Well, there was a rumour circulating that Martin would appoint a small cabinet of super-loyal ministers, some holding double portfolios, just to steer the ship of state for a few months until the next election.
I think of the present cabinet the only two who we can safely say will be in the next cabinet are Anne McLellan and Ralph Goodale. I think Martin will clean house. John Turner failed to clean house after taking over in 1984 and that hurt him in the election campaign because it looked like the same old gang. I think Martin's advisers are very shrewd and will press hard for him to massively overhaul his cabinet.
I've heard some rumours pertaining to B.C. and Manitoba. I've heard David Anderson will be kept in Environment and will be promoted back to political minister for B.C. He may not remain in cabinet after the next election, but for now Martin wants to make sure the Liberals hold on to the Victoria seat. Herb Dhaliwal is expected to be booted, and Martin is expected to promote Quadra MP Stephen Owen to either Justice or Indian Affairs (since both Martin Cauchon and Robert Nault are expected to get dropped from cabinet).
I expect that lacklustre Veteran's Affairs Minister Ray Pagtakhan and Government Senate Leader Sharon Carstairs will get turfed as Manitoba's representatives in Cabinet. The smart money seems to be on Winnipeg South MP Reg Alcock to get a cabinet appointment, hopefully to something a little more senior to give the province more clout at the Cabinet table.
The wild card in Manitoba is Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray - there are still persistent rumours that he will be one of several possible ministers named from outside Parliament. My Liberal sources in Manitoba tell me that Martin is desperate to beef up his urban agenda cred and would like to have Murray on board. The problem with this scenario is that it's unlikely that Murray will suddenly resign as mayor while his 'New Deal' program is still in the works, and the fact that there doesn't appear to be an available Liberal seat at the moment.
I would expect to see a lot of new faces from Ontario.
[ 19 November 2003: Message edited by: ghoris ]