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Author Topic: Latest Polls
meades
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posted 19 June 2002 03:11 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I didn't think this was worth disrupting existing threads, and I figured this could be reused whenever new polls come out.

Anyway, I just saw the new Leger Marketing poll, and it's fairly interesting. This was taken before Alexa's resignation, mind you (between April 2nd and June 2nd), and it has some interesting news for the NDP.

Nationally, the NDP went down to 9% from 10%. In Ontario, (still federally, mind you) we went up from 9% to 11%. In Québec we went from 4% to 6% (highest level recorded by Leger in over four years). In Alberta, we're stuck at 6% as well, but in BC, the NDP have gone down to 11% from 13%. It gets worse. In the maritimes, our support was halved in the period of two months- from 22% to 11%, while Alexa was leader. And in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the NDP fell from 28% to 23%.

You can find more specifics here.

Sorry, no graphs. You'll have to picture it in your head, or if you've got tonnes of time on your hands, and are a total loser like me, you'll enter the data into Quatro Pro and see for yourself.

Federally, there's some other interesting developments. The Liberals are down to 41% from 44%, the Bloc went up to 10% from 9%, the tories went down to 15% from 16%, the Alliance to 18% from 13%, and Others will account for 8%, then and now.

In the Maritimes, I'm pretty surprised. The Liberals are up to 55% from 37%! I feel like I'm reading this poll backwards, but nope- despite hoping with all my heart. I have NO idea what could have caused this. if anyone does, please enlighten me because it's REALLY bugging me! Anyway, the tories went to 22% from 23%, the Alliance plumited to 5% from 12% (smooth move, Harper, you east-bashing hick) while Others is up to 7% from 5%.

In Québec, I'm pleasantly surprised this time! Lately we've seen the Péquistes taking an ass whoopin' in provincial polls, however luckily the same can't be said for their federal counterparts! The Bloc remains firmly at 37%, while the Liberals fell from 46% to meet the Bloc at 37%!!! As I said earlier, the NDP are up, and the Tories are up to 7% from 4%, while the Alliance is stuck at 2% (I guess those lazy Québécois leaches aren't noble enough to vote for The One Just Party. Haha, Harper, I hate you and delight with glee in all of your misery!). Other went up to 11% from 7%.

In Ontario, the Liberals went down to 53% from 56%, the Tories fell slightly to 17% from 19%, while the Alliance went up to 13% from 11%. Other went down one point to 5% from 6%.

In the Prairies, the Alliance is sweeping up. Up to 36% from 19%! NDP support is obviously bleeding off into the Alliance for some reason... The Liberals are down to 26% from 30%, and the Tories are up one to 18% from 17%. Others are also up one, to 17% from 16%.

In Alberta, the Liberals are getting killed. They're down to 19% from 30%! The Tories are down to 16% from 20%, while the Alliance is reclaiming ground at 55% from 34%. Others are down to 5% from 9%, and the NDP are holding their own as I stated before.

In BC, the changes are really not all that big. The Liberals down to 30% from 32%, the Alliance up to 31% from 20%, the Tories are down to 17% from 20%, and Others are also down, 11% from 14%.

And I have no clue about the Territories, because no polling companies give a damn about them, even if I do.

Anyway, check out that link- it's very interesting (unless of course you couldn't care less about polls, then you'll probably think mean things about me if you follow through and waste all that time looking at stuff that doesn't intrest you in the least. anyway...)! It's quite surprising the percentage of people who actually said "I will spoil my ballot" and I'm surprised they needed a separate category for it.


From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
spindoctor
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posted 19 June 2002 02:54 PM      Profile for spindoctor   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I guess if anything this just shows business as usual, doesn't it?

Alliance strong in the West, Libs and BQ duking it out in Quebec, Libs taking the Maritimes and Ontario and us and the Tories flailing around on the fringes....

The Liberal spike in the maritimes is interesting though and the Alliance increase in the prairies is pretty big. Did Stock cause them to drop that much or has Harper increased them that much?

Thanks for the linke!

Spindoctor


From: Kingston, Jamaica.....oh alright....Kingston, Ontario | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
Amy
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posted 19 June 2002 04:37 PM      Profile for Amy   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
question: who do people think could boost the ndp most nationally?
From: the whole town erupts and/ bursts into flame | Registered: Feb 2002  |  IP: Logged
spindoctor
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posted 19 June 2002 05:59 PM      Profile for spindoctor   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
question: who do people think could boost the ndp most nationally?

Jack Layton. From Ontario, fresh face, proven experience at getting things done and building coalitions.


From: Kingston, Jamaica.....oh alright....Kingston, Ontario | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
MJ
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posted 19 June 2002 06:41 PM      Profile for MJ     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Hey, I thought all you Alberta people were supporting Nystrom.
From: Around. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Sine Ziegler
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posted 19 June 2002 06:43 PM      Profile for Sine Ziegler     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Alberta is split thre ways from what I've gathered.

Spinnie spun over to Layton.


From: Calgary | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
animal
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posted 19 June 2002 06:46 PM      Profile for animal     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nystrom? Goodness, no!

Count me in as another Albertan who's leaning towards Layton.


From: the boreal forest | Registered: Nov 2001  |  IP: Logged
dc_toronto
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posted 19 June 2002 11:14 PM      Profile for dc_toronto     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nystrom Now! He will strenghten the party everywhere. If Layton is elected leader, the support in the prairies will crash, and the BC support will die as well. Believe me, I'm from toronto, and people don't like us anywhere except in toronto
From: Toronto | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marc
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posted 19 June 2002 11:32 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
For me, the NDP must recapture its prairie roots and then it will be able to move East. I think Nystrom, by being able to articulate a strong financial package for the NDP, will be able to take the voters who have left for the Alliance and will be able to regain its once strong foothold to build with the goal to become the next government.

As the current political landscape stands today, the Liberals are much too strong in Ontario to claim as our foothold...even with Layton as leader. The only way to become a threat to the Liberals is to present ourselves as the "government in waiting." And the only way we can do that is by having a bastion of support. Considering the Maritimes have such few seats and Québec will never vote for us the West is our best chance.

Layton would probably make a fabulous MP and likely a good leader 10 years down the road but I have trouble with someone going from a city councillor to a possible successor to Jean Chrétien. Federal politics, as Stockwell Day well knows, are an entirely different ballgame than civic or even provincial politics.

[ June 19, 2002: Message edited by: Marc ]


From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
agent007
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posted 19 June 2002 11:46 PM      Profile for agent007     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
I have trouble with someone going from a city councillor to a possible successor to Jean Chrétien. Federal politics, as Stockwell Day well knows, are an entirely different ballgame than civic or even provincial politics.

Marc, do remember a certain chap, by the name of Brian Mulroney? He never held any elected office prior to becoming Prime Minister!
Jack would make a great leader. But then, Bill Blaikie would be even better.

[darn UBB tags!]

[ June 19, 2002: Message edited by: agent007 ]


From: Niagara Falls ON | Registered: Aug 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marc
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posted 19 June 2002 11:58 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Marc, do remember a certain chap, by the name of Brian Mulroney? He never held any elected office prior to becoming Prime Minister!
Thanks for proving my point!

From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
IM
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posted 20 June 2002 12:47 AM      Profile for IM     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Re: The numbers from Atlantic Canada.

I think that the resurgence of the provincial liberals helped their federal wing in this poll. Latest polls from Nova Scotia put the Liberals way ahead in first, the NDP edging up, while the governing Tories languish in third place.

Also Harper's anti-Atlantic Canada comments would help the liberals and hurt the NDP. It will be interesting to see how Alexa's resignation affects these numbers.


From: ON | Registered: Mar 2002  |  IP: Logged
DrConway
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posted 20 June 2002 12:51 AM      Profile for DrConway     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Nystrom chef, anyone?
From: You shall not side with the great against the powerless. | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 20 June 2002 08:46 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Not me, thanks.

I like Layton best of the big three that will be running, and I think the statement that our numbers would fall in BC if he did become leader are simply erroneous. I'm pretty confident they'd improve, especially in metro areas such as Vancouver and Victoria (And let's be realistic- there are pretty much only two seats outside of those areas that the NDP could even hope to win, and those are Nelson Riis' old riding of Kamploops-Thompson-and-Highland-Valleys, and Skeena).

The differences between Layton and Day are really uncountable- for one, Layton just so happens not to be a fucking moron. I'd prefer to see a more-or-less outsider to established federal politics become leader, and I don't see how Layton's inexperience in the federal House of Commons would really be all that bad. Perhaps we'll actually have people trying to find solutions instead of scoring meaningless political points and engaging in pissing contests for the media. I know, I'm a dreamer...

[ June 20, 2002: Message edited by: meades ]


From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
hibachi
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posted 20 June 2002 09:02 AM      Profile for hibachi   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
The last NDP leader from Ontario was.. who?
Who was the most successful leader of the NDP as far as getting seats in the House is concerned?

From: Toronto, Ont. | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
jeff house
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posted 20 June 2002 01:17 PM      Profile for jeff house     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
1. Ed Broadbent

2. Ed Broadbent


From: toronto | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
hibachi
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posted 21 June 2002 01:47 AM      Profile for hibachi   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
So an Ontario candidate may not NECESSARILY be bad for the NDP, correct-ca?
From: Toronto, Ont. | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 21 June 2002 02:00 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Oh, what utter blaspheme! You take that back right now, or we'll have to lob you with the Ontario-centric stick!!!
From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
frandroid_atreides
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posted 21 June 2002 10:10 PM      Profile for frandroid_atreides   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
quote:
Considering the Maritimes have such few seats and Québec will never vote for us the West is our best chance.

No no no no no! The West is Not A Chance! If we wish to be a national party, we need to make a national bid! Anything less than that is doomed to failure!

1. What: win federal elections
2. How: elect the most MPs
3. Where: from everywhere.

Name one governement that came in power without Québec and Ontario. The West Alone Is No Option. Period. Especially since Québec is a total write-off.

It's not like we were even *holding* the West. The Alliance rules west of Kenora. It'll be easier to get half 40% MPs from across Canada than 100% MPs from the West.

quote:
Layton would probably make a fabulous MP and likely a good leader 10 years down the road but I have trouble with someone going from a city councillor to a possible successor to Jean Chrétien. Federal politics, as Stockwell Day well knows, are an entirely different ballgame than civic or even provincial politics.

Ralph Klein and Gordon Campbell were both mayors of the biggest cities in their province at some point. Campbell sweeped BC, and Klein has held onto power for a long time. Mike Harris was a pro GOLFER. I'm tired of people talking about Layton and his municipal experience as an impediment. Once Jack Layton is elected leader of the NDP, he will not be Jack Layton, Toronto councillor, but rather Jack Layton, the Leader of the NDP. Who talked about Campbell being an ex-mayor of Vancouver during the last B.C. elections? Ask Canadians what Trudeau did before becoming Justice minister. Not many people will know, and like, who cares? He fucking brought the country ahead of the world. The CV is not that important.

(Disclaimer: I'm not trying to make a pro-Layton argument, he's not even my candidate. I'm just really tired about the "councillor" argument.)


From: Toronto, Arrakis | Registered: Apr 2002  |  IP: Logged
Marc
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posted 21 June 2002 11:11 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I never said that the NDP should become a Western based party, I said that the NDP needs to re-establish its Western roots in order to ever have a chance to expand elsewhere.
quote:
Ralph Klein and Gordon Campbell were both mayors of the biggest cities in their province at some point.
As I said, federal politics are completely different from BOTH provincial and civic politics.
quote:
Once Jack Layton is elected leader of the NDP, he will not be Jack Layton, Toronto councillor, but rather Jack Layton, the Leader of the NDP.
The point is that he is NOT yet the Leader of the NDP and IMO the members of the NDP will make their decision, among other factors, with how much experience the candidates have. I personally believe that a leadership race is sort of a job interview and for me a person's experience needs to equal the position and I believe Mr. Layton's experience does not.

[ June 21, 2002: Message edited by: Marc ]


From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
vaudree
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posted 21 June 2002 11:20 PM      Profile for vaudree     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
I think a difference of 1% is still well within the margin of error. Ever asked yourself what questions were asked in these polls or how they were worded?
From: Just outside St. Boniface | Registered: Sep 2001  |  IP: Logged
meades
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posted 22 June 2002 09:51 AM      Profile for meades     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Too true, Vaudree, and also, we should remember these are just stupid polls. Really meaningless, especially since the samples they take really aren't all that big, compared to what they used to be.

But Marc, Fran also made a reference to Trudeau which I think is important. What did he do before he was in federal politics? He wrote for Cité Libre- He wasn't even in established politics! Yes still, it was only a few years after he was elected to Parliament that Trudeaumania began. Now, I'm certainly not claiming there could ever be a Laytonmania- I think that's well, well, well beyond the scope of reality. However not having been in the House yet will not automatically turn him into a clumsy fool. And using Stockwell Day as an argument simply won't work, because we all know Day was a fuckup in Provincial politics too (unless your definition of successful is just getting re-elected, in which case I think someone needs to reevaluate their priorities), yes, we've all seen his quotes from back in the days of the Klein government, and he wasn't no prize catch back then either. So lets not even try and argue around that, since the two aren't even comparable. I agree that experience is important, but I don't agree that experience in the House is any more valuable than experience in other fields with the public, or on the front lines.


From: Sault Ste. Marie | Registered: May 2001  |  IP: Logged
Marc
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posted 22 June 2002 02:02 PM      Profile for Marc     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
Trudeau became Justice Minister without any political experience, not leader of the Liberal Party. By the time he became leader he had a fair amount of federal political experience.
From: Calgary, AB | Registered: Apr 2001  |  IP: Logged
hibachi
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posted 22 June 2002 02:30 PM      Profile for hibachi   Author's Homepage     Send New Private Message      Edit/Delete Post
<ontariocentric>

I think us older folks can reassure ourselves and others that these days there is an almost zero probability of an anybodymania. People tend to think of the most negative things possible about a politician. "Yeah I know. Mike's a real asshole. But at least we knew where we stood with him." We stood by the wall at the side of the school while Mike playfully smashed our heads in. It is easy to keep your promises, when you promised to smash our heads in every day.

This may sound cynical, but how do we exploit this seemingly inherent dysfunctionality in the voting public?

1. Scapegoats /* Working Class, Poor */
2. Xenophobia /* Terrorists, Arabs, etc. */
3. Neophobia /* Social Policy */
4. We know what's best for you /* Apologetics */
5. If it doesn't kill you it only makes you stronger /* Justification by Faith */
6. Greed /* Economic Policy */
7. Crime and Punishment /* Media Relations */
8. Ruthlessness.......

The problem with the NDP is that there are too many nice people in it. After taking me to the cleaners, a former business associate told me that nice guys finish last. In the last conversation we ever had, I thanked him for the educational experience. A mentor in my early days told me it was always worth money to see if someone was an asshole.

</ontariocentric>


From: Toronto, Ont. | Registered: Jul 2001  |  IP: Logged

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