technically speaking the Liberals have not be "caught" ... yet anyway.

Second, even assuming we are defining accusations as being caught, then the Harris Cons have done way worst ... Accuenture consultants, Hydro one, Ipperwash, Walkerton, Education, healthcare, MP's permenatly living in the US, outragious expense accounts, partisan advertizing dressed up as "public service announcments", toll highways, and so on .... at least this Liberal scandal didn't kill anyone.


From: Defending traditional marriage since June 28, 2005 | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged
josh
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posted 11 April 2005 10:41 AM      Profile for josh     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:

Canada's main opposition party is unlikely to let the minority Liberal government survive more than a month, senior Conservatives said on Monday.

Suddenly energized by a new poll that shows Liberal support in a freefall because of dramatic allegations of kickbacks from a federal spending program, the Conservatives are now looking at when, not whether, to pull the plug on the government.

"There's a window of three to four weeks," one Conservative strategist, who did not wish to be identified, told Reuters.

That would suggest an attempt to bring down the government in the first week, or possibly the first two weeks, of May, though senior Conservatives said nothing had been decided.


http://tinyurl.com/6ephy


From: the twilight zone between the U.S. and Canada | Registered: Aug 2002  |  IP: Logged
mary123
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posted 11 April 2005 10:42 AM      Profile for mary123     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yup Canadians need to be educated on what they are getting with the Cons. An expose on that short lived CPC candidate, Fraser Institite think tank lug and strategist for Belinda (aren't I cute) Stronach's campaign - namely Mike Harris is in order.

The CPC's deemed Canada's own version of Tom DeLay a worthy candidate for CPC leader and he only messed up because of romantic issue.
His previous corruption was not an issue.

Therefore Liberals -- corrupt.
CPC's even more corrupt.

The only alternative and solution is the NDP governs Canada.

Slogan:
Get rid of the stench, vote NDP.


From: ~~Canada - still God's greatest creation on the face of the earth~~ | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rufus Polson
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posted 11 April 2005 10:56 AM      Profile for Rufus Polson     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Burns may well be right.
While the Tories *are* just as corrupt as the Libs, it may be better not to campaign strongly on that claim.
Oh, mention it, sure--but it might be better to primarily be saying "OK, so you've got the disgustingly corrupt Liberals, or the scary looney Conservatives who seem determined to compete for the privilege of polishing George W. Bush's boots with their tongues. So, why weren't you voting NDP again? Worried that someone might actually try to help ordinary people for a change? Afraid of a party that actually believes in Canada? Oh, right, I remember, it's that the Liberals always say the NDP would manage your money badly. So, if you're still willing to believe a word they say, all I can say to that is at least the NDP wouldn't be either stealing it or giving it away to the Americans."

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Rufus Polson ]


From: Caithnard College | Registered: Nov 2002  |  IP: Logged
bodhitrees
rabble-rouser
Babbler # 8000

posted 11 April 2005 10:56 AM      Profile for bodhitrees        Edit/Delete Post
Funny how the Stronach fellow gets 53million a year now,and employs Mike Harris,hmmm could it be it's okay to get your "quo" after the"quid" once a pol. leaves office it's not graft?[as in quid pro quo].What , if anything did the conservatives do to alter laws to make Mr Stronach happy? Just thinking out loud,the press seems silent ,are not dots to be connected existing?
Since Gm and Ford and Diamler-c all buy from Magna autoparts is the truth that the download of tasks from union members the point?Perhaps the huge take by the Stronach crowd is like a reward by the Auto industry to aid in a defacto union busting or chilling affect,hmmmmm.

From: canada west | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged
sock puppet
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Babbler # 7739

posted 11 April 2005 11:00 AM      Profile for sock puppet   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Yup Canadians need to be educated on what they are getting with the Cons. An expose on that short lived CPC candidate, Fraser Institite think tank lug and strategist for Belinda (aren't I cute) Stronach's campaign - namely Mike Harris is in order.

Mike Harris?
As bit a criminal as he is, your aim is somewhat off-target.

I'm into revealing Steven Harper himself, particularly his long involvement with (and deep-pockets financing by) the Nine CrackpotConspirators.


From: toronto | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
Bookish Agrarian
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posted 11 April 2005 11:04 AM      Profile for Bookish Agrarian   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The Party needs to go after the weak spots of both the Fibs and the Cons, not just transfer one's problems to the other.

I say the NDP should run a "Liberal" campaign of sorts.
Stop yelling, wait for it...

The Conservatives are scary and will put this country through a huge upheavel and constant divisive fighting over social issues, and we know you can't trust the Liberals with your money, they just give it away, so vote NDP.


From: Home of this year's IPM | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
West Coast Greeny
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posted 11 April 2005 12:39 PM      Profile for West Coast Greeny     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I used the UBC site to simulate an election with the results equivilant to the polls, enjoy, because it took me an hour and a half to finish!!!!
British Columbia
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
NDP….37% (21) [13, 8]
CPC….29% (10) [2, 8]
LIB….27% (4) [2, 2]
OTH….8% (1) [0, 1]

3 Interesting Races:
North Okanagan-Shuswap (CPC 36, NDP 35, LIB 22)
Surrey North (IND 34, NDP 29, LIB 27)
S. Surrey- WR- Clov (CPC 33.3, LIB 32.7, NDP 28)

Alberta
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
CPC….70% (28) [28, 0]
NDP….13%
LIB….10%
OTH….7%

Not even CLOSE in any of the races, Edmonton-Strathcona is closest at a 22 pt spread, and while I doubt the CPC can get 70% ( ) support, they will sweep the province, no doubt.

Saskatchewan*
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
NDP….37% (8) [5, 3]
CPC….35% (5) [3,2]
LIB….22% (1) [1,0]
OTH….6%

2 Interesting Races
Souris-Moose Mtn. (NDP 30.8, CPC 30.7, OTH 22)
Prince Albert (CPC 39, CPC 38, LIB 20)

Manitoba*
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
NDP….37% (7) [4, 3]
CPC….35% (6) [5, 1]
LIB….22% (1) [0, 1]
OTH….6%

2 Interesting Races
St. Boniface (34 NDP, 31 LIB, 29 CPC)
Selkirk-Interlake (40 CPC, 39 NDP, 16 LIB)

Ontario
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
CPC…. 40% (64) [42, 22]
LIB…. 32% (24) [7, 17]
NDP…. 22% (18) [8, 10]
OTH…. 6%

3 Interesting Races (because I’m to tired to do 5 or 10)
Oshawa (CPC 38, NDP 36, LIB 22)
Guelph (CPC 35, LIB 32, NDP 25)
Beaches-East York (NDP 35.7, LIB 35.5, CPC 25)

Quebec
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
BLOC..50% (67) [64, 3]
CPC….18% (4) [0, 4]
LIB….15% (4) [0, 4]
NDP….11%
OTH….6%

3 Interesting Races
LaSalle-Emard (BQ 33, LIB 25, CPC 21, NDP 15)
Westmount-Ville Marie (CPC 25.3, LIB 25.1, NDP 23, BQ 17, GRN 10 )
St. Leonard-St. Michel (LIB 28, BQ 24, CPC 23, NDP 18)

Atlantic Canada
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
CPC….42% (11) [5, 6]
LIB….39% (13) [3, 10]
NDP….18% (1) [0,1]

3 Best NDP (Which coincidentally have 2 very good races)
Acadie-Bathurst (NB) (NDP 40, LIB 32, CPC 27)
Sackville- E Shore (NS) (CPC 37, NDP 34, LIB 28)
Halifax (NS) (LIB 37, NDP 31, CPC 31)

Northern Canada (using approximations)
Yukon (LIB 36, NDP 30, CPC 25, GRN 9)
NWT (NDP 43, LIB 29, CPC 22, GRN 6)
Nunavut (LIB 38, NDP 22, IND** 19, CPC 16, GRN 5)


FINAL RESULTS (took my 80 minutes)
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
CPC…..36% (128 seats) [85 safe, 43 marginal]
BQ…..11% (67 seats) [64 safe, 3 marginal]
NDP…..21% (56 seats) [31 safe, 25 marginal]
LIB…..25% (49 seats) [13 safe, 36 marginal]
GRN…..5%
OTH…..2% (1 IND) [marginal]

* Used same results for both Manitoba and Saskatchewan
** An independent Manitok Thompson finished 2nd in 2004

Suddenly the Liberals find themselves the 4th party of Canada

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]


From: Ewe of eh. | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged
Erstwhile
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posted 11 April 2005 12:43 PM      Profile for Erstwhile     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by sock puppet:

I'm into revealing Steven Harper himself, particularly his long involvement with (and deep-pockets financing by) the Nine CrackpotConspirators.



I honestly can't see most Canadians (a) knowing who the NCC is, or (b) caring that Harper worked for them. Sadly.


From: Deepest Darkest Saskabush | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 11 April 2005 07:03 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Yet another CTV/Globe Ipsos poll, conducted in the last few days. First look on CTV National news:

LIB 27
CON 30
NDP 19

...but over 80% think that the Gomery commission should be allowed to finish its work before an election. And only 24% say that the scandal will be the main issue to determine their vote.

I don't see complete numbers anywere yet...

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Albireo ]


From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 11 April 2005 07:05 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hmm - a direct swing of four points from Liberal to NDP from the weekend poll. Very, very interesting. I wonder where those three other Liberal points went? Not to the CPC it would seem.

[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: Screaming Lord Byron ]


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
Albireo
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posted 11 April 2005 07:08 PM      Profile for Albireo     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Some to the BQ, which is kickin' Liberal butt in Quebec. And Ipsos always over-estimates Greens & others.
From: --> . <-- | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
Screaming Lord Byron
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posted 11 April 2005 07:12 PM      Profile for Screaming Lord Byron     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Here's the CTV story.

Quebec - BQ 48, Liberal 18, stat tie in Ontario, Libs expect to be reduced to 60 seats.


From: Calgary | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged
MonkeyIslanderPolical23
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posted 11 April 2005 09:57 PM      Profile for MonkeyIslanderPolical23        Edit/Delete Post
What are the regional breakdowns for the Ipsos poll, when was it conducted, and how many did it servey?
From: Ontario | Registered: May 2004  |  IP: Logged
verbatim
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posted 11 April 2005 10:26 PM      Profile for verbatim   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Thanks for posting that analysis, Greeny. Interesting.
From: The People's Republic of Cook Street | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Jesse Hoffman
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posted 12 April 2005 07:02 PM      Profile for Jesse Hoffman     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
There appears to be a new Decima Reserch poll out today, but I can't find anything on it beyond that the Conservatives were at 32% and the Liberals 31%

Click.

quote:
OTTAWA --Three more polls suggest Liberal support plunged after damaging allegations at the federal sponsorship inquiry.

A survey released Tuesday by Decima Research put the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual dead heat.

The Conservatives were favoured by 32 per cent of respondents, compared with 31 per cent for Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals.

A week earlier, Decima pollsters had the Liberals out in front by a nine-point margin.

The poll of 1,025 people was conducted Thursday through Sunday following the release of devastating testimony by former Montreal ad executive Jean Brault who alleged kickbacks to Liberal officials in relation to the sponsorship program.



I'm sure the rest of the numbers will come out soon.

From: Peterborough, Ontario | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
Privateer
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posted 12 April 2005 08:27 PM      Profile for Privateer     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Jesse, a little further down in your link I found this from Leger:

quote:

Meanwhile, a Leger Marketing poll of 1,504 Canadians taken between last Friday and Monday showed Conservative support at 34 per cent, compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP stood at 18 per cent, while the Bloc Quebecois was at 13 per cent.
Leger said its poll, also released Tuesday, is accurate to within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The survey suggested that in Quebec, the Bloc outstripped the Liberals by a 53-20 margin.
In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals had 41 per cent support compared with the Tories' 35 per cent.

From: Haligonia | Registered: Dec 2002  |  IP: Logged
Rob8305
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posted 12 April 2005 10:52 PM      Profile for Rob8305     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
If it is only a 1-3 point Conservative lead, a Harper government is not at all assured and maybe I was wrong.

1-3 points is a dead heat right? I mean, no oen can write the liberal obiturary yet based on that right?


From: Montrose | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Doug
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posted 12 April 2005 11:24 PM      Profile for Doug   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Rob8305:
If it is only a 1-3 point Conservative lead, a Harper government is not at all assured and maybe I was wrong.

1-3 points is a dead heat right? I mean, no oen can write the liberal obiturary yet based on that right?


You can, however, write the obituary of Paul Martin's political career based on that.


From: Toronto, Canada | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
Rob8305
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posted 12 April 2005 11:33 PM      Profile for Rob8305     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
And an undistinguished and unhappy career, at that (as Prime Minister)
From: Montrose | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
WackAVole
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posted 13 April 2005 12:08 AM      Profile for WackAVole   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I'm new at caring about politics so my thinking may be way off on this. Please be gentle.

Is there any vote swapping initiates in Canada? I remember in the US election, lefties could trade votes between areas of the country that needed a few extra votes for votes in areas where the vote would be wasted.

IMHO, anything is better than CPC. So if a Lib is close to beating a CPC in an area then the NDP could coordinate to vote Lib to help them out. At least this way if CPC wins then maybe it can be a minority government. The real strategy is for everyone to know the polling numbers in their area and then to vote accordingly.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Vansterdam Kid
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posted 13 April 2005 02:55 AM      Profile for Vansterdam Kid   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The problem with that is that some Libs are just as right-wing as the Cons. I wouldn't be able to vote for Liberals Pat O'Brien, Tom Wappel or David Kilgour, I'd probably be more likely to vote for the Conservatives Belinda Stronach, Jim Prentice or Gerald Keddy over those three (although I have to point out the likelyhood of me doing that would be very remote as well -- I'd most likely prefer to "waste my vote").

As far as I know there isn't any vote swapping networks in Canada.

[ 13 April 2005: Message edited by: Vansterdam Kid ]


From: bleh.... | Registered: Apr 2004  |  IP: Logged
remind
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posted 13 April 2005 03:46 AM      Profile for remind     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
No helping out of the Liberals, just in case the CPC may get in, IMO. In fact, I do understand how an NDP can vote Liberal, and definitely NOT CPC, ever.

Even when I hated Dave Stupich, I would never have considered voting anything else.


From: "watching the tide roll away" | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
WackAVole
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posted 13 April 2005 01:40 PM      Profile for WackAVole   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I cannot justify voting NDP if they have no chance of winning in my riding. The practical reality is that if I want to support gay rights and weed then my vote is better spent on a liberal in a close lib/cpc race.

But I'm in Edmonton so it is really just academic to me. CPC cannot not win here.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 13 April 2005 01:43 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
If neither the Liberals, nor the NDP have a chance in your riding, then give your vote to whichever party you want to have the $1.75 a year per vote in federal funding. That way at least you can help them where they have a chance.
From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
Reality. Bites.
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posted 13 April 2005 01:44 PM      Profile for Reality. Bites.        Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by Vansterdam Kid:
I wouldn't be able to vote for Liberals Pat O'Brien, Tom Wappel or David Kilgour

Even if you wanted to, you wouldn't be able to vote for Kilgour or O'Brien as Liberals.


From: Gone for good | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged
CdnPolSci
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posted 13 April 2005 02:53 PM      Profile for CdnPolSci     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Liberals nosediving, NDP rising, CPC stagnant. That is the reporting on:

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/News/2005/04/13/pf-994559.html

If he CPC is stuck at 30% it would be logical to assume that the hardcore conservative vote is holding and the soft left Liberal vote is fleeing to the NDP and Greens.

In this scenario, the momentum is favouring the NDP, and Layton should maintain his attacks on the Liberal criminals to shake loose even more Liberal voters to the NDP.

Things are starting to look good for NDP advances at the expense of the Liberals. Now Layton must transform these gains into elected seats in Parliament.

More Liberal voters will come over to the NDP once Layton explains to them the details of Liberal criminality. These Liberal voters will most likely not consider switching over to the CPC because they have faithfully voted Liberal over the years. The GTA and Golden Horseshoe will be fertile for NDP gains.

Layton should clearly present the NDP as the only alternative for previous Liberal voters. According to recent polls it looks good for the NDP and now it must produce more NDP seats in Parliament.


From: Canada | Registered: Apr 2005  |  IP: Logged
sock puppet
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posted 13 April 2005 03:31 PM      Profile for sock puppet   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Layton should clearly present the NDP as the only alternative for change.

Both the Liberals and the CPC represent the current corrupt status quo.


From: toronto | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
mijawara
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posted 13 April 2005 03:37 PM      Profile for mijawara   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
This "attack the Liberals exclusively" line is worrisome, since it ignores the fact that, in many parts of the Prairies and British Columbia, NDP candidates are the alternative to Con incumbents, not Liberals. In Vancouver's suburbs and Saskatchewan ridings like Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre and Regina-Qu'Appelle, we should be going all-out against Harper & Co., not just Liberal sleaze.
From: Ottawa Centre | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged
Coyote
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posted 13 April 2005 04:34 PM      Profile for Coyote   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
True, but Liberal decline does help us with vote splits in Sask. and Man. ridings, as indicated by the fact that we now lead in the polls in both those provinces. I don't want to not go after the Cons, but the Lib split goes our way in the ridings with urban polls.
From: O’ for a good life, we just might have to weaken. | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged
sock puppet
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posted 13 April 2005 04:51 PM      Profile for sock puppet   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Indeed, it must be made clear that any strategic voting to be done must be done by Liberals this time out. It is their turn, they must vote NDP to stop the Harper Hun.
From: toronto | Registered: Dec 2004  |  IP: Logged
RP.
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posted 13 April 2005 06:21 PM      Profile for RP.     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by West Coast Greeny:

Suddenly the Liberals find themselves the 4th party of Canada
[ 11 April 2005: Message edited by: West Coast Greeny ]

Yes, that UBC simulator is fun. I keep on coming out with libs in 4th too.

quote:

Atlantic Canada
Pop Vote (Seats) [Safe, Marginal]
CPC….42% (11) [5, 6]
LIB….39% (13) [3, 10]
NDP….18% (1) [0,1]

3 Best NDP (Which coincidentally have 2 very good races)
Acadie-Bathurst (NB) (NDP 40, LIB 32, CPC 27)
Sackville- E Shore (NS) (CPC 37, NDP 34, LIB 28)
Halifax (NS) (LIB 37, NDP 31, CPC 31)


I think this example shows the downfall of doing it purely by the numbers. I couldn't imagine the NDP being shut out of NS.

Not that I think it will happen again this time, just remember that in 1997 there were what, 7 NDP seats in NS and NB?


From: I seem to be having tremendous difficulty with my lifestyle | Registered: Nov 2004  |  IP: Logged
Rob8305
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posted 13 April 2005 06:30 PM      Profile for Rob8305     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by RP.:

I think this example shows the downfall of doing it purely by the numbers. I couldn't imagine the NDP being shut out of NS.

Not that I think it will happen again this time, just remember that in 1997 there were what, 7 NDP seats in NS and NB?


Didn't the NDP sweep Atlantic Canada in 1997?


From: Montrose | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Stockholm
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posted 13 April 2005 07:53 PM      Profile for Stockholm     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For the NDP, 7 seats in Atlantic Canada was a sweep. The most the party had ever taken before in that region was 2 seats.
From: Toronto | Registered: Sep 2002  |  IP: Logged
mary123
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posted 13 April 2005 08:13 PM      Profile for mary123     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
NDP must attack both corrupt Liberlas and EVEN MORE CORRUPT CONS.

Why not get BOTH their soft votes.

Canadian voters know in their hearts the NDP are the alternative to the gLib and Con stench out there.

[ 13 April 2005: Message edited by: mary123 ]


From: ~~Canada - still God's greatest creation on the face of the earth~~ | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged
Political Junkie
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posted 13 April 2005 08:56 PM      Profile for Political Junkie     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I suppose one of the most accurate ways of doing it simply 'by the numbers' is by recording the poll data for every region over several months and then taking the average for a final seat distribution estimate.

I ran through all the June 2004 election results last night.

( I was confused a little since the results at: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/ don't seem to be accurate once compared to the results on other sites such as: http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/2004-results.html but anyway...)

I came up with a rough estimate of election 2005 seat distribution by looking at ones that were close and whether or not I thought they would be held by the Liberals for example in regards to what I call the 'TO' (Ticked-Off) factor.

My final projection is the Conservatives being in the neighborhood of having a least 12 seats over the Liberals.

The Bloc will gain 13 taking it to a record 67.
The NDP could pick up 12 and still have 7 swings out there that could go in their favour giving them 31 + ? seats.

So many other factors need to be taken into consideration aside from riding leads and close calls last year.

[ 13 April 2005: Message edited by: Political Junkie ]

[ 13 April 2005: Message edited by: Political Junkie ]

[ 13 April 2005: Message edited by: Political Junkie ]


From: BC, Canada | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged
WackAVole
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posted 14 April 2005 11:11 AM      Profile for WackAVole   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Originally posted by RealityBites:
If neither the Liberals, nor the NDP have a chance in your riding, then give your vote to whichever party you want to have the $1.75 a year per vote in federal funding. That way at least you can help them where they have a chance.

That is the point of vote-swapping arrangements, my original question.


From: Edmonton | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged

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